Realized P&L
+$2.15K
Unrealized P&L
+$506
Hit rate
76.9%
Resolved
434
Trades
2,152
lifetime
Volume
$130.3K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$61
Open exposure
$9.59K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 10-28 02:03
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 121 days
Categories
Other
60% 61% +$746
Tech
18% 70% +$1,244
Politics
14% 73% +$340
Sports
6% 73% -$217
Crypto
2% 62% +$32
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
68 active days in 12wk • peak 58 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? No +1,100 $879 86¢ $952 +$73 10-22 03:02
Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026? Yes +1,184 $983 79¢ $936 -$47 10-23 03:38
Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026? No +900 $603 78¢ $706 +$104 10-06 06:48
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30, 2027? Yes +1,300 $728 52¢ $676 -$52 10-26 19:48
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? Yes +1,271 $610 52¢ $661 +$51 09-10 19:27
Will no Millennium Prize Problem be solved by AI by December 31, 2027? Yes +1,718 $463 38¢ $653 +$189 10-26 21:50
Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027? Yes +1,426 $1,031 39¢ $555 -$476 10-14 23:07
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House No +600 $552 92¢ $555 +$3 09-22 20:11
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31? No +460 $399 96¢ $443 +$45 08-25 08:26
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2027? Yes +1,400 $95 30¢ $419 +$324 09-01 13:16
Anthropic IPO before 2027? Yes +400 $320 95¢ $380 +$60 08-14 22:44
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027? No +795 $181 37¢ $294 +$113 09-10 12:59
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026? No +290 $258 98¢ $284 +$26 10-20 10:54
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No +247 $234 98¢ $241 +$7 09-04 16:46
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Yes +350 $220 66¢ $229 +$9 10-17 04:04
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $12,000 by end of December? No -200 -$198 99¢ $-198 +$0 09-18 08:55
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes +11,765 $200 2¢ $176 -$24 05-31 10:32
will openais valuation hit high 1pt5t by december 31 574 287 No +192 $75 85¢ $164 +$88 09-01 21:24
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? No +335 $87 48¢ $161 +$74 08-20 20:45
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $750B and $1T at market close on IPO day? No +130 $116 99¢ $129 +$13 06-09 20:50
Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be less than $1T? No +170 $148 70¢ $120 -$28 05-28 15:57
Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? No +100 $85 95¢ $95 +$10 10-08 04:18
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31? Yes +271 $41 32¢ $85 +$45 05-19 23:29
Will Ulrich Siegmund be the next Minister-President of Sachsen-Anhalt? No +288 $218 29¢ $82 -$136 09-02 21:55
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $800B? Yes -103 -$99 70¢ $-72 +$26 09-09 18:32
Will Oura's market cap be at least $20B at market close on IPO day? No +70 $50 97¢ $68 +$18 09-18 16:31
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Yes +100 $66 68¢ $68 +$2 10-07 19:44
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? Yes +500 $103 14¢ $67 -$35 10-23 11:10
Israeli election results in a hung parliament? Yes — +96 $35 64¢ $62 +$26 10-09 01:51
Will the Hodge Conjecture be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI? Yes +285 $62 22¢ $61 -$1 09-10 11:51