Realized P&L
-$17.0K
Unrealized P&L
+$81
Hit rate
61.1%
Resolved
407
Trades
7,745
lifetime
Volume
$740.6K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$96
Open exposure
$2.38K
30 positions
First seen
2026-03-10
last 10-29 13:59
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 136 days
Categories
Politics
78% 45% -$9,412
Other
21% 35% -$7,426
Crypto
0% 52% -$146
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
81 active days in 12wk • peak 129 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No -1,800 -$1,408 82¢ $-1485 -$77 09-19 20:57
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? No +391 $138 60¢ $233 +$95 10-29 13:57
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes -200 -$132 86¢ $-171 -$39 09-19 05:49
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? No +96 $68 68¢ $65 -$3 10-28 12:33
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026? No +70 $52 72¢ $50 -$2 10-28 21:46
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? No +51 $33 84¢ $43 +$10 10-28 11:45
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? No +77 -$50 54¢ $41 +$91 10-29 08:20
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 22? Yes +79 $38 46¢ $37 -$1 10-26 13:08
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? Yes +50 $33 68¢ $34 +$1 10-28 12:50
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October? No +38 $18 89¢ $34 +$16 10-29 14:28
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No +44 $24 76¢ $33 +$9 10-29 09:22
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? Yes +44 $29 58¢ $26 -$3 10-27 16:55
Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by December 31? No +26 $13 87¢ $22 +$10 10-28 11:43
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes +44 $16 46¢ $20 +$5 10-29 09:02
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by November 30, 2026? Yes +56 $18 30¢ $17 $0 10-29 13:59
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes +16 -$5 82¢ $13 +$17 10-26 13:10
US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? Yes +44 $43 29¢ $12 -$30 10-28 12:00
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? Yes +17 $12 72¢ $12 +$0 10-26 19:58
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8? Yes +14 $10 82¢ $11 +$1 10-28 14:10
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? No +35 $13 30¢ $11 -$3 10-24 00:19
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in October? Yes +51 $6 6¢ $3 -$3 10-29 13:49
Next White House Press Secretary announced by December 31, 2026? No +6 $2 32¢ $2 $0 10-28 16:58
Iran leadership change by December 31? Yes +9 $8 14¢ $1 -$6 10-27 13:41
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by November 30? Yes +6 $1 18¢ $1 +$0 10-28 20:15
Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by December 31? Yes +4 $1 24¢ $1 +$0 10-27 15:28
Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by October 31? Yes +16 $5 6¢ $1 -$4 10-28 15:24
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31? Yes +40 $2 2¢ $1 -$1 10-26 19:32
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? Yes +26 -$4 2¢ $1 +$5 10-29 14:26
Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by October 31? Yes +15 $2 3¢ $0 -$2 10-27 11:35
Next White House Press Secretary announced by October 31, 2026? Yes +22 $4 2¢ $0 -$4 10-25 19:46