Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$934

Unrealized P&L

-$80

Hit rate

35.6%

Resolved

374

Trades

3,037

lifetime

Volume

$31.2K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$10

Open exposure

$185

16 positions

First seen

2026-06-23

last 10-27 17:33

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 68 days

Categories

Other

69% 32% -$734

Politics

17% 30% -$90

Sports

7% 13% -$71

Tech

3% 29% -$11

Crypto

2% 30% -$27

Pop-Culture

1% 100% +$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

77 active days in 12wk • peak 289 trades/day

Open positions (16) Resolved markets (12) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the Rhine River return to normal levels between October 1 and October 31, 2026?	No	+50	$41	88¢	$44	+$3	10-09 21:53
Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election?	No	+60	$41	64¢	$38	-$3	10-10 07:58
Will Gen.G win Worlds 2026?	No	+50	$28	56¢	$28	$0	10-25 18:52
Will the Democratic Party win the OH-07 House seat?	Yes	+20	$16	87¢	$17	+$2	08-08 03:22
Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain?	Yes	+100	$18	13¢	$13	-$5	10-08 22:43
Will Manchester City be relegated from the 2026-27 Premier League?	Yes	+25	$13	44¢	$11	-$2	10-25 00:51
Will no Millennium Prize Problem be solved by AI by December 31, 2027?	Yes	+20	$11	42¢	$8	-$2	09-09 22:47
will an ai lab announce another millennium prize solution by december 31 2027	No	+20	$10	42¢	$8	-$2	09-08 20:39
Ink FDV above $250M one day after launch?	Yes	+23	$13	20¢	$5	-$9	08-30 13:26
France declares state of emergency by October 31, 2026?	Yes	+206	$27	2¢	$3	-$24	10-18 20:47
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31?	Yes	+51	$14	6¢	$3	-$11	09-02 17:01
Will the Democratic Party win the OH-07 House seat?	No	+20	$12	13¢	$3	-$10	08-13 12:14
Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?	Yes	+12	$6	20¢	$2	-$3	09-04 12:39
Will Bernie endorse James Talarico for TX-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET?	Yes	+20	$9	5¢	$1	-$8	08-31 11:01
Will Michael Harris II win the 2026 NL Comeback Player of the Year award?	Yes	+11	$1	4¢	$0	-$1	08-31 02:43
Will any AI model reach 1575 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	No	+0	$5	76¢	$0	-$5	09-04 10:27

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer" get between 40 and 60 million views on week 1?	10	$484	618	618	+0	No	+$6	10-18 18:23
Will Eugen Tomac be the next Prime Minister of Romania?	14	$434	536	274	+262	No	+$3	09-03 14:45
France declares state of siege (martial law) by November 15, 2026?	2	$393	200	200	+0	open	—	10-18 19:33
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	2	$302	200	200	+0	open	—	10-24 20:32
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	4	$273	268	268	+0	No	+$20	10-25 22:10
Will Kyle Schwarber hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?	15	$257	282	202	+80	No	-$5	09-03 05:17
will any ai model reach a chatbot arena score of at least 1530 by december 31	4	$256	193	193	+0	Yes	-$14	08-15 21:36
Will any AI model reach 1580 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	15	$239	233	233	+0	open	—	08-28 14:16
Will BNB dip to $500 by December 31, 2026?	5	$228	134	134	+0	open	—	09-06 04:27
Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer" get between 60 and 80 million views on week 1?	9	$222	206	206	+0	Yes	+$0	10-18 13:48
Will a Chinese company have one of the top 3 AI models by December 31?	20	$219	245	245	+0	open	—	09-02 12:58
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	2	$218	155	155	+0	open	—	08-29 15:10
Will Patrick Roath be the Democratic nominee for MA-08?	20	$218	220	220	+0	No	-$1	09-01 23:58
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%?	4	$216	218	218	+0	No	+$12	10-24 23:05
Will Walt Weiss win the 2026 NL Manager of the Year?	21	$207	178	138	+40	open	—	08-31 17:23
Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 MLS Golden Boot?	6	$199	205	205	+0	open	—	09-06 23:59
Will the Republican Party win the MD-01 House seat?	2	$188	102	102	+0	open	—	08-31 10:41
Will the San Diego Padres clinch a spot in the 2026 MLB Postseason?	23	$185	214	214	+0	Yes	-$12	09-02 19:31
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	2	$180	100	100	+0	open	—	10-27 17:33
Will the UK’s 2026 inflation be between 3.5% and 3.9%?	5	$178	186	80	+106	open	—	10-20 09:54
Will Gladyz Butanda Macías win the 2027 Michoacán Governor Election?	8	$177	103	103	+0	open	—	09-10 12:01
Will any AI model reach 1575 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	10	$171	230	230	+0	open	—	09-04 10:27
Will there be no next Fable model (5.2+) release by October 31, 2026?	2	$170	100	100	+0	open	—	10-20 14:49
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening week in 2026?	6	$170	143	143	+0	open	—	09-02 14:15
Will no next Israeli Minister of Defense be appointed by February 28, 2027?	2	$169	208	208	+0	open	—	10-21 22:13
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?	10	$159	159	159	+0	open	—	08-29 08:08
Will Jynxzi, Ron and Los beat the Minecraft challenge by October 10?	2	$155	100	99	+1	Yes	+$8	10-08 08:13
Will Hyperliquid reach $90 by December 31, 2026?	7	$154	95	95	+0	Yes	-$2	09-02 19:40
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by December 31?	7	$152	113	113	+0	open	—	08-15 08:01
Will Mike Lindell win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election?	6	$148	130	130	+0	No	-$3	07-30 01:34

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-27 17:33:48	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	No	SELL	100	92¢	$92	0xd0e954…
10-27 12:03:02	Will the Republican Party win the NC-13 House seat?	No	SELL	50	39¢	$19	0x28df0d…
10-27 00:34:35	Will Moonshot be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	21¢	$4	0xd6d838…
10-26 17:51:35	Will Vitinha finish in the top 10 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	24	100¢	$24	0xddbe39…
10-26 14:14:14	Will no next Israeli Minister of National Security be appointed by February 28, 2027?	Yes	SELL	50	44¢	$22	0x7e1a65…
10-26 12:40:30	Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	80	83¢	$66	0xcb06e3…
10-26 12:09:30	Will no next Israeli Minister of Justice be appointed by February 28, 2027?	Yes	SELL	100	58¢	$58	0x986a00…
10-26 06:00:05	Will it snow in Indianapolis, IN by November 15?	No	SELL	20	55¢	$11	0xa13647…
10-26 04:46:53	Will Gregor Kobel (Dortmund) record the most clean sheets in the 2026-27 Bundesliga season?	Yes	SELL	20	56¢	$11	0x157ac0…
10-25 22:13:21	Will Meta be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?	No	BUY	20	52¢	$10	0x4eb670…
10-25 22:10:06	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	No	SELL	150	64¢	$96	0xe8f5b8…
10-25 21:43:48	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	No	BUY	100	88¢	$88	0xa0d54f…
10-25 21:17:50	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Connecticut gubernatorial election by 10%-15%?	No	BUY	21	79¢	$17	0x04c430…
10-25 20:02:08	Will David Beckham attend the 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony?	No	SELL	50	59¢	$30	0x3f8019…
10-25 19:44:26	Will there be at least 4800 measles cases in the U.S. by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	22	55¢	$12	0xf012ca…
10-25 18:52:24	Will Gen.G win Worlds 2026?	No	BUY	50	57¢	$28	0xc011f0…
10-25 18:32:08	Will Yossi Cohen be the next Israeli Minister of National Security?	Yes	BUY	50	7¢	$3	0x87cc65…
10-25 17:56:11	Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	80	76¢	$60	0x1de8df…
10-25 17:10:57	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut in the top 20 of the Text Arena leaderboard by June 30, 2027?	Yes	SELL	20	81¢	$16	0xcca6fb…
10-25 16:33:54	Will Miloš Vučević win the next Serbia presidential election?	Yes	BUY	60	24¢	$14	0x9900b0…
10-25 15:52:42	Will no next Israeli Minister of Justice be appointed by February 28, 2027?	Yes	BUY	100	43¢	$43	0x211c49…
10-25 15:00:41	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	No	BUY	150	53¢	$80	0x728c39…
10-25 14:33:32	Will no next Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs be appointed by February 28, 2027?	Yes	SELL	50	42¢	$21	0xdc2712…
10-25 14:11:11	Will the Republican Party win the NC-13 House seat?	No	BUY	45	35¢	$16	0x87e4f3…
10-25 14:11:11	Will the Republican Party win the NC-13 House seat?	No	BUY	5	35¢	$2	0x3794ed…
10-25 13:51:39	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	SELL	79	18¢	$15	0x2b3a6f…
10-25 13:46:09	Will Space Exploration Technologies’ market capitalization be between $2.00T and $2.25T at the end of October 2026?	No	SELL	40	75¢	$30	0x9b2345…
10-25 13:12:08	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 IL-02 House election by 45%-50%?	Yes	BUY	20	42¢	$8	0x5f8092…
10-25 13:09:08	Will Alibaba be the third-best AI lab at the end of November 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	13¢	$3	0x799167…
10-25 12:42:39	Will no next Israeli Minister of National Security be appointed by February 28, 2027?	Yes	BUY	50	40¢	$20	0x0f3803…
10-25 12:31:57	Will Space Exploration Technologies’ market capitalization be between $1.75T and $2.00T at the end of November 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	33¢	$7	0x8cb7cb…
10-25 12:31:39	Will Google be the third-best AI lab at the end of November 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	15¢	$4	0x5397eb…
10-25 12:00:17	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	100	49¢	$49	0xa8f005…
10-25 11:16:17	Will the Student List win 50% or more of the vote in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	20	19¢	$4	0xac5b23…
10-25 11:02:09	Will the Student List win 50% or more of the vote in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	20	18¢	$4	0x5e282c…
10-25 03:55:06	Will China’s CPI increase by between 0.7% and 0.8% over the 12 month period ending in October 2026?	Yes	BUY	33	45¢	$15	0xa2fb99…
10-25 02:41:35	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	79	17¢	$13	0x995e7a…
10-25 02:12:59	Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amapá?	Yes	BUY	102	68¢	$70	0x0c24ea…
10-25 00:51:30	Will Manchester City be relegated from the 2026-27 Premier League?	Yes	BUY	25	52¢	$13	0x7e127b…
10-24 23:28:15	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	Yes	SELL	118	43¢	$51	0xa4d00c…
10-24 23:19:38	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	Yes	BUY	118	40¢	$47	0x7395c9…
10-24 23:05:00	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%?	No	SELL	118	63¢	$74	0x74c2cd…
10-24 22:53:44	Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 25, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	89¢	$18	0xe7b054…
10-24 22:30:42	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%?	No	BUY	118	56¢	$66	0xe89f65…
10-24 22:22:32	Will Bezalel Smotrich be the next Israeli Minister of National Security?	Yes	BUY	55	10¢	$5	0xb42f8c…
10-24 22:02:53	Will no next Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs be appointed by February 28, 2027?	Yes	BUY	50	39¢	$20	0xe31b9b…
10-24 21:39:56	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%?	Yes	SELL	100	40¢	$40	0x86c900…
10-24 20:32:45	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	SELL	200	79¢	$158	0xb62216…
10-24 17:04:24	Will Moonshot be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	20¢	$4	0xb33a6d…
10-24 16:58:56	Will Claude go down fewer than 5 times in October?	No	SELL	40	69¢	$28	0xdbe0f6…
10-24 15:18:20	Will Claude go down fewer than 5 times in October?	No	BUY	40	65¢	$26	0xa4bb03…
10-24 14:08:54	Will Anthropic IPO by November 20, 2026?	No	BUY	100	78¢	$78	0xa3b6eb…
10-24 14:04:18	Will Thierry Henry attend the 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony?	No	BUY	50	4¢	$2	0xc3e1ed…
10-24 13:54:48	Will OpenAI have the third highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 19?	No	BUY	24	28¢	$7	0x93e892…
10-24 13:29:39	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%?	Yes	BUY	100	36¢	$36	0xf33b87…
10-24 13:24:23	Will there be at least 4800 measles cases in the U.S. by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	22	51¢	$12	0x5a636d…
10-24 12:27:21	Will Trump Airport become law this year?	Yes	SELL	20	7¢	$1	0x11d5d8…
10-24 11:08:24	Will OpenRouter process between 185T and 195T tokens the week of October 19?	No	BUY	20	30¢	$6	0x7b86c6…
10-24 11:08:24	Will OpenRouter process between 185T and 195T tokens the week of October 19?	No	BUY	0	30¢	$0	0x59695b…
10-24 06:15:38	Will Lionel Messi attend the 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony?	Yes	SELL	15	35¢	$5	0x6f6359…
10-24 06:00:14	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut in the top 20 of the Text Arena leaderboard by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	68¢	$14	0x8b9c03…
10-24 05:50:26	Will Lionel Messi attend the 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony?	Yes	SELL	35	35¢	$12	0xc75f9a…
10-24 01:52:59	Will Claude go down fewer than 5 times in October?	No	SELL	51	55¢	$28	0x65390a…
10-24 00:15:06	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	BUY	200	72¢	$144	0x629f99…
10-23 23:03:48	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	100	49¢	$49	0x6f000a…
10-23 22:49:50	Will Golden State Valkyries win the 2026 WNBA Finals?	Yes	SELL	50	23¢	$12	0x237965…
10-23 22:23:36	Will Apple’s market capitalization be between $5.50T and $6.00T at the end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	27¢	$5	0x20c79e…
10-23 08:15:50	Will Deft play for Nongshim RedForce in 2027?	Yes	SELL	11	91¢	$10	0xc92a2b…
10-23 07:44:11	Will Vitinha finish in the top 10 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	24	92¢	$22	0x992d2d…
10-23 07:42:30	Will Lionel Messi attend the 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony?	Yes	BUY	50	32¢	$16	0x3cd02a…
10-23 00:15:35	Will Marseille reach the 2027 UEFA Europa League quarterfinal?	Yes	BUY	21	17¢	$4	0x42487d…
10-22 20:48:53	Will Lazio qualify for the 2027-28 UEFA Champions League?	Yes	BUY	20	38¢	$8	0xfc1cea…
10-22 19:45:12	Will Cyprus win 2026-27 Nations League Group C2?	Yes	BUY	40	19¢	$8	0xd09993…
10-22 19:10:09	Will Jesse Love win the 2026 NASCAR O'Reilly Auto Parts Series championship?	No	BUY	29	57¢	$17	0xae8bc9…
10-22 19:10:08	Will Jesse Love win the 2026 NASCAR O'Reilly Auto Parts Series championship?	No	BUY	11	57¢	$6	0x1d23f2…
10-22 19:02:53	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	12	31¢	$4	0x62c69d…
10-22 18:58:48	Will Talarico and Paxton debate live by October 31?	No	SELL	50	89¢	$44	0x48288a…
10-22 15:47:20	Will Deft play for Nongshim RedForce in 2027?	Yes	BUY	11	86¢	$9	0xc9bcec…
10-22 15:26:26	Will Golden State Valkyries win the 2026 WNBA Finals?	Yes	BUY	50	21¢	$11	0x620625…
10-22 14:25:50	Will no next Israeli Minister of Justice be appointed by February 28, 2027?	Yes	SELL	50	41¢	$20	0x62aeba…
10-22 12:29:36	Will Evan Stewart be the 2026 D1 Receiving Yards Leader?	Yes	BUY	20	10¢	$2	0x24d793…
10-22 07:02:59	Will the median home value in San Francisco Metro be less than $1,062,000 on December 31?	Yes	SELL	40	64¢	$26	0x6be512…
10-22 02:38:03	Will the median home value in San Francisco Metro be less than $1,062,000 on December 31?	Yes	BUY	40	59¢	$24	0x097e57…
10-21 23:08:03	Will there be exactly 4 ChatGPT outages in October 2026?	No	SELL	23	96¢	$22	0x1e9691…
10-21 22:13:45	Will no next Israeli Minister of Defense be appointed by February 28, 2027?	Yes	SELL	208	42¢	$87	0x87319a…
10-21 19:51:23	Will Stoke City be promoted to Premier League?	Yes	BUY	20	9¢	$2	0xfa01e5…
10-21 17:00:39	Will Cameron Dickey be the 2026 D1 Rushing Yards Leader?	Yes	BUY	40	22¢	$9	0x2aae9c…
10-21 15:47:48	Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	100	18¢	$18	0xf06532…
10-21 14:29:15	Will David Beckham attend the 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony?	No	BUY	50	52¢	$26	0x818e6f…
10-20 18:52:11	Will Mike Malott fight Jack Della Maddalena next?	Yes	BUY	20	41¢	$8	0x1b7545…
10-20 18:21:53	Will Canada’s 2026 inflation be between 2.5% and 2.9%?	Yes	BUY	20	20¢	$4	0xc40935…
10-20 16:46:17	Will Polymarket mindshare hit 75% by December 31?	No	SELL	19	61¢	$12	0xfd2c5a…
10-20 16:29:45	Marseille public gathering ban effectively lifted by October 31?	No	BUY	40	4¢	$2	0x081cff…
10-20 14:49:05	Will there be no next Fable model (5.2+) release by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	100	88¢	$88	0x3146c5…
10-20 14:43:41	Will there be exactly 4 ChatGPT outages in October 2026?	No	BUY	23	78¢	$18	0xa1f790…
10-20 14:05:23	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	16¢	$16	0x5813ed…
10-20 11:27:42	Will the median home value in San Francisco Metro be at least $1,165,000 on December 31?	Yes	BUY	34	16¢	$5	0x9144bf…
10-20 11:27:42	Will the median home value in San Francisco Metro be at least $1,165,000 on December 31?	Yes	BUY	34	16¢	$5	0x90c095…
10-20 11:27:42	Will the median home value in San Francisco Metro be at least $1,165,000 on December 31?	Yes	BUY	10	16¢	$2	0x82983c…
10-20 11:27:42	Will the median home value in San Francisco Metro be at least $1,165,000 on December 31?	Yes	BUY	2	16¢	$0	0x36a1d5…