Afraid-Retrospect — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$485

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

57.7%

Resolved

Trades

4,508

lifetime

Volume

$195.9K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$43

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 08-09 04:21

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Politics

83% 33% +$456

Other

14% 50% +$29

Crypto

3% — —

Tech

0% — —

Sports

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

73 active days in 12wk • peak 123 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	55	$13.0K	23,693	21,682	+2,011	open	—	02-28 21:39
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27?	17	$7.8K	3,700	7,600	-3,900	open	—	05-25 23:35
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	33	$4.0K	5,402	3,354	+2,047	open	—	06-17 15:16
will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	27	$3.8K	2,235	2,479	-243	open	—	03-22 07:54
will uae strike iran by march 31	64	$3.7K	14,205	1,300	+12,905	open	—	03-17 09:29
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	25	$3.1K	3,413	4,490	-1,077	open	—	05-22 21:43
israel strikes iran by january 31 2026 894 994 453	32	$3.0K	6,937	4,348	+2,589	open	—	01-28 19:34
Iran closes its airspace by May 27?	21	$2.8K	2,588	2,577	+11	open	—	05-22 21:46
netanyahu out by march 31 854	12	$2.5K	2,694	0	+2,694	open	—	03-14 12:10
will saudi arabia strike iran by march 31	33	$2.4K	7,584	0	+7,584	open	—	03-09 21:49
hezbollah strike on israel by march 31 737 523	25	$2.2K	1,760	2,316	-556	open	—	02-28 10:36
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?	10	$2.1K	2,040	2,040	+0	open	—	05-25 23:33
israel x hezbollah ceasefire by april 15 2026	57	$2.1K	10,837	2,709	+8,127	open	—	04-15 22:10
will israel strike lebanon on january 6 2026	13	$2.1K	1,205	1,013	+192	open	—	01-06 06:33
will israel or the us target tehran 812	26	$2.1K	2,312	2,300	+12	open	—	02-28 11:10
iran leadership change by march 31	51	$2.1K	9,900	0	+9,900	open	—	03-29 17:47
iran strike on qatar by february 28 2026 334	17	$2.0K	2,922	2,185	+737	open	—	03-01 04:39
us downs another iranian drone by february 28	28	$2.0K	2,896	2,487	+409	open	—	02-28 12:48
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	56	$1.8K	7,980	6,995	+985	open	—	05-20 15:35
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?	16	$1.7K	2,000	2,000	+0	open	—	02-28 07:32
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	11	$1.7K	1,940	1,940	+0	open	—	04-07 23:16
will the us next strike iran on january 14 2026 et 369	97	$1.6K	5,359	2,620	+2,740	open	—	01-15 01:28
will iran close its airspace by july 15 20260609184136055	18	$1.6K	1,243	1,843	-600	open	—	06-17 16:26
will the kharg island oil terminal be hit by march 31	52	$1.5K	3,554	542	+3,013	open	—	03-22 07:09
Iran leadership change by March 13?	50	$1.5K	28,132	300	+27,832	open	—	03-15 16:44
will iran close its airspace by july 31 20260609184136056	21	$1.5K	1,696	1,573	+124	open	—	06-17 16:35
us strikes iran by january 18 2026 991	51	$1.5K	16,456	5,926	+10,530	open	—	01-17 10:21
will israel strike gaza on february 9 2026	33	$1.4K	1,380	1,201	+179	open	—	02-09 19:56
us strikes iran by january 16 2026 498	25	$1.4K	13,147	0	+13,147	open	—	01-16 15:00
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	7	$1.4K	1,600	1,590	+10	open	—	02-28 06:51

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-09 04:21:34	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	No	BUY	1,500	16¢	$240	0xf8b52c…
08-09 04:01:01	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	No	BUY	700	17¢	$119	0x9d5489…
08-08 21:40:54	megaquake by august 31 20260729155103111	Yes	BUY	380	7¢	$27	0x9247c1…
08-08 18:37:55	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by august 31 223	Yes	BUY	188	4¢	$8	0x8439a1…
08-06 17:41:41	israel closes its airspace by august 31 389	Yes	BUY	2,000	9¢	$180	0x9c99ab…
08-06 15:18:09	megaquake by august 31 20260729155103111	Yes	BUY	139	8¢	$11	0x9f65f9…
08-06 10:35:24	megaquake by august 31 20260729155103111	Yes	BUY	33	8¢	$3	0x5d974e…
08-06 08:09:02	will bitcoin reach 67pt5k in august 2026	No	BUY	10	40¢	$4	0xc98bd4…
08-06 07:56:33	will bitcoin reach 67pt5k in august 2026	No	BUY	88	40¢	$35	0x58d9af…
08-06 07:45:54	will bitcoin reach 67pt5k in august 2026	No	BUY	100	40¢	$40	0x4bcf6a…
08-06 07:29:44	will bitcoin reach 67pt5k in august 2026	No	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x37fed7…
08-06 06:57:30	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	Yes	SELL	100	34¢	$34	0x0a3f21…
08-06 02:51:09	will bitcoin dip to 60k august 3 9 2026	Yes	BUY	660	3¢	$23	0x4a08dd…
08-06 02:46:42	will bitcoin dip to 60k august 3 9 2026	Yes	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0xf59dd3…
08-06 02:44:32	will bitcoin dip to 60k august 3 9 2026	Yes	BUY	200	4¢	$7	0x0153dc…
08-06 01:53:20	will bitcoin dip to 60k august 3 9 2026	Yes	BUY	135	4¢	$5	0x60f56f…
08-06 00:54:20	will trump say rural health or rural healthcare during remarks in las vegas 20260803153421450	No	SELL	80	99¢	$79	0xd28c8d…
08-06 00:48:05	will trump say rural health or rural healthcare during remarks in las vegas 20260803153421450	No	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x9e90a7…
08-06 00:48:05	will trump say rural health or rural healthcare during remarks in las vegas 20260803153421450	No	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x1e8b45…
08-06 00:34:06	will bitcoin dip to 60k august 3 9 2026	Yes	BUY	5	4¢	$0	0x0b1c24…
08-06 00:23:06	will bitcoin dip to 60k august 3 9 2026	Yes	BUY	240	4¢	$10	0xdb8b74…
08-06 00:06:53	will bitcoin dip to 60k august 3 9 2026	Yes	BUY	125	4¢	$5	0x75619a…
08-06 00:05:11	will bitcoin dip to 60k august 3 9 2026	Yes	BUY	2	4¢	$0	0xf7c972…
08-05 22:07:21	will trump say refund during remarks in las vegas 20260804184741453	No	BUY	100	20¢	$20	0xfa2085…
08-05 22:00:45	will trump say trumprx during remarks in las vegas 20260804184635514	No	SELL	90	52¢	$47	0xa78cf3…
08-05 21:47:32	will bitcoin dip to 60k august 3 9 2026	Yes	BUY	118	4¢	$5	0x824ff8…
08-05 21:24:41	will bitcoin dip to 60k august 3 9 2026	Yes	BUY	10	4¢	$0	0xc503d3…
08-05 21:21:21	will bitcoin dip to 60k august 3 9 2026	Yes	BUY	1,000	5¢	$50	0xe73cd7…
08-05 21:10:44	will trump say trumprx during remarks in las vegas 20260804184635514	No	BUY	90	32¢	$29	0x00843e…
08-05 21:09:33	will trump say refund during remarks in las vegas 20260804184741453	No	BUY	50	31¢	$16	0xd22a4b…
08-05 21:02:24	will trump say rural health or rural healthcare during remarks in las vegas 20260803153421450	No	BUY	90	62¢	$56	0x737a0f…
08-05 20:59:53	will trump say refund during remarks in las vegas 20260804184741453	No	BUY	100	50¢	$50	0x5d1c28…
08-05 20:37:57	will trump say trumprx during remarks in las vegas 20260804184635514	Yes	BUY	115	69¢	$79	0x461d2a…
08-05 05:26:27	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	Yes	SELL	150	49¢	$74	0xe8476d…
08-05 04:38:30	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	Yes	SELL	100	49¢	$49	0x34c937…
08-05 00:05:35	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 9 20260727170733638	No	BUY	4	7¢	$0	0x16fbcb…
08-04 23:50:29	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 9 20260727170733638	No	BUY	1,000	7¢	$70	0xde4adb…
08-04 23:49:54	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	No	BUY	501	14¢	$70	0x799aaf…
08-04 23:49:35	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 9 20260727170733638	No	BUY	450	7¢	$32	0xb88ca0…
08-04 23:22:29	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	No	BUY	349	14¢	$49	0x35ec90…
08-04 23:10:09	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 9 20260727170733638	No	BUY	9	7¢	$1	0xb97de0…
08-04 22:45:39	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 9 20260727170733638	No	BUY	538	7¢	$38	0x9decb6…
08-04 22:37:26	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	No	BUY	150	14¢	$21	0x4be97d…
08-04 15:49:36	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	Yes	SELL	100	50¢	$50	0x68bc90…
08-04 14:11:14	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	Yes	SELL	28	54¢	$15	0x4eaaaf…
08-04 14:10:59	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	Yes	SELL	172	54¢	$93	0x85bfe1…
08-04 06:38:00	will wti reach 100 by august 3 2026	Yes	BUY	3,700	0¢	$16	0xac6182…
08-04 06:36:45	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 9 20260727170733638	No	SELL	800	12¢	$96	0x4ae810…
08-04 06:36:30	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 9 20260727170733638	No	SELL	1,000	12¢	$120	0xe88193…
08-04 01:50:00	will wti reach 100 by august 3 2026	Yes	BUY	11	1¢	$0	0xff82af…
08-04 01:32:08	will wti reach 90 by august 3 2026	Yes	BUY	435	7¢	$30	0xbc8bf6…
08-04 00:42:47	will wti reach 100 by august 3 2026	Yes	BUY	6,889	1¢	$69	0xda9b6f…
08-04 00:42:15	will wti reach 95 by august 3 2026	Yes	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0x66c184…
08-04 00:42:15	will wti reach 95 by august 3 2026	Yes	BUY	1	2¢	$0	0x34824a…
08-03 22:15:48	will wti reach 100 by august 3 2026	Yes	BUY	90	1¢	$1	0xfba001…
08-03 15:12:36	will wti reach 90 by august 3 2026	Yes	BUY	20	7¢	$1	0xeb6cea…
08-03 14:16:51	will wti reach 90 by august 3 2026	Yes	BUY	44	7¢	$3	0xe1f64e…
08-03 14:14:48	will wti reach 90 by august 3 2026	Yes	BUY	1	7¢	$0	0x0a0d9d…
08-03 14:14:21	will wti reach 90 by august 3 2026	Yes	BUY	280	10¢	$27	0x11baf4…
08-03 14:11:27	will wti reach 90 by august 3 2026	Yes	BUY	190	8¢	$15	0x878177…
08-02 23:33:21	will wti reach 100 by august 3 2026	Yes	BUY	1,200	4¢	$48	0x797c75…
08-02 21:43:15	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 15 2026	Yes	SELL	0	26¢	$0	0x24cf8f…
08-02 19:54:09	will iran target ukraine by august 31 2026 20260727234956917	Yes	BUY	1,304	4¢	$50	0xc45794…
08-02 15:15:05	will wti reach 105 by august 3 2026	Yes	BUY	900	2¢	$14	0xec5ba0…
08-02 15:14:44	will wti reach 105 by august 3 2026	Yes	BUY	4,000	2¢	$60	0x637953…
08-02 13:47:32	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 9 20260727170733638	No	BUY	2,300	12¢	$276	0x8f8984…
08-02 13:23:32	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	Yes	BUY	262	21¢	$55	0x7ab9e2…
08-02 13:17:32	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	Yes	BUY	1	21¢	$0	0x8f4da3…
08-02 13:16:47	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	Yes	BUY	520	21¢	$109	0x1ea807…
08-02 13:11:33	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	Yes	BUY	217	21¢	$46	0xbc573a…
08-02 12:03:36	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 4	No	BUY	173	4¢	$8	0xf06abc…
08-02 12:03:30	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 4	No	BUY	927	4¢	$42	0x033ee2…
08-02 12:02:51	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 4	No	BUY	3,000	5¢	$150	0x22cb48…
08-02 11:41:48	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 9 20260727170733638	No	BUY	500	13¢	$65	0x5c96cf…
08-02 11:41:12	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 9 20260727170733638	No	BUY	1,000	13¢	$130	0x06eb35…
08-02 10:28:59	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 15 2026	Yes	SELL	5	26¢	$1	0xd6cc99…
08-02 10:22:33	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 15 2026	Yes	SELL	195	26¢	$51	0x702319…
08-02 02:28:18	will wti reach 110 by august 3 2026	Yes	BUY	500	2¢	$12	0x2c9743…
08-02 02:09:50	israel closes its airspace by august 15	Yes	BUY	249	16¢	$40	0x794866…
08-02 02:09:39	israel closes its airspace by august 31 389	Yes	BUY	75	25¢	$19	0xc6e597…
08-02 02:07:21	israel closes its airspace by august 31 389	Yes	BUY	425	25¢	$106	0x4b7084…
08-01 23:36:02	will wti reach 105 by august 3 2026	Yes	BUY	300	5¢	$15	0x44abf2…
08-01 23:04:44	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 15 2026	Yes	BUY	85	11¢	$9	0xeaccf9…
08-01 23:01:29	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 15 2026	Yes	BUY	199	11¢	$22	0xdac663…
08-01 22:52:23	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 15 2026	Yes	BUY	225	11¢	$25	0xff58c2…
08-01 22:18:51	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 15 2026	Yes	BUY	19	11¢	$2	0xb643d8…
08-01 21:27:03	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 15 2026	Yes	BUY	130	11¢	$14	0x8ae73b…
08-01 20:20:08	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 1	Yes	BUY	100	98¢	$98	0x8f443e…
08-01 19:43:50	israel closes its airspace by august 15	Yes	SELL	176	34¢	$60	0x7af8d1…
08-01 19:41:29	israel closes its airspace by august 15	Yes	SELL	143	31¢	$44	0x3b2fa7…
08-01 19:41:29	israel closes its airspace by august 15	Yes	SELL	108	31¢	$33	0x1d9729…
08-01 19:37:41	israel closes its airspace by august 15	Yes	SELL	6	31¢	$2	0x241f4f…
08-01 19:34:38	israel closes its airspace by august 15	Yes	SELL	65	31¢	$20	0x9b21e7…
08-01 19:29:36	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 15 2026	Yes	BUY	134	11¢	$15	0xdb7910…
08-01 19:22:00	israel closes its airspace by august 15	Yes	SELL	32	31¢	$10	0x872830…
08-01 19:20:36	israel closes its airspace by august 15	Yes	SELL	66	31¢	$20	0xab5788…
08-01 19:17:27	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 15 2026	Yes	BUY	24	11¢	$3	0xbd2485…
08-01 19:14:24	israel closes its airspace by august 15	Yes	SELL	147	34¢	$50	0x189a3c…
08-01 19:12:17	israel closes its airspace by august 15	Yes	SELL	8	34¢	$3	0x8b18ec…
08-01 19:11:21	israel closes its airspace by august 15	Yes	SELL	474	34¢	$161	0x51fd72…