Fluffy-Eye — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$1.08K

Unrealized P&L

-$22

Hit rate

71.3%

Resolved

1,558

Trades

3,307

lifetime

Volume

$41.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$13

Open exposure

$377

5 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-12 21:47

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 156 days

Categories

Crypto

56% 66% +$102

Other

27% 37% -$1,228

Sports

14% 59% +$11

Politics

2% 30% +$43

Tech

0% 0% -$12

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

59 active days in 12wk • peak 65 trades/day

Open positions (5) Resolved markets (27) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31?	No	+200	$100	88¢	$176	+$76	05-23 06:02
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	+1,300	$147	6¢	$85	-$63	07-31 21:53
Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?	No	+210	$101	34¢	$71	-$29	08-25 07:38
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	-1,750	-$116	2¢	$-32	+$83	10-06 19:16
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	Yes	+390	$101	3¢	$12	-$89	05-18 17:28

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Aston Villa finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standings?	60	$1.6K	965	2,577	-1,612	Yes	-$1,250	05-18 11:31
Will Aston Villa win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League?	52	$1.1K	600	1,100	-500	Yes	+$95	05-20 20:27
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27?	34	$593	432	432	+0	Yes	+$163	05-27 21:26
Will Aston Villa finish in 2nd place in the 2025-26 English Premier League?	139	$552	4,763	5,057	-294	No	-$375	03-04 21:05
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	2	$481	280	280	+0	Yes	+$78	07-29 18:20
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion?	6	$472	270	270	+0	Yes	+$67	07-11 23:56
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	5	$451	300	300	+0	open	—	06-19 19:58
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	4	$420	450	450	+0	No	+$0	07-16 18:05
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?	4	$410	240	240	+0	open	—	07-21 08:00
will egypt reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120761	4	$381	280	280	+0	Yes	+$179	07-03 21:17
Will Bournemouth qualify for the League Phase of the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League?	6	$376	250	250	+0	No	+$124	05-24 17:04
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	4	$370	270	270	+0	Yes	+$170	06-20 07:21
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	26	$338	1,480	1,480	+0	No	-$61	07-18 20:30
Will Liverpool finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standings?	11	$324	764	139	+625	No	-$291	05-24 19:26
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	4	$324	200	380	-180	Yes	-$56	04-29 06:10
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?	6	$310	1,000	400	+600	No	-$94	04-29 07:39
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	3	$304	250	130	+120	Yes	-$96	07-20 10:40
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	10	$300	200	200	+0	No	+$100	06-14 22:04
Fed rate hike in 2026?	2	$300	200	200	+0	Yes	+$100	09-16 18:02
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25?	19	$293	440	210	+230	No	-$104	06-25 22:30
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	2	$282	180	180	+0	Yes	+$77	06-17 22:05
Will Morocco win on 2026-07-04?	2	$279	180	180	+0	Yes	+$81	07-04 19:00
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	14	$275	174	174	+0	Yes	+$69	06-21 05:31
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?	4	$249	240	240	+0	Yes	+$47	05-30 18:48
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	4	$237	1,800	500	+1,300	open	—	07-31 21:53
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	2	$228	130	130	+0	No	+$20	05-18 19:55
president trump to attend world cup final 20260608152749044	5	$226	191	71	+120	Yes	+$19	06-19 19:17
Will Aston Villa win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	66	$224	5,822	2,822	+3,000	No	-$51	02-19 21:57
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-25 10:30 UTC	4	$220	175	175	+0	Down	+$20	09-25 10:34
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	2	$219	120	120	+0	Yes	+$20	06-24 23:56

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-12 21:47:03	Will Brighton finish in the top 4 of the 2026-27 English Premier League season?	Yes	SELL	38	40¢	$15	0x13fc07…
10-11 13:19:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET	Up	BUY	13	76¢	$10	0xdaafb3…
10-11 13:07:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET	Down	BUY	11	87¢	$10	0x11401b…
10-11 12:52:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	Down	BUY	12	86¢	$10	0x152cf3…
10-10 08:14:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Down	SELL	12	4¢	$0	0x8b76e2…
10-10 08:13:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Down	BUY	12	86¢	$10	0x2295af…
10-10 08:07:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	Up	BUY	24	85¢	$20	0xfb9ecd…
10-10 07:52:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Down	BUY	25	80¢	$20	0x9ebe6f…
10-09 17:34:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Down	SELL	50	81¢	$41	0xc7a209…
10-09 17:33:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Down	BUY	51	99¢	$50	0x83f6da…
10-09 17:09:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET	Down	BUY	21	97¢	$20	0x3a13da…
10-09 12:28:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Down	BUY	21	95¢	$20	0xac58bb…
10-09 12:18:06	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-09 12:15 UTC	Down	BUY	22	92¢	$20	0x148477…
10-09 12:13:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	Down	BUY	21	94¢	$20	0x286195…
10-09 12:08:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	Up	BUY	22	91¢	$20	0xea130c…
10-09 11:59:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	Down	SELL	22	79¢	$17	0x68a7a3…
10-09 11:58:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	Down	BUY	22	91¢	$20	0xb4a538…
10-09 11:53:22	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-09 11:50 UTC	Down	BUY	21	97¢	$20	0xd6ab43…
10-09 11:28:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	Up	BUY	21	97¢	$20	0x98ca7b…
10-09 10:43:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	Down	BUY	21	97¢	$20	0x25ec92…
10-09 10:38:28	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-09 10:35 UTC	Down	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x99e7dd…
10-09 10:37:28	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-09 10:35 UTC	Down	BUY	11	91¢	$10	0xe02090…
10-09 10:23:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	Down	BUY	21	95¢	$20	0x04b4d5…
10-09 10:18:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	Down	BUY	22	93¢	$20	0x256c38…
10-09 10:04:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET	Up	BUY	21	95¢	$20	0x920ab6…
10-09 09:38:52	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-09 09:35 UTC	Down	BUY	21	94¢	$20	0xa954db…
10-09 09:33:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 9, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	Down	BUY	21	97¢	$20	0x3d7b9a…
10-08 22:28:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	Up	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0xc6b850…
10-08 22:19:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET	Up	BUY	21	95¢	$20	0x478cf6…
10-08 22:08:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET	Up	BUY	22	92¢	$20	0x6007f1…
10-08 21:47:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	Down	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x2fbc0d…
10-08 21:43:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	Down	BUY	22	93¢	$20	0x1b5bdd…
10-08 21:33:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	Down	BUY	23	86¢	$20	0x7cae71…
10-08 21:28:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	Down	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0xeb23c6…
10-08 21:23:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	Down	BUY	24	85¢	$20	0xb1eb3d…
10-08 21:18:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	Down	SELL	24	29¢	$7	0x749043…
10-08 21:17:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	Down	BUY	24	83¢	$20	0x90e790…
10-08 21:13:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Up	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0x63099f…
10-08 20:47:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET	Down	BUY	22	89¢	$20	0xe99eb0…
10-08 20:43:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	Up	BUY	24	85¢	$20	0xe6a3fd…
10-08 20:32:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	Down	BUY	22	89¢	$20	0x138cb7…
10-08 20:28:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	Up	BUY	21	96¢	$20	0xe04cff…
10-08 20:21:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	Down	BUY	21	95¢	$20	0x975433…
10-08 20:11:56	Will Brighton & Hove Albion win the 2026-27 UEFA Conference League Championship?	Yes	BUY	27	25¢	$7	0xff94e3…
10-08 20:08:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	Up	BUY	21	97¢	$20	0x549e6f…
10-08 20:03:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	Up	BUY	22	93¢	$20	0x3199db…
10-08 07:48:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET	Down	BUY	22	89¢	$20	0x564e43…
10-08 07:27:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET	Down	BUY	21	97¢	$20	0x70e20d…
10-07 21:23:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	Up	BUY	21	94¢	$20	0x9e690e…
10-07 21:18:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	Up	BUY	21	97¢	$20	0x36d84d…
10-07 21:13:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Down	BUY	21	96¢	$20	0x4f9ca7…
10-07 20:58:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	Up	BUY	22	93¢	$20	0x04ae8e…
10-07 20:48:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET	Down	BUY	22	89¢	$20	0xe62cdc…
10-07 20:42:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	Up	BUY	21	96¢	$20	0xd58146…
10-07 20:37:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Down	BUY	21	95¢	$20	0x91143b…
10-07 20:32:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	Down	BUY	21	95¢	$20	0x76c905…
10-07 20:08:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET	Up	BUY	23	87¢	$20	0xbe95c1…
10-07 16:48:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	Down	BUY	22	93¢	$20	0xc95497…
10-07 16:08:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	Up	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x705918…
10-07 16:04:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	Up	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0xcad2db…
10-07 15:59:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	Up	SELL	22	96¢	$21	0x38525b…
10-07 15:59:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	22	93¢	$20	0x6d704a…
10-07 15:57:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	Down	BUY	13	78¢	$10	0x023ce7…
10-07 15:38:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	Up	SELL	21	53¢	$11	0xa93710…
10-07 15:38:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	Up	BUY	21	94¢	$20	0x07d0c3…
10-07 15:29:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET	Up	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0x381989…
10-07 15:13:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	Up	BUY	21	95¢	$20	0xb06937…
10-07 15:08:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	Down	BUY	21	97¢	$20	0xb7e25a…
10-07 15:03:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	Down	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0xe08d0c…
10-07 14:58:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	Down	BUY	22	92¢	$20	0xe8e022…
10-07 14:54:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	Up	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0xcf0d7b…
10-07 14:43:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Down	BUY	22	92¢	$20	0xaae36d…
10-07 14:33:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Up	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0xb664da…
10-07 14:22:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	Up	BUY	21	95¢	$20	0x5df21b…
10-07 14:18:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Down	BUY	21	95¢	$20	0xf219db…
10-07 14:14:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Down	BUY	21	94¢	$20	0xb7da78…
10-07 14:04:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Down	SELL	24	76¢	$18	0x16b782…
10-07 14:03:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Down	BUY	24	83¢	$20	0x2f1e34…
10-07 13:44:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Down	SELL	26	69¢	$18	0xd201ad…
10-07 13:44:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Down	BUY	26	78¢	$20	0xdde73e…
10-07 13:33:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Up	BUY	21	97¢	$20	0xd9bae5…
10-07 13:28:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET	Down	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0xe8bac0…
10-07 13:23:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET	Down	BUY	22	93¢	$20	0x6bd9fb…
10-06 19:16:11	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	500	3¢	$16	0xe902cf…
10-06 16:09:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	Down	SELL	21	77¢	$16	0x0621e4…
10-06 16:09:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	Down	BUY	21	95¢	$20	0xb5603e…
10-06 16:08:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	Up	SELL	24	55¢	$13	0xa80f98…
10-06 16:08:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	Up	BUY	24	85¢	$20	0x0bcb02…
10-06 15:49:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	Down	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0x1c37a3…
10-06 15:48:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	Down	BUY	22	89¢	$20	0xe416fb…
10-06 15:44:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	Down	BUY	21	97¢	$20	0x0557c9…
10-06 15:28:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET	Down	BUY	52	96¢	$50	0xb30414…
10-06 15:23:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	Down	BUY	21	97¢	$20	0xf5ee6e…
10-06 15:18:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	Down	BUY	22	90¢	$20	0x0bc4ab…
10-06 15:14:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	Up	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0x8290e6…
10-06 15:04:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	Up	BUY	22	91¢	$20	0xb11419…
10-06 14:38:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Up	BUY	21	94¢	$20	0x23cef9…
10-06 14:33:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Down	BUY	27	74¢	$20	0x9eb159…
10-06 13:53:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 6, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	Up	BUY	22	89¢	$20	0xb75fc0…
10-05 21:24:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 5, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	Up	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0x815e99…