Extraneous-Paperwork — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$1.23K

Unrealized P&L

-$13

Hit rate

55.7%

Resolved

2,933

Trades

7,311

lifetime

Volume

$62.9K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$232

6 positions

First seen

2026-03-13

last 10-27 23:01

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 170 days

Categories

Crypto

94% 54% +$1,322

Other

5% 61% -$138

Sports

1% 95% +$36

Politics

0% 83% -$7

Tech

0% 100% +$19

Pop-Culture

0% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

75 active days in 12wk • peak 124 trades/day

Open positions (6) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	+100	$94	96¢	$96	+$2	10-27 08:21
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	+100	$75	76¢	$76	+$2	10-27 13:15
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	-30	-$8	90¢	$-27	-$18	07-08 15:46
Will Perplexity AI be acquired before 2027?	No	+18	$15	93¢	$17	+$2	06-10 03:11
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	-10	-$10	96¢	$-10	+$0	08-25 20:40
Will 7-8 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?	No	-6	-$6	99¢	$-6	$0	08-24 13:36

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	4	$386	200	200	+0	No	+$14	05-07 05:54
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?	3	$280	211	211	+0	open	—	07-08 15:50
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	5	$268	240	240	+0	Down	+$25	10-26 16:21
bitcoin up or down august 29 2026 7am et	9	$248	250	250	+0	Down	+$7	08-29 11:45
solana up or down august 1 2026 11am et	1	$220	380	0	+380	Down	+$160	08-01 15:01
BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-10-04 08:00 UTC	3	$160	240	120	+120	Up	-$54	10-04 08:03
XRP Up/Down 4h · 2026-07-19 12:00 UTC	9	$147	220	0	+220	Up	-$87	07-19 15:51
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	3	$141	280	0	+280	Down	-$141	10-24 04:07
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 12AM ET	12	$139	140	130	+10	Up	+$6	10-26 04:01
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	5	$136	120	70	+50	No	+$4	05-18 01:09
bitcoin up or down september 25 2026 7am et	11	$134	200	0	+200	Down	+$66	09-25 11:51
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026?	2	$129	80	80	+0	open	—	07-02 03:04
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$123	67	67	+0	No	+$2	07-02 03:06
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	2	$121	240	0	+240	Down	+$119	10-19 08:00
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	2	$121	240	0	+240	Down	-$121	10-22 08:02
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET	2	$121	240	0	+240	Up	-$121	10-27 21:31
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	3	$121	240	0	+240	Up	+$119	10-25 12:03
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	4	$121	240	0	+240	Up	-$121	10-21 16:04
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	4	$121	240	0	+240	Up	+$119	10-16 04:00
BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-10-04 12:00 UTC	5	$121	240	0	+240	Down	+$119	10-04 12:01
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 1, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	2	$120	240	0	+240	Down	-$120	09-01 16:01
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 17, 4AM ET	8	$118	120	60	+60	Down	+$55	10-17 08:52
solana up or down august 29 2026 2pm et	7	$111	95	94	+1	Up	+$15	08-29 18:03
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-12 14:40 UTC	3	$105	56	56	+0	Down	+$5	06-12 14:45
BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-08-30 00:00 UTC	2	$105	200	0	+200	Down	+$95	08-30 00:00
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 20, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET	1	$104	180	0	+180	Up	-$104	09-20 22:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 18, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	4	$103	202	0	+202	Up	-$103	09-18 12:05
BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-08-02 08:00 UTC	12	$103	200	0	+200	Down	+$97	08-02 08:11
bitcoin up or down august 21 2026 3am et	5	$102	200	0	+200	Up	-$102	08-21 07:00
BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-07-17 20:00 UTC	8	$102	199	0	+199	Down	+$97	07-17 20:56

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-27 23:01:05	XRP Up or Down - October 27, 7PM ET	Down	BUY	1	52¢	$0	0xf51f36…
10-27 23:01:05	XRP Up or Down - October 27, 7PM ET	Down	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0x7b8f7a…
10-27 23:00:12	XRP Up or Down - October 27, 7PM ET	Down	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x6b0a29…
10-27 23:00:12	XRP Up or Down - October 27, 7PM ET	Down	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x4a4d8d…
10-27 22:59:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6PM ET	Down	BUY	2	63¢	$2	0x11789c…
10-27 22:58:53	Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 6PM ET	Down	BUY	5	79¢	$4	0xdd543d…
10-27 22:58:53	Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 6PM ET	Down	BUY	5	79¢	$4	0x72661b…
10-27 21:31:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET	Down	BUY	120	50¢	$60	0xe3edf2…
10-27 20:08:59	XRP Up or Down - October 27, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET	Down	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0xfe052e…
10-27 20:04:51	Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET	Down	BUY	40	51¢	$20	0x603393…
10-27 20:00:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET	Down	BUY	120	51¢	$61	0xdf164d…
10-27 17:06:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 1PM ET	Down	BUY	3	59¢	$2	0xcfa764…
10-27 17:06:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 1PM ET	Down	BUY	27	59¢	$16	0xc750ee…
10-27 17:06:56	XRP Up or Down - October 27, 1PM ET	Down	BUY	10	56¢	$6	0xdbf331…
10-27 17:06:18	Solana Up or Down - October 27, 1PM ET	Down	BUY	40	51¢	$20	0x0959d7…
10-27 17:04:50	Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 1PM ET	Down	BUY	0	60¢	$0	0xf762f8…
10-27 17:04:50	Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 1PM ET	Down	BUY	17	60¢	$10	0x1d17f2…
10-27 17:04:45	Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 1PM ET	Down	BUY	2	60¢	$2	0x23f8c9…
10-27 16:01:06	BNB Up or Down - October 27, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	Down	BUY	10	45¢	$4	0xcce2d3…
10-27 16:00:21	Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	Down	BUY	20	49¢	$10	0x06eb08…
10-27 16:00:17	Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 12PM ET	Down	BUY	1	51¢	$0	0xe487ad…
10-27 16:00:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 12PM ET	Down	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x96024f…
10-27 16:00:17	Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 12PM ET	Down	BUY	19	51¢	$10	0x49e03d…
10-27 16:00:14	Solana Up or Down - October 27, 12PM ET	Down	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0xa7ba83…
10-27 16:00:14	XRP Up or Down - October 27, 12PM ET	Down	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0xa29f61…
10-27 16:00:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	Down	BUY	60	50¢	$30	0x749d54…
10-27 13:15:24	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0x984178…
10-27 13:13:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 9AM ET	Down	BUY	10	64¢	$6	0x3fdbb0…
10-27 12:15:32	Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xc62a6a…
10-27 12:15:27	Solana Up or Down - October 27, 8AM ET	Down	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0x7c9a64…
10-27 11:55:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 7AM ET	Down	BUY	3	85¢	$3	0x456231…
10-27 11:55:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 7AM ET	Down	BUY	7	85¢	$6	0x6a3d51…
10-27 10:41:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6AM ET	Up	BUY	8	70¢	$6	0x922774…
10-27 10:41:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 6AM ET	Up	BUY	2	70¢	$1	0x851cee…
10-27 10:01:27	Solana Up or Down - October 27, 6AM ET	Up	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0x145e2b…
10-27 10:01:05	Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 6AM ET	Up	BUY	17	51¢	$8	0x8f4ea9…
10-27 10:01:05	Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 6AM ET	Up	BUY	0	51¢	$0	0x38acb0…
10-27 10:00:15	XRP Up or Down - October 27, 6AM ET	Up	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0x386eaf…
10-27 09:55:44	Ethereum Up or Down - October 27, 6AM ET	Up	BUY	3	51¢	$1	0xfe6604…
10-27 09:28:20	BNB Up or Down - October 27, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0x7b4147…
10-27 09:05:56	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	60	75¢	$45	0xa5e146…
10-27 09:05:56	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	9	75¢	$7	0xa5cf17…
10-27 09:05:56	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	30	75¢	$22	0x7ed37b…
10-27 09:00:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 5AM ET	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xefd7da…
10-27 09:00:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 5AM ET	Down	BUY	8	50¢	$4	0x21dacc…
10-27 08:59:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 5AM ET	Down	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0xad1a71…
10-27 08:37:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 4AM ET	Down	BUY	7	65¢	$5	0x83a1df…
10-27 08:37:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 4AM ET	Down	BUY	3	65¢	$2	0xff1f3f…
10-27 08:28:09	BNB Up or Down - October 27, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0xd1dd2f…
10-27 08:28:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	Up	BUY	1	51¢	$0	0xc6d66a…
10-27 08:27:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	Up	BUY	59	51¢	$30	0x70cb3b…
10-27 08:24:42	Solana Up or Down - October 27, 4AM ET	Down	BUY	10	61¢	$6	0x0111f6…
10-27 08:21:15	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	100	94¢	$94	0x0d94ba…
10-27 08:07:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	Up	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0xb472e4…
10-27 08:02:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	Up	BUY	58	60¢	$35	0x9542e1…
10-27 05:54:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	10	75¢	$8	0x5ebab9…
10-27 05:08:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 1AM ET	Up	BUY	10	64¢	$6	0x7650b4…
10-27 04:24:09	BNB Up or Down - October 27, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xa8a021…
10-27 04:22:03	BNB Up or Down - October 27, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0xbe168b…
10-27 04:16:57	BNB Up or Down - October 27, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x94c16f…
10-27 04:01:32	Solana Up or Down - October 27, 12AM ET	Up	BUY	40	51¢	$20	0xd71d3a…
10-27 04:01:21	Solana Up or Down - October 27, 12AM ET	Up	BUY	40	52¢	$21	0x74707d…
10-27 03:59:41	BNB Up or Down - October 27, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	8	50¢	$4	0x3c0507…
10-27 03:02:06	XRP Up or Down - October 26, 11PM ET	Up	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0x05c1b6…
10-27 03:01:24	Ethereum Up or Down - October 26, 11PM ET	Up	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0x4a4e0d…
10-27 03:00:36	Solana Up or Down - October 26, 11PM ET	Up	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0x3d772c…
10-27 03:00:29	Solana Up or Down - October 26, 11PM ET	Up	BUY	20	52¢	$10	0xe510d6…
10-27 02:59:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 11PM ET	Up	BUY	30	50¢	$15	0x672aa5…
10-27 02:17:54	BNB Up or Down - October 26, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x20e1a0…
10-27 02:15:32	BNB Up or Down - October 26, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x58ce06…
10-27 02:01:26	XRP Up or Down - October 26, 10PM ET	Up	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0x132c1d…
10-27 02:01:11	Solana Up or Down - October 26, 10PM ET	Up	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0xbbbfd0…
10-27 01:01:42	XRP Up or Down - October 26, 9PM ET	Down	SELL	10	52¢	$5	0xf0fbc1…
10-27 01:01:20	Ethereum Up or Down - October 26, 9PM ET	Down	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0x382767…
10-27 01:00:27	XRP Up or Down - October 26, 9PM ET	Down	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0x02e1b4…
10-27 01:00:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 9PM ET	Down	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0xeaae12…
10-27 01:00:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 9PM ET	Down	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0xe4039f…
10-27 01:00:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 9PM ET	Down	BUY	5	50¢	$3	0xc5bb57…
10-27 01:00:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 9PM ET	Down	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x8fbb8e…
10-27 01:00:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 9PM ET	Down	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x34f89b…
10-27 01:00:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 9PM ET	Down	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x2c4577…
10-27 00:01:27	Ethereum Up or Down - October 26, 8PM ET	Down	BUY	40	50¢	$20	0xae4886…
10-26 23:24:56	Ethereum Up or Down - October 26, 7PM ET	Down	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0xd8a849…
10-26 23:01:03	Ethereum Up or Down - October 26, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET	Up	BUY	12	17¢	$2	0xe27e59…
10-26 23:00:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET	Up	BUY	80	38¢	$30	0xda5d78…
10-26 23:00:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET	Up	BUY	20	38¢	$8	0xbd28af…
10-26 17:00:50	BNB Up or Down - October 26, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	Down	BUY	15	51¢	$8	0x0fc8e8…
10-26 17:00:36	XRP Up or Down - October 26, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	Down	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x7d22ca…
10-26 17:00:35	BNB Up or Down - October 26, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	Down	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0x0f212c…
10-26 16:26:51	Ethereum Up or Down - October 26, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	Down	SELL	40	67¢	$27	0xc17aa1…
10-26 16:21:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	Down	SELL	215	61¢	$131	0x7d95d0…
10-26 16:21:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	Down	SELL	25	61¢	$15	0x1fe294…
10-26 16:02:18	Ethereum Up or Down - October 26, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	Down	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0xdef24f…
10-26 16:02:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 12PM ET	Down	BUY	30	50¢	$15	0xf68622…
10-26 16:00:14	Ethereum Up or Down - October 26, 12PM ET	Down	BUY	17	51¢	$9	0xdfebcf…
10-26 16:00:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	Down	BUY	120	50¢	$60	0xce97ed…
10-26 16:00:14	XRP Up or Down - October 26, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	Down	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0xc0e430…
10-26 16:00:12	Ethereum Up or Down - October 26, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	Down	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0xcbd2ee…
10-26 16:00:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	Down	BUY	22	51¢	$11	0x5675af…
10-26 16:00:08	Ethereum Up or Down - October 26, 12PM ET	Down	BUY	3	51¢	$2	0xad38c0…