Extraneous-Paperwork — Polymarket

Realized P&L (90d)

-$1.19K

Unrealized P&L

-$14

Hit rate

51.6%

Resolved (90d)

2,259

Trades (90d)

4,938

6,826 lifetime

Volume (90d)

$42.7K

$58.8K lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$57

4 positions

First seen

2026-03-13

last 11-10 14:44

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 178 days

Categories

Crypto

94% 53% +$618

Other

5% 61% -$148

Sports

1% 95% +$36

Politics

0% 83% -$7

Tech

0% 100% +$19

Pop-Culture

0% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

68 active days in 12wk • peak 124 trades/day

Open positions (4) Resolved markets (27) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	-30	-$8	82¢	$-24	-$16	07-08 15:46
Will Perplexity AI be acquired before 2027?	No	+18	$15	94¢	$17	+$2	06-10 03:11
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	-10	-$10	98¢	$-10	$0	08-25 20:40
Will 7-8 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?	No	-6	-$6	100¢	$-6	$0	08-24 13:36

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	4	$386	200	200	+0	No	+$14	05-07 05:54
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?	3	$280	211	211	+0	open	—	07-08 15:50
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	5	$268	240	240	+0	Down	+$25	10-26 16:21
bitcoin up or down august 29 2026 7am et	9	$248	250	250	+0	Down	+$7	08-29 11:45
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET	4	$234	150	150	+0	Down	+$64	11-04 00:35
solana up or down august 1 2026 11am et	1	$220	380	0	+380	Down	+$160	08-01 15:01
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	5	$160	100	100	+0	open	—	11-10 14:44
BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-10-04 08:00 UTC	3	$160	240	120	+120	Up	-$54	10-04 08:03
XRP Up/Down 4h · 2026-07-19 12:00 UTC	9	$147	220	0	+220	Up	-$87	07-19 15:51
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	3	$141	280	0	+280	Down	-$141	10-24 04:07
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 12AM ET	12	$139	140	130	+10	Up	+$6	10-26 04:01
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	5	$136	120	70	+50	No	+$4	05-18 01:09
bitcoin up or down september 25 2026 7am et	11	$134	200	0	+200	Down	+$66	09-25 11:51
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	7	$130	200	60	+140	Down	+$70	11-04 09:50
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026?	2	$129	80	80	+0	open	—	07-02 03:04
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$123	67	67	+0	No	+$2	07-02 03:06
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	2	$121	240	0	+240	Down	+$119	10-19 08:00
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	2	$121	240	0	+240	Down	-$121	10-22 08:02
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET	2	$121	240	0	+240	Up	-$121	10-27 21:31
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	3	$121	240	0	+240	Up	+$119	10-25 12:03
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	4	$121	240	0	+240	Up	-$121	10-21 16:04
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	4	$121	240	0	+240	Up	+$119	10-16 04:00
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	8	$121	240	0	+240	Down	-$121	11-10 13:16
BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-10-04 12:00 UTC	5	$121	240	0	+240	Down	+$119	10-04 12:01
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 1, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	2	$120	240	0	+240	Down	-$120	09-01 16:01
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 17, 4AM ET	8	$118	120	60	+60	Down	+$55	10-17 08:52
solana up or down august 29 2026 2pm et	7	$111	95	94	+1	Up	+$15	08-29 18:03
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-12 14:40 UTC	3	$105	56	56	+0	Down	+$5	06-12 14:45
BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-08-30 00:00 UTC	2	$105	200	0	+200	Down	+$95	08-30 00:00
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 12PM ET	9	$104	100	100	+0	Down	+$3	11-03 17:00

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-10 14:44:10	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	100	85¢	$85	0x853607…
11-10 13:59:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 9AM ET	Up	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0x4e16ce…
11-10 13:58:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 9AM ET	Up	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0xc5729c…
11-10 13:30:12	XRP Up or Down - November 10, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	18	50¢	$9	0xdfaaf2…
11-10 13:25:21	XRP Up or Down - November 10, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x5adc69…
11-10 13:25:19	XRP Up or Down - November 10, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	15	51¢	$8	0x9f68bc…
11-10 13:25:15	XRP Up or Down - November 10, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0x4bea34…
11-10 13:16:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	51	50¢	$26	0xd5f244…
11-10 13:16:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	18	50¢	$9	0xc5c437…
11-10 13:16:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	51	50¢	$26	0x270f6a…
11-10 13:16:03	Ethereum Up or Down - November 10, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	8	50¢	$4	0xe76ef9…
11-10 13:15:43	Ethereum Up or Down - November 10, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xa7441a…
11-10 13:15:43	Ethereum Up or Down - November 10, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x54b241…
11-10 13:04:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	5	51¢	$2	0xd3aa67…
11-10 13:02:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	51	51¢	$26	0xbd829f…
11-10 13:02:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	54	51¢	$28	0x7f3c11…
11-10 13:02:12	XRP Up or Down - November 10, 8AM ET	Up	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0xb0d8fa…
11-10 13:02:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	8	51¢	$4	0x22e027…
11-10 13:02:09	XRP Up or Down - November 10, 8AM ET	Up	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0xf60cd8…
11-10 13:01:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x2db036…
11-10 13:01:22	Solana Up or Down - November 10, 8AM ET	Down	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x3f6b72…
11-10 13:00:24	XRP Up or Down - November 10, 8AM ET	Up	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0x2a207d…
11-10 12:57:51	Solana Up or Down - November 10, 8AM ET	Down	BUY	8	49¢	$4	0x32a784…
11-10 12:51:25	XRP Up or Down - November 10, 7AM ET	Up	BUY	10	60¢	$6	0x7d93b1…
11-10 11:00:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 6AM ET	Up	BUY	43	51¢	$22	0xf7b48e…
11-10 11:00:52	Solana Up or Down - November 10, 6AM ET	Up	BUY	60	51¢	$31	0xaf2288…
11-10 11:00:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 6AM ET	Up	BUY	9	51¢	$5	0x5ece3f…
11-10 11:00:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 6AM ET	Up	BUY	9	51¢	$5	0xc46bed…
11-10 11:00:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 6AM ET	Up	BUY	33	51¢	$17	0x76a432…
11-10 11:00:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 6AM ET	Up	BUY	6	51¢	$3	0xef2ee3…
11-10 11:00:34	Ethereum Up or Down - November 10, 6AM ET	Up	BUY	18	51¢	$9	0xc260ce…
11-10 11:00:33	Ethereum Up or Down - November 10, 6AM ET	Up	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x5c5ca0…
11-10 10:03:03	Solana Up or Down - November 10, 5AM ET	Up	BUY	49	51¢	$25	0x52acb1…
11-10 10:03:00	Solana Up or Down - November 10, 5AM ET	Up	BUY	1	51¢	$1	0x9d1221…
11-10 10:03:00	Solana Up or Down - November 10, 5AM ET	Up	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0x5d76b6…
11-10 09:56:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 5AM ET	Up	BUY	12	50¢	$6	0xb5b4f7…
11-10 09:54:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 5AM ET	Up	BUY	18	50¢	$9	0xf93be0…
11-10 09:00:18	XRP Up/Down 4h · 2026-11-10 09:00 UTC	Up	BUY	8	50¢	$4	0x93ef10…
11-10 09:00:15	XRP Up/Down 4h · 2026-11-10 09:00 UTC	Up	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xfdb59b…
11-10 09:00:13	XRP Up/Down 4h · 2026-11-10 09:00 UTC	Up	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0x3c012c…
11-10 09:00:10	ETH Up/Down 4h · 2026-11-10 09:00 UTC	Up	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0xd820f3…
11-10 09:00:09	Solana Up or Down - November 10, 4AM ET	Up	BUY	8	51¢	$4	0xed96bf…
11-10 09:00:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	Up	BUY	32	50¢	$16	0xa17ef9…
11-10 09:00:09	Solana Up or Down - November 10, 4AM ET	Up	BUY	6	51¢	$3	0x1cf9b3…
11-10 09:00:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	Up	BUY	28	50¢	$14	0x1c67cb…
11-10 09:00:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	Up	BUY	42	51¢	$22	0x0674d5…
11-10 09:00:07	ETH Up/Down 4h · 2026-11-10 09:00 UTC	Up	BUY	6	51¢	$3	0xe9e3e4…
11-10 09:00:07	Solana Up or Down - November 10, 4AM ET	Up	BUY	16	51¢	$8	0x797d23…
11-10 09:00:07	XRP Up or Down - November 10, 4AM ET	Up	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0x72fa4f…
11-10 08:59:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	Up	BUY	6	51¢	$3	0xa18602…
11-10 08:59:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	Up	BUY	1	51¢	$0	0xc61692…
11-10 04:11:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 11PM ET	Up	BUY	21	50¢	$10	0x047dcd…
11-10 04:11:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 11PM ET	Up	BUY	19	50¢	$10	0xc2c222…
11-10 04:01:04	Solana Up or Down - November 9, 11PM ET	Up	BUY	0	51¢	$0	0xd1d0f1…
11-10 04:00:40	Solana Up or Down - November 9, 11PM ET	Up	BUY	60	51¢	$30	0x89f07d…
11-10 03:27:16	XRP Up or Down - November 9, 10PM ET	Up	BUY	0	52¢	$0	0xf000be…
11-10 03:27:16	XRP Up or Down - November 9, 10PM ET	Up	BUY	9	52¢	$5	0x5199e9…
11-10 03:25:54	XRP Up or Down - November 9, 10PM ET	Up	BUY	0	52¢	$0	0x8fb150…
11-10 03:05:36	Solana Up or Down - November 9, 10PM ET	Up	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0xe9ceb1…
11-10 03:03:01	Ethereum Up or Down - November 9, 10PM ET	Up	BUY	16	50¢	$8	0x44f241…
11-10 03:00:15	Ethereum Up or Down - November 9, 10PM ET	Up	BUY	4	50¢	$2	0xd7415e…
11-10 02:58:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 10PM ET	Up	BUY	50	50¢	$25	0x0d5574…
11-10 02:54:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 10PM ET	Up	BUY	50	51¢	$26	0xc37c62…
11-10 02:03:54	XRP Up or Down - November 9, 9PM ET	Down	SELL	4	53¢	$2	0xb37303…
11-10 02:03:46	XRP Up or Down - November 9, 9PM ET	Down	SELL	6	53¢	$3	0x7e12ee…
11-10 02:01:57	Ethereum Up or Down - November 9, 9PM ET	Up	BUY	40	41¢	$16	0xcf3fcc…
11-10 02:01:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 9PM ET	Down	SELL	12	55¢	$7	0x275252…
11-10 02:01:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 9PM ET	Up	BUY	0	50¢	$0	0xf6f644…
11-10 02:01:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 9PM ET	Up	BUY	30	50¢	$15	0x7691e6…
11-10 02:00:58	Solana Up or Down - November 9, 9PM ET	Up	BUY	60	51¢	$31	0xb3bc2a…
11-10 02:00:27	XRP Up or Down - November 9, 9PM ET	Down	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0x50034a…
11-10 02:00:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 9PM ET	Down	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0x7da3fa…
11-10 02:00:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 9PM ET	Down	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x0df9c2…
11-10 01:53:01	Solana Up or Down - November 9, 8PM ET	Up	BUY	15	45¢	$7	0x66b78e…
11-10 01:52:45	Ethereum Up or Down - November 9, 8PM ET	Up	BUY	10	79¢	$8	0x7f342e…
11-10 01:24:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 8PM ET	Up	BUY	4	50¢	$2	0xdd184c…
11-10 01:24:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 8PM ET	Up	BUY	8	50¢	$4	0xc7e3f8…
11-10 01:15:16	Ethereum Up or Down - November 9, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET	Up	BUY	20	60¢	$12	0xab8836…
11-10 01:03:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET	Up	BUY	10	61¢	$6	0x2902f8…
11-10 00:07:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 7PM ET	Down	BUY	0	51¢	$0	0xf61b7f…
11-10 00:07:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 7PM ET	Down	BUY	40	51¢	$20	0xce72b5…
11-10 00:05:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 7PM ET	Down	BUY	60	53¢	$32	0x747bcf…
11-09 23:50:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 6PM ET	Down	BUY	28	50¢	$14	0x0ea260…
11-09 23:30:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 6PM ET	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x40a022…
11-09 15:12:15	Solana Up or Down - November 9, 10AM ET	Down	BUY	1	51¢	$0	0x3bb849…
11-09 15:11:03	Solana Up or Down - November 9, 10AM ET	Down	BUY	58	51¢	$30	0x3840d9…
11-09 15:10:34	Ethereum Up or Down - November 9, 10AM ET	Down	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0x28b354…
11-09 15:00:19	Solana Up or Down - November 9, 10AM ET	Down	BUY	1	51¢	$0	0x6849a6…
11-09 15:00:16	Solana Up or Down - November 9, 10AM ET	Down	BUY	1	51¢	$0	0xcd37c1…
11-09 14:00:52	Ethereum Up or Down - November 9, 9AM ET	Down	BUY	38	50¢	$19	0x7ec1c0…
11-09 14:00:16	Solana Up or Down - November 9, 9AM ET	Down	BUY	40	51¢	$20	0x72d2a3…
11-09 14:00:06	Ethereum Up or Down - November 9, 9AM ET	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x2ca128…
11-09 13:01:04	Ethereum Up or Down - November 9, 8AM ET	Down	BUY	7	47¢	$3	0xb75d8d…
11-09 13:01:03	Ethereum Up or Down - November 9, 8AM ET	Down	BUY	13	47¢	$6	0x98a492…
11-09 13:01:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 8AM ET	Down	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0x34d7d5…
11-09 13:01:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 8AM ET	Down	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0x2b55e9…
11-09 13:01:01	Ethereum Up or Down - November 9, 8AM ET	Down	BUY	0	47¢	$0	0xfca4e7…
11-09 13:01:01	Solana Up or Down - November 9, 8AM ET	Down	BUY	20	45¢	$9	0xe19144…
11-08 07:01:04	XRP Up or Down - November 8, 2AM ET	Down	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0xeae177…
11-07 05:00:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 12AM ET	Up	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0xcaefd5…