Extraneous-Paperwork — Polymarket

Realized P&L (7d)

-$431

Unrealized P&L

-$26

Hit rate

49.4%

Resolved (7d)

119

Trades (7d)

253

7,564 lifetime

Volume (7d)

$2.39K

$65.2K lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$125

5 positions

First seen

2026-03-13

last 11-05 14:13

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 173 days

Categories

Crypto

94% 53% +$907

Other

5% 61% -$148

Sports

1% 95% +$36

Politics

0% 83% -$7

Tech

0% 100% +$19

Pop-Culture

0% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

70 active days in 12wk • peak 124 trades/day

Open positions (5) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	+100	$75	66¢	$66	-$10	10-27 13:15
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	-30	-$8	88¢	$-27	-$18	07-08 15:46
Will Perplexity AI be acquired before 2027?	No	+18	$15	94¢	$17	+$2	06-10 03:11
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	-10	-$10	98¢	$-10	$0	08-25 20:40
Will 7-8 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?	No	-6	-$6	100¢	$-6	$0	08-24 13:36

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	4	$386	200	200	+0	No	+$14	05-07 05:54
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?	3	$280	211	211	+0	open	—	07-08 15:50
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	5	$268	240	240	+0	Down	+$25	10-26 16:21
bitcoin up or down august 29 2026 7am et	9	$248	250	250	+0	Down	+$7	08-29 11:45
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET	4	$234	150	150	+0	Down	+$64	11-04 00:35
solana up or down august 1 2026 11am et	1	$220	380	0	+380	Down	+$160	08-01 15:01
BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-10-04 08:00 UTC	3	$160	240	120	+120	Up	-$54	10-04 08:03
XRP Up/Down 4h · 2026-07-19 12:00 UTC	9	$147	220	0	+220	Up	-$87	07-19 15:51
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	3	$141	280	0	+280	Down	-$141	10-24 04:07
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 12AM ET	12	$139	140	130	+10	Up	+$6	10-26 04:01
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	5	$136	120	70	+50	No	+$4	05-18 01:09
bitcoin up or down september 25 2026 7am et	11	$134	200	0	+200	Down	+$66	09-25 11:51
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	7	$130	200	60	+140	Down	+$70	11-04 09:50
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026?	2	$129	80	80	+0	open	—	07-02 03:04
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$123	67	67	+0	No	+$2	07-02 03:06
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 19, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	2	$121	240	0	+240	Down	+$119	10-19 08:00
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	2	$121	240	0	+240	Down	-$121	10-22 08:02
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET	2	$121	240	0	+240	Up	-$121	10-27 21:31
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	3	$121	240	0	+240	Up	+$119	10-25 12:03
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	4	$121	240	0	+240	Up	-$121	10-21 16:04
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 16, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	4	$121	240	0	+240	Up	+$119	10-16 04:00
BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-10-04 12:00 UTC	5	$121	240	0	+240	Down	+$119	10-04 12:01
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 1, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET	2	$120	240	0	+240	Down	-$120	09-01 16:01
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 17, 4AM ET	8	$118	120	60	+60	Down	+$55	10-17 08:52
solana up or down august 29 2026 2pm et	7	$111	95	94	+1	Up	+$15	08-29 18:03
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-12 14:40 UTC	3	$105	56	56	+0	Down	+$5	06-12 14:45
BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-08-30 00:00 UTC	2	$105	200	0	+200	Down	+$95	08-30 00:00
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 12PM ET	9	$104	100	100	+0	Down	+$3	11-03 17:00
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	7	$104	200	0	+200	Down	-$104	11-05 13:08
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 20, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET	1	$104	180	0	+180	Up	-$104	09-20 22:29

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-05 14:13:39	BNB Up or Down - November 5, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0xd33c38…
11-05 14:00:07	Ethereum Up or Down - November 5, 9AM ET	Up	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0x68969a…
11-05 13:08:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	1	51¢	$0	0xa95f45…
11-05 13:08:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	29	51¢	$15	0x52313a…
11-05 13:08:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	6	51¢	$3	0x601d65…
11-05 13:08:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0x876f42…
11-05 13:08:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	80	52¢	$42	0xedc07e…
11-05 13:07:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	74	53¢	$39	0xf35a1f…
11-05 13:07:49	Ethereum Up or Down - November 5, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	20	52¢	$10	0xf7b46e…
11-05 13:07:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	6	53¢	$3	0xcea27e…
11-05 13:06:12	BNB Up or Down - November 5, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	6	52¢	$3	0x6eb912…
11-05 13:05:57	BNB Up or Down - November 5, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	6	52¢	$3	0xa60662…
11-05 13:05:40	BNB Up or Down - November 5, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Up	BUY	6	52¢	$3	0x1573c1…
11-05 13:01:42	Solana Up or Down - November 5, 8AM ET	Up	BUY	3	58¢	$2	0xc93fa5…
11-05 13:01:42	Solana Up or Down - November 5, 8AM ET	Up	BUY	30	58¢	$17	0x2d73af…
11-05 13:01:28	Solana Up or Down - November 5, 8AM ET	Up	BUY	7	58¢	$4	0xa50706…
11-05 12:00:22	XRP Up or Down - November 5, 7AM ET	Up	BUY	10	44¢	$4	0xf56ac7…
11-05 12:00:16	Solana Up or Down - November 5, 7AM ET	Up	BUY	14	51¢	$7	0x03032e…
11-05 12:00:09	Solana Up or Down - November 5, 7AM ET	Up	BUY	6	51¢	$3	0x974cfe…
11-05 11:34:54	Ethereum Up or Down - November 5, 6AM ET	Up	BUY	10	72¢	$7	0xf5decd…
11-05 11:00:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 6AM ET	Up	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0x5a9348…
11-05 10:56:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 6AM ET	Up	BUY	36	51¢	$18	0x83ab25…
11-05 10:31:40	BNB Up or Down - November 5, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	Up	BUY	10	64¢	$6	0x822552…
11-05 10:18:51	XRP Up or Down - November 5, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	76¢	$4	0xa5d841…
11-05 10:17:34	XRP Up or Down - November 5, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	76¢	$4	0x50913f…
11-05 10:15:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	Up	BUY	110	39¢	$43	0x521e4e…
11-05 06:02:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 1AM ET	Up	BUY	100	51¢	$51	0x539c4f…
11-05 06:02:48	XRP Up or Down - November 5, 1AM ET	Up	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0x149ebf…
11-05 06:02:37	Solana Up or Down - November 5, 1AM ET	Up	BUY	60	52¢	$31	0x8da4dc…
11-05 05:02:31	Solana Up or Down - November 5, 12AM ET	Up	BUY	20	45¢	$9	0xb90866…
11-05 05:01:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 12AM ET	Down	SELL	5	57¢	$3	0xc8f471…
11-05 05:01:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 12AM ET	Down	SELL	5	57¢	$3	0xafad01…
11-05 05:01:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 12AM ET	Down	SELL	2	57¢	$1	0x00cff0…
11-05 05:00:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 12AM ET	Up	BUY	100	43¢	$43	0x1cd80a…
11-05 04:59:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 12AM ET	Down	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x4cdd4c…
11-05 04:59:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 12AM ET	Down	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0xfd0bf1…
11-05 04:00:36	Ethereum Up or Down - November 4, 11PM ET	Up	BUY	20	41¢	$8	0xd781f8…
11-05 04:00:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 11PM ET	Up	BUY	40	46¢	$18	0x07a5b3…
11-05 03:03:27	Solana Up or Down - November 4, 10PM ET	Down	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0x664a8d…
11-05 03:00:19	Solana Up or Down - November 4, 10PM ET	Down	BUY	20	52¢	$10	0xc61332…
11-05 02:59:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 10PM ET	Up	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x5a0e9a…
11-05 02:59:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 10PM ET	Up	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x539ebc…
11-05 02:04:34	Solana Up or Down - November 4, 9PM ET	Down	BUY	20	52¢	$10	0xf54e50…
11-05 02:02:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 9PM ET	Down	BUY	0	51¢	$0	0x9e7856…
11-05 02:02:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 9PM ET	Down	BUY	17	51¢	$9	0x9a9b06…
11-05 02:01:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 9PM ET	Down	BUY	23	51¢	$12	0xcdc991…
11-05 01:38:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 8PM ET	Down	BUY	12	49¢	$6	0xb3ad30…
11-04 17:00:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 12PM ET	Down	BUY	66	51¢	$34	0x8463ec…
11-04 17:00:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 12PM ET	Down	BUY	6	51¢	$3	0xcfbc94…
11-04 17:00:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 12PM ET	Down	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0x067ed9…
11-04 17:00:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 12PM ET	Down	BUY	7	51¢	$4	0xb77b95…
11-04 17:00:15	Solana Up or Down - November 4, 12PM ET	Down	BUY	20	52¢	$10	0x45f65e…
11-04 16:00:16	Solana Up or Down - November 4, 11AM ET	Down	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0xc8e4fc…
11-04 16:00:13	Ethereum Up or Down - November 4, 11AM ET	Down	BUY	7	50¢	$4	0x0e2c1e…
11-04 16:00:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 11AM ET	Down	BUY	6	51¢	$3	0xff7a26…
11-04 16:00:06	Ethereum Up or Down - November 4, 11AM ET	Down	BUY	13	50¢	$6	0xeae666…
11-04 15:59:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 11AM ET	Down	BUY	34	51¢	$17	0x6d1473…
11-04 15:00:18	Solana Up or Down - November 4, 10AM ET	Down	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0x345050…
11-04 15:00:13	XRP Up or Down - November 4, 10AM ET	Down	BUY	5	52¢	$3	0xe517df…
11-04 15:00:13	XRP Up or Down - November 4, 10AM ET	Down	BUY	1	52¢	$0	0x2e285f…
11-04 15:00:09	Ethereum Up or Down - November 4, 10AM ET	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x8f046f…
11-04 14:54:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 10AM ET	Down	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0x93b25e…
11-04 14:00:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 9AM ET	Down	BUY	6	50¢	$3	0x3a5dac…
11-04 14:00:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 9AM ET	Down	BUY	6	50¢	$3	0xe18703…
11-04 13:04:42	Solana Up or Down - November 4, 8AM ET	Up	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0x946e1b…
11-04 13:00:13	Ethereum Up or Down - November 4, 8AM ET	Up	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x8f27ce…
11-04 12:59:58	Solana Up or Down - November 4, 8AM ET	Up	BUY	6	52¢	$3	0x17da67…
11-04 12:49:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 8AM ET	Up	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0x901fee…
11-04 12:00:13	Ethereum Up or Down - November 4, 7AM ET	Down	BUY	9	50¢	$4	0xb1d152…
11-04 12:00:09	Ethereum Up or Down - November 4, 7AM ET	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x85cb58…
11-04 12:00:09	Ethereum Up or Down - November 4, 7AM ET	Down	BUY	1	50¢	$0	0x4cd31e…
11-04 12:00:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 7AM ET	Up	BUY	12	49¢	$6	0xda5fa3…
11-04 11:09:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 6AM ET	Down	BUY	12	50¢	$6	0xb24f9b…
11-04 09:56:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 5AM ET	Up	BUY	12	48¢	$6	0xf3efbe…
11-04 09:50:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	Down	SELL	60	50¢	$30	0x610b97…
11-04 09:00:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	Down	BUY	120	50¢	$60	0xbd243a…
11-04 09:00:16	XRP Up/Down 4h · 2026-11-04 09:00 UTC	Down	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0x13a17f…
11-04 09:00:15	Ethereum Up or Down - November 4, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	Down	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0x04d63b…
11-04 09:00:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	Down	BUY	6	50¢	$3	0x168c31…
11-04 08:59:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	Down	BUY	6	50¢	$3	0x5f32e9…
11-04 08:59:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET	Down	BUY	6	50¢	$3	0x032c06…
11-04 08:53:31	BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-11-04 09:00 UTC	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x77457a…
11-04 08:01:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 3AM ET	Down	BUY	114	51¢	$58	0xbd04a5…
11-04 08:00:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 3AM ET	Down	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x832bfc…
11-04 08:00:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 3AM ET	Down	BUY	13	51¢	$7	0xebbdfa…
11-04 08:00:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 3AM ET	Down	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0x98b74f…
11-04 08:00:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 3AM ET	Down	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0x11344c…
11-04 08:00:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 3AM ET	Down	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0xe3f128…
11-04 08:00:16	Solana Up or Down - November 4, 3AM ET	Down	BUY	80	52¢	$42	0x247ecd…
11-04 08:00:13	Ethereum Up or Down - November 4, 3AM ET	Down	BUY	5	51¢	$2	0x947fa5…
11-04 08:00:13	Ethereum Up or Down - November 4, 3AM ET	Down	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0x5d44ca…
11-04 08:00:13	Ethereum Up or Down - November 4, 3AM ET	Down	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0x49d30d…
11-04 08:00:13	Ethereum Up or Down - November 4, 3AM ET	Down	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0x00d9c4…
11-04 06:00:40	Ethereum Up or Down - November 4, 1AM ET	Down	BUY	16	51¢	$8	0xc572f0…
11-04 06:00:33	Ethereum Up or Down - November 4, 1AM ET	Down	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0x60576e…
11-04 06:00:33	Ethereum Up or Down - November 4, 1AM ET	Down	BUY	19	52¢	$10	0x00df55…
11-04 06:00:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 1AM ET	Down	BUY	100	51¢	$51	0x2b56d7…
11-04 06:00:13	Solana Up or Down - November 4, 1AM ET	Down	BUY	54	52¢	$28	0x7f6c8f…
11-04 06:00:12	XRP Up or Down - November 4, 1AM ET	Down	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0xdb91d7…
11-04 06:00:12	Solana Up or Down - November 4, 1AM ET	Down	BUY	6	52¢	$3	0xcf4c9f…