Serious-Authority 0xe1f16e…aa3a05 Create alert
whale hot
← all wallets
Realized P&L
+$5.69K
Unrealized P&L
+$66
Hit rate
59.7%
Resolved
5,194
Trades
95,965
lifetime
Volume
$2.38M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$25
Open exposure
$2.74K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 11-15 10:04
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 289 days
Categories
Other
60% 39% +$1,572
Sports
15% 47% +$614
Politics
14% 46% +$4,161
Crypto
8% 33% -$917
Tech
3% 47% +$404
Pop-Culture
0% 45% -$140
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
83 active days in 12wk • peak 390 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Anthropic IPO on November 19, 2026? Yes +300 $274 92¢ $275 +$1 11-13 15:03
Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? No +432 $123 61¢ $263 +$140 11-01 05:54
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day? No +278 $351 91¢ $254 -$97 11-14 19:42
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day? No +438 $246 56¢ $246 $0 11-15 10:04
Will no qualifying US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place by December 31, 2026? No +861 $335 26¢ $228 -$106 11-14 22:57
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.5T and $1.75T at market close on IPO day? No +230 $204 79¢ $183 -$22 11-15 05:03
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? No +180 -$209 98¢ $175 +$385 08-07 08:38
Next Muse Spark (1.4+) released by November 30, 2026? Yes +276 $133 60¢ $164 +$31 11-15 04:34
Will Uber ask Travis Kalanick back by June 30, 2027? Yes -470 -$6 27¢ $-125 -$120 07-01 18:11
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes +296 $88 34¢ $102 +$15 10-29 17:38
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day? No +105 $124 96¢ $101 -$23 11-14 18:29
Will "Ebenezer" score at least 40 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? Yes +75 $52 99¢ $74 +$22 10-27 14:06
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027? Yes -1,035 -$92 6¢ $-67 +$24 09-22 22:03
Will Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL AFC Championship? Yes -260 -$49 22¢ $-58 -$10 11-09 21:48
Will Anthropic IPO on November 18, 2026? No +54 $77 100¢ $53 -$23 11-12 07:36
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.5T and $1.75T at market close on IPO day? Yes +256 $104 21¢ $53 -$51 11-15 05:03
Will Anthropic IPO on November 27, 2026? No +50 $45 100¢ $50 +$5 11-08 17:02
Will Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship? Yes -610 -$48 8¢ $-49 -$1 10-19 00:00
Will Jensen Huang join SpaceX by December 31, 2026? No +41 $22 95¢ $39 +$17 11-14 08:06
Will Xi Jinping purge Dong Jun in 2026? Yes — -632 -$81 5¢ $-33 +$48 11-03 14:32
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Kevin Warsh by December 31, 2026? Yes +300 $75 9¢ $27 -$48 10-29 16:17
Święczkowski reinstated as Constitutional Tribunal President by March 31, 2027? Yes +141 $55 19¢ $27 -$28 11-02 15:31
US-Saudi nuclear deal enters into force in 2026? Yes +300 -$32 6¢ $19 +$51 08-23 17:23
Will GEN be number 1 on the end of year Global Power Rankings? No +20 $27 100¢ $19 -$8 11-09 01:41
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Rhode Island Senate election by 30% or more? No +437 $172 4¢ $17 -$155 11-01 10:48
Will Jensen Huang join SpaceX by December 31, 2026? Yes +146 -$9 5¢ $8 +$16 11-15 00:36
Will Lake Powell's minimum elevation stay above 3,510 ft? No +180 $12 4¢ $7 -$5 10-19 21:11
Will Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL AFC Championship? Yes -255 -$20 3¢ $-7 +$13 10-18 16:50
Will Jensen Huang be arrested by December 31, 2026? Yes +249 $11 3¢ $7 -$4 11-14 14:42
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes +300 $10 2¢ $6 -$3 10-29 15:46