Serious-Authority 0xe1f16e…aa3a05 Create alert
whale cold
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Realized P&L (90d)
-$3.25K
Unrealized P&L
+$174
Hit rate
55.1%
Resolved (90d)
830
Trades (90d)
10,943
95,547 lifetime
Volume (90d)
$252.8K
$2.36M lifetime
Avg / trade
$25
Open exposure
$1.17K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 11-10 02:33
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 285 days
Categories
Other
60% 39% +$1,840
Sports
15% 47% +$614
Politics
14% 46% +$4,161
Crypto
8% 33% -$917
Tech
3% 47% +$404
Pop-Culture
0% 45% -$140
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
83 active days in 12wk • peak 390 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? No +432 $123 45¢ $194 +$71 11-01 05:54
Will Uber ask Travis Kalanick back by June 30, 2027? Yes -470 -$6 40¢ $-186 -$180 07-01 18:11
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? No +180 -$209 96¢ $173 +$382 08-07 08:38
Will Anthropic IPO on November 20, 2026? Yes +298 $70 42¢ $124 +$54 11-09 21:13
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027? Yes -1,035 -$92 6¢ $-62 +$30 09-22 22:03
Will Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL AFC Championship? Yes -260 -$49 22¢ $-56 -$7 11-09 21:48
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes +296 $88 18¢ $52 -$36 10-29 17:38
Will Anthropic IPO on November 27, 2026? No +50 $45 99¢ $50 +$4 11-08 17:02
Will Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship? Yes -610 -$48 6¢ $-38 +$10 10-19 00:00
Święczkowski reinstated as Constitutional Tribunal President by December 31, 2026? Yes +300 $64 12¢ $36 -$28 11-01 09:25
Printr FDV above $50M one day after launch? No +43 $17 71¢ $31 +$14 05-01 13:11
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Kevin Warsh by December 31, 2026? Yes +300 $75 10¢ $28 -$46 10-29 16:17
Święczkowski reinstated as Constitutional Tribunal President by March 31, 2027? Yes +141 $55 19¢ $27 -$28 11-02 15:31
Will "Ebenezer" score at least 70 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? Yes +213 $52 12¢ $24 -$27 11-09 10:32
Printr FDV above $50M one day after launch? Yes +44 -$112 29¢ $13 +$125 05-14 20:35
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes +300 $10 4¢ $13 +$3 10-29 15:46
Will GEN be number 1 on the end of year Global Power Rankings? No +20 $27 38¢ $8 -$20 11-09 01:41
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? Yes +180 -$45 4¢ $7 +$52 08-02 07:53
Will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place in the United States by December 31, 2026? Yes +290 $199 2¢ $7 -$192 09-30 13:53
Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of November 2026? No +45 $12 14¢ $6 -$6 10-31 21:34
Will BRICS add a new member in 2026? Yes -45 -$20 14¢ $-6 +$14 05-08 21:19
Will Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL AFC Championship? Yes -255 -$20 2¢ $-6 +$14 10-18 16:50
Will Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL AFC Championship? Yes -45 -$4 12¢ $-5 -$2 09-13 16:00
Will Anthropic not IPO by November 30, 2026? No +5 $3 95¢ $5 +$2 11-02 11:42
US military draft authorized in 2026? Yes -273 -$45 2¢ $-5 +$40 10-06 20:18
US military draft authorized in 2026? No +4 $6 98¢ $4 -$2 06-23 17:01
Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026? Yes -187 -$14 2¢ $-3 +$10 11-01 03:10
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 NJ-04 House election by 20%-25%? Yes +300 $89 1¢ $3 -$87 11-02 00:57
Will Manchester City finish in the top 4 of the 2026-27 English Premier League season? No +5 -$7 59¢ $3 +$10 09-30 22:46
Will 5-6 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026? Yes -12 -$3 20¢ $-2 +$1 05-02 12:30