Serious-Authority 0xe1f16e…aa3a05 Create alert
whale cold
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Realized P&L (90d)
-$3.26K
Unrealized P&L
+$122
Hit rate
55.0%
Resolved (90d)
848
Trades (90d)
11,201
95,531 lifetime
Volume (90d)
$256.1K
$2.36M lifetime
Avg / trade
$25
Open exposure
$1.19K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 11-08 16:42
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 285 days
Categories
Other
60% 39% +$1,840
Sports
15% 47% +$614
Politics
14% 46% +$4,161
Crypto
8% 33% -$917
Tech
3% 47% +$404
Pop-Culture
0% 45% -$140
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
83 active days in 12wk • peak 390 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Uber ask Travis Kalanick back by June 30, 2027? Yes -470 -$6 38¢ $-179 -$174 07-01 18:11
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? No +180 -$209 96¢ $173 +$382 08-07 08:38
Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? No +432 $123 34¢ $149 +$26 11-01 05:54
Will Anthropic IPO on November 20, 2026? Yes +299 $71 34¢ $100 +$30 10-31 00:28
Will Anthropic IPO on November 27, 2026? No +83 $78 99¢ $82 +$4 10-28 06:36
Will GEN be number 1 on the end of year Global Power Rankings? No +200 $92 36¢ $73 -$19 11-08 16:42
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027? Yes -1,035 -$92 6¢ $-67 +$24 09-22 22:03
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes +296 $88 19¢ $56 -$31 10-29 17:38
Will Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship? Yes -610 -$48 8¢ $-48 +$1 10-19 00:00
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Kevin Warsh by December 31, 2026? Yes +300 $75 14¢ $42 -$33 10-29 16:17
Święczkowski reinstated as Constitutional Tribunal President by December 31, 2026? Yes +300 $64 12¢ $36 -$28 11-01 09:25
Printr FDV above $50M one day after launch? No +43 $17 71¢ $31 +$14 05-01 13:11
Święczkowski reinstated as Constitutional Tribunal President by March 31, 2027? Yes +141 $55 20¢ $28 -$28 11-02 15:31
Will "Ebenezer" score at least 70 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? Yes +249 $60 9¢ $22 -$37 10-27 11:31
Printr FDV above $50M one day after launch? Yes +44 -$112 29¢ $13 +$125 05-14 20:35
Will Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL AFC Championship? Yes -66 -$8 18¢ $-12 -$4 10-04 22:01
Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of November 2026? No +45 $12 23¢ $10 -$2 10-31 21:34
Will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place in Qatar by December 31, 2026? Yes +50 $9 18¢ $9 +$0 10-31 14:25
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes +300 $10 3¢ $9 -$1 10-29 15:46
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? Yes +180 -$45 4¢ $7 +$52 08-02 07:53
Will BRICS add a new member in 2026? Yes -45 -$20 14¢ $-6 +$14 05-08 21:19
Will Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL AFC Championship? Yes -255 -$20 2¢ $-6 +$14 10-18 16:50
Will no qualifying US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place by December 31, 2026? No +15 $55 40¢ $6 -$49 11-07 13:58
Will the next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place in the United States by December 31, 2026? Yes +290 $199 2¢ $5 -$194 09-30 13:53
US military draft authorized in 2026? Yes -273 -$45 2¢ $-5 +$40 10-06 20:18
Will Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL AFC Championship? Yes -45 -$4 11¢ $-5 -$1 09-13 16:00
Will Anthropic IPO on November 19, 2026? Yes +74 $16 6¢ $4 -$12 11-07 15:35
Will Anthropic not IPO by November 30, 2026? No +5 $3 78¢ $4 +$1 11-02 11:42
US military draft authorized in 2026? No +4 $6 98¢ $4 -$2 06-23 17:01
Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026? Yes -187 -$14 2¢ $-3 +$10 11-01 03:10