Serious-Authority 0xe1f16e…aa3a05
whale
← all wallets
Realized P&L (7d)
-$483
Unrealized P&L
-$30
Hit rate
61.5%
Resolved (7d)
122
Trades (7d)
1,697
95,341 lifetime
Volume (7d)
$50.1K
$2.36M lifetime
Avg / trade
$25
Open exposure
$2.73K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 11-02 08:37
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 280 days
Categories
Other
60% 39% +$1,970
Sports
15% 47% +$614
Politics
14% 43% +$4,793
Crypto
8% 33% -$917
Tech
3% 47% +$404
Pop-Culture
0% 45% -$140
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
83 active days in 12wk • peak 390 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? Yes -1,131 -$509 50¢ $-571 -$63 11-02 04:34
Will the Republicans win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026? No +297 $188 84¢ $251 +$63 10-30 16:58
Will Uber ask Travis Kalanick back by June 30, 2027? Yes -470 -$6 49¢ $-232 -$226 07-01 18:11
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.5T and $1.75T at market close on IPO day? No +266 $240 81¢ $215 -$25 11-02 01:45
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day? No +308 $303 70¢ $214 -$89 11-02 05:13
Will the Republicans win the New Hampshire Senate race in 2026? No +206 $169 94¢ $194 +$25 11-01 19:56
Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? No +339 $192 50¢ $168 -$24 11-02 04:01
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? No +180 -$209 93¢ $167 +$377 08-07 08:38
Will the Democrats win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026? No +931 $325 16¢ $144 -$180 11-01 18:30
Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $1.25T and $1.5T? No +84 $77 81¢ $68 -$9 11-02 08:04
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day? Yes +300 $117 20¢ $60 -$56 10-31 09:05
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027? Yes -1,035 -$92 6¢ $-57 +$35 09-22 22:03
Will Anthropic's market cap be $3.0T or greater at market close on IPO day? No +47 $46 98¢ $46 +$0 10-31 22:46
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 48 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? Yes -292 -$47 16¢ $-45 +$1 11-02 05:38
Will Inter Milan win the 2026-27 Serie A Championship? Yes +80 $43 56¢ $45 +$2 11-01 12:15
Will Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship? Yes -610 -$48 7¢ $-44 +$4 10-19 00:00
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day? Yes +300 -$6 11¢ $32 +$38 10-31 16:45
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.25T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day? Yes +300 $70 8¢ $22 -$47 10-31 11:15
Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $1.5T and $1.75T? Yes +108 $27 20¢ $21 -$6 10-30 16:51
Will the Democrats win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026? No -363 $14 6¢ $-20 -$34 11-01 20:30
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 51 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? Yes +280 $18 6¢ $18 +$0 10-31 00:24
Will Anthropic's market cap be less than $1.25T at market close on IPO day? Yes +282 $4 5¢ $14 +$11 11-01 17:21
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 52 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? Yes +299 $13 4¢ $13 $0 10-30 15:27
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? Yes +180 -$45 7¢ $12 +$57 08-02 07:53
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 53 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? Yes -357 -$13 3¢ $-12 +$1 11-02 08:31
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 49 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? Yes -96 -$22 12¢ $-11 +$11 10-28 23:26
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 54 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? Yes -1,242 -$41 1¢ $-10 +$31 08-15 01:13
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.5T and $2.75T at market close on IPO day? Yes +270 $26 4¢ $10 -$16 10-31 18:58
Will the Democrats win the New Hampshire Senate race in 2026? No -174 -$86 6¢ $-10 +$76 11-01 17:43
Will Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL AFC Championship? Yes -255 -$20 3¢ $-6 +$14 10-18 16:50