Steep-Treat 0xe6940b…ee7e7c Create alert
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Realized P&L (90d)
+$611
Unrealized P&L
+$10
Hit rate
77.6%
Resolved (90d)
412
Trades (90d)
3,307
8,144 lifetime
Volume (90d)
$18.3K
$42.5K lifetime
Avg / trade
$5
Open exposure
$4.26K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-13
last 11-13 08:14
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 131 days
Categories
Politics
57% 55% +$125
Other
42% 59% +$580
Tech
1% 55% +$3
Crypto
0% 17% -$1
Sports
0% 100% +$0
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
84 active days in 12wk • peak 206 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No -1,780 -$1,774 100¢ $-1777 -$3 11-04 02:35
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No +699 $579 82¢ $574 -$5 10-30 19:40
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting? No +313 $282 91¢ $284 +$2 11-10 14:11
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes +208 $196 98¢ $204 +$8 11-04 02:31
Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026? No +178 $131 98¢ $175 +$44 11-10 13:00
Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)? No +165 $116 98¢ $162 +$46 11-12 19:59
Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)? Yes +155 $94 97¢ $150 +$55 10-06 06:37
Will Ofer Winter be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No +135 $125 100¢ $135 +$10 09-29 19:12
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes +699 $172 18¢ $126 -$47 11-05 02:07
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No +108 $93 91¢ $98 +$5 07-22 16:15
Will no next Israeli Minister of Justice be appointed by February 28, 2027? No +126 $79 65¢ $82 +$3 10-25 08:51
Israeli election results in a hung parliament? No +109 $49 64¢ $71 +$22 10-30 12:58
Will Ra'am be in the next Israeli government? No +49 $41 80¢ $39 -$2 10-05 16:50
Will no next Israeli Minister of Interior be appointed by February 28, 2027? No +61 $44 63¢ $39 -$5 11-08 11:31
Will the Fed Pause-Hike-Hike in the next three decisions (Oct-Dec-Jan)? No +86 $70 43¢ $37 -$34 10-20 00:56
Will the Fed Pause-Hike-Pause in the next three decisions (Oct-Dec-Jan)? No +59 $30 60¢ $36 +$5 10-08 12:00
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No +32 $31 100¢ $32 +$1 09-29 22:12
Will 2 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026? No +209 $80 12¢ $24 -$56 09-25 09:25
Will no next Israeli Minister of Defense be appointed by February 28, 2027? Yes +61 $30 35¢ $22 -$8 11-08 02:00
Another Fed rate hike in 2026? Yes +21 $17 97¢ $20 +$3 10-02 12:33
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No +20 $19 100¢ $20 +$1 07-19 22:43
Next Israeli government formed by February 28, 2027? Yes +29 $7 68¢ $20 +$13 11-07 15:46
Will Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No +20 $20 100¢ $20 +$0 08-27 10:52
Will no next Israeli Minister of National Security be appointed by February 28, 2027? Yes +51 $24 36¢ $18 -$6 11-05 23:24
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes +5,028 $19 0¢ $18 -$1 11-13 04:35
Will the Joint List be in the next Israeli government? No +18 $16 95¢ $17 +$1 10-28 22:47
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting? No +146 $47 12¢ $17 -$30 09-30 01:09
Will no next Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs be appointed by February 28, 2027? No +23 $15 70¢ $16 +$1 10-23 09:30
Will no next Israeli Minister of Justice be appointed by February 28, 2027? Yes +44 $18 35¢ $16 -$2 11-07 15:58
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting? Yes -153 -$3 9¢ $-14 -$12 10-30 23:44