Long-Term-Wastebasket — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$26

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

54.6%

Resolved

Trades

3,261

lifetime

Volume

$6.45K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-06

last 07-04 12:24

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 9 days

Categories

Other

61% 38% $-25

Politics

17% 67% +$2

Crypto

13% 50% $-9

Sports

7% 50% +$5

Tech

2% — —

Pop-Culture

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

28 active days in 12wk • peak 11 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will gta 6 cost 100	115	$232	18,816	15,426	+3,390	open	—	02-28 10:22
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány?	30	$148	7,075	6,238	+837	open	—	03-29 22:13
will andr ventura win the 2026 portugal presidential election	6	$100	1,214	1,491	-277	open	—	01-24 12:23
Will Muhammad Mirbaqiri be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	63	$93	5,693	5,693	+0	open	—	03-07 00:11
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be László Toroczkai?	37	$85	5,553	3,753	+1,800	open	—	03-26 23:26
Will the Florida Panthers win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	19	$80	7,050	3,036	+4,014	open	—	03-19 16:27
Paradex FDV above $750M one day after launch?	6	$75	3,931	1,931	+2,000	open	—	03-05 09:57
will the us collect between 1t and 2t in revenue in 2025	180	$75	15,512	15,512	+0	open	—	02-25 04:05
will the us collect between 500b and 1t in revenue in 2025	508	$74	14,712	16,554	-1,842	open	—	02-21 21:18
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	62	$72	10,000	10,000	+0	open	—	03-07 13:29
will the fed decide differently in the next three decisions decjanmar	98	$72	4,224	4,224	+0	open	—	02-16 12:16
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan be the next leader out before 2027?	57	$66	8,531	6,310	+2,221	open	—	02-18 10:09
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	35	$60	2,165	2,165	+0	open	—	04-09 00:04
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?	5	$54	1,708	1,708	+0	open	—	04-24 17:53
will afd win the most seats in the 2026 baden wrttemberg parliamentary elections	14	$53	2,904	2,904	+0	open	—	03-03 11:25
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?	17	$50	535	509	+26	open	—	04-24 08:31
EdgeX FDV above $10B one day after launch?	64	$49	6,503	6,503	+0	open	—	03-15 04:11
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026?	3	$48	400	380	+19	open	—	04-24 10:24
GTA VI released before June 2026?	13	$48	2,125	2,125	+0	open	—	04-28 15:21
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027?	5	$45	257	85	+172	No	$-15	03-18 17:36
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch?	10	$45	1,994	1,994	+0	open	—	04-27 16:17
Will there be fewer than 5 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?	6	$44	933	781	+152	open	—	04-02 22:04
bitboy convicted	9	$41	164	164	+0	open	—	03-24 16:35
Will Mahmoud Ahmadinejad be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	4	$41	6,449	6,449	+0	open	—	03-08 20:02
Will Sébastien Lecornu be the next leader out before 2027?	16	$40	3,291	2,424	+867	open	—	02-22 08:08
will coinbase be accused of insider trading	4	$40	1,285	1,285	+0	open	—	02-25 20:32
Will Ahmad Vahidi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	10	$40	10,000	5,000	+5,000	open	—	03-06 01:48
will the us collect more than 2t in revenue in 2025	428	$39	8,066	14,066	-6,000	open	—	02-19 12:13
elon musk of tweets april 10 april 17 400 419	2	$38	499	474	+25	open	—	04-13 09:17
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?	5	$38	461	461	+0	open	—	03-12 03:55

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-04 12:24:50	XRP all time high by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	7¢	$1	0x68dfcc…
07-03 22:24:55	XRP all time high by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	56	7¢	$4	0x42c55f…
07-01 20:56:56	SCOTUS accepts sports event contract case by July 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	18	8¢	$1	0x7c55a0…
06-30 18:52:25	Will Waymo launch in Dallas by June 30 2026?	Yes	SELL	19	34¢	$7	0x6db396…
06-28 02:50:10	Ledger IPO before 2027?	Yes	SELL	22	18¢	$4	0xa7c43e…
06-21 21:57:44	NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	429	2¢	$7	0x9765e8…
06-21 21:36:04	NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	2¢	$0	0x49bb25…
06-18 17:45:32	Will OpenAI GPT score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam?	Yes	SELL	24	28¢	$7	0x890500…
06-17 16:20:20	fifwc prt cdr 2026 06 17 btts	No	BUY	50	60¢	$30	0x67c80f…
06-17 06:54:26	Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026?	Yes	SELL	36	25¢	$9	0x9610b0…
06-16 21:15:43	XRP all time high by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	24	7¢	$2	0x7d3a68…
06-16 20:39:56	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027?	Yes	SELL	42	18¢	$8	0x5eef80…
06-15 22:22:40	Will OpenAI GPT score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam?	Yes	BUY	24	20¢	$5	0x0304f5…
06-15 22:22:27	NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	434	1¢	$5	0xeee331…
06-15 04:28:28	Anthropic IPO before 2027?	No	SELL	4	22¢	$1	0xb1e18f…
06-13 21:02:46	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	268	2¢	$5	0xde9ad2…
06-13 21:02:19	Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026?	Yes	BUY	36	14¢	$5	0x79c52f…
06-13 21:01:34	US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	No	BUY	24	21¢	$5	0x6a26b1…
06-12 14:38:10	jung chung rae out as dp leader in 2026	No	SELL	47	18¢	$8	0xbe0e13…
06-12 08:49:55	spacex ipo closing market cap above 2pt8t	Yes	SELL	32	13¢	$4	0x793c17…
06-11 17:43:00	will pltr dip to 126 in june 2026	No	SELL	24	30¢	$7	0xa01ca7…
06-11 14:04:54	will spy dip to 720 in june 2026	No	SELL	21	30¢	$6	0xcef290…
06-11 14:02:28	will spy dip to 720 in june 2026	No	SELL	4	30¢	$1	0x43ada1…
06-11 01:41:04	will solana dip to 60 in june 2026	No	SELL	20	31¢	$6	0x1e4bac…
06-11 01:39:45	will solana dip to 60 in june 2026	No	SELL	5	31¢	$1	0xe7cf02…
06-10 22:36:18	Will Republicans lose House majority before the midterms?	Yes	BUY	28	17¢	$5	0x84700a…
06-10 22:34:37	GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?	No	SELL	173	4¢	$7	0xbd4f36…
06-10 22:29:09	GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?	No	BUY	173	3¢	$5	0x75d5e8…
06-10 22:28:07	will spy dip to 720 in june 2026	No	BUY	24	20¢	$5	0xae1d7c…
06-10 22:27:45	will pltr dip to 126 in june 2026	No	BUY	24	20¢	$5	0xf6034e…
06-10 22:27:21	will solana dip to 60 in june 2026	No	BUY	25	23¢	$6	0xb1db52…
06-10 17:36:09	spacex ipo closing market cap above 2pt8t	Yes	SELL	43	13¢	$6	0x2bfd2d…
06-10 09:18:19	Netanyahu drops out of Israel election by July 31?	Yes	SELL	72	12¢	$9	0x03295e…
06-10 06:24:00	will goldman sachs gs q2 investment banking fees be above 3pt1b	Yes	SELL	34	20¢	$7	0x0c43b0…
06-09 19:58:18	XRP all time high by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	99	5¢	$5	0x32a1a4…
06-09 19:55:51	Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $65 by end of June?	No	BUY	21	23¢	$5	0x3bcae6…
06-09 19:51:12	US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	5¢	$5	0x47fc7d…
06-09 19:49:54	Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	42	14¢	$6	0xc50937…
06-09 19:46:34	will goldman sachs gs q2 investment banking fees be above 3pt1b	Yes	BUY	34	14¢	$5	0x8a03d4…
06-09 19:45:16	Will Waymo launch in Dallas by June 30 2026?	Yes	BUY	19	25¢	$5	0x056973…
06-09 13:59:10	will hood reach 100 in june 2026	Yes	SELL	39	37¢	$14	0xcb66a0…
06-09 10:18:22	ethereal fdv above 25m one day after launch	No	SELL	21	32¢	$7	0xe96ae3…
06-09 09:59:10	Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June?	Yes	SELL	16	25¢	$4	0x383253…
06-09 09:59:04	Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June?	Yes	SELL	6	25¢	$1	0xfe36e7…
06-09 09:59:00	Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June?	Yes	SELL	6	25¢	$1	0x360485…
06-08 23:30:55	Will Olivia Rodrigo release an album in 2026?	No	SELL	11	0¢	$0	0xa83306…
06-08 22:32:54	Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30?	Yes	BUY	60	8¢	$5	0xebc8da…
06-08 22:27:42	jung chung rae out as dp leader in 2026	No	BUY	47	12¢	$6	0xd91272…
06-08 22:26:45	Will Olivia Rodrigo release an album in 2026?	No	BUY	1,900	0¢	$4	0x60d3a2…
06-08 21:34:45	Altcoin market cap dip to $150B before 2027?	No	SELL	4	30¢	$1	0xecdfa0…
06-08 18:40:18	Will Iran Play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	161	3¢	$5	0x92e89d…
06-08 18:00:07	ethereal fdv above 25m one day after launch	No	BUY	21	23¢	$5	0xb31561…
06-08 17:59:25	Will Iran Play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	161	2¢	$4	0x536d0d…
06-08 17:58:42	Netanyahu drops out of Israel election by July 31?	Yes	BUY	72	8¢	$6	0xced4ed…
06-08 17:27:37	Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June?	Yes	BUY	27	18¢	$5	0x7e68d1…
06-07 16:47:39	Will Trump attend NATO Summit?	No	SELL	73	16¢	$12	0x1a9dfb…
06-06 20:53:27	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,800 by end of June?	Yes	SELL	80	11¢	$9	0x7bcf77…
06-05 19:58:48	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?	Yes	SELL	86	8¢	$7	0x096d08…
06-05 18:51:09	Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	209	3¢	$7	0x4b0959…
06-05 17:18:12	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,800 by end of June?	Yes	BUY	80	7¢	$6	0x8c2f12…
06-05 17:16:01	spacex ipo closing market cap above 2pt8t	Yes	BUY	75	9¢	$7	0x4443a2…
06-05 17:15:27	Altcoin market cap dip to $150B before 2027?	No	BUY	23	20¢	$5	0xe82de8…
06-05 17:14:39	AI data center moratorium passed before 2027?	No	BUY	77	9¢	$7	0x865924…
06-05 17:12:52	Will Trump attend NATO Summit?	No	BUY	73	11¢	$8	0x55b127…
06-05 17:12:19	will hood reach 100 in june 2026	Yes	BUY	39	25¢	$10	0x0262a1…
06-04 18:18:15	will hood reach 100 in june 2026	Yes	SELL	16	40¢	$6	0x6be000…
06-04 17:44:54	GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?	No	SELL	133	5¢	$7	0xb1a537…
06-04 13:42:52	GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?	No	SELL	51	5¢	$3	0x3f0bfe…
06-04 13:29:12	Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?	Yes	BUY	19	25¢	$5	0xe88174…
06-04 13:27:51	Will Donald Trump visit France in 2026?	No	BUY	200	2¢	$5	0x015bdd…
06-04 13:26:24	Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	209	2¢	$5	0x269a81…
06-04 07:22:37	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30?	Yes	SELL	79	3¢	$2	0x4653f8…
06-04 04:22:40	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30?	Yes	SELL	11	3¢	$0	0xe55eba…
06-04 04:16:40	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30?	Yes	SELL	89	3¢	$3	0x8cd91a…
06-04 04:14:42	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30?	Yes	SELL	50	3¢	$2	0xf18b3b…
06-04 03:59:30	Will Republicans lose House majority before the midterms?	Yes	SELL	71	22¢	$16	0x79e402…
06-03 22:06:27	Will OpenSea launch a token by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	558	1¢	$6	0xbb3f14…
06-03 22:04:49	GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?	No	BUY	184	3¢	$5	0xb25f46…
06-03 22:04:07	will hood reach 100 in june 2026	Yes	BUY	16	30¢	$5	0x26db13…
06-03 22:03:04	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30?	Yes	BUY	229	2¢	$5	0xc4cca6…
06-02 23:52:35	Anthropic IPO before 2027?	No	BUY	32	16¢	$5	0x02d24f…
06-02 23:50:08	Will o1 launch a token by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	38	13¢	$5	0x4a2802…
06-02 23:48:35	Will Republicans lose House majority before the midterms?	Yes	BUY	71	14¢	$10	0x1a5933…
06-02 23:16:14	Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?	Yes	SELL	167	4¢	$7	0xe23f8e…
05-29 14:04:04	Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $8,000 (HIGH) in June?	Yes	SELL	59	11¢	$6	0x4b6d5d…
05-29 07:29:51	Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup?	No	SELL	176	4¢	$7	0x66dc60…
05-29 02:49:09	Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by June 30?	Yes	SELL	28	30¢	$9	0x17a5d3…
05-28 22:54:52	Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by June 30?	Yes	BUY	28	20¢	$6	0xec7adf…
05-28 22:54:25	Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?	Yes	BUY	167	3¢	$5	0x97b604…
05-24 07:16:52	Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	7¢	$7	0xc5f179…
05-23 16:10:50	Solstice FDV above $50M one day after launch?	No	SELL	121	5¢	$7	0xcbb72d…
05-22 04:16:02	Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by May 31?	Yes	SELL	13	40¢	$5	0xfcd52b…
05-21 22:08:13	Solstice FDV above $50M one day after launch?	No	BUY	121	4¢	$5	0x747b5e…
05-17 22:33:36	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	Yes	SELL	357	2¢	$7	0x74402c…
05-17 12:02:04	Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	129	2¢	$3	0xbc8f1c…
05-15 23:05:53	Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	333	1¢	$5	0xf62ff2…
05-15 23:05:10	Will there be at least 1900 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	94	5¢	$5	0x9f3879…
05-15 10:50:27	Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,500 by end of June?	No	BUY	25	20¢	$5	0x72a4b4…
05-15 10:48:28	Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $280 in May?	Yes	BUY	17	29¢	$5	0x4a55e8…
05-14 23:06:52	Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $114 in May?	Yes	BUY	24	16¢	$4	0xb391ef…