Timely-Disparity — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$554

Unrealized P&L

-$20

Hit rate

56.9%

Resolved

Trades

1,044

lifetime

Volume

$201.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$193

Open exposure

$772

6 positions

First seen

2026-02-06

last 07-18 10:08

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

48% — —

Politics

28% 0% $-636

Crypto

21% 100% +$83

Tech

2% — —

Sports

1% — —

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

47 active days in 12wk • peak 27 trades/day

Open positions (6) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
GTA 6 launch postponed again?	No	+202	$182	92¢	$185	+$3	07-01 06:49
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026	Yes	+250	$175	70¢	$175	+$0	06-01 13:48
Will there be at least 3000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	Yes	+200	$150	86¢	$173	+$23	07-06 13:04
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	+255	$171	68¢	$172	+$1	07-03 04:56
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	No	+78	$67	86¢	$67	+$1	07-01 06:53
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026?	No	+70	$48	0¢	$0	$-48	05-31 02:49

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will bitcoin dip to 55k in february 2026 644 513 935	10	$11.0K	6,989	4,597	+2,392	open	—	02-28 20:58
will trump say jesus this week march 8	5	$5.2K	2,605	2,605	+0	open	—	03-10 01:46
spx opens up or down on february 17 2026	12	$4.2K	2,587	3,000	-413	open	—	02-17 12:34
us strikes iran by february 24 2026	3	$4.2K	4,326	0	+4,326	open	—	02-24 07:20
will us or israel strike iran on march 3 2026	5	$4.1K	3,806	343	+3,464	open	—	03-03 07:50
us strikes iran by february 22 2026	2	$4.1K	4,177	0	+4,177	open	—	02-22 08:26
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	13	$2.9K	1,500	1,500	+0	open	—	05-14 06:39
will pheu thai party pt win the most seats in the 2026 thai legislative election	4	$2.7K	1,376	1,376	+0	open	—	02-08 22:46
Opinion FDV above $500M one day after launch?	5	$2.6K	2,772	0	+2,772	open	—	03-06 12:48
us forces enter iran by march 7	3	$2.5K	2,589	0	+2,589	open	—	03-07 04:52
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	4	$2.5K	1,283	1,283	+0	open	—	02-16 00:46
us strikes iran by february 23 2026 678 563	1	$2.2K	2,197	0	+2,197	open	—	02-23 08:21
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	2	$2.2K	1,120	1,120	+0	open	—	02-20 12:13
us strikes iran by february 21 2026	3	$2.2K	2,183	0	+2,183	open	—	02-21 07:59
us x iran ceasefire by march 2	2	$2.0K	2,041	0	+2,041	open	—	03-02 13:37
will another country strike iran by march 7 528	5	$2.0K	2,002	0	+2,002	open	—	03-08 02:46
will bitcoin reach 85k in february 2026	2	$2.0K	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	02-21 07:58
will logan pauls psa 10 pokmon illustrator sale price be over 4 million	4	$1.8K	1,828	0	+1,828	open	—	02-14 07:12
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	3	$1.7K	899	899	+0	open	—	03-02 07:17
Opinion FDV above $1B one day after launch?	4	$1.7K	875	875	+0	open	—	03-06 10:48
will wti reach 120 in june 2026 243	4	$1.6K	979	750	+229	open	—	06-26 03:50
will israel strike greater beirut by march 31	1	$1.6K	1,561	0	+1,561	open	—	03-02 01:27
will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	9	$1.6K	800	800	+0	open	—	03-06 07:58
Will Yodchanan Wongsawat be the next prime minister of Thailand?	5	$1.5K	753	753	+0	open	—	02-12 22:56
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April?	12	$1.4K	1,358	190	+1,169	open	—	04-25 19:41
will bitcoin dip to 60000 in february 694	3	$1.4K	1,445	0	+1,445	open	—	02-28 20:49
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May?	4	$1.3K	1,452	0	+1,452	open	—	05-19 09:42
will wti reach 95 in july 2026	3	$1.3K	1,378	0	+1,378	open	—	07-18 10:08
will bitcoin reach 80k in march 2026	12	$1.3K	1,133	500	+633	open	—	03-10 18:14
will mrbeasts latest video get 41 million or more views on week 1	3	$1.3K	852	725	+127	open	—	02-27 06:26

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-18 10:08:16	will wti reach 95 in july 2026	No	BUY	160	79¢	$126	0x4fc16f…
07-18 09:19:51	will wti reach 95 in july 2026	No	BUY	18	79¢	$14	0xcd39a9…
07-16 02:32:34	will bitcoin reach 72pt5k in july 2026	No	BUY	300	92¢	$276	0xa70e01…
07-13 07:53:44	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	SELL	250	100¢	$249	0x711e56…
07-07 07:16:59	will bitcoin dip to 52pt5k in july 2026 976	No	BUY	125	90¢	$112	0x17f249…
07-06 13:04:34	Will there be at least 3000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	75¢	$4	0xaf3c03…
07-06 12:24:59	Will there be at least 3000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	75¢	$38	0x2fee0d…
07-06 12:24:55	Will there be at least 3000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	Yes	BUY	124	75¢	$93	0x4ea3ee…
07-06 07:19:04	will bitcoin dip to 47pt5k in july 2026	No	BUY	100	96¢	$96	0x647d34…
07-06 07:18:52	will bitcoin dip to 50k in july 2026	No	BUY	200	95¢	$190	0xe1997f…
07-06 06:37:46	will msft reach 465 in july 2026	No	BUY	27	86¢	$23	0x98288f…
07-06 06:37:01	will tsla dip to 345 in july 2026	No	BUY	114	67¢	$76	0xc70065…
07-06 06:36:16	will tsla reach 465 in july 2026	No	BUY	301	83¢	$250	0x7ea941…
07-06 06:35:02	will spy reach 790 in july 2026	No	BUY	110	90¢	$99	0xdf051b…
07-06 06:34:41	will spy dip to 710 in july 2026	No	BUY	200	81¢	$162	0xb0c927…
07-06 03:52:05	Will there be at least 3000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	75¢	$15	0xa48d14…
07-06 03:43:05	will bitcoin dip to 52pt5k in july 2026	No	BUY	200	89¢	$178	0xc65d00…
07-05 07:49:46	will bitcoin reach 75k in july 2026	No	BUY	300	94¢	$281	0x99c131…
07-05 07:49:35	will bitcoin reach 72pt5k in july 2026	No	BUY	150	86¢	$129	0xc77ac2…
07-03 07:52:47	will bitcoin reach 70k in july 2026	No	BUY	130	80¢	$104	0x9cc3ed…
07-03 07:52:19	will bitcoin reach 72pt5k in july 2026	No	BUY	200	90¢	$180	0x291e54…
07-03 07:52:04	will bitcoin dip to 55k in july 2026	Yes	BUY	100	33¢	$33	0x573a53…
07-03 07:51:44	will bitcoin dip to 50k in july 2026	No	BUY	200	90¢	$180	0x153950…
07-03 07:51:28	will bitcoin dip to 47pt5k in july 2026	No	BUY	150	95¢	$142	0xacddef…
07-03 04:56:10	Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	BUY	255	67¢	$171	0x30ac65…
07-02 05:48:58	will wti dip to 65 by june 29 2026	No	BUY	145	93¢	$135	0x1ada67…
07-02 05:47:07	will a nation that has never won the world cup win in 2026 20260605003149811	No	BUY	250	79¢	$198	0xe46f98…
07-02 03:11:10	will wti dip to 55 in july 2026	No	BUY	200	96¢	$192	0x06317b…
07-02 03:10:11	will wti dip to 60 in july 2026 528	No	BUY	50	56¢	$28	0xd62430…
07-02 00:07:59	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	500	97¢	$484	0x5b86ec…
07-02 00:04:40	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	BUY	250	87¢	$218	0xc3a4e4…
07-02 00:01:22	will wti reach 80 in july 2026 791	No	BUY	150	83¢	$124	0x37ffec…
07-01 14:23:23	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	250	31¢	$77	0x6ec43e…
07-01 10:37:38	will wti dip to 55 in july 2026	No	BUY	73	97¢	$71	0x3b28dd…
07-01 09:55:20	will wti dip to 55 in july 2026	No	BUY	158	97¢	$153	0x9947ad…
07-01 09:43:11	will wti dip to 60 in july 2026 528	No	BUY	350	82¢	$287	0x176c79…
07-01 08:36:56	will wti reach 95 in july 2026	No	BUY	1,200	94¢	$1,132	0x9e86bc…
07-01 07:30:25	will wti dip to 60 in july 2026 528	No	BUY	350	82¢	$287	0x5ab1b6…
07-01 07:30:05	will wti dip to 60 in july 2026 528	No	BUY	200	82¢	$164	0xb0a990…
07-01 07:01:34	will bitcoin reach 62k june 29 july 5 2026	No	BUY	110	76¢	$84	0xdf2131…
07-01 07:00:31	bitcoin above 60k on july 1 2026	No	BUY	150	91¢	$136	0x285f4f…
07-01 06:56:11	will wti reach 100 in july 2026 928	No	BUY	410	96¢	$394	0x37e46f…
07-01 06:55:25	will wti dip to 55 in july 2026	No	BUY	40	97¢	$39	0xe1cc36…
07-01 06:55:25	will wti dip to 55 in july 2026	No	BUY	129	97¢	$125	0x53225d…
07-01 06:53:34	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	No	BUY	78	85¢	$67	0x5951bb…
07-01 06:49:59	GTA 6 launch postponed again?	No	BUY	202	90¢	$182	0x1e33bc…
07-01 03:42:20	us iran final nuclear deal by august 18 2026 20260621201255153	No	BUY	280	81¢	$227	0x9cc862…
07-01 01:13:43	will wti dip to 60 in july 2026 528	No	BUY	500	84¢	$420	0x2f5681…
07-01 00:55:25	will anthropics valuation hit high 3pt0t by december 31	No	BUY	250	82¢	$205	0xf78d23…
07-01 00:50:20	will wti reach 90 in july 2026 334	No	BUY	107	90¢	$96	0x22bd29…
07-01 00:49:38	will wti reach 100 in july 2026 928	No	BUY	600	95¢	$570	0xf0a4fe…
06-26 03:52:31	will wti crude oil wti hit low 65 in june 765	No	BUY	71	93¢	$66	0x43178d…
06-26 03:52:10	will wti reach 80 in june 2026 from june 16	No	BUY	30	95¢	$29	0x126f75…
06-26 03:51:20	will wti crude oil wti hit low 65 in june 765	No	BUY	709	92¢	$652	0x7355b4…
06-26 03:50:28	will wti reach 120 in june 2026 243	No	SELL	750	100¢	$748	0xdc2790…
06-23 23:59:31	will wti crude oil wti hit low 65 in june 765	No	BUY	22	91¢	$20	0x738938…
06-22 02:13:17	will wti reach 85 in june 2026 from june 16	No	BUY	237	84¢	$199	0x1aff6b…
06-22 02:12:35	will wti reach 90 in june 2026 from june 16	No	BUY	300	93¢	$279	0xdfed67…
06-20 08:08:13	will spacexs valuation hit low 1pt5t by june 30	No	BUY	219	95¢	$208	0x9912d1…
06-19 12:50:53	will spacexs valuation hit high 3pt0t by june 30	No	BUY	32	89¢	$28	0x73e007…
06-19 12:47:11	will wti dip to 60 in june 2026 371 314 412	No	BUY	172	94¢	$163	0xb6a365…
06-19 11:39:20	will spacexs valuation hit high 3pt0t by june 30	No	BUY	5	89¢	$4	0x0c517f…
06-19 10:15:38	will spacexs valuation hit high 3pt0t by june 30	No	BUY	5	89¢	$4	0x6738f3…
06-19 09:53:23	will spacexs valuation hit high 3pt0t by june 30	No	BUY	0	89¢	$0	0xcf6031…
06-19 09:51:56	will spacexs valuation hit high 3pt0t by june 30	No	BUY	16	89¢	$14	0xe67cb3…
06-19 09:48:13	will spacexs valuation hit high 3pt0t by june 30	No	BUY	5	89¢	$4	0xba86f2…
06-19 09:41:52	will spacexs valuation hit high 3pt0t by june 30	No	BUY	5	89¢	$4	0xb94268…
06-19 09:33:43	will spacexs valuation hit high 3pt0t by june 30	No	BUY	5	89¢	$4	0x1bf5a6…
06-19 09:17:02	will spacexs valuation hit high 3pt0t by june 30	No	BUY	5	89¢	$4	0x790532…
06-19 08:50:46	will spacexs valuation hit high 3pt0t by june 30	No	BUY	18	89¢	$16	0x01fd0f…
06-19 08:48:58	will spacexs valuation hit high 3pt0t by june 30	No	BUY	5	89¢	$4	0xd57bc2…
06-19 08:26:14	will spacexs valuation hit low 1pt5t by june 30	No	BUY	120	94¢	$113	0x368f20…
06-19 08:24:49	will wti crude oil wti hit low 65 in june 765	No	BUY	115	88¢	$102	0xff5271…
06-19 08:23:38	will wti dip to 70 in june 2026 532 385 742	No	BUY	162	65¢	$105	0x27b133…
06-19 07:43:47	will wti dip to 60 in june 2026 371 314 412	No	BUY	18	94¢	$17	0x96ff15…
06-19 07:11:11	will wti reach 95 in june 2026 from june 10	No	BUY	10	92¢	$9	0x1852f0…
06-19 07:10:29	will wti dip to 60 in june 2026 371 314 412	No	BUY	10	94¢	$9	0x478856…
06-19 06:59:10	will wti reach 90 in june 2026 from june 16	No	BUY	50	81¢	$40	0xf9c22e…
06-19 06:58:11	will wti reach 85 in june 2026 from june 16	No	BUY	25	65¢	$16	0x896087…
06-19 05:18:34	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	No	BUY	254	80¢	$202	0xd6b4c6…
06-19 02:27:13	will bitcoin dip to 52pt5k in june 2026	No	BUY	250	92¢	$231	0x712330…
06-19 02:27:01	will bitcoin reach 70000 in june 2026 from june 2	No	BUY	150	91¢	$136	0xa3bb93…
06-19 01:07:02	will spacexs valuation hit low 1pt5t by june 30	No	BUY	12	92¢	$12	0xbf5e21…
06-19 00:42:47	will spacexs valuation hit high 3pt0t by june 30	No	BUY	256	89¢	$228	0x554a5c…
06-19 00:41:40	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	250	56¢	$140	0x0bff70…
06-19 00:40:16	will trump agree to iranian transit fees in the strait of hormuz by june 30	No	BUY	250	89¢	$224	0x0fc5e3…
06-18 09:19:41	will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	No	SELL	110	13¢	$14	0x063432…
06-16 07:02:51	will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	No	BUY	110	71¢	$78	0x97b53f…
06-16 02:36:40	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Yes	BUY	150	29¢	$44	0x6970e5…
06-15 06:37:10	will wti crude oil wti hit low 65 in june 765	No	BUY	323	93¢	$300	0x53c073…
06-15 00:29:15	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	592	84¢	$500	0x53bb42…
06-14 23:47:21	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	Yes	BUY	500	83¢	$417	0x87e80b…
06-14 23:46:58	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	SELL	200	16¢	$32	0xa24bea…
06-14 19:41:07	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by july 31 2026	Yes	BUY	29	77¢	$22	0x9e380c…
06-14 19:32:27	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by july 31 2026	Yes	BUY	4	77¢	$3	0x635c91…
06-14 19:01:51	trump announces us x iran ceasefire over by june 15 20260607232556275 193	No	BUY	153	98¢	$151	0x9b4647…
06-14 00:32:27	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	78	76¢	$59	0x7e7d2d…
06-14 00:23:04	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	5	76¢	$4	0x79ea75…
06-10 16:47:49	will tsla dip to 330 in june 2026	No	BUY	35	81¢	$28	0xd2bf95…
06-10 03:35:40	will wti reach 110 in june 2026 658 257 353	No	BUY	550	87¢	$478	0xd6c5d9…