Timely-Disparity — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$554

Unrealized P&L

+$33

Hit rate

56.9%

Resolved

Trades

944

lifetime

Volume

$186.2K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$197

Open exposure

$487

4 positions

First seen

2026-02-06

last 06-07 20:52

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

46% — —

Politics

30% 0% $-636

Crypto

21% 100% +$83

Tech

2% — —

Sports

1% — —

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

47 active days in 12wk • peak 35 trades/day

Open positions (4) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets (8)

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026	Yes	+250	$175	71¢	$178	+$2	06-01 13:48
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?	No	+200	$116	64¢	$129	+$13	06-05 21:18
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?	No	+150	$116	80¢	$121	+$5	06-05 19:56
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026?	No	+70	$48	86¢	$60	+$12	05-31 02:49

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will bitcoin dip to 55k in february 2026 644 513 935	10	$11.0K	6,989	4,597	+2,392	open	—	02-28 20:58
will trump say jesus this week march 8	5	$5.2K	2,605	2,605	+0	open	—	03-10 01:46
spx opens up or down on february 17 2026	12	$4.2K	2,587	3,000	-413	open	—	02-17 12:34
us strikes iran by february 24 2026	3	$4.2K	4,326	0	+4,326	open	—	02-24 07:20
will us or israel strike iran on march 3 2026	5	$4.1K	3,806	343	+3,464	open	—	03-03 07:50
us strikes iran by february 22 2026	2	$4.1K	4,177	0	+4,177	open	—	02-22 08:26
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	13	$2.9K	1,500	1,500	+0	open	—	05-14 06:39
will pheu thai party pt win the most seats in the 2026 thai legislative election	4	$2.7K	1,376	1,376	+0	open	—	02-08 22:46
Opinion FDV above $500M one day after launch?	5	$2.6K	2,772	0	+2,772	open	—	03-06 12:48
us forces enter iran by march 7	3	$2.5K	2,589	0	+2,589	open	—	03-07 04:52
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	4	$2.5K	1,283	1,283	+0	open	—	02-16 00:46
us strikes iran by february 23 2026 678 563	1	$2.2K	2,197	0	+2,197	open	—	02-23 08:21
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	2	$2.2K	1,120	1,120	+0	open	—	02-20 12:13
us strikes iran by february 21 2026	3	$2.2K	2,183	0	+2,183	open	—	02-21 07:59
us x iran ceasefire by march 2	2	$2.0K	2,041	0	+2,041	open	—	03-02 13:37
will another country strike iran by march 7 528	5	$2.0K	2,002	0	+2,002	open	—	03-08 02:46
will bitcoin reach 85k in february 2026	2	$2.0K	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	02-21 07:58
will logan pauls psa 10 pokmon illustrator sale price be over 4 million	4	$1.8K	1,828	0	+1,828	open	—	02-14 07:12
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	3	$1.7K	899	899	+0	open	—	03-02 07:17
Opinion FDV above $1B one day after launch?	4	$1.7K	875	875	+0	open	—	03-06 10:48
will israel strike greater beirut by march 31	1	$1.6K	1,561	0	+1,561	open	—	03-02 01:27
will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	9	$1.6K	800	800	+0	open	—	03-06 07:58
Will Yodchanan Wongsawat be the next prime minister of Thailand?	5	$1.5K	753	753	+0	open	—	02-12 22:56
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April?	12	$1.4K	1,358	190	+1,169	open	—	04-25 19:41
will bitcoin dip to 60000 in february 694	3	$1.4K	1,445	0	+1,445	open	—	02-28 20:49
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May?	4	$1.3K	1,452	0	+1,452	open	—	05-19 09:42
will bitcoin reach 80k in march 2026	12	$1.3K	1,133	500	+633	open	—	03-10 18:14
will mrbeasts latest video get 41 million or more views on week 1	3	$1.3K	852	725	+127	open	—	02-27 06:26
us strikes iran by february 27 2026	1	$1.3K	1,309	0	+1,309	open	—	02-27 22:44
Will Jasmine Crockett and John Cornyn be the candidates for the Texas Senate Election?	4	$1.2K	622	622	+0	open	—	03-06 07:59

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-07 20:52:49	will tsla dip to 330 in june 2026	No	BUY	165	81¢	$134	0x2990cd…
06-05 21:18:52	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?	No	BUY	150	58¢	$87	0x939f1d…
06-05 20:09:06	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?	No	BUY	50	58¢	$29	0xc88651…
06-05 19:56:01	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?	No	BUY	136	77¢	$104	0xe37afc…
06-05 19:31:24	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?	No	BUY	14	77¢	$11	0x1a669d…
06-05 19:30:19	spacex ipo closing market cap above 2pt8t	No	BUY	400	92¢	$368	0x44923d…
06-05 16:06:09	will tsla dip to 345 in june 2026	No	BUY	200	82¢	$164	0xc82cb3…
06-04 22:24:06	will googl reach 420 in june 2026	No	BUY	100	86¢	$86	0xd1b33f…
06-04 16:24:13	will meta reach 720 in june 2026	No	BUY	100	85¢	$85	0x5a3d72…
06-04 15:38:18	will meta reach 720 in june 2026	No	BUY	100	85¢	$85	0xa16dad…
06-04 13:33:28	will meta reach 740 in june 2026	No	BUY	350	91¢	$318	0xf764a0…
06-04 13:32:39	will meta reach 740 in june 2026	No	BUY	50	91¢	$46	0x96ae4e…
06-04 13:32:24	will tsla reach 525 in june 2026	No	BUY	400	92¢	$368	0xa32457…
06-02 08:50:17	Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June?	No	BUY	110	95¢	$104	0x191bd7…
06-02 08:43:34	Will Bitcoin dip to $67,500 in June?	Yes	BUY	200	73¢	$146	0xf6de7b…
06-02 08:43:06	Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June?	No	BUY	100	84¢	$84	0xc51c07…
06-02 08:42:54	Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June?	No	BUY	100	84¢	$84	0xa8cea6…
06-02 02:23:33	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June?	No	BUY	36	70¢	$25	0x5360be…
06-02 00:14:40	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June?	No	BUY	1	62¢	$0	0xf25288…
06-01 23:40:29	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June?	No	BUY	11	62¢	$7	0x0dd822…
06-01 23:34:08	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June?	No	BUY	132	62¢	$82	0x47cc7f…
06-01 22:05:42	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June?	No	BUY	26	62¢	$16	0x160e6c…
06-01 22:05:38	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June?	No	BUY	31	62¢	$19	0xe35eb5…
06-01 21:57:47	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June?	No	BUY	104	70¢	$73	0x7ef708…
06-01 13:48:19	Nothing Ever Happens: 2026	Yes	BUY	243	70¢	$170	0x5e9e42…
06-01 13:25:04	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June?	No	BUY	373	88¢	$328	0xc2c75e…
06-01 08:25:42	Nothing Ever Happens: 2026	Yes	BUY	7	70¢	$5	0x9f2bce…
06-01 08:23:03	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?	No	BUY	101	79¢	$80	0x1bf216…
06-01 02:57:15	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June?	No	BUY	595	88¢	$524	0x48ffb9…
05-31 20:54:24	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June?	No	BUY	12	77¢	$9	0xa18264…
05-31 19:02:29	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June?	No	BUY	205	77¢	$158	0xf50843…
05-31 17:38:39	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June?	No	BUY	24	77¢	$19	0xedb26d…
05-31 17:36:54	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June?	No	BUY	43	77¢	$33	0xb1ce36…
05-31 06:38:14	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June?	No	BUY	43	77¢	$33	0x41c7ee…
05-31 03:36:33	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June?	No	BUY	22	77¢	$17	0xebd6aa…
05-31 02:49:59	Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	8	68¢	$5	0xec9092…
05-31 01:02:58	Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	63	68¢	$43	0x9ce397…
05-31 00:24:28	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	75¢	$75	0x491936…
05-30 23:12:50	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	400	75¢	$300	0x30f62b…
05-30 22:55:58	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June?	No	BUY	11	88¢	$10	0x51adab…
05-30 21:47:42	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June?	No	BUY	87	77¢	$67	0x213608…
05-30 20:46:37	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in June?	No	BUY	188	98¢	$184	0x841644…
05-30 20:17:04	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?	Yes	BUY	277	72¢	$200	0x8928b1…
05-30 20:12:33	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?	Yes	BUY	18	72¢	$13	0xacc2cb…
05-30 20:11:27	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?	Yes	BUY	14	72¢	$10	0x071ec8…
05-30 19:50:09	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?	Yes	BUY	5	72¢	$3	0xda6f40…
05-30 19:39:16	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in June?	No	BUY	400	94¢	$376	0xa557ce…
05-30 19:38:55	Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in May?	No	BUY	300	98¢	$294	0x414a3c…
05-30 19:38:36	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?	Yes	BUY	186	72¢	$134	0x70698f…
05-30 19:38:06	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	No	BUY	500	89¢	$445	0x06130a…
05-30 19:36:23	Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in May?	No	BUY	200	82¢	$164	0x939cba…
05-30 13:18:02	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June?	No	BUY	4	77¢	$3	0x58d9f6…
05-30 13:17:34	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in June?	No	BUY	8	95¢	$8	0x035c47…
05-30 12:56:39	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in June?	No	BUY	590	95¢	$560	0xd16d68…
05-30 11:48:09	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in June?	No	BUY	2	95¢	$2	0x4e0b9a…
05-30 10:12:41	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in June?	No	BUY	500	84¢	$420	0xa50ca1…
05-30 09:42:24	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	200	85¢	$170	0x057381…
05-28 08:18:19	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?	No	BUY	222	89¢	$198	0xfa9a5a…
05-28 08:17:44	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,100 in May?	No	SELL	200	100¢	$199	0x783db1…
05-27 01:31:29	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?	No	BUY	546	91¢	$497	0x623283…
05-27 01:30:47	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May?	No	SELL	500	100¢	$498	0xf2b34a…
05-26 08:16:21	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?	No	BUY	120	89¢	$107	0xfbaa1d…
05-26 08:15:58	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	No	SELL	158	68¢	$108	0x9b274d…
05-26 07:38:54	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?	No	BUY	77	84¢	$65	0x47198b…
05-26 03:23:32	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	140	32¢	$45	0x1a50e1…
05-26 03:14:25	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	60	33¢	$20	0x3e5e73…
05-25 18:17:22	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	No	BUY	124	93¢	$115	0x2c74b1…
05-23 08:11:39	Israel closes its airspace by May 24?	No	BUY	115	86¢	$99	0x284b4b…
05-23 08:06:42	Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May?	No	SELL	100	100¢	$100	0xa87b23…
05-22 05:48:07	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?	No	BUY	221	89¢	$197	0x14c6fe…
05-21 04:32:40	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	No	BUY	92	80¢	$74	0x3071dd…
05-21 04:32:00	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	No	BUY	125	80¢	$100	0x903767…
05-21 04:31:02	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	No	BUY	233	86¢	$200	0x1d8a09…
05-19 09:42:55	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May?	No	BUY	669	97¢	$646	0x4a211b…
05-19 09:42:30	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	No	BUY	100	87¢	$87	0xcc168f…
05-17 04:18:12	Iran closes its airspace by May 18?	No	BUY	200	96¢	$193	0x44c9f8…
05-17 04:11:52	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?	No	BUY	350	80¢	$280	0x797641…
05-17 04:10:49	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May?	No	BUY	700	89¢	$623	0x054ca9…
05-15 20:42:50	Will Greece be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	38	88¢	$33	0x89d3d2…
05-15 20:42:20	Will Norway be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	112	89¢	$100	0x33643e…
05-15 20:42:15	Will Malta be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	114	88¢	$100	0x433260…
05-15 20:42:11	Will Czechia be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	143	77¢	$110	0xc39ad9…
05-14 09:12:56	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May?	No	BUY	11	91¢	$10	0x547c6b…
05-14 09:11:53	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 16?	No	BUY	80	87¢	$70	0x91c67e…
05-14 09:11:30	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 16?	No	BUY	50	86¢	$43	0x834bfb…
05-14 09:10:32	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 14?	Yes	BUY	160	97¢	$156	0xcba27d…
05-14 09:07:08	Will Trump say "Covid" or "Pandemic" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	60	84¢	$50	0xe712f9…
05-14 09:06:05	Will Trump say "Peng" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	120	82¢	$98	0x420e1f…
05-14 09:05:47	Will Trump say "Tanker" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	100	87¢	$87	0x2b4a04…
05-14 07:06:33	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,100 in May?	No	BUY	176	94¢	$166	0x454933…
05-14 06:49:00	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,100 in May?	No	BUY	24	94¢	$22	0x714e80…
05-14 06:47:51	Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May?	No	BUY	100	98¢	$98	0xf94b5e…
05-14 06:47:39	Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May?	No	BUY	100	86¢	$86	0x84c292…
05-14 06:46:22	Will France be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	76¢	$38	0x4cfb1c…
05-14 06:45:42	Will Finland be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	800	97¢	$778	0xa1b86e…
05-14 06:44:46	Will Sweden be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	100	64¢	$64	0xdcae75…
05-14 06:44:28	Will Ukraine be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	99	68¢	$67	0xe8cba5…
05-14 06:44:14	Will France be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	150	76¢	$114	0x966b97…
05-14 06:42:24	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	No	SELL	41	47¢	$19	0xcf44d4…
05-14 06:42:22	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	No	SELL	260	47¢	$122	0x9ae850…

Wallet	Shared markets	Overlap volume	Overlap trades	Last seen
Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71	297	$1.85M	33,169	06-10 02:34
Pleasing-Elm 0x4ffe…9f71	289	$30.9K	8,810	06-08 12:04
(anonymous) 0xd6ee…37a2	286	$285.5K	28,018	04-01 06:17
Firsthand-Eaglet 0x1cdd…e595	245	$562.5K	39,377	06-10 02:35
Faraway-Seaside 0xf0b0…8cab	224	$589.9K	45,514	06-01 04:03
Arctic-Kickoff 0xa667…ceb3	221	$204.4K	2,017	06-08 23:17
(anonymous) 0xca8f…d963	214	$81.6K	26,774	04-26 14:40
Fragrant-Dandelion 0x1408…b4f8	212	$95.9K	20,124	05-11 12:23