Married-Weasel — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$15

Unrealized P&L

-$5

Hit rate

54.3%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$91

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-05-12

last 05-27 18:37

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 14 days

Categories

Other

53% 8% -$4

Crypto

32% 40% +$2

Politics

14% 0% -$13

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-05-27).

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (27) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Yes		+80	$7	2¢	$2	-$5	05-12 23:02

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	2	$25	38	38	+0	Yes	+$13	05-18 11:13
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	8	$20	30	26	+4	Down	+$6	05-13 14:03
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	1	$7	80	0	+80	open	—	05-12 23:02
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET	2	$6	17	0	+17	Down	-$6	05-12 22:58
Ebola case in the US by June 30?	1	$5	14	0	+14	No	-$5	05-27 18:37
Will Trump say "Dumbocrat" during Bret Baier interview?	2	$2	2,000	0	+2,000	Yes	-$2	05-18 21:08
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 14, 2026?	2	$2	1,111	0	+1,111	No	-$2	05-13 14:47
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	2	$2	1,500	0	+1,500	No	-$2	05-16 13:51
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 15 seconds or longer during the day of their next meeting in 2026?	1	$2	18	0	+18	No	-$2	05-14 07:41
Will China announce a Boeing aircraft purchase by May 22?	1	$2	4	0	+4	Yes	-$2	05-15 11:18
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May?	2	$1	14	14	+0	No	-$1	05-18 21:17
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	1	$1	8	0	+8	Down	-$1	05-12 23:07
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 15?	1	$1	500	0	+500	No	-$1	05-15 22:37
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	1	$1	250	0	+250	No	-$1	05-16 13:51
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?	1	$1	12	0	+12	No	-$1	05-27 18:25
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	1	$1	1,000	0	+1,000	No	-$1	05-15 22:32
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	1	$1	50	0	+50	No	-$1	05-18 21:01
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	1	$1	12	0	+12	No	-$1	05-15 22:32
Trump endorses China's claim to Taiwan this week?	1	$1	333	0	+333	No	-$1	05-15 11:23
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	1	$1	17	0	+17	No	-$1	05-15 22:28
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	1	$1	17	0	+17	No	-$1	05-16 13:51
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31?	1	$1	54	0	+54	No	-$1	05-15 22:35
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	1	$1	4	0	+4	Up	+$3	05-15 13:18
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	1	$1	9	0	+9	No	-$1	05-15 22:32
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?	1	$1	32	0	+32	No	-$1	05-15 22:28
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	1	$1	48	0	+48	No	-$1	05-18 21:01
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	1	$1	48	0	+48	No	-$1	05-18 21:01
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?	1	$1	111	0	+111	No	-$1	05-15 22:31

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-27 18:37:58	Ebola case in the US by June 30?	Yes	BUY	14	37¢	$5	0x2c6cd2…
05-27 18:25:57	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?	Yes	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0x160455…
05-18 21:17:42	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May?	Yes	SELL	14	4¢	$0	0x8d833b…
05-18 21:08:45	Will Trump say "Dumbocrat" during Bret Baier interview?	No	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0x30c205…
05-18 21:04:31	Will Trump say "Dumbocrat" during Bret Baier interview?	No	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0xefb035…
05-18 21:01:45	Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	48	2¢	$1	0x2e4253…
05-18 21:01:43	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	48	2¢	$1	0xc74318…
05-18 21:01:20	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x185ded…
05-18 11:13:03	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	Yes	SELL	38	50¢	$19	0xf2fabc…
05-17 15:53:39	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	38	16¢	$6	0x5a57bd…
05-16 13:51:41	Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0x31d43e…
05-16 13:51:36	Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	250	0¢	$1	0x1f6d4b…
05-16 13:51:20	Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0x1e2263…
05-15 22:37:45	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 15?	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$1	0x12de44…
05-15 22:35:12	Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31?	Yes	BUY	54	2¢	$1	0xb07cab…
05-15 22:32:58	Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$1	0x1eefae…
05-15 22:32:49	Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0x0fc152…
05-15 22:32:12	Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0xf8983e…
05-15 22:32:07	Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0x99b777…
05-15 22:31:44	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	111	1¢	$1	0xc74290…
05-15 22:31:20	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May?	Yes	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0x922d27…
05-15 22:28:56	Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?	Yes	BUY	32	3¢	$1	0x3b0b2d…
05-15 22:28:07	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0x31a317…
05-15 13:18:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	Up	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0x80d482…
05-15 11:23:12	Trump endorses China's claim to Taiwan this week?	Yes	BUY	333	0¢	$1	0x8ebf4d…
05-15 11:18:34	Will China announce a Boeing aircraft purchase by May 22?	No	BUY	4	57¢	$2	0x9be8d5…
05-14 07:41:40	Will Trump and Xi handshake last 15 seconds or longer during the day of their next meeting in 2026?	Yes	BUY	18	11¢	$2	0x06f902…
05-13 14:47:03	Will Donald Trump visit China on May 14, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0xbe3780…
05-13 14:03:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Up	SELL	26	51¢	$13	0x173b6e…
05-13 14:02:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Up	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0xc703a5…
05-13 14:02:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Up	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0x31096f…
05-13 14:01:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Up	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0x69f357…
05-13 14:01:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Up	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0x130eb7…
05-13 14:01:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Up	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x86b97e…
05-13 14:01:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Up	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0x60237b…
05-13 14:01:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Up	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0x21a1b0…
05-12 23:07:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	Up	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0x0021a1…
05-12 23:05:42	Will Donald Trump visit China on May 14, 2026?	Yes	BUY	111	1¢	$1	0xfd0b9c…
05-12 23:02:24	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Yes	BUY	80	9¢	$7	0x954cca…
05-12 22:58:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET	Up	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0xbb8a4c…
05-12 22:58:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET	Up	BUY	14	37¢	$5	0xafda42…