Realized P&L (90d)
-$1.63K
Unrealized P&L
+$41
Hit rate
38.7%
Resolved (90d)
71
Trades (90d)
374
3,753 lifetime
Volume (90d)
$10.5K
$741.4K lifetime
Avg / trade
$198
Open exposure
$1.48K
19 positions
First seen
2026-01-30
last 11-11 06:42
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 151 days
Categories
Politics
58% 57% -$17,503
Other
29% 43% +$2,900
Tech
6% 47% +$2,640
Crypto
5% 39% -$241
Sports
2% 48% +$1,824
Pop-Culture
0% 0% -$11
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
19 active days in 12wk • peak 103 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? Yes +1,198 $677 98¢ $1.2K +$492 10-24 15:54
Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 55% or higher? Yes +90 $82 98¢ $89 +$7 10-24 21:29
Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win LoL Worlds 2026? Yes +75 $62 62¢ $46 -$16 10-24 18:59
Viktor Orbán arrested by June 30, 2027? No +62 $30 56¢ $35 +$5 10-23 21:23
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? No +1,198 $516 2¢ $29 -$487 10-27 09:04
Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win LoL Worlds 2026? No +75 $12 38¢ $29 +$17 10-24 18:00
Viktor Orbán arrested by June 30, 2027? Yes +62 $32 44¢ $27 -$4 10-23 21:16
Will the Bank of Brazil make no change to the target for the Selic rate at the December meeting? Yes +20 $11 90¢ $18 +$7 10-27 09:03
Will OpenAI’s valuation be at least $1.30T at the end of November 2026? Yes +20 $14 52¢ $10 -$4 10-26 06:30
Will OpenAI’s valuation be at least $1.30T at the end of November 2026? No +20 $4 48¢ $10 +$5 10-26 04:30
Will the median home value in NYC be between $445,000 and $458,000 on December 31? No +10 $6 68¢ $7 +$0 10-25 19:34
Will T1 be number 1 on the end of year Global Power Rankings? No +2 $2 100¢ $2 +$0 10-26 17:20
Will the Bank of Brazil make no change to the target for the Selic rate at the December meeting? No +20 $14 10¢ $2 -$12 10-26 04:55
Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 55% or higher? No +90 $7 2¢ $1 -$6 10-26 00:41
Will Trump visit Greenland by December 31? No +1 $1 97¢ $1 +$0 06-06 10:22
Will Trump visit Greenland by December 31? Yes +1 $0 3¢ $0 +$0 06-18 15:22
Will T1 be number 1 on the end of year Global Power Rankings? Yes +2 $8 0¢ $0 -$8 10-27 09:04
Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch? No +0 -$20 11¢ $0 +$20 06-12 11:15
Printr FDV above $100M one day after launch? Yes +0 -$23 6¢ $0 +$23 07-15 13:19