Thrifty-Motion — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$225

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

56.8%

Resolved

Trades

4,945

lifetime

Volume

$329.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$67

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 08-12 16:01

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 5 days

Categories

Politics

49% 0% $-235

Other

32% 67% +$5

Sports

10% — —

Tech

5% 100% +$3

Crypto

4% 100% +$2

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

76 active days in 12wk • peak 82 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
world cup goalkeeper to score 20260607161409835	62	$22.6K	11,400	11,400	+0	open	—	07-19 23:48
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	57	$21.6K	14,637	7,969	+6,668	open	—	08-11 21:50
will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	27	$14.7K	8,200	6,700	+1,500	open	—	07-21 22:59
iran leadership change by august 31 669	24	$9.9K	5,270	5,270	+0	open	—	08-06 16:57
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	51	$9.6K	5,090	5,120	-30	open	—	03-03 18:05
will the us next strike iran on february 28 2026 et	112	$8.9K	4,955	4,511	+444	open	—	03-01 19:44
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	32	$7.5K	4,175	3,874	+301	open	—	06-03 22:34
will mrbeast hit 512 million subscribers by july 31 20260623145858516	39	$7.4K	7,905	1,066	+6,839	open	—	07-30 21:50
iran leadership change by july 31 20260629143932628	31	$6.7K	5,656	1,356	+4,300	open	—	07-28 22:13
Iran leadership change by December 31?	39	$5.5K	5,370	5,370	+0	open	—	08-10 04:38
Will Neymar play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	54	$5.1K	3,834	2,065	+1,768	open	—	06-24 23:37
spacex ipo closing market cap above 3pt2t	22	$4.8K	3,077	2,177	+900	open	—	06-12 16:12
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	21	$4.7K	3,000	3,000	-0	open	—	08-02 00:15
spacex ipo closing market cap above 3pt4t	17	$3.8K	3,951	0	+3,951	open	—	06-12 16:11
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	30	$3.1K	2,355	1,967	+388	open	—	03-30 20:32
will the us next strike iran on march 1 2026 et	26	$3.1K	1,571	1,689	-119	open	—	02-28 11:22
will the us next strike iran on february 21 2026 et	31	$2.8K	1,450	1,450	+0	open	—	02-20 17:43
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	6	$2.7K	1,500	1,500	+0	open	—	07-24 19:30
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	59	$2.6K	4,204	2,571	+1,634	open	—	06-16 17:05
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	51	$2.4K	1,788	1,788	+0	open	—	04-21 20:45
Internet Access restored in Iran by June 30, 2026?	114	$2.3K	2,491	2,233	+258	open	—	05-27 19:06
Will MrBeast hit 485 million subscribers by April 30?	18	$2.3K	1,198	1,207	-9	open	—	04-20 01:32
internet access restored in iran by april 30 2026	49	$2.3K	1,758	1,037	+721	open	—	04-27 05:35
will the us not strike iran by february 28 2026	39	$2.2K	1,377	1,182	+195	open	—	02-27 23:54
iran leadership change by september 30 20260629144005163 739	41	$2.2K	5,678	5,678	+0	open	—	08-05 21:45
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	54	$2.1K	1,799	1,735	+64	open	—	05-23 21:53
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	12	$2.1K	1,156	1,156	+0	open	—	02-05 15:32
US strikes Iran by March 7, 2026?	28	$2.1K	1,694	1,994	-300	open	—	02-28 01:01
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	10	$2.0K	1,235	1,235	+0	open	—	02-26 18:27
will the us not strike iran by january 31 2026 314	11	$2.0K	1,056	1,056	+0	open	—	02-01 13:53

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-12 16:01:03	will anthropic ipo by september 30 2026 733	No	BUY	69	87¢	$60	0x715dd0…
08-12 09:33:24	will anthropic ipo by september 30 2026 733	No	BUY	115	87¢	$100	0xea20f5…
08-12 09:01:12	will anthropic ipo by september 30 2026 733	No	BUY	15	87¢	$13	0x0ca457…
08-11 21:50:39	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	No	BUY	18	94¢	$17	0x25b968…
08-11 20:55:45	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	No	BUY	83	94¢	$79	0x5925f8…
08-11 20:53:04	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	No	BUY	89	94¢	$84	0x27a2a8…
08-11 20:49:54	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	No	BUY	12	94¢	$11	0xb816ea…
08-11 19:49:10	will mrbeast hit 525 million subscribers by august 31 20260730200401402	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0xce4254…
08-11 15:21:48	iran leadership change by june 30 2027 674 937 179 655	No	BUY	87	68¢	$59	0x5dfb6f…
08-11 15:21:45	iran leadership change by june 30 2027 674 937 179 655	No	BUY	400	68¢	$272	0xab09fa…
08-11 11:02:13	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	No	BUY	500	95¢	$476	0xfc6db1…
08-11 09:46:19	will anthropic ipo by september 30 2026 733	No	BUY	9	84¢	$8	0xfeadf9…
08-11 09:43:57	will anthropic ipo by september 30 2026 733	No	BUY	11	84¢	$10	0x5ce9ce…
08-11 09:43:52	will anthropic ipo by september 30 2026 733	No	BUY	12	84¢	$10	0x7e508a…
08-11 09:39:21	will anthropic ipo by september 30 2026 733	No	BUY	12	84¢	$10	0xba877b…
08-11 09:37:22	will anthropic ipo by september 30 2026 733	No	BUY	12	84¢	$10	0xf69aa6…
08-11 09:36:01	will anthropic ipo by september 30 2026 733	No	BUY	12	84¢	$10	0x51e03e…
08-11 09:35:06	will anthropic ipo by september 30 2026 733	No	BUY	11	84¢	$10	0xe5f8f4…
08-11 09:34:51	will anthropic ipo by september 30 2026 733	No	BUY	4	84¢	$4	0x7cde6f…
08-10 08:11:39	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	No	SELL	327	97¢	$318	0xaf8865…
08-10 08:11:27	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	No	SELL	1,633	97¢	$1,587	0xbf9d9d…
08-10 04:38:54	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	SELL	694	20¢	$139	0xe50694…
08-10 03:35:57	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	SELL	5	20¢	$1	0x1b5a29…
08-10 00:05:48	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	SELL	105	20¢	$21	0x259d39…
08-09 21:19:33	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	SELL	7	20¢	$1	0x6805e2…
08-09 20:57:40	iran leadership change by august 15	No	BUY	300	98¢	$296	0x2a0a99…
08-09 19:35:37	iran leadership change by august 15	No	BUY	556	99¢	$550	0xe36dfe…
08-09 19:35:12	iran leadership change by august 15	No	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0xbd1571…
08-09 19:20:55	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	SELL	494	20¢	$99	0x0630bd…
08-09 16:17:27	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	No	SELL	460	97¢	$446	0x520501…
08-09 16:17:27	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	No	SELL	43	97¢	$42	0x09bd73…
08-09 15:46:28	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	No	SELL	70	97¢	$68	0xe90243…
08-09 15:19:52	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	No	SELL	4	97¢	$4	0x1b1a8b…
08-09 07:54:25	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	No	SELL	100	97¢	$97	0xb9a164…
08-09 07:53:28	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	No	SELL	200	97¢	$194	0xae4122…
08-09 01:40:37	will anthropic ipo by september 30 2026 733	No	BUY	201	90¢	$181	0xe92bad…
08-09 01:36:55	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	No	SELL	10	97¢	$10	0xaf3efd…
08-08 22:06:39	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	No	SELL	40	97¢	$39	0xc6e190…
08-08 19:25:33	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	No	SELL	18	97¢	$18	0x042164…
08-08 19:23:51	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	No	SELL	18	97¢	$18	0x112eed…
08-08 14:51:25	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	No	SELL	6	97¢	$6	0xc937c6…
08-08 11:21:22	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	SELL	135	93¢	$126	0x144e27…
08-08 11:18:36	iran leadership change by august 15	No	SELL	132	99¢	$130	0xd09d2d…
08-08 10:28:46	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	No	SELL	5	97¢	$5	0xab9452…
08-08 01:59:34	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	BUY	84	72¢	$60	0x8e3460…
08-08 01:36:45	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	BUY	8	72¢	$6	0xea7895…
08-08 01:34:36	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	BUY	8	72¢	$6	0xf00d57…
08-08 00:43:55	iran leadership change by august 15	No	BUY	646	98¢	$632	0x6b7a2f…
08-08 00:17:34	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	No	SELL	158	97¢	$153	0x8d0cdb…
08-07 23:45:37	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	No	SELL	729	97¢	$707	0x93dc19…
08-07 12:45:49	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	BUY	500	22¢	$110	0xe2a428…
08-07 12:45:49	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	BUY	7	22¢	$1	0x2f66e2…
08-07 11:48:27	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	BUY	80	23¢	$18	0x1f6fd8…
08-07 11:48:12	Will GameStop acquire eBay?	No	SELL	400	87¢	$348	0x38b769…
08-07 11:47:55	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	BUY	25	23¢	$6	0x8120df…
08-07 11:40:19	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	BUY	200	23¢	$46	0xc02b8e…
08-07 10:14:36	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	No	SELL	600	97¢	$582	0xde9d8e…
08-06 19:31:15	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	No	BUY	250	95¢	$238	0x33e4e3…
08-06 18:34:42	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	No	BUY	863	95¢	$823	0xe64fed…
08-06 18:33:30	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	SELL	1,000	16¢	$160	0xda1857…
08-06 18:32:08	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	No	BUY	351	95¢	$334	0x938346…
08-06 18:12:14	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	No	BUY	451	96¢	$431	0xfc6322…
08-06 18:03:30	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	No	BUY	1,801	96¢	$1,720	0x7b1a63…
08-06 17:52:53	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	No	BUY	18	95¢	$18	0x4b3fe6…
08-06 17:41:36	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	No	BUY	19	95¢	$18	0xd1c7f5…
08-06 17:30:57	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	No	BUY	29	95¢	$27	0xa5bab6…
08-06 17:19:00	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	No	BUY	28	95¢	$26	0xb4f601…
08-06 17:18:41	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	No	BUY	30	95¢	$28	0x4634f2…
08-06 17:18:20	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	No	BUY	30	95¢	$29	0x767c64…
08-06 17:09:48	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	No	BUY	501	96¢	$478	0xc47e2f…
08-06 17:05:33	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	No	BUY	1,302	96¢	$1,244	0xf712bd…
08-06 17:00:48	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	SELL	100	85¢	$85	0x320ca9…
08-06 17:00:14	will samuel alito announce his retirement by september 30 2026 20260630151901966	No	SELL	325	96¢	$313	0x5d590f…
08-06 16:59:06	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	No	BUY	1,002	96¢	$957	0x56b553…
08-06 16:57:48	iran leadership change by august 31 669	No	SELL	2,032	97¢	$1,971	0x897dc8…
08-06 16:53:30	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	No	BUY	1,503	96¢	$1,435	0x778f50…
08-06 12:40:18	iran leadership change by august 31 669	No	BUY	600	97¢	$583	0x71702b…
08-06 11:51:36	iran leadership change by august 31 669	No	BUY	115	97¢	$112	0x1e32c3…
08-06 07:59:44	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	No	SELL	189	97¢	$184	0x5b5ebf…
08-06 05:23:41	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	Yes	SELL	50	57¢	$28	0xa547a6…
08-06 01:07:03	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	Yes	SELL	70	58¢	$41	0xfe7ec5…
08-06 00:03:54	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	Yes	SELL	5	55¢	$3	0x1e45d4…
08-05 22:40:50	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	Yes	SELL	1	58¢	$0	0xc2b831…
08-05 22:26:08	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	Yes	SELL	11	58¢	$6	0x6d153c…
08-05 21:45:11	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	Yes	SELL	17	58¢	$10	0xd0aaa7…
08-05 21:45:05	iran leadership change by september 30 20260629144005163 739	Yes	SELL	419	6¢	$25	0x2ad515…
08-05 21:45:02	will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	Yes	SELL	1	58¢	$1	0xacf412…
08-05 21:44:44	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	No	SELL	30	97¢	$29	0x03d642…
08-05 19:10:44	Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?	No	SELL	289	97¢	$281	0xfb53c9…
08-05 16:22:50	iran leadership change by september 30 20260629144005163 739	Yes	SELL	1	6¢	$0	0x1f532e…
08-05 15:48:42	iran leadership change by september 30 20260629144005163 739	Yes	SELL	16	6¢	$1	0x519fbd…
08-05 15:19:02	iran leadership change by september 30 20260629144005163 739	Yes	SELL	12	6¢	$1	0x5a4c13…
08-05 15:16:44	iran leadership change by september 30 20260629144005163 739	Yes	SELL	7	6¢	$0	0x96a19a…
08-05 15:16:41	iran leadership change by september 30 20260629144005163 739	Yes	SELL	0	6¢	$0	0xa22226…
08-05 15:16:41	iran leadership change by september 30 20260629144005163 739	Yes	SELL	8	6¢	$0	0x4d3d00…
08-05 15:16:41	iran leadership change by september 30 20260629144005163 739	Yes	SELL	0	6¢	$0	0x14f2ef…
08-05 14:58:41	iran leadership change by september 30 20260629144005163 739	Yes	SELL	0	6¢	$0	0xa99ba8…
08-05 14:58:39	iran leadership change by september 30 20260629144005163 739	Yes	SELL	0	6¢	$0	0xdebc54…
08-05 14:19:15	Will GameStop acquire eBay?	No	BUY	300	87¢	$261	0xf7a408…
08-05 11:41:33	will anthropic ipo by september 30 2026 733	No	BUY	500	95¢	$475	0x5a1f92…