Secondary-Shock — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$138

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

64.3%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$2.41K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$29

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-02-25

last 08-05 14:28

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Other

57% — —

Crypto

31% 67% +$138

Politics

12% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

6 active days in 12wk • peak 15 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (12) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $72 in May?	23	$804	1,664	0	+1,664	open	—	05-27 07:43
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	12	$385	490	490	+0	open	—	04-30 13:33
will us or israel strike iran on march 2 2026	1	$100	108	0	+108	open	—	02-28 14:17
russia x ukraine ceasefire agreement by august 31 2026	1	$99	103	0	+103	open	—	08-04 09:46
us iran final nuclear deal by august 31 2026 20260621201255154	1	$99	103	0	+103	open	—	08-04 09:46
will greece send warships through the strait of hormuz by august 31 2026 20260728213742053	1	$61	63	0	+63	open	—	08-05 02:39
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET	2	$50	114	0	+114	Up	+$64	05-06 06:27
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET	2	$50	143	0	+143	Up	+$93	05-06 06:23
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	2	$50	109	0	+109	Down	$-50	05-06 13:36
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET	2	$50	65	0	+65	Up	+$15	05-06 06:37
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET	2	$41	36	36	+0	Down	$-9	05-07 02:22
will australia send warships through the strait of hormuz by august 31 2026 20260728213742056	1	$39	40	0	+40	open	—	08-05 14:28
will france send warships through the strait of hormuz by august 31 2026 20260728213742050	1	$39	40	0	+40	open	—	08-04 09:47
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET	2	$36	53	53	+0	Down	$-14	05-07 02:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	3	$34	25	15	+10	open	—	04-29 08:39
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	3	$31	56	34	+22	open	—	04-29 08:32
will 100 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by august 31 2026 20260728213741057	1	$29	30	0	+30	open	—	08-05 02:08
XRP Up or Down - May 5, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	2	$26	47	47	+0	Down	$-24	05-05 13:19
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	1	$25	60	0	+60	Up	+$35	05-06 07:13
Solana Up or Down - April 30, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	1	$25	39	0	+39	open	—	04-30 13:34
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	1	$25	34	0	+34	open	—	04-30 13:37
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET	1	$25	32	0	+32	Up	+$7	05-06 05:41
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	1	$25	32	0	+32	open	—	04-30 14:07
Solana Up or Down - April 30, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	1	$25	30	0	+30	open	—	04-30 13:57
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	1	$25	40	0	+40	Up	+$15	05-05 13:06
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	1	$25	26	0	+26	open	—	04-30 13:33
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	1	$25	31	0	+31	Up	+$6	05-05 13:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	1	$25	27	0	+27	open	—	04-30 13:41
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	1	$25	27	0	+27	open	—	04-30 13:56
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET	1	$25	27	0	+27	Up	+$2	05-06 07:08

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-05 22:43:53	Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026?	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0xf743d2…
08-05 14:28:27	will australia send warships through the strait of hormuz by august 31 2026 20260728213742056	No	BUY	40	98¢	$39	0xb5fc60…
08-05 02:39:39	will greece send warships through the strait of hormuz by august 31 2026 20260728213742053	No	BUY	63	97¢	$61	0x230aa2…
08-05 02:08:51	will 100 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by august 31 2026 20260728213741057	No	BUY	30	98¢	$29	0xfdef91…
08-04 09:47:00	will france send warships through the strait of hormuz by august 31 2026 20260728213742050	No	BUY	40	98¢	$39	0xbbbc4d…
08-04 09:46:59	iaea visits isfahan fordow or natanz nuclear site by august 31	No	BUY	15	97¢	$15	0x6aa04c…
08-04 09:46:56	russia x ukraine ceasefire agreement by august 31 2026	No	BUY	103	96¢	$99	0x1958c4…
08-04 09:46:53	us iran final nuclear deal by august 31 2026 20260621201255154	No	BUY	103	96¢	$99	0x936eb2…
05-27 07:43:28	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $72 in May?	Yes	BUY	143	20¢	$29	0x61489b…
05-25 10:26:46	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $72 in May?	Yes	BUY	4	20¢	$1	0xfb13bc…
05-25 08:57:39	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $72 in May?	Yes	BUY	50	20¢	$10	0xc6b314…
05-25 08:29:39	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $72 in May?	Yes	BUY	11	20¢	$2	0x808aa7…
05-25 08:09:39	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $72 in May?	Yes	BUY	50	20¢	$10	0x7ad608…
05-25 05:10:18	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $72 in May?	Yes	BUY	125	20¢	$25	0xe5929e…
05-25 01:22:06	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $72 in May?	Yes	BUY	386	25¢	$96	0xb752c0…
05-24 14:46:27	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $72 in May?	Yes	BUY	23	27¢	$6	0x6f8843…
05-24 02:08:59	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $72 in May?	No	BUY	31	86¢	$27	0x4df509…
05-24 02:08:54	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $72 in May?	No	BUY	8	86¢	$7	0x00ac03…
05-24 02:08:22	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $72 in May?	No	BUY	50	86¢	$43	0xcc9296…
05-24 02:08:22	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $72 in May?	No	BUY	50	86¢	$43	0xa70452…
05-24 02:08:03	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $72 in May?	No	BUY	25	86¢	$22	0x9b9bcf…
05-24 02:07:04	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $72 in May?	No	BUY	109	87¢	$95	0xdbf987…
05-24 02:07:04	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $72 in May?	No	BUY	68	87¢	$59	0x3ebaa5…
05-24 02:06:37	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $72 in May?	No	BUY	38	87¢	$33	0x5f809e…
05-24 02:03:35	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $72 in May?	No	BUY	32	87¢	$28	0x3dbc95…
05-24 02:03:27	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $72 in May?	No	BUY	32	87¢	$28	0x280a54…
05-24 02:02:29	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $72 in May?	No	BUY	7	85¢	$6	0x834410…
05-24 02:01:33	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $72 in May?	No	BUY	42	81¢	$34	0x96f509…
05-24 02:01:33	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $72 in May?	No	BUY	8	81¢	$7	0x3d6beb…
05-24 00:34:06	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $72 in May?	No	BUY	50	61¢	$30	0xb416ef…
05-23 20:18:12	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $72 in May?	Yes	BUY	321	51¢	$164	0xf6413f…
05-07 02:29:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET	Up	SELL	53	20¢	$11	0x122de4…
05-07 02:23:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET	Up	BUY	53	47¢	$25	0x919b54…
05-07 02:22:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET	Up	SELL	36	44¢	$16	0xd79abf…
05-07 02:21:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET	Up	BUY	36	69¢	$25	0xf194cf…
05-06 13:36:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	Up	BUY	52	48¢	$25	0x45ed15…
05-06 13:36:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	Up	BUY	57	44¢	$25	0xdf10f2…
05-06 07:13:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	Up	BUY	60	42¢	$25	0x1333df…
05-06 07:08:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET	Up	BUY	27	94¢	$25	0x536ac4…
05-06 06:37:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET	Up	BUY	26	95¢	$25	0xec9433…
05-06 06:35:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET	Up	BUY	38	65¢	$25	0x5c4cab…
05-06 06:27:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET	Up	BUY	51	49¢	$25	0x7e7860…
05-06 06:26:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET	Up	BUY	62	40¢	$25	0x498ced…
05-06 06:23:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET	Up	BUY	71	35¢	$25	0xcb8df5…
05-06 06:23:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET	Up	BUY	71	35¢	$25	0x1d05b6…
05-06 05:41:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET	Up	BUY	32	77¢	$25	0x9871ed…
05-05 13:19:38	XRP Up or Down - May 5, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	Up	SELL	47	2¢	$1	0x91d91d…
05-05 13:14:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	Up	BUY	31	81¢	$25	0x3e16c3…
05-05 13:07:14	XRP Up or Down - May 5, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	Up	BUY	47	53¢	$25	0x50d4b1…
05-05 13:06:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	Up	BUY	40	63¢	$25	0x8f460c…
04-30 14:07:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Up	BUY	32	77¢	$25	0x548465…
04-30 13:57:02	Solana Up or Down - April 30, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	Up	BUY	30	84¢	$25	0x55e791…
04-30 13:56:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	Up	BUY	27	91¢	$25	0x49f4f3…
04-30 13:41:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Up	BUY	27	91¢	$25	0x339b51…
04-30 13:37:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	Up	BUY	34	73¢	$25	0x1fd03f…
04-30 13:34:00	Solana Up or Down - April 30, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Up	BUY	39	64¢	$25	0x5cb92a…
04-30 13:33:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Up	BUY	26	98¢	$25	0x64d832…
04-30 13:33:10	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	No	SELL	342	20¢	$68	0x1c1eca…
04-30 13:33:06	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	Yes	SELL	149	78¢	$116	0xed1bb2…
04-29 16:36:08	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	No	BUY	114	28¢	$32	0x54beed…
04-29 16:35:42	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	No	BUY	1	28¢	$0	0x7b4b76…
04-29 16:25:02	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	No	BUY	8	26¢	$2	0x2b78ba…
04-29 16:19:34	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	No	BUY	5	26¢	$1	0x2eb9d2…
04-29 16:18:56	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	No	BUY	90	26¢	$23	0xe72d77…
04-29 16:06:20	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	Yes	BUY	30	74¢	$22	0xed9424…
04-29 16:02:40	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	Yes	BUY	19	74¢	$14	0xbd05e8…
04-29 16:02:04	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	Yes	BUY	50	75¢	$38	0xeceb18…
04-29 15:59:34	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	No	BUY	123	27¢	$33	0xc7a24d…
04-29 15:57:20	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	Yes	BUY	50	71¢	$36	0x5c93b4…
04-29 08:44:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	Up	BUY	11	94¢	$10	0x63c5c7…
04-29 08:44:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	Up	BUY	11	89¢	$10	0x579144…
04-29 08:39:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	Up	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0x4e3abd…
04-29 08:38:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	Up	SELL	15	94¢	$14	0xa03096…
04-29 08:36:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	Up	BUY	15	67¢	$10	0x114946…
04-29 08:32:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	Up	SELL	34	3¢	$1	0x8f838f…
04-29 08:32:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	Down	BUY	22	93¢	$20	0x71d431…
04-29 08:30:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	Up	BUY	34	29¢	$10	0xe01503…
04-29 08:30:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	Up	BUY	21	48¢	$10	0x40efe1…
04-29 08:24:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	Up	BUY	167	6¢	$10	0x4e33d7…
04-29 08:23:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	Up	BUY	59	17¢	$10	0x863365…
02-28 14:17:31	will us or israel strike iran on march 2 2026	Yes	BUY	108	93¢	$100	0x04140d…
02-25 18:30:28	btc updown 5m 1772043900	Up	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0xe2860c…
02-25 18:28:42	btc updown 5m 1772043900	Up	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x5bd698…
02-25 18:20:42	btc updown 5m 1772043600	Up	BUY	8	63¢	$5	0x739472…