Excited-Pancreas — Polymarket

Realized P&L (7d)

—

Unrealized P&L

-$42

Hit rate

—

Resolved (7d)

Trades (7d)

373 lifetime

Volume (7d)

$38.8K lifetime

Avg / trade

$104

Open exposure

$461

4 positions

First seen

2026-01-05

last 10-05 12:45

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 40 days

Categories

Other

35% 65% +$2

Tech

32% 75% +$718

Crypto

31% 60% +$738

Sports

1% 0% -$516

Politics

1% 0% -$217

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

3 active days in 12wk • peak 3 trades/day

Open positions (4) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	+215	$200	98¢	$212	+$12	06-01 12:07
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?	No	+160	$129	82¢	$132	+$3	06-16 12:04
Will Ethereum reach $4,500 by December 31, 2026?	No	+107	$97	98¢	$104	+$7	06-14 01:20
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+130	$77	10¢	$13	-$64	07-05 15:28

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
ethereum all time high by march 31 2026	3	$4.0K	4,297	0	+4,297	No	+$343	01-29 12:44
will alexander zverev win the 2026 australian open	17	$3.1K	5,000	0	+5,000	No	-$135	01-30 08:09
will ethereum reach 3000 in february 2026	5	$2.8K	3,000	0	+3,000	No	+$210	02-08 08:39
Will Claude go down 12+ times in May?	36	$1.9K	2,978	972	+2,006	No	-$408	05-30 22:58
will claude 5 be released by february 14 2026 449	3	$1.7K	2,000	0	+2,000	No	+$322	02-06 03:28
will novak djokovic win the 2026 australian open	2	$1.5K	1,613	0	+1,613	No	+$111	01-30 09:00
Will Anthropic have the best Coding AI model at the end of May 2026?	2	$1.4K	1,464	0	+1,464	Yes	+$36	05-25 13:54
will claude go down 1 2 times in march	2	$1.2K	1,178	0	+1,178	No	+$28	03-03 10:48
will lorenzo musetti win the 2026 australian open	2	$1.1K	1,151	0	+1,151	No	+$15	01-26 06:57
Will Ethereum hit $2k or $3k first?	4	$1.1K	1,254	0	+1,254	$2k	+$136	02-05 12:29
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April?	2	$1.0K	1,074	0	+1,074	No	+$37	04-19 11:49
will ethereum dip to 2000 in february 2026	11	$1.0K	1,175	0	+1,175	Yes	+$148	02-05 14:37
will claude go down 11 times in march	11	$1.0K	1,119	0	+1,119	Yes	-$1,003	03-24 00:00
Will Claude go down 12+ times in April?	13	$763	1,545	0	+1,545	Yes	+$782	04-21 06:44
Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by June 30, 2026?	8	$734	910	0	+910	No	+$176	06-09 01:37
will openai have the best ai model for coding on march 31	5	$657	822	0	+822	Yes	+$165	03-03 06:42
Will any AI model reach 1510 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?	4	$649	1,430	0	+1,430	Yes	+$281	07-07 08:14
Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?	5	$610	1,192	0	+1,192	Yes	-$194	09-02 23:24
will the reserve bank of australia increase the target for the cash rate after the march meeting	12	$593	756	0	+756	Yes	+$163	03-16 12:06
Will Claude go down 9-11 times in May?	13	$570	860	0	+860	Yes	+$290	05-30 15:52
will the government shutdown last 14 days or more 343 693 775 861 153	2	$568	685	0	+685	No	+$116	01-29 04:42
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?	3	$567	680	0	+680	No	+$113	04-21 06:51
will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	1	$516	600	0	+600	Yes	-$516	07-07 08:09
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May?	2	$505	620	0	+620	No	+$115	05-14 16:41
will elina svitolina win the 2026 womens australian open	1	$500	534	0	+534	No	+$34	01-27 22:19
gpt 5pt3 released by march 31 2026 735 745 742	9	$475	500	0	+500	Yes	+$24	03-03 11:42
will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	7	$465	720	0	+720	Yes	+$255	02-19 04:04
will gold gc hit high 5400 by end of january 298	2	$420	505	0	+505	No	-$405	01-30 06:05
Will the next Google Gemini model debut at a score of at least 1480?	1	$405	1,400	0	+1,400	No	-$405	05-11 10:13
Will any AI model reach 1530 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?	9	$403	931	21	+910	Yes	-$322	09-30 20:06

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-05 12:45:10	Will UNI reach $15.50 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	178	79¢	$141	0x8c456f…
09-30 20:06:17	Will any AI model reach 1530 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	21	50¢	$11	0xdbe6bd…
09-30 20:06:17	Will any AI model reach 1530 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	376	41¢	$154	0x64b329…
09-30 20:06:15	Will any AI model reach 1530 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	424	41¢	$174	0x47a3b0…
09-02 23:24:48	Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	300	40¢	$120	0x65bd86…
07-08 00:53:38	Will Claude go down 3-5 times in July?	Yes	BUY	7	43¢	$3	0x57a4a6…
07-08 00:53:17	Will Claude go down 3-5 times in July?	Yes	BUY	50	43¢	$22	0xb5a187…
07-08 00:53:16	Will Claude go down 3-5 times in July?	Yes	BUY	41	43¢	$18	0xeafd93…
07-08 00:53:16	Will Claude go down 3-5 times in July?	Yes	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0xb64dbd…
07-07 08:14:55	Will any AI model reach 1510 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	60	36¢	$22	0x6d5fb6…
07-07 08:09:44	will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610	No	BUY	600	86¢	$516	0x108cc1…
07-05 15:48:16	Will Claude go down 6-8 times in July?	Yes	BUY	100	41¢	$41	0xa177f1…
07-05 15:48:01	Will Claude go down 3-5 times in July?	Yes	BUY	18	24¢	$4	0x0d6b50…
07-05 15:39:43	Will any AI model reach 1510 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	70	34¢	$24	0xa7b392…
07-05 15:30:55	will ethereum reach 2100 in july 2026	Yes	BUY	65	18¢	$12	0x59a4a4…
07-05 15:28:37	Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	69¢	$20	0x48f419…
06-27 09:52:08	Will Claude go down 12+ times in June?	No	BUY	19	99¢	$19	0x8c0a98…
06-22 01:34:23	Will Claude go down 6-8 times in June?	No	BUY	66	30¢	$20	0x1f3a2a…
06-22 00:04:26	Will Claude go down 6-8 times in June?	No	BUY	5	30¢	$2	0x565c77…
06-22 00:04:16	Will Claude go down 6-8 times in June?	No	BUY	5	30¢	$2	0xf43ad9…
06-22 00:04:05	Will Claude go down 6-8 times in June?	No	BUY	5	30¢	$2	0x4f51ae…
06-21 22:08:55	Will Claude go down 6-8 times in June?	No	BUY	11	30¢	$3	0x303982…
06-21 18:53:02	Will Claude go down 6-8 times in June?	No	BUY	7	30¢	$2	0x49e908…
06-20 01:58:29	Will any AI model reach 1510 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	800	53¢	$424	0xb2624e…
06-18 17:45:19	Will Claude go down 9-11 times in June?	Yes	SELL	56	48¢	$27	0x259e54…
06-18 07:41:56	Will Claude go down 6-8 times in June?	Yes	BUY	10	11¢	$1	0xd3ef79…
06-16 12:04:09	will anthropics valuation hit high 3pt0t by december 31	No	BUY	40	77¢	$31	0xec1592…
06-14 01:20:33	Will Ethereum reach $4,500 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	6	90¢	$5	0x8eb972…
06-13 19:04:45	Will claude-fable-5 be the best AI model on June 20, 2026?	No	BUY	24	85¢	$21	0xa8b48f…
06-13 18:11:01	Will claude-fable-5 be the best AI model on June 20, 2026?	No	BUY	200	85¢	$170	0xb201d1…
06-13 17:56:49	Will claude-fable-5 be the best AI model on June 20, 2026?	No	BUY	39	85¢	$33	0x0764f9…
06-13 17:55:13	Will claude-fable-5 be the best AI model on June 20, 2026?	No	BUY	27	85¢	$23	0x11c73e…
06-13 17:53:54	Will claude-fable-5 be the best AI model on June 20, 2026?	No	BUY	7	85¢	$6	0x8b5d4e…
06-13 17:27:42	Will claude-fable-5 be the best AI model on June 20, 2026?	No	BUY	3	85¢	$3	0x596580…
06-12 22:53:49	Will any AI model reach 1510 Overall Arena Score by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	8	89¢	$7	0x45c011…
06-12 16:00:15	Will any AI model reach 1510 Overall Arena Score by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	30	89¢	$27	0x0dac2e…
06-11 22:25:00	Will Ethereum reach $4,500 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	4	90¢	$4	0x58710b…
06-09 10:55:04	will a claude mythos model be released by june 15 2026	Yes	BUY	105	90¢	$94	0x6ece9d…
06-09 10:26:27	will a claude mythos model be released by june 10 2026 989	No	BUY	20	17¢	$3	0x096c0e…
06-09 10:23:18	will a claude mythos model be released by june 9 2026	No	BUY	93	31¢	$29	0x441001…
06-09 10:23:06	will a claude mythos model be released by june 9 2026	No	BUY	100	31¢	$31	0x6ed114…
06-09 01:37:00	Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	36	61¢	$22	0x1dae77…
06-08 11:43:43	Will any AI model reach 1530 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	17¢	$2	0x0456c1…
06-06 14:40:07	Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	116	39¢	$45	0x7def0e…
06-06 14:37:37	Will Ethereum reach $4,500 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	97	91¢	$88	0x2964fb…
06-06 14:36:06	Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	100	18¢	$18	0x25027a…
06-01 12:09:28	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?	No	BUY	20	79¢	$16	0xcd0c77…
06-01 12:08:23	Will UNI reach $15.50 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	93	94¢	$87	0x9ed4a8…
06-01 12:07:03	Will Ethereum reach $5,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	215	93¢	$200	0x1c650b…
06-01 12:05:07	Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	378	90¢	$339	0x87e3f2…
06-01 11:43:38	Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	371	51¢	$188	0xb81fe2…
06-01 11:40:15	Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	77	69¢	$53	0x56e32c…
06-01 11:30:27	Will any AI model reach 1530 Overall Arena Score by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	38	96¢	$36	0x2e17f9…
06-01 11:23:55	Will Claude go down 3-5 times in June?	No	BUY	20	91¢	$18	0xa583ce…
06-01 11:19:29	Will Claude go down 6-8 times in June?	Yes	BUY	64	22¢	$14	0x2da1d9…
06-01 11:19:01	Will Claude go down 9-11 times in June?	Yes	BUY	56	38¢	$21	0x72fef6…
06-01 11:14:50	Will Claude go down 3-5 times in June?	No	BUY	100	92¢	$92	0x0accac…
05-31 06:04:33	Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	57¢	$57	0x2c4c52…
05-30 22:58:22	Will Claude go down 12+ times in May?	Yes	SELL	16	32¢	$5	0x0e490a…
05-30 22:58:17	Will Claude go down 12+ times in May?	Yes	SELL	5	32¢	$2	0xc4e1a1…
05-30 22:58:15	Will Claude go down 12+ times in May?	Yes	SELL	40	32¢	$13	0x558816…
05-30 17:30:00	Will Claude go down 12+ times in May?	Yes	SELL	93	32¢	$30	0xd19b1c…
05-30 15:52:20	Will Claude go down 9-11 times in May?	Yes	BUY	11	57¢	$6	0xd29cde…
05-30 15:51:36	Will Claude go down 9-11 times in May?	Yes	BUY	105	57¢	$60	0x2832dd…
05-30 15:48:27	Will Claude go down 9-11 times in May?	Yes	BUY	81	73¢	$59	0x823226…
05-30 15:48:13	Will Claude go down 9-11 times in May?	Yes	BUY	57	70¢	$40	0xdfc823…
05-30 15:46:56	Will Claude go down 12+ times in May?	Yes	SELL	140	21¢	$30	0x0bb85d…
05-30 15:07:12	Will Claude go down 9-11 times in May?	Yes	BUY	20	57¢	$11	0x5b4d6f…
05-30 08:40:26	Will Claude go down 9-11 times in May?	Yes	BUY	213	57¢	$122	0xee92dc…
05-30 04:43:39	Will Claude go down 9-11 times in May?	Yes	BUY	20	57¢	$11	0xe775a1…
05-30 04:43:39	Will Claude go down 9-11 times in May?	Yes	BUY	30	57¢	$17	0x5bc9b1…
05-29 23:54:21	Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	97	61¢	$59	0xefa95a…
05-29 18:37:41	Will Claude go down 9-11 times in May?	Yes	BUY	272	75¢	$204	0x4553fe…
05-29 18:37:36	Will Claude go down 9-11 times in May?	Yes	BUY	0	75¢	$0	0x72f289…
05-29 18:36:29	Will Claude go down 9-11 times in May?	Yes	BUY	8	75¢	$6	0xd45416…
05-29 18:36:26	Will Claude go down 9-11 times in May?	Yes	BUY	20	75¢	$15	0xfae1b1…
05-29 16:47:24	Will Claude go down 12+ times in May?	No	BUY	11	75¢	$8	0x2e5f44…
05-27 04:13:11	Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31?	Yes	BUY	47	25¢	$12	0x95f939…
05-26 05:35:42	Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	300	33¢	$99	0x5a0363…
05-26 05:31:24	Will Claude go down 9-11 times in May?	Yes	BUY	22	83¢	$18	0xc36585…
05-25 14:18:22	Will Claude go down 12+ times in May?	No	BUY	10	75¢	$7	0xf5bd80…
05-25 13:54:27	Will Anthropic have the best Coding AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,404	98¢	$1,375	0x4b4d7f…
05-25 13:37:25	Will Claude go down 12+ times in May?	No	BUY	5	75¢	$4	0xeaecc0…
05-25 13:37:17	Will Claude go down 12+ times in May?	No	BUY	5	75¢	$4	0xe103dd…
05-25 13:37:17	Will Claude go down 12+ times in May?	No	BUY	160	73¢	$117	0xbd72ba…
05-25 00:44:29	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?	No	BUY	100	82¢	$82	0xc5edf0…
05-23 18:38:48	Will Claude go down 12+ times in May?	Yes	SELL	14	46¢	$6	0x14ce7e…
05-23 04:50:58	Will Claude go down 12+ times in May?	Yes	SELL	34	46¢	$16	0x5bf14f…
05-22 10:46:57	Will Claude go down 12+ times in May?	Yes	SELL	10	46¢	$5	0x84736b…
05-22 09:22:29	Will Claude go down 12+ times in May?	Yes	SELL	189	46¢	$87	0x12b179…
05-21 13:07:01	Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31?	Yes	BUY	62	25¢	$16	0xcea74a…
05-21 13:07:00	Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31?	Yes	BUY	691	25¢	$173	0x45f1ad…
05-21 10:29:26	Will Claude go down 12+ times in May?	Yes	SELL	5	44¢	$2	0xcb23d7…
05-20 13:41:59	Will Claude go down 12+ times in May?	Yes	SELL	427	44¢	$188	0xd2298c…
05-17 03:58:13	Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?	No	BUY	65	31¢	$20	0xfa5b41…
05-17 03:54:34	Gemini 3.5 released by July 31?	Yes	BUY	10	88¢	$9	0x32c275…
05-17 03:54:24	Gemini 3.5 released by July 31?	Yes	BUY	44	89¢	$39	0x82500a…
05-14 16:41:38	Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May?	No	BUY	500	81¢	$405	0xdbf20b…
05-14 06:52:52	Will any AI model reach 1510 Overall Arena Score by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0x65cc55…
05-13 16:52:23	Will Claude go down 12+ times in May?	No	BUY	124	75¢	$93	0xfaa609…