Vigilant-Smith — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$11.1K

Unrealized P&L

-$253

Hit rate

49.6%

Resolved

838

Trades

4,414

lifetime

Volume

$278.3K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$63

Open exposure

$194

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-11

last 10-05 16:15

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 81 days

Categories

Crypto

57% 35% +$4,601

Other

27% 19% -$3,548

Sports

11% 10% -$10,743

Politics

5% 27% -$1,370

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

2 active days in 12wk • peak 3 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
New pandemic in 2026?	Yes		+8,634	$545	2¢	$194	-$351	10-05 16:15
GTA 6 launch postponed again?	Yes		+0	-$97	1¢	$0	+$97	05-27 10:23

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will bitcoin dip to 60000 in february 694	49	$18.1K	53,953	53,953	+0	No	-$354	02-28 06:54
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	39	$15.7K	147,026	69,825	+77,200	No	-$5,791	07-04 17:31
bitcoin above 64k on march 1	81	$8.7K	19,599	10,791	+8,809	Yes	+$4,274	02-28 20:06
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	6	$7.0K	20,990	20,990	+0	Yes	-$393	02-28 00:52
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	25	$5.4K	206,001	108,823	+97,178	No	-$2,084	07-04 18:45
bitcoin above 64k on february 28	4	$5.4K	11,380	11,380	+0	Yes	+$1,442	02-28 06:28
will crude oil cl hit low 65 by end of march 687 631 179 583 222 896 946 953 469 231 749	8	$4.9K	16,845	10,783	+6,062	No	+$2,880	03-22 22:19
will morocco reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149718	12	$4.4K	13,357	6,174	+7,183	No	-$1,671	07-09 20:04
will xrp dip to 1pt2 in february 2026	4	$3.2K	3,250	3,250	+0	Yes	+$2,166	02-05 17:04
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-12 10:00 UTC	2	$2.8K	1,838	1,810	+28	Down	+$773	02-12 10:16
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?	2	$2.7K	6,813	6,813	+0	Yes	+$69	02-27 18:14
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw?	3	$2.7K	2,114	2,114	+0	Yes	+$1,569	06-18 18:00
will bitcoin dip to 66k march 23 29	5	$2.5K	2,458	2,444	+14	Yes	+$1,567	03-27 11:28
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-05 11:00 UTC	5	$2.4K	2,715	2,145	+570	Down	+$1,682	02-05 11:13
bitcoin above 68k on march 9	2	$2.4K	4,149	4,149	+0	Yes	+$1,205	03-06 19:11
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-03 19:00 UTC	2	$2.0K	1,302	1,282	+19	Up	+$521	02-03 19:10
bitcoin above 80k on february 2	4	$1.9K	4,369	4,369	+0	No	+$911	01-31 15:36
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	29	$1.8K	3,207	1,856	+1,352	No	+$493	05-28 10:53
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-03 22:15 UTC	3	$1.7K	1,356	1,342	+14	Up	+$879	02-03 22:28
will bitcoin dip to 60k in march 2026	21	$1.7K	14,158	3,125	+11,033	No	-$970	03-29 23:08
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	6	$1.7K	1,660	1,124	+537	No	+$304	06-21 23:56
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	3	$1.7K	1,022	1,022	+0	Yes	+$316	06-21 04:42
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-03 19:15 UTC	2	$1.6K	1,333	1,315	+19	Up	+$615	02-03 19:24
Will Australia vs. Egypt end in a draw?	2	$1.5K	1,601	1,601	+0	Yes	+$448	07-03 19:38
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?	5	$1.5K	3,031	1,448	+1,583	No	+$269	01-31 16:32
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	2	$1.5K	1,111	1,111	+0	No	+$700	06-16 00:09
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-08 00:30 UTC	3	$1.4K	1,274	1,257	+17	Down	+$407	02-08 00:38
Will Switzerland win on 2026-07-02?	2	$1.4K	993	993	+0	Yes	+$442	07-03 04:12
bitcoin up or down january 31 3pm et	7	$1.3K	1,161	1,161	+0	Up	+$733	01-31 20:59
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Japan?	10	$1.3K	1,182	1,182	+0	Yes	+$1,110	06-14 22:23

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-05 16:15:43	New pandemic in 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,350	8¢	$108	0xbdec53…
10-05 16:12:13	New pandemic in 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	6¢	$0	0xb3b8c1…
10-05 16:12:11	New pandemic in 2026?	Yes	BUY	7,278	6¢	$437	0x36810e…
08-29 11:34:27	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on August 29?	Yes	BUY	539	13¢	$70	0x731465…
07-30 14:08:03	another gta vi trailer released by july 31 20260629155922032	Yes	BUY	857	10¢	$86	0xd443c3…
07-29 19:39:38	another gta vi trailer released by july 31 20260629155922032	Yes	BUY	25	7¢	$2	0x439784…
07-29 19:38:20	another gta vi trailer released by july 31 20260629155922032	Yes	BUY	25	7¢	$2	0x3695d6…
07-29 19:38:02	another gta vi trailer released by july 31 20260629155922032	Yes	BUY	25	7¢	$2	0x21c80d…
07-29 19:37:32	another gta vi trailer released by july 31 20260629155922032	Yes	BUY	5	7¢	$0	0xe44907…
07-29 11:58:14	another gta vi trailer released by july 31 20260629155922032	Yes	BUY	71	7¢	$5	0x3a7b73…
07-25 09:25:12	another gta vi trailer released by july 31 20260629155922032	Yes	BUY	197	10¢	$20	0x18f917…
07-25 05:54:01	another gta vi trailer released by july 31 20260629155922032	Yes	BUY	1,005	10¢	$100	0xe4b635…
07-15 12:38:17	Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	2,698	23¢	$612	0x32efd2…
07-09 20:04:46	will morocco reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149718	Yes	BUY	486	22¢	$108	0x29b1a6…
07-09 12:53:16	will morocco reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149718	Yes	BUY	3,731	22¢	$832	0xd7c421…
07-06 20:17:22	fifwc prt esp 2026 07 06 total 2pt5	Over	BUY	1,169	19¢	$222	0x5be448…
07-06 20:17:02	will morocco reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149718	Yes	SELL	1,097	21¢	$233	0x9857f2…
07-06 19:05:44	fifwc prt esp 2026 07 06 total 4pt5	Over	BUY	1,566	14¢	$219	0x23650b…
07-06 19:05:28	will morocco reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149718	Yes	SELL	1,080	21¢	$231	0x9d400b…
07-06 19:02:47	Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 3 Spain?	Yes	BUY	2,336	3¢	$67	0x5b1482…
07-06 19:02:23	Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 3 Spain?	Yes	BUY	1,338	3¢	$38	0x76b296…
07-06 19:02:01	will morocco reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149718	Yes	SELL	509	22¢	$110	0x16ba05…
07-06 19:01:32	Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 3 Spain?	Yes	BUY	3,010	3¢	$89	0x090918…
07-06 19:01:11	will morocco reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149718	Yes	SELL	425	22¢	$92	0x803580…
07-06 10:32:34	fifwc prt esp 2026 07 06 goals cristiano ronaldo gte2	Yes	BUY	2,502	10¢	$250	0x298c12…
07-06 10:32:13	fifwc prt esp 2026 07 06 goals cristiano ronaldo gte1	Yes	BUY	441	34¢	$150	0x75714f…
07-06 10:31:25	will morocco reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149718	Yes	SELL	1,919	22¢	$421	0xdb0c4f…
07-06 10:26:14	Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 3 Spain?	Yes	BUY	533	2¢	$8	0x1befa9…
07-05 22:15:17	will morocco reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149718	Yes	BUY	3,114	22¢	$688	0x9fa4e4…
07-05 22:06:28	fifwc bra nor 2026 07 05 btts	Yes	SELL	333	100¢	$333	0x342546…
07-05 21:53:01	fifwc bra nor 2026 07 05 btts	Yes	BUY	333	15¢	$50	0xef3ba0…
07-05 21:51:14	Will Brazil vs. Norway end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	273	22¢	$60	0xb6dcaa…
07-05 21:47:55	Will Brazil win on 2026-07-05?	Yes	BUY	400	5¢	$20	0x9cac03…
07-05 21:39:53	Will Brazil vs. Norway end in a draw?	Yes	SELL	13	55¢	$7	0x724342…
07-05 21:39:52	Will Brazil vs. Norway end in a draw?	Yes	SELL	18	55¢	$10	0x7da91b…
07-05 21:39:52	Will Brazil vs. Norway end in a draw?	Yes	SELL	289	55¢	$159	0x2448bc…
07-05 21:39:50	Will Brazil vs. Norway end in a draw?	Yes	SELL	2	55¢	$1	0xcc2f32…
07-05 21:39:50	Will Brazil vs. Norway end in a draw?	Yes	SELL	11	55¢	$6	0x43aaf2…
07-05 21:39:49	Will Brazil vs. Norway end in a draw?	Yes	SELL	115	55¢	$63	0x09cae7…
07-05 21:39:47	Will Brazil vs. Norway end in a draw?	Yes	SELL	2	55¢	$1	0xfb88d4…
07-05 21:39:47	Will Brazil vs. Norway end in a draw?	Yes	SELL	36	55¢	$20	0x732862…
07-05 21:39:47	Will Brazil vs. Norway end in a draw?	Yes	SELL	2	55¢	$1	0x32e11b…
07-05 21:39:46	Will Brazil vs. Norway end in a draw?	Yes	SELL	18	55¢	$10	0xed5f65…
07-05 21:39:44	Will Brazil vs. Norway end in a draw?	Yes	SELL	2	55¢	$1	0xce231e…
07-05 21:39:43	Will Brazil vs. Norway end in a draw?	Yes	SELL	36	55¢	$20	0xf9f4f1…
07-05 21:39:43	Will Brazil vs. Norway end in a draw?	Yes	SELL	379	55¢	$208	0x9506c0…
07-05 18:12:52	Will Brazil vs. Norway end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	922	27¢	$249	0x0d4dd5…
07-05 18:12:20	will morocco reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149718	Yes	SELL	1,145	22¢	$252	0xd524ab…
07-04 18:50:59	will morocco reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149718	Yes	BUY	1,213	24¢	$294	0xf21f23…
07-04 18:50:40	world cup goals h2h messi vspt ronaldo 20260604005506837	Ronaldo	BUY	2,251	3¢	$70	0x38efea…
07-04 18:47:44	Exact Score: Canada 0 - 2 Morocco?	Yes	SELL	583	64¢	$376	0xb9f816…
07-04 18:45:52	Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	14,579	2¢	$350	0x1ad757…
07-04 18:45:14	will morocco reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149718	Yes	BUY	1,310	23¢	$300	0xb0634b…
07-04 18:44:14	Will Morocco win on 2026-07-04?	Yes	SELL	887	76¢	$674	0xd2bd42…
07-04 17:34:17	Will Morocco win on 2026-07-04?	Yes	BUY	390	38¢	$148	0x1ed976…
07-04 17:34:01	Exact Score: Canada 0 - 2 Morocco?	Yes	BUY	333	9¢	$30	0xa10cfd…
07-04 17:33:41	Exact Score: Canada 1 - 2 Morocco?	Yes	BUY	333	9¢	$30	0x246565…
07-04 17:32:59	Exact Score: Canada 1 - 3 Morocco?	Yes	BUY	594	3¢	$20	0x488013…
07-04 17:31:59	Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	4,063	6¢	$240	0x16b1ce…
07-04 17:25:47	Will Morocco win on 2026-07-04?	Yes	BUY	497	39¢	$194	0xff88f3…
07-04 17:25:31	Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	3,386	6¢	$203	0xe44e7b…
07-04 15:22:53	fifwc can mar 2026 07 04 goals ismael saibari gte1	Yes	BUY	364	33¢	$120	0x4c68b3…
07-04 15:22:22	fifwc can mar 2026 07 04 assists ismael saibari gte1	Yes	BUY	411	19¢	$78	0xa276a1…
07-04 15:21:19	Exact Score: Canada 2 - 3 Morocco?	Yes	BUY	435	2¢	$10	0x8830fd…
07-04 15:21:01	Exact Score: Canada 1 - 3 Morocco?	Yes	BUY	333	6¢	$20	0x1845bb…
07-04 15:20:17	Exact Score: Canada 0 - 2 Morocco?	Yes	BUY	250	12¢	$30	0x05061c…
07-04 15:18:40	Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	4,455	6¢	$272	0x66e0d8…
07-04 15:17:43	Exact Score: Canada 1 - 3 Morocco?	Yes	BUY	183	6¢	$11	0x819e43…
07-04 03:33:08	will morocco reach the semifinals at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602145149718	Yes	BUY	3,503	22¢	$788	0x719197…
07-04 03:27:13	Will Colombia vs. Ghana end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	250	4¢	$10	0x8d7e32…
07-04 03:26:17	Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 0 Ghana?	Yes	BUY	149	13¢	$20	0x694876…
07-04 01:21:20	Exact Score: Colombia 3 - 1 Ghana?	Yes	BUY	286	7¢	$20	0x117982…
07-04 01:20:41	Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 0 Ghana?	Yes	BUY	294	17¢	$50	0xc39d8e…
07-04 01:20:13	Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 1 Ghana?	Yes	BUY	167	12¢	$20	0x412b33…
07-04 01:20:02	Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 1 Ghana?	Yes	BUY	333	12¢	$40	0x677a95…
07-04 00:33:01	fifwc arg cvi 2026 07 03 penalty shootout	No	SELL	218	93¢	$203	0x442e4c…
07-04 00:29:49	fifwc arg cvi 2026 07 03 penalty shootout	No	BUY	79	38¢	$30	0x6a757c…
07-04 00:23:50	fifwc arg cvi 2026 07 03 penalty shootout	No	BUY	139	36¢	$50	0xd0d844…
07-04 00:19:52	Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03?	Yes	BUY	10,000	0¢	$10	0x762d5d…
07-03 21:45:32	Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Cabo Verde?	Yes	BUY	211	19¢	$40	0x201877…
07-03 21:42:58	Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Cabo Verde?	Yes	BUY	390	8¢	$30	0xead39b…
07-03 19:39:53	Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	7,615	3¢	$198	0xc1e063…
07-03 19:39:19	Exact Score: Australia 1 - 1 Egypt?	Yes	SELL	375	58¢	$218	0xb4a837…
07-03 19:38:31	Will Australia vs. Egypt end in a draw?	Yes	SELL	1,601	62¢	$993	0xe1f20e…
07-03 04:32:13	Will Australia vs. Egypt end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	1,601	34¢	$544	0x7e2f7f…
07-03 04:22:10	Exact Score: Australia 1 - 1 Egypt?	Yes	BUY	375	16¢	$60	0xf4f2df…
07-03 04:18:55	Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	12,500	2¢	$300	0x6a3cdf…
07-03 04:12:20	Will Switzerland win on 2026-07-02?	Yes	SELL	993	93¢	$926	0x61308d…
07-03 01:33:59	Will Switzerland win on 2026-07-02?	Yes	BUY	993	49¢	$484	0xb03e70…
07-03 01:32:44	Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Algeria?	Yes	BUY	385	13¢	$50	0xae3ed5…
07-03 01:32:16	Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	8,813	6¢	$558	0x38f25f…
07-03 01:00:31	Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	4,114	7¢	$293	0x1f558d…
07-03 00:59:34	Will Portugal win on 2026-07-02?	Yes	SELL	320	94¢	$299	0xb771cd…
07-03 00:33:29	Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	11,516	6¢	$722	0x1939c6…
07-03 00:32:58	Will Portugal win on 2026-07-02?	Yes	BUY	320	38¢	$120	0x08bdbb…
07-03 00:32:38	fifwc prt hrv 2026 07 02 goals cristiano ronaldo gte1	Yes	SELL	868	100¢	$867	0x5c3eac…
07-02 23:58:41	fifwc prt hrv 2026 07 02 goals cristiano ronaldo gte2	Yes	BUY	669	7¢	$47	0x8fe2de…
07-02 23:58:26	Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	831	6¢	$49	0x35ef07…
07-02 23:57:29	fifwc prt hrv 2026 07 02 goals cristiano ronaldo gte1	Yes	BUY	550	31¢	$170	0x32879e…
07-02 23:57:10	Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	7,723	2¢	$178	0xbfa9a6…