Salty-Citron — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$28

Unrealized P&L

+$84

Hit rate

5.6%

Resolved

Trades

128

lifetime

Volume

$6.24K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$49

Open exposure

$394

3 positions

First seen

2026-02-18

last 07-05 10:32

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

38% — —

Politics

33% 100% +$6

Sports

14% 0% $-33

Crypto

12% — —

Tech

3% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

30 active days in 12wk • peak 18 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	+300	$189	84¢	$254	+$64	06-30 03:48
Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	-269	$-146	48¢	$-128	+$18	06-18 07:19
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	No	+20	$10	62¢	$12	+$2	06-06 12:48

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	5	$805	1,011	828	+183	open	—	02-27 14:46
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	3	$737	600	641	-41	open	—	06-01 14:55
Nothing Ever Happens: May	13	$643	432	393	+39	open	—	05-28 16:34
Israeli parliament dissolved by May 31?	2	$542	400	200	+200	open	—	05-23 08:07
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	11	$311	1,000	920	+80	open	—	06-19 01:58
us strikes iran by february 27 2026	2	$307	1,683	1,683	+0	open	—	02-27 14:45
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	1	$300	366	0	+366	open	—	05-29 14:43
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Lakers vs. Rockets	6	$279	901	666	+234	open	—	04-30 19:08
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	4	$278	312	0	+312	open	—	05-29 14:51
Anthropic valued higher than OpenAI in 2026?	2	$191	171	44	+126	open	—	05-23 03:22
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	1	$189	300	0	+300	open	—	06-30 03:48
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets	5	$153	1,869	0	+1,869	open	—	04-28 04:20
Fed rate hike in 2026?	4	$146	0	269	-269	open	—	06-18 07:19
Will Cursor be acquired before 2027?	2	$130	150	0	+150	open	—	06-02 10:37
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	2	$119	120	31	+89	open	—	06-09 08:03
will mgm resorts be acquired before 2027	4	$111	147	0	+147	open	—	07-05 10:32
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?	10	$108	298	0	+298	open	—	06-03 17:30
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	1	$97	155	0	+155	open	—	02-18 13:59
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs	3	$74	89	0	+89	open	—	04-27 05:58
Pistons vs. Magic	2	$67	138	0	+138	open	—	04-28 01:02
us x iran permanent peace deal by august 31 2026	1	$50	78	0	+78	open	—	06-14 13:25
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	2	$50	331	0	+331	open	—	06-15 06:46
Thunder vs. Suns	2	$38	3,500	0	+3,500	open	—	04-28 04:14
will spacexs valuation hit high 2pt5t by june 30	2	$35	81	0	+81	open	—	06-05 14:19
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Knicks vs. Hawks	1	$35	121	0	+121	open	—	04-27 02:27
Rockets vs. Lakers	1	$35	60	0	+60	open	—	04-27 16:36
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals?	6	$33	625	0	+625	No	$-33	04-27 11:29
Lakers vs. Rockets	1	$33	121	0	+121	open	—	04-27 02:53
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by June 30?	2	$33	40	0	+40	open	—	06-03 08:11
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	1	$30	32	0	+32	open	—	05-19 07:39

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-05 10:32:38	will mgm resorts be acquired before 2027	Yes	BUY	13	77¢	$10	0x98041b…
07-04 19:14:35	will mgm resorts be acquired before 2027	Yes	BUY	80	77¢	$62	0x83484f…
07-03 08:17:13	will mgm resorts be acquired before 2027	Yes	BUY	13	77¢	$10	0xd172d9…
06-30 03:48:07	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	300	63¢	$189	0x5af565…
06-19 01:58:08	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	32	33¢	$10	0x1b8eaf…
06-18 07:19:31	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	163	55¢	$89	0x4861d5…
06-18 02:57:07	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	65	20¢	$13	0xf95107…
06-15 06:46:21	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	199	15¢	$30	0x7220e2…
06-15 06:11:13	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	BUY	132	15¢	$20	0x958257…
06-14 13:25:51	us x iran permanent peace deal by august 31 2026	Yes	BUY	78	64¢	$50	0x5d5374…
06-14 12:23:42	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	45	19¢	$9	0x796443…
06-13 01:30:54	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	175	15¢	$26	0x824bfb…
06-09 08:03:22	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	31	83¢	$26	0x9470b4…
06-09 07:53:57	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	504	13¢	$66	0x593c39…
06-08 02:14:07	Will Pizza Hut be acquired before 2027?	Yes	BUY	19	79¢	$15	0x8f159b…
06-08 02:12:52	will mgm resorts be acquired before 2027	Yes	BUY	41	73¢	$30	0x2ae779…
06-08 01:38:15	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	36	60¢	$22	0xac6b10…
06-06 12:48:37	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0x861f4c…
06-06 12:44:03	iran closes its airspace by june 15	No	BUY	11	89¢	$10	0x7f1058…
06-06 12:43:48	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by june 15 2026	No	BUY	11	89¢	$10	0x0f2ef4…
06-06 02:35:07	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	23	52¢	$12	0x598b00…
06-05 16:57:55	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	30	14¢	$4	0xb8cd28…
06-05 14:19:15	will spacexs valuation hit high 2pt5t by june 30	Yes	BUY	34	44¢	$15	0x6e7a08…
06-05 14:17:48	will anthropics valuation hit high 2pt0t by december 31 922	Yes	BUY	37	41¢	$15	0xea69a2…
06-05 14:17:37	will anthropics valuation hit high 2pt5t by december 31 169	Yes	BUY	50	30¢	$15	0xd9bb7e…
06-05 14:11:18	Fed rate hike in 2026?	Yes	SELL	48	49¢	$23	0x84d826…
06-03 17:37:15	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	120	78¢	$94	0x9f1edd…
06-03 17:30:28	Starmer out by July 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	31¢	$31	0x8b0960…
06-03 17:30:09	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	500	10¢	$50	0xe170d2…
06-03 14:37:30	Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30?	Yes	BUY	46	44¢	$20	0xdcd559…
06-03 08:11:14	Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by June 30?	Yes	BUY	25	82¢	$20	0x87c993…
06-02 10:37:02	Will Cursor be acquired before 2027?	Yes	BUY	100	86¢	$86	0xb50fb9…
06-02 09:16:16	Will Cursor be acquired before 2027?	Yes	BUY	50	87¢	$44	0xe199a9…
06-02 06:49:09	Starmer out by July 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	73	39¢	$29	0xff0c5e…
06-02 06:49:09	Starmer out by July 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	110	39¢	$43	0x9e710d…
06-02 05:55:20	Starmer out by July 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	39¢	$1	0x60782a…
06-02 05:43:07	Starmer out by July 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	39¢	$2	0x255ad9…
06-02 05:38:25	Starmer out by July 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	39¢	$1	0x73dfa3…
06-02 05:31:16	Starmer out by July 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	39¢	$1	0x9a5978…
06-02 05:15:10	Starmer out by July 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	39¢	$1	0xea7d63…
06-02 04:45:10	Starmer out by July 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	39¢	$1	0x9c905d…
06-02 04:05:09	Starmer out by July 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	39¢	$1	0x4762be…
06-01 15:13:13	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	495	15¢	$74	0x50a8a0…
06-01 14:55:24	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	15¢	$0	0xdb9d17…
06-01 14:55:19	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	600	55¢	$331	0xa06c9d…
06-01 14:54:47	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	15¢	$1	0xc59b94…
06-01 14:46:21	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	69	84¢	$58	0x952ab6…
06-01 14:17:27	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	600	66¢	$393	0xd6661f…
06-01 14:16:40	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	41	33¢	$13	0x57023b…
05-30 05:11:16	Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by June 30?	Yes	BUY	15	80¢	$12	0x75db9f…
05-29 14:51:44	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	No	BUY	50	89¢	$44	0x7c58ba…
05-29 14:43:44	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	No	BUY	366	82¢	$300	0x80a1c9…
05-29 14:42:47	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	No	BUY	30	89¢	$27	0xe758d6…
05-29 14:41:54	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	No	BUY	112	89¢	$100	0xba53c7…
05-29 14:35:27	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	No	BUY	120	89¢	$107	0x33208b…
05-28 16:34:44	Nothing Ever Happens: May	Nothing	SELL	118	92¢	$108	0xec939e…
05-28 16:32:24	Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 May 25-31?	Yes	BUY	30	58¢	$17	0xb6acde…
05-28 15:58:32	Nothing Ever Happens: May	Nothing	SELL	226	90¢	$202	0x549ad3…
05-25 07:13:48	Nothing Ever Happens: May	Nothing	SELL	50	80¢	$40	0x7763a8…
05-24 12:21:01	Nothing Ever Happens: May	Nothing	BUY	150	56¢	$84	0xd81879…
05-24 12:16:37	Nothing Ever Happens: May	Nothing	BUY	75	59¢	$44	0xbc6db8…
05-24 12:15:55	Nothing Ever Happens: May	Nothing	BUY	25	59¢	$15	0xc4994b…
05-24 08:51:57	Nothing Ever Happens: May	Nothing	BUY	7	63¢	$4	0x98a938…
05-24 06:31:57	Nothing Ever Happens: May	Nothing	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0x6f5ee8…
05-24 06:30:54	Nothing Ever Happens: May	Nothing	BUY	8	63¢	$5	0xbb7c89…
05-23 08:07:45	Israeli parliament dissolved by May 31?	No	SELL	200	95¢	$190	0xa98513…
05-23 03:22:35	Anthropic valued higher than OpenAI in 2026?	Yes	SELL	44	92¢	$41	0x29e691…
05-20 21:04:10	Nothing Ever Happens: May	Nothing	BUY	22	75¢	$16	0x08242c…
05-20 19:36:00	Nothing Ever Happens: May	Nothing	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0xd9c790…
05-20 18:18:34	Nothing Ever Happens: May	Nothing	BUY	27	75¢	$20	0xcbd2bd…
05-20 13:40:33	Nothing Ever Happens: May	Nothing	BUY	112	89¢	$100	0x701f09…
05-20 09:32:08	Israeli parliament dissolved by May 31?	No	BUY	400	88¢	$352	0x890be4…
05-20 08:14:03	Starmer out by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	11	95¢	$10	0xf09415…
05-20 07:04:14	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	59	17¢	$10	0xdb7ea9…
05-20 07:04:03	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	30	34¢	$10	0x12bb36…
05-19 07:39:11	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	32	95¢	$30	0x0f24dd…
05-08 08:34:22	Anthropic valued higher than OpenAI in 2026?	Yes	BUY	171	88¢	$150	0x126d40…
04-30 19:08:16	NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Lakers vs. Rockets	Rockets	SELL	666	25¢	$166	0xb80304…
04-28 04:20:50	Timberwolves vs. Nuggets	Timberwolves	BUY	1,094	2¢	$21	0x404566…
04-28 04:14:34	Thunder vs. Suns	Suns	BUY	2,917	0¢	$3	0xdf7b0f…
04-28 03:58:34	Timberwolves vs. Nuggets	Timberwolves	BUY	250	13¢	$32	0x7608cb…
04-28 03:08:36	Thunder vs. Suns	Suns	BUY	583	6¢	$35	0xb1f87d…
04-28 01:02:58	Pistons vs. Magic	Pistons	BUY	46	74¢	$34	0xfa9da6…
04-28 00:56:32	Timberwolves vs. Nuggets	Timberwolves	BUY	175	19¢	$33	0x41ea6d…
04-28 00:53:26	Pistons vs. Magic	Magic	BUY	92	36¢	$33	0xed36e4…
04-28 00:43:36	Timberwolves vs. Nuggets	Timberwolves	BUY	175	19¢	$33	0xc1b2d9…
04-28 00:30:42	Timberwolves vs. Nuggets	Timberwolves	BUY	175	19¢	$33	0xc5c9f0…
04-27 16:36:10	Rockets vs. Lakers	Lakers	BUY	60	58¢	$35	0xdc40c0…
04-27 11:29:08	Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals?	Yes	BUY	9	6¢	$0	0xaf3562…
04-27 11:28:56	Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals?	Yes	BUY	551	5¢	$29	0xf2396f…
04-27 11:28:56	Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals?	Yes	BUY	20	6¢	$1	0xf0ca21…
04-27 11:28:56	Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals?	Yes	BUY	20	6¢	$1	0xd5fd83…
04-27 11:28:56	Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals?	Yes	BUY	20	6¢	$1	0x651d2b…
04-27 11:28:56	Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals?	Yes	BUY	5	6¢	$0	0x2aed42…
04-27 09:32:26	Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the NBA Western Conference Finals?	Yes	BUY	1,296	2¢	$28	0x95c7e1…
04-27 08:49:22	NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Lakers vs. Rockets	Rockets	BUY	294	12¢	$35	0xaf295d…
04-27 05:58:02	Trail Blazers vs. Spurs	Spurs	BUY	42	84¢	$35	0x393b79…
04-27 05:26:38	NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Lakers vs. Rockets	Rockets	BUY	257	13¢	$34	0xedc544…
04-27 05:20:02	Trail Blazers vs. Spurs	Spurs	BUY	35	84¢	$29	0xb989b8…
04-27 05:01:02	NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Lakers vs. Rockets	Rockets	BUY	232	13¢	$30	0xd822bf…