Weak-Satin — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$87

Unrealized P&L

+$0

Hit rate

48.2%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$20.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$348

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-03-23

last 09-24 07:11

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 16 days

Categories

Other

62% 59% +$88

Politics

38% 33% -$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

2 active days in 12wk • peak 4 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (22) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Russia invade a NATO country by December 31, 2026?	No		+3	$3	98¢	$3	+$0	09-24 07:11

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Russia capture Lyman by May 31, 2026?	2	$988	510	510	+0	No	+$10	05-13 06:47
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	2	$954	500	500	+0	No	+$0	05-11 11:07
Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027?	2	$910	500	500	+0	open	—	06-12 05:28
Will Cuba recognize Israel by June 30	2	$889	450	450	+0	No	-$2	05-08 09:21
will iran target ukraine by september 30 2026 20260727234956918	2	$874	460	460	+0	No	+$0	08-11 02:06
will russia enter malokaterynivka by december 31 2026	2	$874	475	475	+0	Yes	+$0	08-10 07:39
total internet blackout in iran by august 31 2026 20260720155238428	3	$874	475	475	+0	No	+$0	08-10 06:25
will an international court find israel or its leaders guilty of genocide by december 31 2027 20260629142909679	2	$873	485	485	+0	open	—	08-11 06:07
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by December 31, 2026?	4	$869	455	455	+0	open	—	07-13 07:50
will the netherlands send warships through the strait of hormuz by july 31 2026 20260701001952742	2	$852	445	445	+0	No	+$1	07-13 06:29
will russia capture verkhnia tersa by september 30	2	$837	460	460	+0	No	+$0	08-17 08:51
will russia capture kupiansk vuzlovyi by september 30	2	$835	460	460	+0	No	+$2	08-17 07:39
israel x hezbollah diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 20260706181027671	2	$833	443	443	+0	No	+$0	07-09 08:35
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?	2	$828	450	450	+0	open	—	07-09 07:40
Will Russia capture Prymorske by December 31, 2026?	2	$773	420	420	+0	open	—	08-29 02:55
Will Russia capture Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by September 30, 2026?	2	$760	400	400	+0	No	+$0	08-29 02:17
will russia capture mala tokmachka by september 30 2026	2	$736	400	400	+0	No	+$0	06-24 03:27
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026?	2	$735	387	387	+0	No	+$0	06-25 06:42
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30?	2	$731	380	380	+0	No	+$0	06-24 06:52
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to less than 20 years in prison?	2	$729	392	392	+0	open	—	06-25 08:02
Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026?	2	$715	395	395	+0	open	—	06-26 02:39
Will there be no de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026?	2	$714	376	376	+0	open	—	06-26 05:54
Spread: Haras El Hodood SC (-2.5)	1	$499	505	0	+505	El Mokawloon El Arab SC	+$6	05-13 06:54
fifwc can bih 2026 06 12 second half team total away 1pt5	1	$483	525	0	+525	Under	+$42	06-12 07:07
Spread: Al Taawoun Saudi Club (-2.5)	1	$480	490	0	+490	Al Ahli Saudi Club	+$10	05-11 11:16
Spread: FK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciuc (-1.5)	1	$446	480	0	+480	FC UTA Arad	+$34	05-08 09:26
mex pue leo 2026 04 10 spread away 2pt5	1	$309	325	0	+325	Club Puebla	+$16	04-10 11:12
bra2 juv nov 2026 03 31 spread away 1pt5	1	$78	85	0	+85	EC Juventude	+$7	03-31 09:30
chi jin sha 2026 04 21 spread home 2pt5	2	$24	860	0	+860	Shandong Taishan FC	-$24	04-21 11:09
Spread: 1. FSV Mainz 05 (-2.5)	2	$19	840	0	+840	FC Bayern München	-$19	04-25 06:48

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
09-24 07:11:53	Will Russia invade a NATO country by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	3	95¢	$3	0x95128f…
08-29 02:55:16	Will Russia capture Prymorske by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	420	92¢	$386	0xf57a85…
08-29 02:22:07	Will Russia capture Prymorske by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	420	92¢	$386	0xcacb13…
08-29 02:17:30	Will Russia capture Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	400	95¢	$380	0xc069c6…
08-29 01:38:40	Will Russia capture Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	400	95¢	$380	0x1f2196…
08-17 08:51:42	will russia capture verkhnia tersa by september 30	No	SELL	460	91¢	$419	0x999669…
08-17 07:49:33	will russia capture verkhnia tersa by september 30	No	BUY	460	91¢	$419	0x4e945c…
08-17 07:39:31	will russia capture kupiansk vuzlovyi by september 30	No	SELL	460	91¢	$419	0x230a51…
08-17 06:19:42	will russia capture kupiansk vuzlovyi by september 30	No	BUY	460	90¢	$416	0xd42a88…
08-11 06:07:00	will an international court find israel or its leaders guilty of genocide by december 31 2027 20260629142909679	No	SELL	485	90¢	$436	0x38e5e0…
08-11 02:34:40	will an international court find israel or its leaders guilty of genocide by december 31 2027 20260629142909679	No	BUY	485	90¢	$436	0x3b40ec…
08-11 02:06:48	will iran target ukraine by september 30 2026 20260727234956918	No	SELL	460	95¢	$437	0x024aa0…
08-11 01:28:19	will iran target ukraine by september 30 2026 20260727234956918	No	BUY	460	95¢	$437	0x571932…
08-10 07:39:46	will russia enter malokaterynivka by december 31 2026	No	SELL	475	92¢	$437	0x4027d6…
08-10 07:00:18	will russia enter malokaterynivka by december 31 2026	No	BUY	475	92¢	$437	0x7272ff…
08-10 06:25:31	total internet blackout in iran by august 31 2026 20260720155238428	No	SELL	10	92¢	$9	0x04e349…
08-10 06:25:18	total internet blackout in iran by august 31 2026 20260720155238428	No	SELL	465	92¢	$428	0x0a3fcb…
08-10 05:24:06	total internet blackout in iran by august 31 2026 20260720155238428	No	BUY	475	92¢	$437	0xaaf3d0…
07-13 07:50:41	Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	5	96¢	$5	0x575a25…
07-13 07:50:17	Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x5371ab…
07-13 07:49:32	Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	450	96¢	$430	0xbe7306…
07-13 07:04:17	Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	450	96¢	$430	0x25a385…
07-13 06:29:20	will the netherlands send warships through the strait of hormuz by july 31 2026 20260701001952742	No	SELL	445	96¢	$426	0x71cfbd…
07-13 05:38:29	will the netherlands send warships through the strait of hormuz by july 31 2026 20260701001952742	No	BUY	445	96¢	$425	0x8c18b3…
07-09 08:35:40	israel x hezbollah diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 20260706181027671	No	SELL	443	94¢	$416	0x371603…
07-09 07:54:58	israel x hezbollah diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 20260706181027671	No	BUY	443	94¢	$416	0x1468e4…
07-09 07:40:25	Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?	No	SELL	450	92¢	$414	0x15ea77…
07-09 06:47:04	Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?	No	BUY	450	92¢	$414	0xca29ec…
06-26 05:54:41	Will there be no de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026?	No	SELL	376	95¢	$357	0xf766e1…
06-26 05:00:40	Will there be no de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026?	No	BUY	376	95¢	$357	0x980494…
06-26 02:39:01	Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026?	No	SELL	395	90¢	$356	0x7ef493…
06-26 01:39:35	Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026?	No	BUY	395	91¢	$359	0x57c26c…
06-25 08:02:05	Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to less than 20 years in prison?	No	SELL	392	92¢	$360	0xd1086f…
06-25 07:10:01	Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to less than 20 years in prison?	No	BUY	392	94¢	$368	0x2ec76b…
06-25 06:42:23	Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026?	No	SELL	387	95¢	$368	0xdf9591…
06-25 05:49:25	Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026?	No	BUY	387	95¢	$368	0xe529dd…
06-24 06:52:19	Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30?	No	SELL	380	96¢	$366	0x94d21f…
06-24 06:03:04	Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30?	No	BUY	380	96¢	$366	0xf5d0fe…
06-24 03:27:22	will russia capture mala tokmachka by september 30 2026	No	SELL	400	92¢	$368	0xab82b2…
06-24 02:11:34	will russia capture mala tokmachka by september 30 2026	No	BUY	400	92¢	$368	0x6f9f09…
06-12 07:07:57	fifwc can bih 2026 06 12 second half team total away 1pt5	Under	BUY	525	92¢	$483	0xabba65…
06-12 05:28:22	Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027?	No	SELL	500	91¢	$455	0xaffda4…
06-12 05:12:00	Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027?	No	BUY	500	91¢	$455	0xed5d2f…
05-13 06:54:03	Spread: Haras El Hodood SC (-2.5)	El Mokawloon El Arab SC	BUY	505	99¢	$499	0x0f3170…
05-13 06:47:14	Will Russia capture Lyman by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	510	98¢	$499	0x7441e5…
05-13 02:59:59	Will Russia capture Lyman by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	510	96¢	$489	0xc5416c…
05-11 11:16:14	Spread: Al Taawoun Saudi Club (-2.5)	Al Ahli Saudi Club	BUY	490	98¢	$480	0xfeb8ea…
05-11 11:07:08	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	500	95¢	$477	0x32f849…
05-11 09:07:06	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	500	95¢	$476	0x9e7f2d…
05-08 09:26:02	Spread: FK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciuc (-1.5)	FC UTA Arad	BUY	480	93¢	$446	0x298cb7…
05-08 09:21:57	Will Cuba recognize Israel by June 30	No	SELL	450	98¢	$443	0x54bb3b…
05-08 06:00:38	Will Cuba recognize Israel by June 30	No	BUY	450	99¢	$446	0x9ec5a4…
04-25 06:48:08	Spread: 1. FSV Mainz 05 (-2.5)	1. FSV Mainz 05	BUY	435	2¢	$10	0x5fd582…
04-25 06:47:52	Spread: 1. FSV Mainz 05 (-2.5)	1. FSV Mainz 05	BUY	405	2¢	$9	0x9f80b1…
04-21 11:09:44	chi jin sha 2026 04 21 spread home 2pt5	Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC	BUY	440	3¢	$12	0x7c8800…
04-21 11:09:32	chi jin sha 2026 04 21 spread home 2pt5	Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC	BUY	420	3¢	$12	0x54cfe9…
04-10 11:12:11	mex pue leo 2026 04 10 spread away 2pt5	Club Puebla	BUY	325	95¢	$309	0x24f299…
03-31 09:30:21	bra2 juv nov 2026 03 31 spread away 1pt5	EC Juventude	BUY	85	92¢	$78	0xecc0d8…
03-23 09:28:21	dota2 re lixoes 2026 03 23	Rune Eaters	BUY	20	83¢	$17	0x98efe9…