Quick-Cardboard — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$4.80K

Unrealized P&L

-$594

Hit rate

23.1%

Resolved

Trades

1,301

lifetime

Volume

$1.05M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$809

Open exposure

$23.9K

5 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 07-21 20:00

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

58% 100% +$147

Politics

42% 0% $-4,952

Sports

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

52 active days in 12wk • peak 20 trades/day

Open positions (5) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	+10,213	$9,515	99¢	$10.1K	+$590	07-07 16:14
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	+13,822	$10,616	70¢	$9.7K	$-871	07-21 20:00
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	No	+3,869	$2,977	78¢	$3.0K	+$60	07-15 06:05
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+2,198	$1,083	44¢	$978	$-105	07-20 09:55
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	No	+0	$269	56¢	$0	$-269	07-04 05:18

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	8	$47.3K	24,806	24,806	+0	open	—	04-27 06:10
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	7	$35.0K	22,270	15,000	+7,270	open	—	06-25 20:21
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	5	$28.4K	11,732	17,000	-5,268	open	—	06-29 16:56
will the slovenian democratic party sds win the most seats in the 2026 slovenian parliamentary election 344	32	$27.1K	17,976	18,123	-147	open	—	03-19 07:26
kharg island no longer under iranian control by april 15	4	$25.5K	13,421	13,421	+0	open	—	04-14 05:23
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	9	$24.9K	20,296	6,507	+13,790	open	—	05-30 07:19
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	5	$23.3K	5,000	18,500	-13,500	open	—	06-28 09:50
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	4	$22.3K	24,867	0	+24,867	open	—	04-14 05:23
will ph win the most seats in the 2026 colombian chamber of representatives election	21	$22.1K	13,228	13,228	+0	open	—	03-22 21:33
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	4	$21.8K	11,060	11,060	+0	open	—	05-26 05:39
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by April 30, 2026?	39	$20.9K	15,108	6,442	+8,667	open	—	04-30 00:02
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	10	$20.4K	11,386	11,386	+0	open	—	03-31 06:19
Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by March 31, 2026?	13	$20.4K	12,151	9,042	+3,109	open	—	03-31 22:22
Will Trump visit China by April 30?	93	$19.5K	16,143	16,804	-661	open	—	03-19 00:22
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 7 20260625174256255	5	$19.4K	9,797	9,797	+0	open	—	07-14 09:37
us forces in venezuela again by january 31 2026	53	$17.1K	11,832	7,707	+4,125	open	—	02-01 05:40
Will Trump visit China by May 31?	22	$16.6K	19,077	0	+19,077	open	—	05-03 06:18
ice shooter fired by march 31	13	$16.6K	14,356	4,380	+9,976	open	—	03-30 21:30
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	8	$15.0K	9,088	9,088	-0	open	—	02-06 07:23
kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	12	$14.4K	15,459	0	+15,459	open	—	07-20 13:40
russia x ukraine ceasefire by june 30 2026 631	2	$14.1K	7,157	7,157	+0	open	—	06-30 19:54
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	7	$13.7K	7,040	7,040	-0	open	—	07-16 07:44
kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	10	$13.7K	14,297	0	+14,297	open	—	07-20 13:40
iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by july 31	3	$13.0K	13,710	0	+13,710	open	—	07-01 06:11
Will Trump visit China by June 30?	10	$12.6K	15,353	0	+15,353	open	—	04-01 17:57
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	13	$12.1K	10,322	8,500	+1,822	open	—	04-11 18:12
will russia capture lyman by march 31 2026 494	19	$12.1K	18,599	0	+18,599	open	—	03-12 21:43
will ppso win the most seats in the 2026 costa rican legislative assembly election	37	$12.0K	10,085	2,825	+7,260	open	—	02-01 20:20
israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	5	$12.0K	12,540	0	+12,540	open	—	06-28 17:44
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Colombia's election?	28	$11.6K	12,803	0	+12,803	open	—	05-31 08:41

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-21 20:00:06	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	300	73¢	$219	0x9a35f0…
07-21 19:59:21	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	1,000	87¢	$870	0xf9ad4b…
07-21 08:49:40	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	500	75¢	$375	0xb0a48e…
07-20 19:36:33	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	2,000	87¢	$1,740	0x3453f4…
07-20 19:20:45	iran leadership change by july 31 20260629143932628	No	BUY	210	96¢	$202	0x227a2a…
07-20 13:41:45	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	1,000	77¢	$770	0x006079…
07-20 13:40:46	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	No	BUY	1,713	98¢	$1,675	0xbcf06d…
07-20 13:40:33	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	513	92¢	$473	0x8cb0a2…
07-20 13:39:52	will 50 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by july 31 2026	No	BUY	448	96¢	$431	0x31cf74…
07-20 09:55:55	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	400	50¢	$200	0xb07dfb…
07-20 09:44:15	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by july 31 2026 20260626152655082 171 832	No	BUY	95	96¢	$91	0xe2b4ba…
07-20 09:43:54	will 50 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by july 31 2026	No	BUY	400	96¢	$384	0x563cc0…
07-20 09:31:33	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by july 31 2026 20260626152655082 171 832	No	BUY	40	96¢	$38	0x4f8143…
07-20 09:31:25	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by july 31 2026 20260626152655082 171 832	No	BUY	21	96¢	$20	0x80a468…
07-20 09:23:30	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	1,135	92¢	$1,043	0x84cc25…
07-20 09:21:55	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	2,000	85¢	$1,700	0x84e56f…
07-20 09:19:21	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 18 20260715194822043	No	BUY	1,000	100¢	$999	0x8ddd20…
07-20 09:06:34	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	500	76¢	$380	0xa1beff…
07-19 11:32:46	iran military action against a gulf state on july 19 20260708212322944	Yes	BUY	150	96¢	$144	0x692665…
07-19 06:33:06	iran military action against a gulf state on july 18 20260708212322943	Yes	BUY	105	100¢	$104	0xe9b005…
07-19 06:23:09	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	No	BUY	2,841	96¢	$2,724	0xc8d74c…
07-18 17:03:55	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	No	BUY	300	97¢	$292	0xa9c8c6…
07-18 08:57:12	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	2,000	91¢	$1,819	0x95bb33…
07-18 06:46:57	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	200	50¢	$100	0x6ffaad…
07-18 06:02:03	will france send warships through the strait of hormuz by july 31 2026 20260701001952740	No	BUY	272	97¢	$263	0x403dd1…
07-18 06:01:36	will france send warships through the strait of hormuz by july 31 2026 20260701001952740	No	BUY	300	96¢	$289	0xfb5070…
07-18 05:49:36	will russia capture all of kostyantynivka by september 30 2026	No	SELL	30	83¢	$25	0x256500…
07-18 05:49:15	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	299	49¢	$147	0x99778d…
07-18 05:44:04	president trump to attend world cup final 20260608152749044	Yes	BUY	4,664	97¢	$4,544	0xac3d9b…
07-18 05:39:27	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	1,202	91¢	$1,089	0x9dc86a…
07-17 18:33:30	iran military action against a gulf state on july 17 20260708212322942	Yes	BUY	288	96¢	$277	0xb86eea…
07-17 16:29:18	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	63	92¢	$58	0xaecd5a…
07-17 16:29:03	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	No	BUY	550	98¢	$537	0x94edd1…
07-17 16:28:37	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	269	92¢	$248	0xbd3605…
07-17 16:28:19	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	98	91¢	$89	0x381bbf…
07-17 14:37:13	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	No	BUY	500	85¢	$425	0xf11db9…
07-17 11:08:03	will russia capture all of kostyantynivka by september 30 2026	No	BUY	30	86¢	$26	0x341caf…
07-17 11:01:18	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	702	93¢	$654	0xbe618e…
07-17 11:00:46	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	1,522	77¢	$1,172	0xa037eb…
07-16 07:49:32	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	10,000	77¢	$7,700	0xb7db41…
07-16 07:44:41	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	1,777	92¢	$1,638	0x182cf4…
07-16 07:44:11	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	SELL	6,710	100¢	$6,696	0x41869f…
07-15 06:05:16	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	No	BUY	24	77¢	$18	0x845320…
07-15 06:04:40	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	No	BUY	410	76¢	$314	0x3bdecb…
07-15 06:04:02	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	SELL	330	100¢	$329	0xcc1ac3…
07-14 09:37:29	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 7 20260625174256255	No	SELL	6,597	100¢	$6,591	0x2ba0d6…
07-14 09:26:22	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827 659	No	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0x23d607…
07-14 09:26:19	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827 659	No	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0x6f8845…
07-14 09:26:19	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827 659	No	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x0d67d6…
07-14 09:26:17	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827 659	No	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0xd4195d…
07-14 09:26:16	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827 659	No	BUY	448	94¢	$421	0x489332…
07-14 06:43:10	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	No	BUY	570	77¢	$439	0xb94277…
07-14 06:42:05	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 15 155	No	BUY	417	98¢	$408	0x96dd29…
07-14 06:41:38	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 7 20260625174256255	No	SELL	1,000	100¢	$999	0xa99b93…
07-14 06:35:14	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827 659	No	BUY	1,178	94¢	$1,105	0x28ee35…
07-14 06:31:49	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	No	BUY	520	97¢	$505	0x8352ca…
07-14 06:31:10	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	2,004	94¢	$1,884	0x5b43b4…
07-14 06:30:19	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 7 20260625174256255	No	SELL	2,200	100¢	$2,198	0x2957ad…
07-13 18:05:59	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	No	BUY	1,221	75¢	$914	0xe2e4b5…
07-13 18:04:41	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 17 2026 20260625223459704	No	BUY	1,000	96¢	$960	0x157461…
07-13 17:53:28	0 ships transit hormuz on any date by july 31 20260626172559970	No	SELL	402	79¢	$319	0x52bcf6…
07-13 17:22:28	iran charges hormuz fees by july 15 20260625175039061	No	BUY	1,574	94¢	$1,478	0x6e2733…
07-12 06:26:38	iran charges hormuz fees by july 15 20260625175039061	No	BUY	46	96¢	$44	0xce7867…
07-12 06:24:14	iran charges hormuz fees by july 15 20260625175039061	No	BUY	314	96¢	$301	0x036bb1…
07-12 06:23:16	iran charges hormuz fees by july 15 20260625175039061	No	BUY	660	96¢	$632	0x50623b…
07-12 06:19:22	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	120	95¢	$114	0x5c5938…
07-12 05:48:38	0 ships transit hormuz on any date by july 31 20260626172559970	No	BUY	367	86¢	$317	0xff036f…
07-12 05:48:38	0 ships transit hormuz on any date by july 31 20260626172559970	No	BUY	35	86¢	$30	0xeba023…
07-12 05:47:38	0 ships transit hormuz on any date by july 14 20260626172559969	No	BUY	97	94¢	$91	0x02786e…
07-12 05:43:28	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	No	BUY	3,000	97¢	$2,922	0x000d8b…
07-09 05:59:20	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	No	BUY	1,172	77¢	$902	0x1a70c2…
07-09 05:58:07	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	5,577	95¢	$5,296	0xd193d7…
07-08 16:55:52	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 10 2026 20260622191708360	No	SELL	2,321	99¢	$2,293	0x9a31ae…
07-08 16:47:02	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 10 2026 20260622191708360	No	SELL	1,005	99¢	$992	0x142d79…
07-07 16:14:58	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	5,000	94¢	$4,700	0xd09a55…
07-07 16:08:50	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	4,000	94¢	$3,760	0xf92655…
07-07 05:29:44	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	No	BUY	2,263	77¢	$1,743	0xa782d0…
07-07 05:26:50	will france send warships through the strait of hormuz by july 31 2026 20260701001952740	No	BUY	54	97¢	$52	0x042bcd…
07-06 17:31:22	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	1,213	87¢	$1,055	0x848b8d…
07-05 09:49:16	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	46¢	$5	0xfc21ec…
07-05 07:54:35	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	BUY	2,038	96¢	$1,960	0x6b6958…
07-05 07:44:46	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 3 2026 20260622191708359	No	SELL	4,038	100¢	$4,034	0x8fc2f8…
07-05 07:43:40	will russia capture all of kostyantynivka by september 30 2026	No	SELL	26	76¢	$20	0xe7dd8c…
07-05 07:41:37	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3,087	49¢	$1,525	0x64d840…
07-04 18:19:19	will marco rubio attend nato summit	Yes	BUY	52	97¢	$51	0x98dfd7…
07-04 17:38:52	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	BUY	3,850	96¢	$3,696	0x8b623b…
07-04 17:05:20	will russia capture all of kostyantynivka by july 31 2026	No	BUY	230	95¢	$218	0x68f30f…
07-04 14:11:11	will russia capture all of kostyantynivka by july 31 2026	No	BUY	415	93¢	$387	0x332856…
07-04 10:07:25	will russia capture all of kostyantynivka by july 31 2026	No	BUY	1,324	95¢	$1,255	0xcc3be5…
07-04 05:18:55	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	2,638	56¢	$1,477	0x22d249…
07-04 04:45:37	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	Yes	SELL	6,310	56¢	$3,533	0xcc60c4…
07-03 17:49:37	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	Yes	BUY	483	78¢	$376	0xa902b1…
07-03 17:49:11	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	Yes	BUY	204	77¢	$157	0x49da6e…
07-03 16:33:23	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 3 2026 20260622191708359	No	BUY	500	99¢	$494	0xbd4d71…
07-03 16:33:05	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 3 2026 20260622191708359	No	BUY	112	99¢	$110	0x78613c…
07-03 16:32:38	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 3 2026 20260622191708359	No	BUY	90	99¢	$89	0x5f2f8e…
07-03 06:19:59	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 3 2026 20260622191708359	No	BUY	1,000	99¢	$993	0xb8c0d2…
07-03 06:18:31	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	BUY	1,000	93¢	$930	0x5bc0a1…
07-02 18:16:17	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 20260622191708361	Yes	BUY	5,623	72¢	$4,023	0xf6fcf9…
07-02 18:15:16	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 3 2026 20260622191708359	No	BUY	2,337	99¢	$2,315	0x68e0aa…