Realized P&L
-$38
Unrealized P&L
+$3
Hit rate
88.6%
Resolved
277
Trades
3,819
lifetime
Volume
$14.6K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$4
Open exposure
$253
30 positions
First seen
2026-06-27
last 10-28 16:46
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 47 days
Categories
Other
63% 84% +$7
Politics
20% 78% -$14
Crypto
9% 60% -$5
Tech
6% 60% -$25
Pop-Culture
1% — —
Sports
0% — —
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
60 active days in 12wk • peak 211 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? No +20 $19 96¢ $19 +$1 10-27 05:31
Any Brazil STF Justice removed by impeachment before 2027? No +20 $18 96¢ $19 +$1 10-26 10:15
Will Philadelphia Union win the 2026 MLS Cup? No +20 $18 94¢ $19 +$1 10-26 16:08
Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice? No +20 $17 92¢ $18 +$2 10-27 00:20
Will Tesla sell a Cybercab for 30k or less in 2026? No +20 $17 88¢ $18 +$1 10-28 15:17
Will there be Houthi military action against Israel by December 31, 2026? No +20 $18 88¢ $18 -$1 10-26 21:28
Will Russia enter Khatnie by December 31, 2026? No +20 $15 76¢ $15 +$0 10-27 16:51
Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $1.75T and $2.00T? No +20 $16 66¢ $13 -$3 10-26 11:48
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026? No +20 $12 57¢ $11 -$1 10-28 09:31
Will no next Israeli Minister of Justice be appointed by February 28, 2027? No +20 $12 52¢ $10 -$2 10-26 21:38
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027? No +8 $6 66¢ $5 -$1 10-23 18:22
Macron out by December 31, 2026? No +5 $5 96¢ $5 +$0 10-02 15:32
Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026? No +5 $5 96¢ $5 +$0 10-05 17:41
U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31? No +5 $5 96¢ $5 +$0 10-25 22:39
Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026? No +5 $5 95¢ $5 +$0 10-16 08:19
Sam Altman out as OpenAI CEO before 2027? No +5 $5 95¢ $5 +$0 10-23 22:04
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.75% or higher before 2027? No +5 $5 95¢ $5 +$0 10-21 11:26
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026? No +5 $5 94¢ $5 +$0 10-22 21:32
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 52 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? No +5 $5 94¢ $5 $0 09-08 00:46
Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by December 31, 2026? No +5 $5 93¢ $5 +$0 10-24 05:27
Felix Protocol FDV above $25M one day after launch? No +5 $4 92¢ $5 +$0 10-24 06:28
Will Solana dip to $60 by December 31, 2026? No +5 $4 91¢ $5 +$1 10-05 07:48
U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027? No +5 $4 91¢ $5 +$0 10-24 08:11
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Pakistan" before 2027? No +5 $4 90¢ $5 +$0 09-18 23:01
Will OpenAI announce earbuds or headphones in 2026? No +5 $4 88¢ $4 +$0 10-25 22:27
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,200 (LOW) in December? No +5 $3 87¢ $4 +$1 10-10 14:39
Will any AI model reach 1575 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026? No +5 $3 86¢ $4 +$1 09-30 20:14
Viktor Orbán arrested by December 31? No +5 $4 86¢ $4 $0 10-21 06:40
Will Sergio Massa win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? No +5 $5 84¢ $4 $0 10-08 06:20
Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration before 2027? No +5 $3 84¢ $4 +$1 10-22 18:52