Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$37

Unrealized P&L

+$5

Hit rate

88.1%

Resolved

284

Trades

4,039

lifetime

Volume

$17.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$242

30 positions

First seen

2026-06-27

last 10-31 15:41

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 49 days

Categories

Other

64% 85% +$8

Politics

19% 78% -$14

Crypto

9% 57% -$6

Tech

6% 60% -$25

Pop-Culture

1% — —

Sports

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

63 active days in 12wk • peak 211 trades/day

Open positions (30) Resolved markets (8) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Israel annex any territory by December 31?	No		+20	$18	97¢	$19	+$2	10-28 19:48
Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?	No		+20	$19	95¢	$19	+$0	10-30 21:46
Will there be Houthi military action against Israel by December 31, 2026?	No		+20	$18	90¢	$18	-$1	10-26 21:28
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 1.5T and 1.8T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?	No		+20	$15	78¢	$15	+$0	10-30 07:52
Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $1.75T and $2.00T?	No		+20	$17	74¢	$15	-$2	10-30 08:28
Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31?	No		+15	$13	92¢	$14	+$1	10-30 19:19
Will Bitcoin have the best performance in 2026?	No		+15	$11	85¢	$13	+$2	10-29 15:20
Will Susie Wiles leave the Trump administration before 2027?	No		+20	$12	63¢	$13	+$0	10-29 17:27
Will Vancouver Whitecaps FC win the 2026 MLS Cup?	No		+15	$12	83¢	$12	+$0	10-30 13:58
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?	No		+20	$12	55¢	$11	-$1	10-28 09:31
Will exactly 2 Israeli legislative elections occur before a government is formed?	No	—	+15	$8	55¢	$8	$0	10-30 07:23
Macron out by December 31, 2026?	No		+5	$5	97¢	$5	+$0	10-02 15:32
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027?	No		+8	$6	63¢	$5	-$1	10-23 18:22
Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026?	No		+5	$5	96¢	$5	+$0	10-05 17:41
Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026?	No		+5	$5	95¢	$5	+$0	10-16 08:19
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 52 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	No		+5	$5	94¢	$5	$0	09-08 00:46
Sam Altman out as OpenAI CEO before 2027?	No		+5	$5	94¢	$5	+$0	10-23 22:04
Felix Protocol FDV above $25M one day after launch?	No		+5	$4	92¢	$5	+$0	10-24 06:28
Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by December 31, 2026?	No		+5	$5	92¢	$5	+$0	10-24 05:27
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Pakistan" before 2027?	No		+5	$4	92¢	$5	+$0	09-18 23:01
Will Solana dip to $60 by December 31, 2026?	No		+5	$4	89¢	$4	+$1	10-05 07:48
Viktor Orbán arrested by December 31?	No		+5	$4	87¢	$4	+$0	10-21 06:40
Will OpenAI announce earbuds or headphones in 2026?	No		+5	$4	87¢	$4	+$0	10-25 22:27
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,200 (LOW) in December?	No		+5	$3	87¢	$4	+$1	10-10 14:39
Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration before 2027?	No		+5	$3	86¢	$4	+$1	10-22 18:52
U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?	No		+5	$4	86¢	$4	$0	10-24 08:11
Will Sergio Massa win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?	No		+5	$5	85¢	$4	$0	10-08 06:20
Will any AI model reach 1575 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	No		+5	$3	84¢	$4	+$1	09-30 20:14
Will OpenAI's IPO valuation be between $1.5T and $1.75T?	No		+5	$5	83¢	$4	$0	10-08 08:14
Will Monero hit $1000 in 2026?	No		+5	$4	83¢	$4	$0	09-14 20:51

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Lionel Messi finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	35	$254	148	148	+0	No	+$3	10-26 22:26
Will Ousmane Dembélé finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	26	$219	125	125	+0	No	+$4	10-26 22:54
Will Michael Olise finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	28	$183	118	118	+0	No	+$10	10-26 22:52
Will the next governing coalition of Sweden include M + KD + L?	6	$109	60	60	+0	open	—	10-29 15:09
Will Lamine Yamal finish in the top 2 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	11	$108	70	70	+0	No	+$3	10-26 22:45
Will the next UK election be called by December 31, 2026?	11	$106	70	50	+20	open	—	10-31 02:50
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in September?	30	$99	70	65	+5	Yes	-$2	09-05 14:08
Anthropic IPO closing market cap above $2.25T?	9	$96	60	60	+0	open	—	10-31 07:38
Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?	25	$86	60	60	+0	open	—	09-09 11:26
Will Bitcoin have the best performance in 2026?	15	$86	60	45	+15	open	—	10-29 15:20
Will the lowest 2026 Great Salt Lake elevation be 4,189.5 or 4,189.6 ft?	10	$86	45	45	+0	open	—	10-31 03:37
Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice?	17	$84	50	50	+0	open	—	10-28 22:29
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	9	$84	45	45	+0	open	—	10-29 06:24
Blue mega-tsunami in 2026?	6	$83	60	60	+0	open	—	10-31 08:43
Will Yair Lapid be the next Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs?	9	$80	60	40	+20	open	—	10-30 19:34
Josh O'Connor announced as next James Bond?	6	$79	45	45	+0	open	—	10-30 16:01
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Israeli Minister of Defense?	7	$76	45	45	+0	open	—	10-28 09:37
Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $1.25T and $1.50T?	5	$75	40	40	+0	open	—	10-31 01:59
Will "Behemoth!" be nominated for Best Original Score at the 99th Academy Awards?	8	$75	61	42	+19	open	—	10-30 13:59
Will Bitcoin hit $100k by December 31, 2026?	19	$74	60	40	+20	open	—	10-31 00:01
Any Brazil STF Justice removed by impeachment before 2027?	9	$74	39	39	+0	open	—	10-29 17:39
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1520 by December 31?	17	$71	42	42	+0	Yes	+$3	09-15 23:37
Will Abstract launch a token by December 31, 2026	18	$70	45	45	+0	open	—	10-01 07:29
Jair Bolsonaro released from custody by March 31, 2027?	6	$69	45	45	+0	open	—	10-28 16:46
Predict.fun FDV above $2.5B one day after launch?	4	$69	40	40	+0	open	—	10-28 12:43
Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia finish 5th in the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	5	$68	39	39	+0	No	+$1	10-26 20:07
Will Ethereum dip to $1,750 by December 31, 2026?	19	$68	41	41	+0	open	—	09-18 13:47
Ink FDV above $100M one day after launch?	12	$68	45	45	+0	open	—	10-28 17:30
Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	17	$66	40	40	+0	No	+$1	09-04 19:48
Another critical PHP security flaw in 2026?	8	$62	60	40	+20	open	—	10-30 23:47

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-31 16:22:49	Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?	No	SELL	4	95¢	$4	0x09d539…
10-31 16:22:46	Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?	No	SELL	11	95¢	$11	0xb90e86…
10-31 16:17:07	Will Discord’s market cap be less than $5B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?	No	SELL	15	99¢	$14	0x105420…
10-31 16:14:04	Will Pacifica launch a token by December 31 2026?	No	SELL	5	86¢	$4	0x90ea1f…
10-31 16:09:00	1win FDV above $150M one day after launch?	No	SELL	20	85¢	$17	0x711aa6…
10-31 16:08:27	Will the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher?	No	SELL	4	78¢	$3	0x16c045…
10-31 15:41:37	Sweden snap election called in 2026?	No	SELL	20	83¢	$17	0xbc58d3…
10-31 15:41:28	Will the next governing coalition of Sweden include S?	No	SELL	4	85¢	$4	0x64cf7f…
10-31 15:41:28	Will the next governing coalition of Sweden include S?	No	SELL	16	85¢	$13	0x1ffb12…
10-31 14:46:37	Will Pope Leo XIV be TIME Person of the Year 2026?	No	SELL	10	84¢	$8	0x9d92a2…
10-31 12:54:40	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut at a score of at least 1500 by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	20	86¢	$17	0x82e07e…
10-31 12:43:42	Another NATO Article 4 invocation by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	7	76¢	$5	0xc222ba…
10-31 12:19:40	Will Ukraine re-enter Obratne or Temyrivka by December 31?	No	SELL	20	76¢	$15	0x8b9571…
10-31 11:47:18	Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.70% before 2027?	No	SELL	9	80¢	$7	0xab2725…
10-31 11:31:13	Will "Toy Story 5" be nominated for Best Adapted Screenplay at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	BUY	20	93¢	$19	0x700fd5…
10-31 11:02:55	Katy Perry and Justin Trudeau engaged by end of 2026?	No	BUY	20	92¢	$18	0x6b0d98…
10-31 09:13:52	Will "Elsinore" be nominated for Best Film Editing at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	BUY	8	84¢	$7	0xa3ff7a…
10-31 08:43:03	Blue mega-tsunami in 2026?	No	SELL	20	70¢	$14	0x440673…
10-31 08:22:25	Blue mega-tsunami in 2026?	No	BUY	20	68¢	$14	0x53934f…
10-31 07:50:21	Blue mega-tsunami in 2026?	No	SELL	20	70¢	$14	0xf3b01e…
10-31 07:38:27	Anthropic IPO closing market cap above $2.25T?	No	SELL	20	78¢	$16	0xf5e61e…
10-31 05:57:00	Will Apple’s market capitalization be between $4.50T and $5.00T at the end of 2026?	No	SELL	0	89¢	$0	0x82d906…
10-31 05:55:39	Will the lowest 2026 Great Salt Lake elevation be below 4,189.3 ft?	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x5ccc8d…
10-31 05:54:55	Will Dricus Du Plessis fight Nasourdine Imavov next?	No	SELL	5	89¢	$4	0x3e38a3…
10-31 04:54:31	Will Renate Reinsve be nominated for Best Actress at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	BUY	20	75¢	$15	0xd92b13…
10-31 04:46:30	Blue mega-tsunami in 2026?	No	BUY	20	68¢	$14	0xcdd870…
10-31 04:22:34	Will "The Debut" be nominated for Best Casting at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	BUY	15	61¢	$9	0x3adfec…
10-31 03:56:52	Will "The Dreamed Adventure" be nominated for Best International Feature Film at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	BUY	10	82¢	$8	0xd0ed03…
10-31 03:37:15	Will the lowest 2026 Great Salt Lake elevation be 4,189.5 or 4,189.6 ft?	No	SELL	20	99¢	$20	0x83d7a4…
10-31 03:26:49	Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?	No	BUY	20	66¢	$13	0x1621e4…
10-31 03:21:55	Will the lowest 2026 Great Salt Lake elevation be 4,189.5 or 4,189.6 ft?	No	BUY	19	93¢	$17	0x320246…
10-31 03:19:34	Will the lowest 2026 Great Salt Lake elevation be 4,189.5 or 4,189.6 ft?	No	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0x7fbc03…
10-31 03:08:49	Will the lowest 2026 Great Salt Lake elevation be 4,189.5 or 4,189.6 ft?	No	SELL	20	94¢	$19	0x896c01…
10-31 02:50:43	Will the next UK election be called by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	20	89¢	$18	0xb082da…
10-31 02:50:37	Anthropic IPO closing market cap above $2.25T?	No	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0xf6d797…
10-31 02:49:37	Anthropic IPO closing market cap above $2.25T?	No	BUY	19	76¢	$14	0x6dea1f…
10-31 01:59:52	Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $1.25T and $1.50T?	No	SELL	20	97¢	$19	0x81254d…
10-31 01:54:46	1win FDV above $70M one day after launch?	No	SELL	17	54¢	$9	0x03b728…
10-31 01:42:10	Will Pope Leo XIV be TIME Person of the Year 2026?	No	BUY	6	83¢	$5	0xcdd69c…
10-31 01:42:10	Will Pope Leo XIV be TIME Person of the Year 2026?	No	BUY	3	83¢	$3	0x95c4e4…
10-31 00:01:30	Will Bitcoin hit $100k by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	20	86¢	$17	0x66fd9e…
10-30 23:47:13	Another critical PHP security flaw in 2026?	No	SELL	0	67¢	$0	0xa89871…
10-30 23:43:16	Will the Republican Party win the TX-35 House seat?	No	SELL	5	74¢	$4	0xa3caa9…
10-30 23:39:34	Will Renate Reinsve be nominated for Best Actress at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	SELL	6	69¢	$4	0x124005…
10-30 23:35:33	Will Pedro Pascal be nominated for Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	SELL	15	85¢	$13	0xa6da56…
10-30 23:00:45	Anthropic IPO closing market cap above $2.25T?	No	SELL	10	83¢	$8	0xbb25d0…
10-30 22:54:09	Another NATO Article 4 invocation by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	7	72¢	$5	0x2e3204…
10-30 22:40:13	Will the lowest 2026 Great Salt Lake elevation be below 4,189.3 ft?	No	BUY	20	95¢	$19	0x3167f2…
10-30 21:46:28	Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?	No	BUY	20	94¢	$19	0x49d533…
10-30 20:13:37	Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?	No	SELL	5	40¢	$2	0x6ae967…
10-30 20:02:09	Viktor Orbán arrested by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	20	67¢	$13	0xc4e2e6…
10-30 19:58:49	Will Waymo launch in Sacramento, CA by December 31 2026?	No	SELL	20	93¢	$19	0x22e0c4…
10-30 19:41:45	Will Shas be in the next Israeli government?	No	BUY	20	91¢	$18	0x6e54f7…
10-30 19:34:31	Will Yair Lapid be the next Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs?	No	BUY	20	83¢	$17	0x3a67fd…
10-30 19:19:54	Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31?	No	SELL	2	93¢	$2	0x924782…
10-30 19:19:06	Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31?	No	SELL	2	93¢	$2	0x2bf19f…
10-30 18:58:31	Anthropic IPO closing market cap above $2.25T?	No	SELL	10	83¢	$8	0xe1b223…
10-30 18:47:15	Blue mega-tsunami in 2026?	No	SELL	20	69¢	$14	0xbfbdda…
10-30 17:28:45	Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.55% before 2027?	No	BUY	20	53¢	$11	0x7edbbe…
10-30 17:19:45	Blue mega-tsunami in 2026?	No	BUY	20	68¢	$14	0x88ef07…
10-30 17:17:27	Will Waymo operate in 20-23 cities on December 31 2026?	No	BUY	20	90¢	$18	0x0a1f20…
10-30 17:01:46	Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31?	No	SELL	2	93¢	$2	0x52f688…
10-30 16:54:06	Will "The Adventures of Cliff Booth" be nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	BUY	20	85¢	$17	0x1c4aa3…
10-30 16:01:31	Josh O'Connor announced as next James Bond?	No	SELL	20	91¢	$18	0x588e24…
10-30 15:59:52	Will Yair Lapid be the next Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs?	No	SELL	14	81¢	$11	0x1afaac…
10-30 15:59:52	Will Yair Lapid be the next Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs?	No	SELL	2	81¢	$2	0x161993…
10-30 15:25:43	1win FDV above $70M one day after launch?	No	BUY	17	51¢	$9	0x40b802…
10-30 15:23:51	Will Pedro Pascal be nominated for Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	SELL	5	84¢	$4	0xe1b49d…
10-30 15:10:22	Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	No	SELL	5	56¢	$3	0xc99f29…
10-30 15:02:55	Will the SpaceX Starship launch from Florida by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	5	80¢	$4	0x6e0c8b…
10-30 14:50:42	Will Yair Lapid be the next Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs?	No	SELL	4	81¢	$3	0x1a5df8…
10-30 14:22:51	Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by December 31?	No	SELL	5	85¢	$4	0xfda58c…
10-30 14:08:15	Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $1.25T and $1.50T?	No	BUY	20	93¢	$19	0x5ae3e7…
10-30 14:00:46	Anthropic IPO closing market cap above $2.25T?	No	BUY	20	82¢	$16	0xc3c959…
10-30 13:59:39	Will "Behemoth!" be nominated for Best Original Score at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	BUY	16	75¢	$12	0xe7855f…
10-30 13:58:55	Will Vancouver Whitecaps FC win the 2026 MLS Cup?	No	BUY	15	83¢	$12	0x124f14…
10-30 13:57:52	Will the Republican Party win the FL-14 House seat?	No	SELL	5	74¢	$4	0xdf7d8e…
10-30 13:36:42	Will Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5	64¢	$3	0x202d7e…
10-30 13:35:54	Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026?	No	SELL	5	97¢	$5	0xeea926…
10-30 13:18:58	Anthropic IPO closing market cap above $2.25T?	No	SELL	19	83¢	$16	0x20729c…
10-30 12:26:24	1win FDV above $150M one day after launch?	No	BUY	20	84¢	$17	0x288648…
10-30 12:20:57	Will Pragmata win Best Game Direction at the 2026 Game Awards?	No	BUY	20	92¢	$18	0x84d0ab…
10-30 12:01:46	Will Pedro Pascal be nominated for Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	BUY	20	83¢	$17	0xc7c3f1…
10-30 11:21:57	Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 6.00% and 6.49%?	No	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x878d5a…
10-30 10:57:37	Will United Torah Judaism be in the next Israeli government?	No	SELL	20	83¢	$17	0x0d5374…
10-30 10:18:21	James Norton announced as next James Bond?	No	SELL	0	99¢	$0	0xd06c10…
10-30 10:18:21	James Norton announced as next James Bond?	No	SELL	15	99¢	$15	0x2d6332…
10-30 10:18:19	James Norton announced as next James Bond?	No	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0xd8d9ad…
10-30 10:03:45	Will China's annual inflation in 2026 be between 0.1% and 0.5%?	No	SELL	4	91¢	$4	0x590a42…
10-30 09:58:22	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	No	SELL	20	64¢	$13	0x7802ce…
10-30 09:20:54	Will The Odyssey win Best Adapted Screenplay at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	BUY	20	79¢	$16	0x32b617…
10-30 09:10:45	Will "Behemoth!" be nominated for Best Original Score at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	SELL	17	76¢	$13	0xe5d833…
10-30 08:39:28	Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	SELL	20	78¢	$16	0xd2772f…
10-30 08:28:57	Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $1.75T and $2.00T?	No	BUY	20	84¢	$17	0x14987f…
10-30 08:21:15	Will Elon Musk attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	20	94¢	$19	0xde1b74…
10-30 07:52:28	Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 1.5T and 1.8T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?	No	BUY	18	77¢	$14	0x564d82…
10-30 07:46:00	Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $1.75T and $2.00T?	No	SELL	20	81¢	$16	0x48ca9d…
10-30 07:40:55	Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by December 31?	No	SELL	20	94¢	$19	0xfb6ac0…
10-30 07:38:28	Lecornu out as French PM by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	17	84¢	$14	0x1a2ecd…
10-30 07:38:22	Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?	No	SELL	5	93¢	$5	0xeb3a1e…