Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L (90d)

-$38

Unrealized P&L

+$5

Hit rate

88.0%

Resolved (90d)

281

Trades (90d)

3,934

3,935 lifetime

Volume (90d)

$16.1K

$16.1K lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$239

30 positions

First seen

2026-06-27

last 10-30 08:39

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 49 days

Categories

Other

64% 85% +$8

Politics

20% 78% -$14

Crypto

9% 50% -$6

Tech

6% 60% -$25

Pop-Culture

1% — —

Sports

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

62 active days in 12wk • peak 211 trades/day

Open positions (30) Resolved markets (9) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Israel annex any territory by December 31?	No	+20	$18	97¢	$19	+$2	10-28 19:48
Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31?	No	+20	$18	92¢	$18	+$0	10-30 07:30
Will there be Houthi military action against Israel by December 31, 2026?	No	+20	$18	88¢	$18	-$1	10-26 21:28
Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $1.75T and $2.00T?	No	+20	$17	80¢	$16	-$1	10-30 08:28
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 1.5T and 1.8T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?	No	+20	$15	75¢	$15	$0	10-30 07:52
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?	No	+15	$14	94¢	$14	+$0	10-30 07:38
Will Bitcoin have the best performance in 2026?	No	+15	$11	86¢	$13	+$2	10-29 15:20
Will Susie Wiles leave the Trump administration before 2027?	No	+20	$12	64¢	$13	+$1	10-29 17:27
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?	No	+20	$12	57¢	$11	-$1	10-28 09:31
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	No	+20	$12	56¢	$11	-$1	10-29 23:38
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027?	No	+8	$6	70¢	$5	$0	10-23 18:22
Macron out by December 31, 2026?	No	+5	$5	96¢	$5	+$0	10-02 15:32
Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026?	No	+5	$5	96¢	$5	+$0	10-05 17:41
Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026?	No	+5	$5	95¢	$5	+$0	10-16 08:19
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026?	No	+5	$5	95¢	$5	+$0	10-22 21:32
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 52 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	No	+5	$5	93¢	$5	$0	09-08 00:46
Sam Altman out as OpenAI CEO before 2027?	No	+5	$5	93¢	$5	$0	10-23 22:04
Felix Protocol FDV above $25M one day after launch?	No	+5	$4	92¢	$5	+$0	10-24 06:28
Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by December 31, 2026?	No	+5	$5	92¢	$5	+$0	10-24 05:27
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Pakistan" before 2027?	No	+5	$4	91¢	$5	+$0	09-18 23:01
U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?	No	+5	$4	90¢	$4	+$0	10-24 08:11
Will Solana dip to $60 by December 31, 2026?	No	+5	$4	89¢	$4	+$1	10-05 07:48
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,200 (LOW) in December?	No	+5	$3	87¢	$4	+$1	10-10 14:39
Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration before 2027?	No	+5	$3	86¢	$4	+$1	10-22 18:52
Viktor Orbán arrested by December 31?	No	+5	$4	86¢	$4	$0	10-21 06:40
Will Sergio Massa win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?	No	+5	$5	85¢	$4	$0	10-08 06:20
Will OpenAI announce earbuds or headphones in 2026?	No	+5	$4	84¢	$4	+$0	10-25 22:27
Will Monero hit $1000 in 2026?	No	+5	$4	84¢	$4	$0	09-14 20:51
Will any AI model reach 1575 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	No	+5	$3	84¢	$4	+$1	09-30 20:14
Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by December 31?	No	+5	$4	83¢	$4	+$0	09-15 16:56

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Lionel Messi finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	35	$254	148	148	+0	No	+$3	10-26 22:26
Will Ousmane Dembélé finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	26	$219	125	125	+0	No	+$4	10-26 22:54
Will Michael Olise finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	28	$183	118	118	+0	No	+$10	10-26 22:52
Will the next governing coalition of Sweden include M + KD + L?	6	$109	60	60	+0	open	—	10-29 15:09
Will Lamine Yamal finish in the top 2 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	11	$108	70	70	+0	No	+$3	10-26 22:45
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in September?	30	$99	70	65	+5	Yes	-$2	09-05 14:08
Will the next UK election be called by December 31, 2026?	10	$88	50	50	+0	open	—	10-28 07:41
Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?	25	$86	60	60	+0	open	—	09-09 11:26
Will Bitcoin have the best performance in 2026?	15	$86	60	45	+15	open	—	10-29 15:20
Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice?	17	$84	50	50	+0	open	—	10-28 22:29
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	9	$84	45	45	+0	open	—	10-29 06:24
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Israeli Minister of Defense?	7	$76	45	45	+0	open	—	10-28 09:37
Any Brazil STF Justice removed by impeachment before 2027?	9	$74	39	39	+0	open	—	10-29 17:39
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1520 by December 31?	17	$71	42	42	+0	Yes	+$3	09-15 23:37
Will Abstract launch a token by December 31, 2026	18	$70	45	45	+0	open	—	10-01 07:29
Jair Bolsonaro released from custody by March 31, 2027?	6	$69	45	45	+0	open	—	10-28 16:46
Predict.fun FDV above $2.5B one day after launch?	4	$69	40	40	+0	open	—	10-28 12:43
Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia finish 5th in the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	5	$68	39	39	+0	No	+$1	10-26 20:07
Will Ethereum dip to $1,750 by December 31, 2026?	19	$68	41	41	+0	open	—	09-18 13:47
Ink FDV above $100M one day after launch?	12	$68	45	45	+0	open	—	10-28 17:30
Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	17	$66	40	40	+0	No	+$1	09-04 19:48
Another critical PHP security flaw in 2026?	7	$62	60	40	+20	open	—	10-28 13:38
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	6	$62	45	25	+20	open	—	10-28 15:14
Will Tesla sell a Cybercab for 30k or less in 2026?	9	$61	35	35	+0	open	—	10-30 02:03
Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026?	31	$61	66	66	+0	open	—	10-24 08:52
Josh O'Connor announced as next James Bond?	5	$61	45	25	+20	open	—	10-30 00:30
Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch?	12	$60	45	45	+0	open	—	10-30 08:39
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	16	$59	35	35	+0	open	—	09-17 01:03
Will Bitcoin hit $100k by December 31, 2026?	18	$57	40	40	+0	open	—	10-27 16:17
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?	14	$56	35	35	+0	No	+$0	09-06 18:04

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-30 08:39:28	Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	SELL	20	78¢	$16	0xd2772f…
10-30 08:28:57	Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $1.75T and $2.00T?	No	BUY	20	84¢	$17	0x14987f…
10-30 08:21:15	Will Elon Musk attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	20	94¢	$19	0xde1b74…
10-30 07:52:28	Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 1.5T and 1.8T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?	No	BUY	18	77¢	$14	0x564d82…
10-30 07:46:00	Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $1.75T and $2.00T?	No	SELL	20	81¢	$16	0x48ca9d…
10-30 07:40:55	Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by December 31?	No	SELL	20	94¢	$19	0xfb6ac0…
10-30 07:38:28	Lecornu out as French PM by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	17	84¢	$14	0x1a2ecd…
10-30 07:38:22	Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?	No	SELL	5	93¢	$5	0xeb3a1e…
10-30 07:36:34	Will "Behemoth!" be nominated for Best Original Score at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	BUY	2	73¢	$1	0x0dd3bc…
10-30 07:30:51	Will "Behemoth!" be nominated for Best Original Score at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	BUY	18	73¢	$13	0xa2f7a8…
10-30 07:30:37	Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31?	No	BUY	20	92¢	$18	0x7906f0…
10-30 07:30:00	Will USD be between 2.5M and 3.0M Iranian rials on December 31?	No	SELL	5	69¢	$3	0x670f5e…
10-30 07:23:21	Will exactly 2 Israeli legislative elections occur before a government is formed?	No	BUY	15	56¢	$8	0x534b70…
10-30 05:39:57	Will Renate Reinsve be nominated for Best Actress at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	BUY	6	68¢	$4	0xd50105…
10-30 05:15:54	Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	BUY	20	73¢	$15	0x05ff48…
10-30 04:29:13	Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.80% before 2027?	No	SELL	20	87¢	$17	0x8eb2bc…
10-30 03:17:51	Anthropic IPO closing market cap above $2.25T?	No	SELL	1	82¢	$1	0x178b95…
10-30 02:45:12	Anthropic IPO closing market cap above $2.25T?	No	BUY	20	79¢	$16	0xdc0f24…
10-30 02:42:25	Further substantive progress on the Riemann Hypothesis by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	20	83¢	$17	0x176cd5…
10-30 02:07:33	Will the UK’s 2026 inflation be between 3.0% and 3.4%?	No	SELL	5	70¢	$4	0x6e8e9c…
10-30 02:07:31	Will the UK’s 2026 inflation be between 3.0% and 3.4%?	No	SELL	15	70¢	$10	0x3feec6…
10-30 02:03:36	Will Tesla sell a Cybercab for 30k or less in 2026?	No	SELL	20	89¢	$18	0x251839…
10-30 01:30:16	Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	No	SELL	14	97¢	$14	0x1c9e5f…
10-30 01:06:33	Will Solana hit $60 or $140 first?	$140	SELL	18	65¢	$11	0x5e14bd…
10-30 01:06:31	Will Ethereum hit $1,000 or $3,000 first?	$3,000	SELL	5	75¢	$4	0xc2b0d5…
10-30 00:39:27	Will Gold (GC) dip to (LOW) $3,500 by end of December?	No	BUY	20	87¢	$17	0x9fe6f2…
10-30 00:30:06	Josh O'Connor announced as next James Bond?	No	BUY	20	89¢	$18	0xe1d1ca…
10-30 00:21:48	Will three people dissent the January Fed decision?	No	SELL	20	80¢	$16	0xdaec41…
10-29 23:44:55	Will RZP-Zehut be in the next Israeli government?	No	BUY	0	68¢	$0	0x4edbaf…
10-29 23:38:39	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	No	BUY	20	63¢	$13	0xc83f4a…
10-29 23:37:46	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	No	SELL	5	48¢	$2	0x3fb7db…
10-29 23:15:54	Will "The Adventures of Cliff Booth" be nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	SELL	10	87¢	$9	0x18ca26…
10-29 23:15:46	Will "The Adventures of Cliff Booth" be nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	SELL	10	87¢	$9	0x236210…
10-29 22:30:46	Will Shas be in the next Israeli government?	No	SELL	5	79¢	$4	0x52c1e3…
10-29 22:29:48	Will Shas be in the next Israeli government?	No	SELL	15	79¢	$12	0x479ca0…
10-29 22:11:18	Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 6.00% before 2027?	No	SELL	5	95¢	$5	0x271a5c…
10-29 22:02:43	Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in December 2026 (ET)?	No	SELL	20	92¢	$18	0xe1f4a0…
10-29 21:39:04	Will three people dissent the January Fed decision?	No	BUY	20	78¢	$16	0x3b5acb…
10-29 21:22:48	Will Trump deport 200-300k people?	No	BUY	7	92¢	$6	0xd22f5f…
10-29 21:22:43	Will Trump deport 200-300k people?	No	BUY	13	93¢	$12	0x43fff0…
10-29 21:13:16	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	No	SELL	20	71¢	$14	0xdf44d8…
10-29 19:39:24	Will Zcash dip to $700 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	6	89¢	$5	0x0db905…
10-29 19:39:16	Will Zcash dip to $700 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	14	89¢	$12	0x995f22…
10-29 19:09:19	Russia military action against an EU country by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	9¢	$2	0x813f40…
10-29 17:48:55	Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	20	80¢	$16	0x280bad…
10-29 17:48:47	Will Shas be in the next Israeli government?	No	BUY	20	78¢	$16	0x49e865…
10-29 17:47:16	Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in December 2026 (ET)?	No	BUY	20	92¢	$18	0xe5acfe…
10-29 17:47:04	Will Trump deport 200-300k people?	No	BUY	0	92¢	$0	0xfb775f…
10-29 17:46:23	Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?	No	SELL	10	96¢	$9	0xff53d4…
10-29 17:45:05	Will Gold (GC) dip to (LOW) $3,500 by end of December?	No	SELL	5	94¢	$5	0x439964…
10-29 17:44:25	Will Zcash dip to $700 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	5	92¢	$5	0xeaba87…
10-29 17:41:53	U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31?	No	SELL	5	97¢	$5	0x8fae24…
10-29 17:41:41	Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?	No	BUY	20	91¢	$18	0xafec68…
10-29 17:40:02	Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	4	93¢	$3	0x966415…
10-29 17:39:50	Any Brazil STF Justice removed by impeachment before 2027?	No	SELL	20	97¢	$19	0xdeaf21…
10-29 17:39:43	U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Argentina" before 2027?	No	BUY	20	88¢	$18	0x1aa1a0…
10-29 17:33:47	Will the Yang-Mills existence and mass gap problem be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI?	No	SELL	20	79¢	$16	0x08e421…
10-29 17:33:32	Will Bad Bunny rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2026?	No	BUY	20	58¢	$12	0xc3ad14…
10-29 17:27:19	Will Susie Wiles leave the Trump administration before 2027?	No	BUY	20	66¢	$13	0x544d14…
10-29 17:26:29	Will Ukraine re-enter Obratne or Temyrivka by December 31?	No	BUY	20	75¢	$15	0xa1b3b2…
10-29 17:20:53	Will the next GPT Terra model (5.7+) debut at a score of at least 1450 by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	20	73¢	$15	0x317b84…
10-29 17:08:52	Will Anduril's valuation hit (LOW) $70B by December 31?	No	SELL	5	97¢	$5	0x902f39…
10-29 17:04:41	Will United Torah Judaism be in the next Israeli government?	No	BUY	20	82¢	$16	0x1277a1…
10-29 17:01:14	Will "Club Kid" be nominated for Best Film Editing at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	BUY	20	90¢	$18	0x1e05c4…
10-29 16:54:35	Will the UK’s 2026 inflation be between 3.0% and 3.4%?	No	BUY	20	69¢	$14	0xaec59a…
10-29 16:46:11	Will Alphabet’s market capitalization be between $3.50T and $4.00T at the end of 2026?	No	SELL	5	75¢	$4	0x5671af…
10-29 16:46:08	Will Alphabet’s market capitalization be between $4.00T and $4.50T at the end of 2026?	No	SELL	19	73¢	$14	0x30a435…
10-29 16:41:08	Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.75% or higher before 2027?	No	SELL	5	97¢	$5	0xec1eff…
10-29 16:38:46	Will Solana hit $60 or $140 first?	$140	BUY	20	58¢	$12	0x2d5dfd…
10-29 16:27:58	Will "Behemoth!" be nominated for Best Original Score at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	SELL	20	72¢	$14	0x011795…
10-29 16:25:34	Will Susie Wiles leave the Trump administration before 2027?	No	SELL	6	68¢	$4	0x133401…
10-29 15:23:04	Will Yair Lapid be the next Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs?	No	BUY	20	79¢	$16	0x04bb50…
10-29 15:20:05	Will Bitcoin have the best performance in 2026?	No	BUY	5	84¢	$4	0xf60589…
10-29 15:19:56	Will Bitcoin have the best performance in 2026?	No	BUY	5	84¢	$4	0x766c96…
10-29 15:19:38	Will Bitcoin have the best performance in 2026?	No	BUY	5	84¢	$4	0x9e576b…
10-29 15:16:44	Trump declares election interference national emergency by December 31?	No	SELL	5	79¢	$4	0x9d17bb…
10-29 15:10:31	Will the next governing coalition of Sweden include S + MP?	No	SELL	5	84¢	$4	0xec632a…
10-29 15:09:11	Will the next governing coalition of Sweden include M + KD + L?	No	SELL	20	91¢	$18	0x611f2a…
10-29 14:52:22	Will the Yang-Mills existence and mass gap problem be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI?	No	BUY	20	77¢	$15	0xa9515c…
10-29 14:51:14	Will the lowest 2026 Great Salt Lake elevation be below 4,189.3 ft?	No	SELL	5	94¢	$5	0x50d3b4…
10-29 13:56:47	Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.70% before 2027?	No	BUY	9	79¢	$7	0xe315f4…
10-29 13:51:10	Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.80% before 2027?	No	BUY	17	86¢	$15	0x3a1ce4…
10-29 13:44:29	Will the Ornn H200 Index hit $3.00 (LOW) by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	19	88¢	$16	0xea296f…
10-29 13:43:49	Next Israeli government formed by November 30, 2026?	No	SELL	11	91¢	$10	0x11504f…
10-29 13:36:05	Will Alphabet’s market capitalization be between $4.00T and $4.50T at the end of 2026?	No	BUY	20	72¢	$14	0xa1fdd3…
10-29 13:26:01	Will no next Israeli Minister of Justice be appointed by February 28, 2027?	No	SELL	20	61¢	$12	0x058d40…
10-29 13:07:16	Will the next governing coalition of Sweden include M + KD + L?	No	BUY	20	87¢	$17	0xdb9086…
10-29 12:56:56	Will Russia enter Khatnie by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	20	78¢	$16	0xe2920b…
10-29 12:49:22	Josh O'Connor announced as next James Bond?	No	SELL	20	86¢	$17	0x35c9cf…
10-29 12:43:38	Will "The Adventures of Cliff Booth" be nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	BUY	20	85¢	$17	0x579aaa…
10-29 12:20:37	Will Donald Trump visit Japan in 2026?	No	SELL	10	84¢	$8	0xaa6f93…
10-29 12:05:41	Sweden snap election called in 2026?	No	BUY	20	82¢	$16	0xc3c763…
10-29 10:59:38	Will Donald Trump visit Japan in 2026?	No	BUY	10	80¢	$8	0xf217c0…
10-29 10:50:31	Will Seoul have 85mm or more of precipitation in October?	No	SELL	11	99¢	$11	0x437774…
10-29 10:41:52	Will Jumper's FDV be greater than $300M one day after launch?	No	SELL	2	90¢	$2	0x764da4…
10-29 10:04:01	Will Bruno Retailleau be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	20	59¢	$12	0xc29e4d…
10-29 09:44:13	Will the Ornn H200 Index hit $3.00 (LOW) by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	19	86¢	$16	0xc2d13b…
10-29 09:11:37	Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	No	BUY	20	72¢	$14	0x4d6a21…
10-29 08:31:10	Next Israeli government formed by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	11	90¢	$10	0x0c7681…
10-29 08:30:41	Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by December 31?	No	BUY	20	81¢	$16	0x56059c…