Realized P&L
+$190.4K
Unrealized P&L
+$913
Hit rate
64.4%
Resolved
823
Trades
72,852
lifetime
Volume
$16.3M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$224
Open exposure
$111.0K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-23
last 10-24 18:57
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 181 days
Categories
Politics
78% 45% +$171,003
Other
22% 46% +$19,410
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
64 active days in 12wk • peak 52 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No +53,050 $20,982 88¢ $46.9K +$25,967 08-30 19:54
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? Yes +11,000 $7,850 92¢ $10.2K +$2,325 10-22 00:33
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? No +9,350 $4,188 96¢ $9.0K +$4,835 10-16 15:43
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes +52,570 $18,358 12¢ $6.0K -$12,313 08-30 19:48
US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms? No +43,318 $13,111 12¢ $5.4K -$7,696 10-24 18:57
Will Dilution of Iranian Uranium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? No +4,987 $4,297 88¢ $4.4K +$66 09-29 00:16
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? No +5,899 $2,774 63¢ $3.7K +$963 10-08 03:35
Will a ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? No +3,545 $2,983 86¢ $3.1K +$83 09-29 00:16
Will any Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? No +3,236 $2,672 86¢ $2.8K +$95 09-22 18:26
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? Yes +76,340 $10,857 4¢ $2.7K -$8,185 10-24 18:54
us announces end of iranian blockade by march 31 2027 No +6,352 $2,283 40¢ $2.5K +$226 10-14 22:26
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No +2,762 $1,713 82¢ $2.3K +$538 07-23 00:03
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? Yes +1,900 $1,368 94¢ $1.8K +$408 09-05 18:14
Iran leadership change by December 31? No +2,000 $1,320 86¢ $1.7K +$400 10-21 19:38
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? No +16,412 $4,127 8¢ $1.2K -$2,896 10-24 00:35
Will a 1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? No +1,300 $1,060 90¢ $1.2K +$104 09-29 02:59
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31? No +1,000 $1,030 92¢ $915 -$115 10-21 21:02
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? No +2,118 $709 42¢ $900 +$191 09-26 00:40
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October? No +1,800 $324 48¢ $855 +$531 10-23 22:58
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28? No +17,207 $3,179 4¢ $602 -$2,577 10-24 00:33
Will a US-Iran deal in 2026 include Surrender of Iranian Enriched Uranium? Yes +7,000 $420 8¢ $595 +$175 10-19 12:10
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? No +7,529 $1,369 6¢ $489 -$880 10-21 21:00
Will Iran Reconstruction Funding be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? Yes +6,000 $1,140 6¢ $390 -$750 09-22 23:52
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? No +328 $635 94¢ $310 -$324 05-24 04:10
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No -324 -$288 94¢ $-303 -$15 06-15 01:59
Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31? No +277 $223 92¢ $256 +$33 06-16 04:16
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? Yes +1,379 $138 12¢ $169 +$31 07-07 23:22
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30? Yes +3,000 $390 6¢ $165 -$225 09-27 15:16
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? Yes +2,000 $180 6¢ $110 -$70 10-19 12:28
US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? Yes +300 $102 30¢ $88 -$14 10-08 03:36