Incomplete-Buggy — Polymarket

Realized P&L (90d)

-$52

Unrealized P&L

-$171

Hit rate

11.9%

Resolved (90d)

Trades (90d)

234 lifetime

Volume (90d)

$823

$13.1K lifetime

Avg / trade

$56

Open exposure

$67

5 positions

First seen

2026-01-15

last 11-05 16:26

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 65 days

Categories

Politics

75% 28% +$830

Other

15% 17% -$129

Sports

10% 11% -$571

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

7 active days in 12wk • peak 5 trades/day

Open positions (5) Resolved markets (25) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	+455	$105	6¢	$30	-$75	11-03 21:37
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	+205	$0	5¢	$11	+$11	11-03 21:38
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	+369	$73	3¢	$11	-$62	10-02 09:56
Will Trump and Putin not meet?	Yes	+180	$50	6¢	$11	-$39	09-25 12:34
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?	Yes	+309	$10	1¢	$4	-$6	11-05 16:24

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?	3	$1.7K	1,140	1,140	+0	No	+$374	04-23 02:39
Israeli forces cross the Litani River again by May 31?	6	$1.1K	1,206	1,206	+0	Yes	+$126	05-29 18:59
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	6	$915	2,772	772	+2,000	Yes	+$627	03-03 16:13
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	4	$755	1,070	1,070	+0	Yes	+$355	04-08 04:34
israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	6	$725	825	825	+0	No	+$65	06-09 20:44
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	6	$673	1,005	1,005	+0	open	—	11-05 16:18
israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	2	$432	566	566	+0	Yes	-$168	04-26 10:07
will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	4	$340	626	626	+0	Yes	+$74	03-08 11:12
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?	2	$329	1,429	1,429	+0	open	—	10-28 03:14
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026?	2	$300	968	0	+968	Yes	-$300	05-28 15:05
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	3	$296	415	415	+0	Yes	+$196	07-17 21:01
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	2	$250	625	625	+0	Yes	+$50	05-23 11:51
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	1	$200	4,000	0	+4,000	No	-$200	06-14 08:22
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26?	1	$200	606	0	+606	No	+$406	05-23 12:02
us strikes iran by january 26 2026 337 214 511	2	$200	714	714	+0	No	$0	01-24 05:34
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	6	$199	592	592	+0	No	-$85	07-19 21:45
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30?	3	$182	516	516	+0	No	+$2	05-28 09:27
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	3	$152	132	132	+0	Yes	+$112	02-28 08:12
will france uk or germany strike iran by march 31 929	3	$131	230	230	+0	No	+$1	03-03 09:49
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	1	$127	586	0	+586	Yes	-$127	09-30 14:33
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?	5	$125	316	316	+0	No	-$15	04-08 06:44
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	2	$124	170	170	+0	open	—	05-23 11:52
will trump say biden during tech signing event on wednesday	2	$122	72	72	+0	Yes	+$22	03-04 22:31
will the kharg island oil terminal be hit by april 15	3	$121	301	301	+0	No	-$95	04-08 06:42
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$110	311	311	+0	No	-$90	07-14 20:37
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	3	$107	492	123	+369	open	—	10-02 09:56
Iran leadership change by December 31?	2	$105	455	0	+455	open	—	11-03 21:37
israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	2	$101	333	333	+0	No	+$1	07-14 16:22
houthi strike on israel by march 15 2026	2	$101	346	346	+0	No	-$99	03-16 09:08
us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	1	$100	1,000	0	+1,000	No	-$100	01-29 07:21

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-05 16:26:04	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7?	No	BUY	429	7¢	$30	0x9b7547…
11-05 16:24:40	US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?	Yes	BUY	309	3¢	$10	0xac7236…
11-05 16:23:01	US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 8, 2026?	No	BUY	200	15¢	$30	0x501c1d…
11-05 16:18:39	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	373	55¢	$206	0x55b46d…
11-03 21:38:46	Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	205	5¢	$10	0xc16f98…
11-03 21:37:46	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	BUY	38	13¢	$5	0x3560cf…
11-03 21:35:22	Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	708	4¢	$27	0xfd9b7b…
11-03 21:34:52	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?	Yes	SELL	222	0¢	$0	0x2c2678…
11-03 21:31:51	Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	38	26¢	$10	0x228b87…
10-28 03:15:15	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	373	27¢	$100	0xacbfad…
10-28 03:14:36	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?	Yes	SELL	1,429	9¢	$129	0x379440…
10-02 09:56:59	Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	708	2¢	$17	0x18c321…
10-02 09:56:20	Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	123	14¢	$17	0xcbfd0d…
09-30 14:33:35	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	No	BUY	586	22¢	$127	0xba1d6a…
09-25 12:34:03	Will Trump and Putin not meet?	Yes	BUY	180	28¢	$50	0x64cfef…
09-25 12:29:48	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?	Yes	BUY	222	9¢	$20	0x29545b…
09-25 12:25:54	will trump say ceasefire during his united nations meetings	Yes	BUY	110	18¢	$20	0x0927fb…
09-15 21:03:01	Israel closes its airspace by September 30?	No	BUY	529	3¢	$15	0x26bba1…
07-30 14:52:33	kharg island no longer under iranian control by december 31 20260730004337418	Yes	BUY	1,429	14¢	$200	0xc6b80c…
07-30 14:44:09	Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	286	7¢	$20	0xfca4ee…
07-30 14:42:56	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	SELL	405	52¢	$211	0x926895…
07-23 22:20:51	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967 454	No	BUY	103	29¢	$30	0xfd8516…
07-19 21:45:06	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	296	7¢	$21	0xc4aec2…
07-19 21:44:16	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	130	6¢	$7	0x3c0724…
07-17 21:01:58	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	415	59¢	$246	0x70f579…
07-16 10:18:13	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	144	42¢	$60	0xeeeec4…
07-14 20:50:53	Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	235	25¢	$59	0x2d0e38…
07-14 20:37:08	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	311	3¢	$10	0xb4809e…
07-14 16:23:43	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	282	17¢	$49	0x438897…
07-14 16:22:05	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	Yes	SELL	333	15¢	$51	0xd5edb9…
07-14 16:20:26	Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	19	5¢	$1	0xb0e015…
07-14 16:19:23	Will Jude Bellingham be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	414	4¢	$15	0xe9135b…
07-14 16:19:08	Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	1,000	1¢	$10	0xece136…
07-14 16:18:28	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	166	17¢	$29	0xe0e7b6…
07-14 16:17:02	Will Jude Bellingham be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	274	4¢	$10	0x6867c9…
07-14 16:15:58	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	111	9¢	$10	0x0da463…
07-08 17:56:38	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	166	19¢	$32	0x56b85f…
07-07 22:57:43	Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	424	6¢	$25	0x2284a3…
07-04 08:47:32	Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	1,250	1¢	$10	0x601dc7…
07-04 08:47:11	Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	400	5¢	$20	0x104381…
07-03 21:44:56	Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-07-03?	Yes	BUY	303	3¢	$10	0xc71af5…
07-01 22:45:34	Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	1,250	2¢	$30	0xccaa30…
07-01 22:32:01	Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	769	3¢	$20	0xf8d123…
07-01 22:31:31	Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	345	6¢	$20	0x9f4654…
07-01 22:30:23	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	291	10¢	$30	0x2eca19…
07-01 22:29:23	Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	455	7¢	$30	0x539e4b…
07-01 22:28:43	Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	1,220	8¢	$100	0x757cd9…
06-30 22:59:37	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	50	80¢	$40	0x84af0f…
06-30 22:56:50	Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	588	3¢	$20	0x80420c…
06-30 22:55:26	Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	357	3¢	$10	0x3147c3…
06-30 22:54:34	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	311	32¢	$100	0x665725…
06-30 06:37:13	Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	232	0¢	$0	0xd9ac6d…
06-25 16:47:26	Netanyahu drops out of Israel election by July 31?	Yes	SELL	510	3¢	$17	0x3bb133…
06-21 14:45:59	israel closes its airspace by july 31	Yes	BUY	333	15¢	$50	0x602dec…
06-18 15:14:08	Iran leadership change by June 30?	Yes	SELL	904	1¢	$11	0x4c7467…
06-15 14:48:16	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	606	3¢	$20	0x1b3bc2…
06-14 08:22:27	Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	4,000	5¢	$200	0x53ce89…
06-12 09:55:12	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	BUY	417	24¢	$100	0xdc7a5d…
06-11 17:33:49	Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	59	17¢	$10	0x538066…
06-09 21:56:34	Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	71	14¢	$10	0x3e6eaa…
06-09 21:56:13	Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	176	17¢	$30	0xc20dc3…
06-09 21:55:46	Will Raphinha be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	263	4¢	$10	0x59d38d…
06-09 21:55:36	Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	273	4¢	$10	0x6e8cb7…
06-09 21:55:28	Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	400	2¢	$10	0xab40e8…
06-09 20:48:09	Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by June 30?	Yes	BUY	173	6¢	$10	0x23d2b0…
06-09 20:47:01	Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	80	10¢	$8	0x4c59bc…
06-09 20:46:27	Joseph Aoun out as President of Lebanon by December 31?	Yes	SELL	118	10¢	$11	0xb84a60…
06-09 20:44:36	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	SELL	231	18¢	$42	0x2e82dc…
06-09 20:43:39	Netanyahu drops out of Israel election by July 31?	Yes	BUY	182	11¢	$20	0x935777…
06-08 16:48:06	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	BUY	231	13¢	$30	0xa70a0f…
06-07 20:03:48	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	No	SELL	303	53¢	$162	0x0d6678…
06-07 19:29:04	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	No	BUY	303	33¢	$100	0x09a880…
06-07 19:28:52	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	SELL	291	66¢	$192	0xf472fa…
06-07 19:26:03	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	Yes	BUY	291	69¢	$200	0x07fb8b…
06-03 10:53:14	Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by June 30?	Yes	BUY	118	17¢	$20	0xd287fe…
06-03 09:27:41	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	111	9¢	$10	0x5e2bc3…
06-03 09:26:56	Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	351	6¢	$20	0xade372…
06-03 09:26:45	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	124	16¢	$20	0xad53c7…
06-03 09:26:26	Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	312	10¢	$30	0xffab85…
06-03 09:25:04	Netanyahu drops out of Israel election by July 31?	Yes	BUY	42	12¢	$5	0x00d90b…
06-01 20:33:16	Iran leadership change by June 30?	Yes	BUY	500	6¢	$30	0xd6cee5…
05-30 10:12:11	Netanyahu drops out of Israel election by July 31?	Yes	BUY	287	17¢	$50	0x2d81ff…
05-30 09:58:11	Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	152	13¢	$20	0xbc72bd…
05-30 09:57:40	Joseph Aoun out as President of Lebanon by December 31?	Yes	BUY	118	17¢	$20	0x405f53…
05-30 07:45:32	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	405	25¢	$100	0x8aa68d…
05-29 18:59:39	Israeli forces cross the Litani River again by May 31?	Yes	SELL	208	97¢	$203	0x83aa8c…
05-29 14:21:08	Israeli forces cross the Litani River again by May 31?	Yes	BUY	208	48¢	$100	0x4d3081…
05-29 14:00:20	Israeli forces cross the Litani River again by May 31?	No	SELL	998	39¢	$387	0x5d99a2…
05-28 15:05:11	Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	739	27¢	$200	0xa6bb07…
05-28 14:09:11	Israeli forces cross the Litani River again by May 31?	No	BUY	365	27¢	$100	0x3da387…
05-28 09:27:12	Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30?	Yes	SELL	516	18¢	$92	0xf5d664…
05-27 15:00:06	Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	229	44¢	$100	0xb52b5b…
05-27 09:36:47	Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30?	Yes	BUY	284	11¢	$30	0x70ab6b…
05-26 19:38:00	Israeli forces cross the Litani River again by May 31?	No	BUY	449	45¢	$200	0xbe78c0…
05-26 19:36:24	Israeli forces cross the Litani River again by May 31?	No	BUY	185	34¢	$64	0x19f3e1…
05-24 06:20:07	US x Iran permanent peace deal before ceasefire ends?	No	BUY	357	28¢	$100	0xe7196b…
05-23 12:02:03	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26?	No	BUY	606	33¢	$200	0xa6aec7…
05-23 11:53:42	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	Yes	SELL	333	4¢	$14	0xf87805…
05-23 11:52:29	Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	No	SELL	170	38¢	$64	0x999c52…
05-23 11:51:34	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	No	SELL	625	24¢	$150	0x49152d…