Will any xAI Grok model score at least 40% on the FrontierMath Exam?
open
Total volume
$740
Trades
67
Unique wallets
33
Liquidity
$529
Latest YES mid
100¢
Latest NO mid
0¢
End date
2026-02-28
First seen
2026-06-13
last 07-01 03:40
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
SMI:
+11.9¢
(top1%: 100% YES on $547
vs crowd: 88% YES on $692)
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 4 | $564 | $61 | +$502 |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 1 | — | — | +— |
| 🐟 Fish | 5 | — | $16 | $16 |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 23 | $46 | $5 | +$41 |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🎯 Top 1% | 1 | $547 | — | +$547 |
| 🏆 Top 5% | 3 | $17 | $11 | +$6 |
| ✅ Top 10% | 2 | — | $4 | $4 |
| Median | 1 | $1 | — | +$1 |
| Below median | 1 | — | $0 | $0 |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 1 | — | $12 | $12 |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 2 | — | $1 | $1 |
| 💀 Bottom 1% | 1 | — | $49 | $49 |
| unranked | 21 | $45 | $5 | +$40 |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Purple-Fruit 0x97ea…3363 | Yes | +564 | $547 | $547 | 3 | 06-24 10:05 |
| Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | +305 | $5 | $14 | 4 | 06-27 20:21 |
| Quarterly-Everyone 0x923c…fa1d | No | +98 | $1 | $1 | 9 | 06-24 10:05 |
| Gullible-Grassland 0x72a2…7b65 | No | +71 | $49 | $49 | 1 | 06-18 20:47 |
| Sunny-Hype 0x4247…455f | No | +66 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 06-19 15:15 |
| Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | +56 | $17 | $17 | 2 | 06-18 20:47 |
| (anonymous) 0xbe0e…d429 | No | +35 | $1 | $1 | 2 | 06-19 15:15 |
| Cool-Storyboard 0x3329…43a6 | No | +26 | $0 | $0 | 18 | 06-29 08:10 |
| Stable-Continuity 0xde8e…6900 | No | +19 | $5 | $5 | 2 | 06-19 15:15 |
| Writhing-Retention 0xeab7…b389 | No | +15 | $0 | $0 | 2 | 06-29 04:30 |
| Immaculate-President 0x3082…9446 | No | +14 | $-3 | $27 | 3 | 07-01 03:40 |
| Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | +5 | $-1 | $5 | 3 | 07-01 03:40 |
| (anonymous) 0xd2ff…f245 | No | +5 | $0 | $0 | 1 | 06-27 20:21 |
| (anonymous) 0x3a43…67dc | No | +5 | $0 | $0 | 1 | 06-24 10:05 |
| (anonymous) 0xd1c8…9270 | Yes | +2 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 06-29 08:06 |
| (anonymous) 0x63bb…705f | Yes | +2 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 06-29 08:09 |
| (anonymous) 0xda7a…414a | Yes | +2 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 06-29 08:10 |
| Enchanting-Impulse 0x8639…86cf | Yes | +2 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 06-29 08:10 |
| Spanish-Millet 0xe0be…8dd9 | Yes | +2 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 06-29 08:10 |
| Near-Heroine 0x584f…6acd | Yes | +2 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 06-29 08:07 |
| (anonymous) 0x3bb6…50bc | Yes | +2 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 06-29 08:10 |
| (anonymous) 0x6b89…eb06 | Yes | +2 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 06-29 08:07 |
| (anonymous) 0x931a…ebc3 | Yes | +2 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 06-29 08:07 |
| (anonymous) 0x7c47…ad36 | Yes | +1 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 06-29 08:07 |
| Pure-Citron 0xedee…ea11 | Yes | +1 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 06-29 08:07 |
| (anonymous) 0x4451…ffe1 | Yes | +1 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 06-29 08:06 |
| (anonymous) 0x6d83…3c6f | Yes | +1 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 06-29 08:10 |
| Assured-Folk 0xc104…2db4 | Yes | +1 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 06-29 08:09 |
| Verifiable-Moth 0x6be8…1c45 | Yes | +1 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 06-29 08:10 |
| (anonymous) 0xbb3f…cde8 | Yes | +1 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 06-29 08:07 |
| Awful-Dynamo 0xb0ee…ef7a | Yes | +1 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 06-29 08:10 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-01 03:40:53 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | SELL | 14 | 11¢ | $2 | 0x70af0d… |
| 07-01 03:40:53 | Immaculate-President 0x3082…9446 | No | BUY | 14 | 11¢ | $2 | 0x70af0d… |
| 06-29 08:10:40 | Cool-Storyboard 0x3329…43a6 | No | BUY | 2 | 0¢ | $0 | 0xc1f8fc… |
| 06-29 08:10:40 | (anonymous) 0xda7a…414a | Yes | BUY | 2 | 100¢ | $2 | 0xc1f8fc… |
| 06-29 08:10:40 | Cool-Storyboard 0x3329…43a6 | No | BUY | 2 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x34d65f… |
| 06-29 08:10:40 | Spanish-Millet 0xe0be…8dd9 | Yes | BUY | 2 | 100¢ | $2 | 0x34d65f… |
| 06-29 08:10:38 | Cool-Storyboard 0x3329…43a6 | No | BUY | 1 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x209546… |
| 06-29 08:10:38 | (anonymous) 0x6d83…3c6f | Yes | BUY | 1 | 100¢ | $1 | 0x209546… |
| 06-29 08:10:38 | Verifiable-Moth 0x6be8…1c45 | Yes | BUY | 1 | 100¢ | $1 | 0xd3fdd8… |
| 06-29 08:10:38 | Cool-Storyboard 0x3329…43a6 | No | BUY | 1 | 0¢ | $0 | 0xd3fdd8… |
| 06-29 08:10:01 | Cool-Storyboard 0x3329…43a6 | No | BUY | 2 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x08e607… |
| 06-29 08:10:01 | Awful-Dynamo 0xb0ee…ef7a | Yes | BUY | 1 | 100¢ | $1 | 0x0d5753… |
| 06-29 08:10:01 | Cool-Storyboard 0x3329…43a6 | No | BUY | 1 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x0d5753… |
| 06-29 08:10:01 | (anonymous) 0x3bb6…50bc | Yes | BUY | 2 | 100¢ | $2 | 0xe551ce… |
| 06-29 08:10:01 | Cool-Storyboard 0x3329…43a6 | No | BUY | 2 | 0¢ | $0 | 0xe551ce… |
| 06-29 08:10:01 | Enchanting-Impulse 0x8639…86cf | Yes | BUY | 2 | 100¢ | $2 | 0x08e607… |
| 06-29 08:09:59 | Cool-Storyboard 0x3329…43a6 | No | BUY | 1 | 0¢ | $0 | 0xda604f… |
| 06-29 08:09:59 | Assured-Folk 0xc104…2db4 | Yes | BUY | 1 | 100¢ | $1 | 0xda604f… |
| 06-29 08:09:01 | Cool-Storyboard 0x3329…43a6 | No | BUY | 2 | 0¢ | $0 | 0xdd4974… |
| 06-29 08:09:01 | (anonymous) 0x63bb…705f | Yes | BUY | 2 | 100¢ | $2 | 0xdd4974… |
| 06-29 08:07:47 | Cool-Storyboard 0x3329…43a6 | No | BUY | 2 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x42ed0b… |
| 06-29 08:07:47 | Near-Heroine 0x584f…6acd | Yes | BUY | 2 | 100¢ | $2 | 0x42ed0b… |
| 06-29 08:07:46 | (anonymous) 0x931a…ebc3 | Yes | BUY | 2 | 100¢ | $2 | 0xe36fcf… |
| 06-29 08:07:46 | Cool-Storyboard 0x3329…43a6 | No | BUY | 2 | 0¢ | $0 | 0xe36fcf… |
| 06-29 08:07:46 | Cool-Storyboard 0x3329…43a6 | No | BUY | 1 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x77c823… |
| 06-29 08:07:46 | (anonymous) 0x6b89…eb06 | Yes | BUY | 2 | 100¢ | $2 | 0x62375a… |
| 06-29 08:07:46 | Cool-Storyboard 0x3329…43a6 | No | BUY | 2 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x62375a… |
| 06-29 08:07:46 | (anonymous) 0xbb3f…cde8 | Yes | BUY | 1 | 100¢ | $1 | 0x77c823… |
| 06-29 08:07:07 | Cool-Storyboard 0x3329…43a6 | No | BUY | 1 | 0¢ | $0 | 0xf02dc5… |
| 06-29 08:07:07 | Cool-Storyboard 0x3329…43a6 | No | BUY | 1 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x3329e9… |
| 06-29 08:07:07 | Pure-Citron 0xedee…ea11 | Yes | BUY | 1 | 100¢ | $1 | 0xf02dc5… |
| 06-29 08:07:07 | (anonymous) 0x7c47…ad36 | Yes | BUY | 1 | 100¢ | $1 | 0x3329e9… |
| 06-29 08:06:41 | Cool-Storyboard 0x3329…43a6 | No | BUY | 2 | 0¢ | $0 | 0xedaf8d… |
| 06-29 08:06:41 | (anonymous) 0xd1c8…9270 | Yes | BUY | 2 | 100¢ | $2 | 0xedaf8d… |
| 06-29 08:06:40 | Cool-Storyboard 0x3329…43a6 | No | BUY | 1 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x169fff… |
| 06-29 08:06:40 | (anonymous) 0x4451…ffe1 | Yes | BUY | 1 | 100¢ | $1 | 0x169fff… |
| 06-29 07:30:23 | (anonymous) 0x31d9…bb17 | Yes | SELL | 10 | 87¢ | $9 | 0x100084… |
| 06-29 07:30:23 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | SELL | 10 | 13¢ | $1 | 0x100084… |
| 06-29 04:30:58 | (anonymous) 0x31d9…bb17 | Yes | BUY | 10 | 100¢ | $10 | 0xce8c57… |
| 06-29 04:30:58 | Writhing-Retention 0xeab7…b389 | No | BUY | 9 | 0¢ | $0 | 0xce8c57… |
| 06-29 04:30:58 | Cool-Storyboard 0x3329…43a6 | No | BUY | 1 | 0¢ | $0 | 0xce8c57… |
| 06-27 20:21:40 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | SELL | 11 | 42¢ | $5 | 0x7663f0… |
| 06-27 20:21:40 | (anonymous) 0x7ae1…9308 | Yes | SELL | 11 | 58¢ | $6 | 0x7663f0… |
| 06-27 20:21:07 | (anonymous) 0x7ae1…9308 | Yes | BUY | 11 | 100¢ | $11 | 0xfd0cec… |
| 06-27 20:21:07 | Writhing-Retention 0xeab7…b389 | No | BUY | 6 | 0¢ | $0 | 0xfd0cec… |
| 06-27 20:21:07 | (anonymous) 0xd2ff…f245 | No | BUY | 5 | 0¢ | $0 | 0xfd0cec… |
| 06-24 10:05:22 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 167 | 1¢ | $1 | 0xfa3241… |
| 06-24 10:05:22 | Purple-Fruit 0x97ea…3363 | Yes | BUY | 255 | 100¢ | $254 | 0xfa3241… |
| 06-24 10:05:22 | Quarterly-Everyone 0x923c…fa1d | No | BUY | 24 | 0¢ | $0 | 0xfa3241… |
| 06-24 10:05:22 | (anonymous) 0x3a43…67dc | No | BUY | 5 | 0¢ | $0 | 0xfa3241… |
| 06-19 15:15:44 | Purple-Fruit 0x97ea…3363 | Yes | BUY | 129 | 96¢ | $125 | 0x0022a0… |
| 06-19 15:15:44 | Quarterly-Everyone 0x923c…fa1d | No | BUY | 7 | 4¢ | $0 | 0x0022a0… |
| 06-19 15:15:44 | Sunny-Hype 0x4247…455f | No | BUY | 66 | 3¢ | $2 | 0x0022a0… |
| 06-19 15:15:44 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 22 | 6¢ | $1 | 0x0022a0… |
| 06-19 15:15:44 | (anonymous) 0xbe0e…d429 | No | BUY | 25 | 2¢ | $0 | 0x0022a0… |
| 06-19 15:15:11 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | No | BUY | 30 | 7¢ | $2 | 0x4eaf06… |
| 06-19 15:15:11 | Stable-Continuity 0xde8e…6900 | No | BUY | 13 | 7¢ | $1 | 0x4eaf06… |
| 06-19 15:15:11 | Quarterly-Everyone 0x923c…fa1d | No | BUY | 8 | 6¢ | $0 | 0x4eaf06… |
| 06-19 15:15:11 | Purple-Fruit 0x97ea…3363 | Yes | BUY | 179 | 94¢ | $168 | 0x4eaf06… |
| 06-19 15:15:11 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 128 | 6¢ | $8 | 0x4eaf06… |
| 06-18 20:47:20 | Immaculate-President 0x3082…9446 | No | SELL | 21 | 71¢ | $15 | 0x31df3a… |
| 06-18 20:47:20 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 50 | 31¢ | $15 | 0x31df3a… |
| 06-18 20:47:20 | Gullible-Grassland 0x72a2…7b65 | No | BUY | 71 | 70¢ | $49 | 0x31df3a… |
| 06-18 20:46:17 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 6 | 31¢ | $2 | 0x4df32a… |
| 06-18 20:46:17 | Stable-Continuity 0xde8e…6900 | No | BUY | 6 | 69¢ | $4 | 0x4df32a… |
| 06-13 04:15:34 | Untimely-Mood 0x0711…f03c | No | SELL | 21 | 48¢ | $10 | 0x0d29f2… |
| 06-13 04:15:34 | Immaculate-President 0x3082…9446 | No | BUY | 21 | 48¢ | $10 | 0x0d29f2… |