Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 5.25% or higher before 2027?
open
Total volume
$941
Trades
145
Unique wallets
41
Liquidity
$2,807
Latest YES mid
3¢
Latest NO mid
97¢
End date
2026-12-31
First seen
2026-05-29
last 07-21 05:48
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 2 | — | $1 | $1 |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 7 | $11 | $1 | +$10 |
| 🐟 Fish | 1 | — | — | +— |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 31 | $10 | $418 | $408 |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🏆 Top 5% | 2 | — | — | +— |
| ✅ Top 10% | 2 | — | — | +— |
| Median | 8 | $10 | $50 | $40 |
| Below median | 3 | — | — | +— |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 3 | $1 | $1 | $0 |
| unranked | 23 | $10 | $369 | $359 |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grizzled-Strudel 0xb980…73b0 | Yes | +371 | $10 | $10 | 4 | 06-29 10:16 |
| (anonymous) 0xf518…31d5 | Yes | +114 | $5 | $5 | 23 | 06-04 17:13 |
| Front-Decadence 0xe031…d12d | No | +69 | $67 | $67 | 2 | 06-20 14:00 |
| (anonymous) 0xba1b…6e84 | No | +58 | $56 | $56 | 2 | 06-18 20:17 |
| (anonymous) 0x18ca…f8e9 | No | +55 | $53 | $53 | 2 | 06-29 20:06 |
| (anonymous) 0x898c…716d | No | +50 | $49 | $49 | 1 | 06-29 10:16 |
| Utilized-Merchandise 0x03d6…873e | No | +47 | $45 | $116 | 23 | 06-04 17:13 |
| Naive-Cockroach 0xac10…bf99 | No | +43 | $41 | $43 | 17 | 06-04 17:13 |
| (anonymous) 0xb959…2755 | No | +18 | $18 | $18 | 1 | 06-09 10:50 |
| (anonymous) 0xd2e0…b062 | No | +18 | $17 | $17 | 3 | 06-29 20:06 |
| (anonymous) 0x624b…56f8 | Yes | +5 | $0 | $0 | 3 | 07-11 02:03 |
| (anonymous) 0x5bec…fa17 | No | +5 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 07-08 09:45 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-21 05:48:37 | (anonymous) 0xc537…88a2 | Yes | SELL | 7 | 3¢ | $0 | 0x7fa23c… |
| 07-21 05:48:37 | (anonymous) 0xd193…4b3d | No | SELL | 7 | 97¢ | $7 | 0x7fa23c… |
| 07-13 07:49:35 | (anonymous) 0xd193…4b3d | No | SELL | 15 | 97¢ | $15 | 0x34d976… |
| 07-13 07:49:35 | Potable-Hummus 0x8031…5565 | No | SELL | 18 | 97¢ | $18 | 0x34d976… |
| 07-13 07:49:35 | Trained-Scooter 0x6e1a…971e | Yes | SELL | 33 | 3¢ | $1 | 0x34d976… |
| 07-11 14:33:37 | (anonymous) 0xaa35…82a1 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 3¢ | $0 | 0xa5e27f… |
| 07-11 14:33:37 | Potable-Hummus 0x8031…5565 | No | SELL | 5 | 97¢ | $5 | 0xa5e27f… |
| 07-11 02:03:53 | (anonymous) 0x9474…5091 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 3¢ | $0 | 0x98b5b9… |
| 07-11 02:03:53 | (anonymous) 0x1f6a…15c0 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 3¢ | $0 | 0x98b5b9… |
| 07-11 02:03:37 | (anonymous) 0x624b…56f8 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 3¢ | $0 | 0xc6ff67… |
| 07-11 02:03:37 | (anonymous) 0x1f6a…15c0 | No | SELL | 5 | 97¢ | $5 | 0xc6ff67… |
| 07-08 09:45:59 | (anonymous) 0x5bec…fa17 | No | BUY | 5 | 97¢ | $5 | 0xadd383… |
| 07-08 09:45:59 | (anonymous) 0x624b…56f8 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 3¢ | $0 | 0xadd383… |
| 07-05 15:30:44 | (anonymous) 0xa3ed…c0d7 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 3¢ | $0 | 0x7ed68f… |
| 07-05 15:30:44 | (anonymous) 0x624b…56f8 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 3¢ | $0 | 0x7ed68f… |
| 06-29 20:06:32 | (anonymous) 0xd52a…c011 | Yes | SELL | 67 | 3¢ | $2 | 0x88c5a5… |
| 06-29 20:06:32 | Potable-Hummus 0x8031…5565 | No | SELL | 8 | 97¢ | $8 | 0x88c5a5… |
| 06-29 20:06:32 | (anonymous) 0xe4e1…b244 | No | SELL | 59 | 97¢ | $58 | 0x88c5a5… |
| 06-29 20:06:04 | (anonymous) 0xd2e0…b062 | No | BUY | 8 | 97¢ | $8 | 0x073fd0… |
| 06-29 20:06:04 | (anonymous) 0x9474…5091 | Yes | SELL | 10 | 3¢ | $0 | 0x073fd0… |
| 06-29 20:06:04 | (anonymous) 0x18ca…f8e9 | No | BUY | 49 | 97¢ | $47 | 0x073fd0… |
| 06-29 20:06:04 | (anonymous) 0xd52a…c011 | Yes | BUY | 67 | 3¢ | $2 | 0x073fd0… |
| 06-29 10:16:05 | (anonymous) 0x898c…716d | No | BUY | 50 | 97¢ | $49 | 0x4b6145… |
| 06-29 10:16:05 | Grizzled-Strudel 0xb980…73b0 | Yes | BUY | 56 | 3¢ | $2 | 0x4b6145… |
| 06-29 10:16:05 | (anonymous) 0x18ca…f8e9 | No | BUY | 6 | 97¢ | $6 | 0x4b6145… |
| 06-25 14:53:50 | (anonymous) 0xd2e0…b062 | No | BUY | 4 | 97¢ | $4 | 0xf2419d… |
| 06-25 14:53:50 | Shiny-Lie 0x9cb3…1367 | No | SELL | 4 | 97¢ | $4 | 0xf2419d… |
| 06-24 23:45:55 | (anonymous) 0xd2e0…b062 | No | BUY | 5 | 97¢ | $5 | 0x2da6e9… |
| 06-24 23:45:55 | (anonymous) 0xa3ed…c0d7 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 3¢ | $0 | 0x2da6e9… |
| 06-21 04:33:55 | Double-Valley 0xec82…6eaa | Yes | SELL | 1 | 3¢ | $0 | 0x773e2b… |
| 06-21 04:33:55 | Wilted-Employ 0x1a96…9797 | No | SELL | 1 | 97¢ | $1 | 0x773e2b… |
| 06-21 04:33:13 | Wilted-Employ 0x1a96…9797 | No | BUY | 1 | 97¢ | $1 | 0xe6e597… |
| 06-21 04:33:13 | (anonymous) 0xe4e1…b244 | No | SELL | 1 | 97¢ | $1 | 0xe6e597… |
| 06-20 14:00:41 | Grizzled-Strudel 0xb980…73b0 | Yes | BUY | 194 | 3¢ | $5 | 0xddb903… |
| 06-20 14:00:41 | (anonymous) 0x9474…5091 | Yes | SELL | 190 | 3¢ | $5 | 0xddb903… |
| 06-20 14:00:41 | Front-Decadence 0xe031…d12d | No | BUY | 4 | 97¢ | $4 | 0xddb903… |
| 06-19 05:25:52 | Grizzled-Strudel 0xb980…73b0 | Yes | BUY | 65 | 3¢ | $2 | 0x6064d0… |
| 06-19 05:25:52 | Front-Decadence 0xe031…d12d | No | BUY | 65 | 97¢ | $63 | 0x6064d0… |
| 06-19 02:44:22 | Mediocre-Reform 0x156b…0f5b | No | SELL | 1 | 97¢ | $1 | 0x9d8ab6… |
| 06-19 02:44:22 | Double-Valley 0xec82…6eaa | Yes | SELL | 1 | 3¢ | $0 | 0x9d8ab6… |
| 06-19 02:43:41 | (anonymous) 0xe4e1…b244 | No | SELL | 1 | 97¢ | $1 | 0x752664… |
| 06-19 02:43:41 | Mediocre-Reform 0x156b…0f5b | No | BUY | 1 | 97¢ | $1 | 0x752664… |
| 06-18 20:17:10 | Motherly-Trend 0xc3e8…f3dd | No | SELL | 5 | 97¢ | $5 | 0x6512e2… |
| 06-18 20:17:10 | Double-Valley 0xec82…6eaa | Yes | SELL | 2 | 3¢ | $0 | 0x6512e2… |
| 06-18 20:17:10 | (anonymous) 0xba1b…6e84 | No | BUY | 3 | 97¢ | $3 | 0x6512e2… |
| 06-18 15:27:26 | Grizzled-Strudel 0xb980…73b0 | Yes | BUY | 55 | 3¢ | $1 | 0x720b13… |
| 06-18 15:27:26 | (anonymous) 0xba1b…6e84 | No | BUY | 55 | 97¢ | $53 | 0x720b13… |
| 06-12 07:34:22 | Useless-Smoking 0xf609…e68b | No | SELL | 22 | 97¢ | $21 | 0x8313c9… |
| 06-12 07:34:22 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | Yes | SELL | 22 | 3¢ | $1 | 0x8313c9… |
| 06-09 10:50:00 | (anonymous) 0xb959…2755 | No | BUY | 18 | 97¢ | $18 | 0xde9e00… |
| 06-09 10:50:00 | (anonymous) 0x8ec0…08ec | No | SELL | 11 | 97¢ | $11 | 0xde9e00… |
| 06-09 10:50:00 | (anonymous) 0xe4e1…b244 | No | SELL | 8 | 97¢ | $7 | 0xde9e00… |
| 06-07 19:35:24 | Frequent-Protection 0x41e7…97a8 | Yes | SELL | 22 | 3¢ | $1 | 0xfa6240… |
| 06-07 19:35:24 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | Yes | BUY | 22 | 3¢ | $1 | 0xfa6240… |
| 06-06 07:04:55 | Potable-Hummus 0x8031…5565 | No | BUY | 16 | 97¢ | $16 | 0xb16e2e… |
| 06-06 07:04:55 | Zealous-Habit 0xf0ad…7a64 | No | SELL | 16 | 97¢ | $16 | 0xb16e2e… |
| 06-05 14:35:58 | (anonymous) 0xcea9…9b79 | No | SELL | 4 | 97¢ | $4 | 0x1561eb… |
| 06-05 14:35:58 | Potable-Hummus 0x8031…5565 | No | BUY | 4 | 97¢ | $4 | 0x1561eb… |
| 06-05 07:27:25 | Coordinated-Republic 0xe444…9495 | No | SELL | 9 | 97¢ | $9 | 0x75aec3… |
| 06-05 07:27:25 | Potable-Hummus 0x8031…5565 | No | BUY | 9 | 97¢ | $9 | 0x75aec3… |
| 06-04 17:13:52 | (anonymous) 0xf518…31d5 | Yes | BUY | 1 | 4¢ | $0 | 0xd91808… |
| 06-04 17:13:52 | Naive-Cockroach 0xac10…bf99 | No | BUY | 1 | 96¢ | $1 | 0xd91808… |
| 06-04 17:13:45 | (anonymous) 0xf518…31d5 | Yes | BUY | 6 | 4¢ | $0 | 0xf883e7… |
| 06-04 17:13:45 | Utilized-Merchandise 0x03d6…873e | No | BUY | 6 | 96¢ | $6 | 0xf883e7… |
| 06-04 13:24:46 | Naive-Cockroach 0xac10…bf99 | No | BUY | 1 | 96¢ | $1 | 0xd11ab6… |
| 06-04 13:24:46 | (anonymous) 0xf518…31d5 | Yes | BUY | 1 | 4¢ | $0 | 0xd11ab6… |
| 06-04 13:24:40 | (anonymous) 0xf518…31d5 | Yes | BUY | 6 | 4¢ | $0 | 0xeac14c… |
| 06-04 13:24:40 | Utilized-Merchandise 0x03d6…873e | No | BUY | 6 | 96¢ | $6 | 0xeac14c… |
| 06-04 13:24:39 | (anonymous) 0xf518…31d5 | Yes | BUY | 6 | 4¢ | $0 | 0xeb0409… |
| 06-04 13:24:39 | Utilized-Merchandise 0x03d6…873e | No | BUY | 6 | 96¢ | $6 | 0xeb0409… |
| 06-04 09:32:37 | (anonymous) 0xf518…31d5 | Yes | BUY | 1 | 4¢ | $0 | 0x92ad96… |
| 06-04 09:32:37 | Naive-Cockroach 0xac10…bf99 | No | BUY | 1 | 96¢ | $1 | 0x92ad96… |
| 06-04 09:32:31 | Utilized-Merchandise 0x03d6…873e | No | BUY | 6 | 96¢ | $6 | 0xc81fde… |
| 06-04 09:32:31 | (anonymous) 0xf518…31d5 | Yes | BUY | 6 | 4¢ | $0 | 0xc81fde… |
| 06-04 09:32:30 | (anonymous) 0xf518…31d5 | Yes | BUY | 6 | 4¢ | $0 | 0x031040… |
| 06-04 09:32:30 | Utilized-Merchandise 0x03d6…873e | No | BUY | 6 | 96¢ | $6 | 0x031040… |
| 06-03 11:44:16 | Naive-Cockroach 0xac10…bf99 | No | BUY | 1 | 96¢ | $1 | 0xf7afce… |
| 06-03 11:44:16 | (anonymous) 0xf518…31d5 | Yes | BUY | 1 | 4¢ | $0 | 0xf7afce… |
| 06-03 11:44:09 | Utilized-Merchandise 0x03d6…873e | No | BUY | 6 | 96¢ | $6 | 0x428f4c… |
| 06-03 11:44:09 | Utilized-Merchandise 0x03d6…873e | No | SELL | 3 | 96¢ | $3 | 0x495385… |
| 06-03 11:44:09 | Naive-Cockroach 0xac10…bf99 | No | BUY | 3 | 96¢ | $3 | 0x495385… |
| 06-03 11:44:09 | (anonymous) 0xf518…31d5 | Yes | BUY | 6 | 4¢ | $0 | 0x428f4c… |
| 06-03 11:44:08 | Utilized-Merchandise 0x03d6…873e | No | BUY | 6 | 96¢ | $6 | 0xb29672… |
| 06-03 11:44:08 | Utilized-Merchandise 0x03d6…873e | No | SELL | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0x577d2d… |
| 06-03 11:44:08 | Naive-Cockroach 0xac10…bf99 | No | BUY | 5 | 96¢ | $5 | 0x577d2d… |
| 06-03 11:44:08 | (anonymous) 0xf518…31d5 | Yes | BUY | 6 | 4¢ | $0 | 0xb29672… |
| 06-03 11:43:41 | Naive-Cockroach 0xac10…bf99 | No | BUY | 1 | 96¢ | $1 | 0x0e8380… |
| 06-03 11:43:41 | (anonymous) 0xf518…31d5 | Yes | BUY | 1 | 4¢ | $0 | 0x0e8380… |
| 06-03 11:42:37 | Utilized-Merchandise 0x03d6…873e | No | BUY | 6 | 96¢ | $6 | 0x573c5f… |
| 06-03 11:42:37 | (anonymous) 0xf518…31d5 | Yes | BUY | 6 | 4¢ | $0 | 0x573c5f… |
| 06-03 11:42:35 | Naive-Cockroach 0xac10…bf99 | No | BUY | 3 | 96¢ | $3 | 0x259a08… |
| 06-03 11:42:35 | Utilized-Merchandise 0x03d6…873e | No | SELL | 3 | 96¢ | $3 | 0x259a08… |
| 06-03 10:36:36 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | Yes | SELL | 22 | 3¢ | $1 | 0xc4ee07… |
| 06-03 10:36:36 | Frequent-Protection 0x41e7…97a8 | Yes | BUY | 22 | 3¢ | $1 | 0xc4ee07… |
| 06-03 09:59:32 | Naive-Cockroach 0xac10…bf99 | No | BUY | 1 | 96¢ | $1 | 0x0237e5… |
| 06-03 09:59:32 | (anonymous) 0xf518…31d5 | Yes | BUY | 1 | 4¢ | $0 | 0x0237e5… |
| 06-03 09:58:26 | Utilized-Merchandise 0x03d6…873e | No | SELL | 3 | 96¢ | $3 | 0xefc538… |
| 06-03 09:58:26 | Utilized-Merchandise 0x03d6…873e | No | BUY | 6 | 96¢ | $6 | 0xbba32f… |
| 06-03 09:58:26 | Naive-Cockroach 0xac10…bf99 | No | BUY | 3 | 96¢ | $3 | 0xefc538… |
| 06-03 09:58:26 | (anonymous) 0xf518…31d5 | Yes | BUY | 6 | 4¢ | $0 | 0xbba32f… |