Realized P&L (7d)
-$15.4K
Unrealized P&L
-$3.77K
Hit rate
55.2%
Resolved (7d)
81
Trades (7d)
51
7,147 lifetime
Volume (7d)
$18.7K
$5.14M lifetime
Avg / trade
$719
Open exposure
$236.7K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-29
last 11-10 22:47
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 188 days
Categories
Other
43%
53%
-$50,616
Sports
34%
51%
+$34,618
Crypto
14%
47%
+$5,554
Tech
5%
76%
+$14,023
Politics
3%
33%
-$16,463
Pop-Culture
0%
100%
+$293
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
84 active days in 12wk
• peak 47 trades/day
| Market | Outcome | Mid 30D | Net shares | Cost basis | Current mid | Current value | Unrealized P&L | Last trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? | No | -21,740 | -$13,696 | 95¢ | $-20696 | -$7,000 | 07-23 14:03 | |
| Will Chicago Bears win the 2026 NFC North? | No | +31,340 | $23,531 | 62¢ | $19.3K | -$4,257 | 09-28 22:24 | |
| Opensea FDV above $3B one day after launch? | No | -16,740 | -$15,566 | 98¢ | $-16472 | -$906 | 06-26 06:47 | |
| Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? | Yes | +28,288 | $12,630 | 47¢ | $13.2K | +$566 | 10-27 09:17 | |
| Another Fed rate hike in 2026? | Yes | +12,457 | $8,940 | 96¢ | $11.9K | +$2,968 | 11-05 15:56 | |
| Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | Yes | +11,679 | $10,281 | 98¢ | $11.5K | +$1,194 | 10-27 00:47 | |
| Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? | No | -11,374 | -$10,724 | 99¢ | $-11243 | -$519 | 06-16 14:14 | |
| Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch? | No | +12,307 | $10,834 | 78¢ | $9.6K | -$1,247 | 09-24 08:13 | |
| StandX FDV above $1B one day after launch? | No | +8,285 | $6,958 | 98¢ | $8.1K | +$1,132 | 06-16 06:21 | |
| Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? | No | +7,585 | $7,269 | 99¢ | $7.5K | +$237 | 10-01 20:14 | |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | No | +7,417 | $7,033 | 98¢ | $7.3K | +$262 | 10-14 19:59 | |
| Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch? | No | -7,310 | -$5,917 | 97¢ | $-7076 | -$1,159 | 07-05 09:08 | |
| Will Louisville win the 2027 NCAA Men's Basketball National Championship? | No | +7,205 | $6,648 | 96¢ | $6.9K | +$280 | 11-08 22:40 | |
| Opensea FDV above $2B one day after launch? | No | -6,263 | -$5,926 | 98¢ | $-6106 | -$180 | 07-25 08:43 | |
| Will Caleb Williams win the 2026 NFL MVP? | No | +6,226 | $5,427 | 97¢ | $6.0K | +$599 | 10-23 14:41 | |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting? | Yes | +11,931 | $4,123 | 50¢ | $6.0K | +$1,903 | 10-20 11:35 | |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting? | No | +11,567 | $8,025 | 50¢ | $5.7K | -$2,299 | 10-14 10:47 | |
| Will Trump be impeached by December 31, 2026? | No | -5,786 | -$5,143 | 99¢ | $-5714 | -$571 | 05-12 11:45 | |
| GTA 6 launch postponed again? | No | +5,501 | $4,909 | 99¢ | $5.5K | +$551 | 08-23 10:52 | |
| Will Illinois win the 2027 NCAA Men's Basketball National Championship? | No | +5,712 | $5,149 | 91¢ | $5.2K | +$48 | 11-03 14:01 | |
| Will Kendrick Lamar be the top artist in the US for 2026? | No | +5,160 | $4,866 | 100¢ | $5.2K | +$284 | 07-29 22:54 | |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting? | No | +5,131 | $4,676 | 99¢ | $5.1K | +$413 | 09-24 11:02 | |
| Crypto Market Structure legislation becomes law in 2026? | No | +5,265 | $4,755 | 96¢ | $5.0K | +$287 | 11-05 10:01 | |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | No | +6,465 | $2,477 | 78¢ | $5.0K | +$2,533 | 09-30 20:16 | |
| Will Josh Allen win the 2026 NFL MVP? | No | +6,401 | $4,948 | 77¢ | $4.9K | -$19 | 09-20 18:03 | |
| OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027? | No | +4,825 | $4,172 | 94¢ | $4.6K | +$387 | 10-05 10:25 | |
| Extended FDV above $2B one day after launch? | No | +4,347 | $4,261 | 99¢ | $4.3K | +$30 | 05-05 15:33 | |
| Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? | Yes | +4,311 | $3,483 | 99¢ | $4.3K | +$768 | 09-29 16:12 | |
| Will Knight win Worlds 2026 Finals MVP? | No | +4,428 | $3,993 | 85¢ | $3.8K | -$209 | 10-22 16:30 | |
| Will Pope Leo XIV be TIME Person of the Year 2026? | No | +3,918 | $3,487 | 93¢ | $3.6K | +$157 | 09-21 14:42 |
| Market | Trades | Volume USD | Bought | Sold | Net shares | Resolution | P&L | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting | 369 | $466.1K | 327,623 | 292,246 | +35,377 | Yes | +$2,628 | 03-18 14:26 |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 115 | $317.8K | 189,683 | 184,995 | +4,688 | No | -$14,383 | 06-29 19:41 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? | 93 | $207.3K | 107,843 | 107,843 | +0 | Yes | +$4,904 | 04-17 07:14 |
| will the fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting | 8 | $182.9K | 92,090 | 92,090 | +0 | No | +$292 | 03-11 13:57 |
| MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? | 91 | $147.0K | 86,936 | 69,624 | +17,311 | No | +$1,087 | 04-30 08:14 |
| Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? | 73 | $123.4K | 86,686 | 68,602 | +18,084 | Yes | +$5,593 | 06-13 20:25 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting? | 32 | $108.0K | 55,172 | 55,172 | +0 | No | +$703 | 04-01 08:44 |
| Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27? | 83 | $93.4K | 146,611 | 15,475 | +131,137 | No | +$3,059 | 07-19 14:22 |
| Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? | 38 | $87.0K | 44,035 | 44,035 | -0 | No | +$620 | 04-14 11:25 |
| Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? | 44 | $78.8K | 57,167 | 41,506 | +15,661 | No | +$136 | 05-15 21:35 |
| megaeth market cap fdv 4b one day after launch 484 688 448 486 873 133 182 | 32 | $75.4K | 40,777 | 37,023 | +3,754 | No | +$570 | 04-30 22:56 |
| Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? | 66 | $70.8K | 65,407 | 15,406 | +50,001 | Yes | +$9,707 | 05-09 04:46 |
| Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 20 | $63.0K | 34,331 | 36,549 | -2,218 | No | +$322 | 06-11 17:54 |
| Will Bodo Glimt win the 2025–26 Champions League? | 3 | $62.8K | 65,156 | 0 | +65,156 | No | +$2,309 | 03-12 14:57 |
| megaeth market cap fdv 2b one day after launch 738 867 649 272 765 733 | 40 | $61.5K | 64,161 | 9,523 | +54,638 | No | +$8,439 | 04-25 09:01 |
| MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? | 42 | $58.9K | 35,961 | 30,257 | +5,705 | No | +$339 | 04-26 19:05 |
| Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | 24 | $56.6K | 40,743 | 34,103 | +6,639 | No | -$10,899 | 04-25 14:26 |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? | 32 | $56.4K | 57,507 | 6,102 | +51,405 | Yes | +$5,880 | 06-12 14:53 |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? | 31 | $55.7K | 53,627 | 5,650 | +47,976 | Yes | +$3,154 | 06-12 19:31 |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? | 20 | $44.6K | 46,538 | 0 | +46,538 | Yes | +$1,960 | 06-11 19:26 |
| Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? | 7 | $44.2K | 22,286 | 22,286 | +0 | No | +$158 | 04-12 12:29 |
| Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? | 57 | $37.9K | 77,801 | 3,638 | +74,162 | No | +$38,168 | 05-30 18:44 |
| Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's US Open? | 4 | $36.6K | 42,431 | 0 | +42,431 | No | +$4,893 | 08-30 23:55 |
| Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? | 27 | $36.0K | 24,033 | 21,687 | +2,346 | No | +$115 | 05-06 14:21 |
| Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? | 14 | $35.2K | 17,824 | 17,824 | +0 | No | +$346 | 04-14 20:47 |
| Starmer out by December 31, 2026? | 43 | $34.8K | 24,947 | 22,582 | +2,365 | Yes | -$357 | 06-22 08:18 |
| Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? | 26 | $34.4K | 35,622 | 0 | +35,622 | Yes | -$34,386 | 05-16 15:31 |
| Will LeBron James play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27? | 43 | $34.0K | 64,794 | 3,342 | +61,452 | No | +$1,365 | 07-22 11:36 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | 41 | $31.8K | 76,258 | 6,944 | +69,314 | Yes | +$4,216 | 07-27 14:13 |
| Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? | 23 | $31.3K | 20,549 | 11,000 | +9,549 | No | +$121 | 05-09 22:23 |
| Wallet | Shared markets | Overlap volume | Overlap trades | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Open this tab to load correlated wallets… | ||||