Stingy-Incompetence — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$8

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

43.8%

Resolved

Trades

256

lifetime

Volume

$1.63K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-05-07

last 07-13 10:53

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Politics

45% — —

Other

37% 83% +$17

Sports

10% 17% $-9

Crypto

7% — —

Tech

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

25 active days in 12wk • peak 25 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	14	$143	191	191	+0	open	—	05-21 08:14
Trump kiss by May 31?	8	$87	99	98	+0	open	—	05-20 10:25
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	8	$71	77	77	+0	open	—	05-21 08:14
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	14	$56	249	208	+42	open	—	05-30 16:40
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31?	6	$54	38	38	+0	open	—	05-26 16:29
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Colombia's election?	6	$40	83	83	+0	open	—	05-26 12:35
Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 250,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?	4	$39	65	65	+0	open	—	05-20 08:02
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $730 on May 19?	4	$39	23	23	+0	open	—	05-19 13:15
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 18?	4	$38	83	83	+0	open	—	05-18 17:34
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Borna Gojo vs Jurij Rodionov	4	$34	44	44	+0	open	—	05-22 10:00
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 20?	4	$34	85	85	+0	open	—	05-19 21:19
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	4	$31	35	35	+0	open	—	05-23 22:11
Canadiens vs. Sabres	4	$30	31	31	+0	open	—	05-15 01:15
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	4	$30	42	42	+0	open	—	05-23 08:25
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 30?	3	$29	44	22	+22	open	—	05-20 21:57
Valorant: KRÜ Esports vs Evil Geniuses (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Omega	4	$26	33	12	+20	KRÜ Esports	+$5	05-08 22:57
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	6	$25	60	80	-19	open	—	05-31 15:04
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card)	5	$25	18	12	+6	Sean Strickland	$-5	05-10 02:04
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Shuai Zhang vs Emma Navarro	2	$23	27	27	+0	open	—	05-21 15:37
Bordeaux: Alex Molcan vs Tallon Griekspoor	2	$22	12	12	+0	open	—	05-15 16:18
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Jaime Faria vs Lukas Neumayer	2	$20	14	14	+0	open	—	05-21 15:12
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $256 in May?	2	$20	37	37	+0	open	—	05-19 13:35
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	5	$20	29	21	+7	open	—	06-02 09:14
Starmer out by May 31, 2026?	2	$20	11	11	+0	open	—	05-22 08:24
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven	2	$20	11	11	+0	open	—	05-22 22:32
Cavaliers vs. Knicks	2	$20	15	15	+0	open	—	05-21 20:49
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	4	$20	12	12	+0	open	—	05-23 22:08
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,800 in May?	2	$20	13	13	+0	open	—	05-16 01:24
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 215.5	2	$20	20	20	+0	open	—	05-21 20:49
New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals	2	$20	40	40	+0	open	—	05-21 20:54

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-13 10:53:28	Will Brittany Mahomes attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	No	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x48d0f2…
07-13 08:38:58	Will Sabrina Carpenter attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	No	BUY	21	5¢	$1	0xbded09…
07-13 08:34:44	will spy reach 800 in july 2026	Yes	BUY	69	1¢	$1	0x1a3be2…
07-13 03:51:22	will donald trump publicly insult someone on july 13 2026 20260630182730891	No	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0x698508…
07-12 23:24:53	will donald trump publicly insult someone on july 12 2026 20260630182730890	No	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0xb6c2bb…
07-12 07:39:32	will bytedances valuation hit high 850b by july 31 20260630205251334	Yes	BUY	52	2¢	$1	0x1f5cf6…
07-11 01:46:26	kash patel out by july 31 20260626155143217	Yes	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0x26eb10…
07-10 03:11:37	will andurils valuation hit high 150 by july 31 20260629184730571	Yes	BUY	26	4¢	$1	0xa5f126…
07-09 22:50:58	will american express axp q2 total revenue net of interest expense be above 20pt5b 20260707034834085	Yes	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0x38e60c…
07-09 16:48:05	will revoluts valuation hit low 77pt5b by july 31 20260630204859530	Yes	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x0c4ae8…
07-09 05:56:38	Will Jon Ossoff announce a Presidential run before 2027?	Yes	BUY	37	3¢	$1	0x97d8e5…
06-19 22:11:35	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0xafde55…
06-19 21:52:38	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Yes	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0xfa98c9…
06-11 19:24:52	Will GameStop acquire eBay?	Yes	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0x8c530e…
06-08 12:50:24	will tread launch a token by december 31 2027	No	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0x5e1486…
06-08 11:10:49	will anthropic ipo by december 31 2026 546 128	No	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0x0af0a4…
06-06 01:23:39	will wti crude oil wti hit low 75 in june 987	Yes	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0xfdc4ea…
06-05 04:17:03	tread fdv above 300m one day after launch	Yes	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0xf30ca6…
06-04 21:51:10	will wti crude oil wti hit high 125 in june	Yes	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0xb1bcbc…
06-04 20:50:54	will curvance launch a token by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	29	3¢	$1	0xd9efa1…
06-04 06:06:01	Will New York use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0x75f6e4…
06-04 05:57:33	will openai ipo by august 31 2026	Yes	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0x969bbe…
06-03 20:57:48	congress passes iran war powers resolution by june 30	Yes	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0x1916e2…
06-02 20:59:56	Will Propr launch a token by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0x2593ec…
06-02 09:14:36	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0x6f8406…
06-01 22:31:50	Tread FDV above $200M one day after launch	Yes	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0x4bf1df…
06-01 21:07:11	Arc FDV above $500M one day after launch?	No	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0x86d779…
06-01 12:19:44	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0xeaa234…
06-01 09:14:14	Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0x849349…
06-01 01:28:37	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0xf31222…
05-31 15:04:10	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0x17a49b…
05-31 11:28:07	Saudi Arabia bans US military aircraft by June 30?	Yes	BUY	18	6¢	$1	0xc4da88…
05-31 10:39:25	Will Symbiotic launch a token by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x39d965…
05-30 22:58:04	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	Yes	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0x881dab…
05-30 16:40:41	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	42	2¢	$1	0xce875f…
05-29 17:45:18	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	36	13¢	$5	0x957f88…
05-29 17:45:18	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	No	SELL	7	72¢	$5	0x7b99a6…
05-29 17:45:18	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	7	77¢	$5	0x364ed8…
05-29 17:45:16	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	No	SELL	7	52¢	$3	0xcf732b…
05-29 17:45:16	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	8	60¢	$5	0x83400d…
05-29 17:45:16	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	7	76¢	$6	0x608d5b…
05-29 17:39:12	GMGN FDV above $200M one day after launch	Yes	SELL	7	60¢	$4	0x6407fa…
05-29 16:27:59	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	9	57¢	$5	0x0b392e…
05-29 16:20:05	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	72¢	$5	0xe36284…
05-29 16:07:06	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	No	BUY	7	75¢	$5	0xe2b097…
05-29 15:01:32	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	36	14¢	$5	0xbdc55b…
05-29 14:13:54	Tea FDV above $150M one day after launch	Yes	SELL	71	3¢	$2	0xd3ed50…
05-29 13:31:21	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	29	16¢	$5	0x93f628…
05-29 13:31:21	Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30?	No	SELL	7	69¢	$5	0x1e6343…
05-29 11:45:20	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	7	69¢	$5	0x9d1029…
05-29 10:18:49	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	45	9¢	$4	0xa64c8a…
05-29 08:56:38	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	8	60¢	$5	0xfa658e…
05-29 08:53:37	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	No	BUY	7	76¢	$5	0xe0e04b…
05-29 08:39:08	GMGN FDV above $200M one day after launch	Yes	BUY	7	67¢	$5	0x312214…
05-29 07:27:51	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	9	56¢	$5	0xbb5f13…
05-29 05:14:17	Tea FDV above $150M one day after launch	Yes	BUY	71	7¢	$5	0x7fdfc6…
05-29 03:49:58	Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30?	No	BUY	7	71¢	$5	0x6a7c6b…
05-29 03:47:22	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	29	17¢	$5	0x91f4f7…
05-29 03:39:05	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?	No	SELL	12	41¢	$5	0x959220…
05-29 01:19:00	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	45	11¢	$5	0x4b1ab2…
05-28 23:34:56	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	36	11¢	$4	0xa7f20f…
05-28 23:24:56	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	23¢	$5	0x7deb45…
05-28 23:24:26	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	15	29¢	$4	0xaaf1e1…
05-28 19:59:03	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	24	17¢	$4	0x946403…
05-28 18:39:30	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?	No	BUY	12	41¢	$5	0x5ee973…
05-28 14:35:39	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	36	14¢	$5	0xbae3be…
05-28 14:25:02	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	25¢	$5	0xd0161f…
05-28 14:24:39	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	34¢	$5	0xa662dd…
05-28 13:59:18	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	62	7¢	$4	0xd5878c…
05-28 13:37:27	Tread FDV above $300M one day after launch	Yes	BUY	42	12¢	$5	0xafe70f…
05-28 13:06:22	Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	SELL	8	60¢	$5	0xe29fa8…
05-28 10:59:17	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	24	21¢	$5	0xdb6368…
05-28 10:48:10	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	Yes	SELL	71	5¢	$4	0x93955e…
05-28 04:59:31	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	62	8¢	$5	0x8d31a1…
05-28 04:06:28	Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	BUY	8	63¢	$5	0xce6d45…
05-28 02:33:09	Will GMGN launch a token by December 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	8	60¢	$5	0x592e48…
05-28 01:48:32	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	Yes	BUY	71	7¢	$5	0x95fd4b…
05-28 01:36:34	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	26	21¢	$6	0x4da223…
05-28 00:46:35	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	Yes	SELL	23	21¢	$5	0xbfc226…
05-27 05:59:37	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	16	26¢	$4	0x5dfe88…
05-27 05:58:44	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	26¢	$1	0x72dc29…
05-26 23:43:53	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	21	24¢	$5	0x2f7b13…
05-26 16:29:02	Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31?	No	SELL	6	88¢	$5	0x04a277…
05-26 16:18:32	Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31?	No	BUY	6	81¢	$5	0xc3f4b3…
05-26 12:35:08	Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Colombia's election?	Yes	SELL	36	15¢	$5	0xd67d08…
05-26 11:16:16	Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Colombia's election?	Yes	BUY	36	14¢	$5	0x5a6658…
05-26 06:17:05	Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Colombia's election?	Yes	SELL	36	14¢	$5	0x757a2d…
05-26 05:42:19	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27?	No	SELL	7	84¢	$6	0xd5fc7f…
05-25 22:44:00	Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Colombia's election?	Yes	BUY	36	14¢	$5	0xa9c966…
05-25 21:39:03	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27?	No	BUY	7	72¢	$5	0x0532a7…
05-25 21:05:24	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	7	36¢	$3	0xa4c908…
05-25 20:41:48	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through December 31?	Yes	BUY	8	62¢	$5	0xf86588…
05-24 14:19:45	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	No	SELL	21	28¢	$6	0xc00db9…
05-24 03:22:26	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	No	BUY	21	24¢	$5	0x4a6f26…
05-23 22:11:22	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23?	No	SELL	8	72¢	$6	0xa90052…
05-23 22:11:15	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?	Yes	SELL	31	13¢	$4	0x1649a7…
05-23 22:11:01	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	11	45¢	$5	0x2cfd17…
05-23 22:10:45	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	SELL	12	44¢	$5	0x3e672a…
05-23 22:08:41	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	SELL	6	80¢	$5	0xf3ea27…
05-23 22:07:48	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	Yes	SELL	5	95¢	$5	0xcc5098…