Stingy-Incompetence — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$93

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

41.0%

Resolved

153

Trades

456

lifetime

Volume

$2.78K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-05-07

last 08-25 09:15

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 55 days

Categories

Politics

43% 33% +$4

Other

39% 23% -$85

Sports

11% 19% +$7

Crypto

5% 14% -$13

Tech

1% 0% -$5

Pop-Culture

1% 0% $0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

1 active day in 12wk • peak 14 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	14	$143	191	191	+0	No	+$3	05-21 08:14
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	14	$129	194	194	+0	Yes	+$9	05-29 17:45
Trump kiss by May 31?	8	$87	99	98	+0	Yes	+$7	05-20 10:25
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	8	$74	151	151	+0	No	-$6	05-23 08:48
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	8	$71	77	77	+0	No	+$11	05-21 08:14
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	17	$65	156	156	+0	open	—	08-25 09:14
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	14	$56	249	208	+42	No	-$6	05-30 16:40
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?	5	$55	61	43	+18	No	+$13	05-19 13:12
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31?	6	$54	38	38	+0	No	+$4	05-26 16:29
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	7	$49	58	58	+0	No	-$1	05-26 21:45
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Colombia's election?	6	$40	83	83	+0	No	+$0	05-26 12:35
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-17?	4	$40	33	33	+0	No	+$0	05-15 17:14
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 30?	4	$40	44	44	+0	No	$0	05-22 08:02
Will Sunrisers Hyderabad win the 2026 Indian Premier League?	4	$39	89	89	+0	No	-$1	05-19 13:17
Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 250,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?	4	$39	65	65	+0	No	-$1	05-20 08:02
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $730 on May 19?	4	$39	23	23	+0	Yes	-$1	05-19 13:15
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 18?	4	$38	83	83	+0	Down	-$2	05-18 17:34
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	7	$35	80	75	+5	No	-$2	06-01 12:19
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	4	$35	59	59	+0	Yes	-$5	05-20 02:05
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Borna Gojo vs Jurij Rodionov	4	$34	44	44	+0	Jurij Rodionov	-$6	05-22 10:00
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 20?	4	$34	85	85	+0	Yes	-$6	05-19 21:19
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins	2	$31	71	71	+0	Atlanta Braves	+$11	05-21 23:42
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	4	$31	35	35	+0	Yes	+$1	05-23 22:11
Canadiens vs. Sabres	4	$30	31	31	+0	Canadiens	+$10	05-15 01:15
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	4	$30	42	42	+0	No	+$0	05-23 08:25
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	7	$30	39	32	+7	Yes	+$5	06-02 09:14
Valorant: KRÜ Esports vs Evil Geniuses (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Omega	4	$26	33	12	+20	KRÜ Esports	+$5	05-08 22:57
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	6	$26	214	214	+0	No	-$4	05-28 10:48
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card)	5	$25	18	12	+6	Sean Strickland	-$5	05-10 02:04
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Shuai Zhang vs Emma Navarro	2	$23	27	27	+0	Emma Navarro	+$3	05-21 15:37

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-25 09:15:46	Will UBS or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in Anthropic's initial public offering?	Yes	SELL	27	0¢	$0	0xdbae8d…
08-25 09:15:42	Tread FDV above $300M one day after launch	Yes	SELL	14	2¢	$0	0xc587a0…
08-25 09:15:34	Will GameStop acquire eBay?	Yes	SELL	6	6¢	$0	0x54a17b…
08-25 09:15:28	Tread FDV above $200M one day after launch	Yes	SELL	6	7¢	$0	0xecf380…
08-25 09:15:22	Will New York use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	14	2¢	$0	0xfef941…
08-25 09:15:18	Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?	Yes	SELL	6	9¢	$1	0xf46689…
08-25 09:15:09	Will Oura's market cap be between $7.5B and $10B at market close on IPO day?	Yes	SELL	7	8¢	$1	0x4a74dc…
08-25 09:15:00	Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	8	8¢	$1	0xa7e542…
08-25 09:14:51	Will Jon Ossoff announce a Presidential run before 2027?	Yes	SELL	37	2¢	$1	0xa21e07…
08-25 09:14:43	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	7	16¢	$1	0xe446e3…
08-25 09:14:27	Will Tread launch a token by December 31, 2027?	No	SELL	8	15¢	$1	0xfb4b36…
08-25 09:14:18	Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	8	21¢	$2	0x4398c1…
08-25 09:13:52	Arc FDV above $500M one day after launch?	No	SELL	8	27¢	$2	0x298368…
08-25 09:13:45	Will Propr launch a token by June 30, 2027?	No	SELL	7	34¢	$2	0xf493b7…
07-13 10:53:28	Will Brittany Mahomes attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	No	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x48d0f2…
07-13 08:38:58	Will Sabrina Carpenter attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	No	BUY	21	5¢	$1	0xbded09…
07-13 08:34:44	will spy reach 800 in july 2026	Yes	BUY	69	1¢	$1	0x1a3be2…
07-13 03:51:22	will donald trump publicly insult someone on july 13 2026 20260630182730891	No	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0x698508…
07-12 23:24:53	will donald trump publicly insult someone on july 12 2026 20260630182730890	No	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0xb6c2bb…
07-12 07:39:32	will bytedances valuation hit high 850b by july 31 20260630205251334	Yes	BUY	52	2¢	$1	0x1f5cf6…
07-11 01:46:26	kash patel out by july 31 20260626155143217	Yes	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0x26eb10…
07-10 03:11:37	will andurils valuation hit high 150 by july 31 20260629184730571	Yes	BUY	26	4¢	$1	0xa5f126…
07-09 22:50:58	will american express axp q2 total revenue net of interest expense be above 20pt5b 20260707034834085	Yes	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0x38e60c…
07-09 19:12:01	Will Graham Platner be the Maine Senate Democratic nominee on July 27?	Yes	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0xb74863…
07-09 16:48:05	will revoluts valuation hit low 77pt5b by july 31 20260630204859530	Yes	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x0c4ae8…
07-09 05:56:38	Will Jon Ossoff announce a Presidential run before 2027?	Yes	BUY	37	3¢	$1	0x97d8e5…
07-08 15:08:52	Will Oura's market cap be between $7.5B and $10B at market close on IPO day?	Yes	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0xa9e621…
07-05 03:52:23	Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0x62000c…
07-02 09:18:23	Will "Minions & Monsters" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 77m and 86m?	Yes	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0xb05cc8…
06-19 22:11:35	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0xafde55…
06-19 21:52:38	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Yes	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0xfa98c9…
06-11 19:24:52	Will GameStop acquire eBay?	Yes	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0x8c530e…
06-08 12:50:24	will tread launch a token by december 31 2027	No	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0x5e1486…
06-08 11:10:49	will anthropic ipo by december 31 2026 546 128	No	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0x0af0a4…
06-06 01:23:39	will wti crude oil wti hit low 75 in june 987	Yes	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0xfdc4ea…
06-05 18:02:30	Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0xe35d9d…
06-05 08:01:10	Will SpaceX IPO on June 30, 2026 or later?	Yes	BUY	36	3¢	$1	0xc61090…
06-05 05:56:34	Will Kroger Q1 identical sales without fuel growth be above 2%?	Yes	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0xf3d00b…
06-05 04:17:03	tread fdv above 300m one day after launch	Yes	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0xf30ca6…
06-04 21:51:10	will wti crude oil wti hit high 125 in june	Yes	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0xb1bcbc…
06-04 21:12:43	Will Gianluca Tittarelli win the 2026 Macerata mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x2a0bd9…
06-04 20:50:54	will curvance launch a token by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	29	3¢	$1	0xd9efa1…
06-04 20:47:46	Will Sandro Parcaroli win the 2026 Macerata mayoral election?	No	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0x8ce9e4…
06-04 06:06:01	Will New York use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0x75f6e4…
06-04 05:57:33	will openai ipo by august 31 2026	Yes	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0x969bbe…
06-04 01:29:51	Will Citigroup or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in Anthropic's initial public offering?	Yes	BUY	48	2¢	$1	0xe3c311…
06-04 00:51:58	Will UBS or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in Anthropic's initial public offering?	Yes	BUY	27	4¢	$1	0xcc9a9d…
06-03 20:57:48	congress passes iran war powers resolution by june 30	Yes	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0x1916e2…
06-03 17:17:45	Will Deutsche Bank or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in Anthropic's initial public offering?	Yes	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x6f997d…
06-03 17:10:30	Will Bank of America or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in Anthropic's initial public offering?	Yes	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0x2382bf…
06-03 04:30:57	Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0x51920b…
06-02 20:59:56	Will Propr launch a token by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0x2593ec…
06-02 09:14:36	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0x6f8406…
06-01 22:31:50	Tread FDV above $200M one day after launch	Yes	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0x4bf1df…
06-01 21:07:11	Arc FDV above $500M one day after launch?	No	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0x86d779…
06-01 12:19:44	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0xeaa234…
06-01 09:14:14	Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0x849349…
06-01 01:28:37	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0xf31222…
06-01 00:53:37	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0xcc4f33…
05-31 17:39:04	Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?	Yes	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0xab59a0…
05-31 15:04:10	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0x17a49b…
05-31 12:22:03	Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $6.00 and $7.00 on June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0x2a2c75…
05-31 11:28:07	Saudi Arabia bans US military aircraft by June 30?	Yes	BUY	18	6¢	$1	0xc4da88…
05-31 10:39:25	Will Symbiotic launch a token by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x39d965…
05-31 08:27:42	Will Innio's market cap be between $26B and $29B at market close on IPO day?	Yes	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0xa80160…
05-31 05:21:35	US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31?	No	BUY	46	2¢	$1	0x89e516…
05-31 04:43:14	Will Terrill Robinson be the Democratic nominee for NV-03?	Yes	BUY	21	5¢	$1	0x0f0711…
05-31 04:09:29	Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 25m?	No	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0xbe2dc4…
05-31 04:09:29	Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 25m and 28m?	Yes	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0x7bc119…
05-31 03:10:13	Will Sunshine Silver's market cap be at least $3B at market close on IPO day?	Yes	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0x3d8765…
05-31 03:07:39	Will Sunshine Silver's market cap be between $2.75B and $3B at market close on IPO day?	Yes	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0x54f0f3…
05-30 22:58:04	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	Yes	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0x881dab…
05-30 21:39:58	Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from May 26 to June 2, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0x520054…
05-30 18:33:56	Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 73m and 79m?	Yes	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0x16f71d…
05-30 17:22:29	Will "The Breadwinner" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 6m and 7m?	Yes	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0x64a43f…
05-30 16:40:41	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	42	2¢	$1	0xce875f…
05-30 16:05:45	Will "The Breadwinner" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 7m?	No	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0xb2108f…
05-29 17:45:18	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	36	13¢	$5	0x957f88…
05-29 17:45:18	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	No	SELL	7	72¢	$5	0x7b99a6…
05-29 17:45:18	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	7	77¢	$5	0x364ed8…
05-29 17:45:16	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	No	SELL	7	52¢	$3	0xcf732b…
05-29 17:45:16	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	8	60¢	$5	0x83400d…
05-29 17:45:16	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	7	76¢	$6	0x608d5b…
05-29 17:39:12	GMGN FDV above $200M one day after launch	Yes	SELL	7	60¢	$4	0x6407fa…
05-29 16:27:59	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	9	57¢	$5	0x0b392e…
05-29 16:20:05	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	72¢	$5	0xe36284…
05-29 16:07:06	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	No	BUY	7	75¢	$5	0xe2b097…
05-29 15:51:37	Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 25m?	Yes	SELL	7	78¢	$6	0xf4f91a…
05-29 15:01:32	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	36	14¢	$5	0xbdc55b…
05-29 14:13:54	Tea FDV above $150M one day after launch	Yes	SELL	71	3¢	$2	0xd3ed50…
05-29 13:31:21	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	29	16¢	$5	0x93f628…
05-29 13:31:21	Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30?	No	SELL	7	69¢	$5	0x1e6343…
05-29 11:45:20	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	7	69¢	$5	0x9d1029…
05-29 11:13:48	Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 25m?	Yes	BUY	7	67¢	$5	0xbf23b1…
05-29 10:18:49	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	45	9¢	$4	0xa64c8a…
05-29 08:56:38	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	8	60¢	$5	0xfa658e…
05-29 08:53:37	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	No	BUY	7	76¢	$5	0xe0e04b…
05-29 08:39:08	GMGN FDV above $200M one day after launch	Yes	BUY	7	67¢	$5	0x312214…
05-29 07:27:51	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	9	56¢	$5	0xbb5f13…
05-29 05:14:17	Tea FDV above $150M one day after launch	Yes	BUY	71	7¢	$5	0x7fdfc6…