Realized P&L
-$31
Unrealized P&L
-$12
Hit rate
61.5%
Resolved
228
Trades
710
lifetime
Volume
$922
lifetime
Avg / trade
$1
Open exposure
$21
27 positions
First seen
2026-05-05
last 09-25 00:43
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 83 days
Categories
Politics
56% 56% +$4
Other
32% 59% -$60
Crypto
6% 75% +$10
Sports
5% 38% +$15
Tech
0% 67% -$1
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
11 active days in 12wk • peak 4 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No +4 $0 88¢ $3 +$4 07-20 14:26
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No +3 $2 79¢ $2 +$0 09-20 00:53
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? No +2 $1 99¢ $2 +$1 05-28 04:06
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? Yes +3 $1 44¢ $1 +$0 06-24 16:57
Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31? No +1 $1 93¢ $1 +$0 06-24 10:51
Will GameStop acquire eBay? No +1 $1 98¢ $1 +$0 05-14 07:35
Kash Patel out by December 31? Yes +7 $4 18¢ $1 -$3 07-11 18:49
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027? Yes +3 $1 40¢ $1 +$0 06-24 16:57
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No +1 $1 99¢ $1 +$0 05-12 16:37
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Yes +9 $2 12¢ $1 -$1 07-03 09:31
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Yes +7 $2 12¢ $1 -$1 09-07 00:50
Will Max Martin attend Taylor Swift's wedding? Yes +3 $1 29¢ $1 $0 07-18 09:24
Will Jon Ossoff announce a Presidential run before 2027? Yes +36 $1 2¢ $1 $0 07-09 05:56
will a chinese company have one of the top 3 ai models by december 31 Yes +4 $2 16¢ $1 -$1 08-03 11:14
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? Yes +3 $1 16¢ $0 -$1 07-14 10:54
Will Donald Trump announce a presidential run before 2027? Yes +15 $2 2¢ $0 -$2 07-28 00:09
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes +3 $1 12¢ $0 -$1 07-16 02:56
Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31? Yes +5 $1 7¢ $0 -$1 06-24 10:47
Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026? Yes +3 $1 11¢ $0 -$1 07-02 23:18
Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027? Yes +2 $1 20¢ $0 -$1 05-06 20:52
Law banning sports prediction markets enacted in 2026? Yes +4 $1 6¢ $0 -$1 06-15 00:25
Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31? Yes +4 $1 6¢ $0 -$1 07-04 11:51
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Yes +10 $1 2¢ $0 -$1 09-07 00:40
Will Gavin Newsom be arrested before 2027? Yes +11 $1 2¢ $0 -$1 06-15 18:20
Will GameStop acquire eBay? Yes +6 $1 2¢ $0 -$1 06-11 06:33
Will the United States have an Ebola case in 2026? Yes +1 $1 6¢ $0 -$1 05-27 05:12
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? Yes +3 $1 2¢ $0 -$1 06-24 06:24