Evergreen-Grill — Polymarket

Realized P&L (30d)

-$970

Unrealized P&L

+$143

Hit rate

40.3%

Resolved (30d)

136

Trades (30d)

1,576

77,013 lifetime

Volume (30d)

$40.4K

$2.01M lifetime

Avg / trade

$26

Open exposure

$4.44K

30 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-29 22:00

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 262 days

Categories

Other

54% 38% +$11,083

Politics

33% 54% +$12,142

Sports

9% 39% -$6,050

Crypto

4% 36% +$1,986

Tech

0% 33% -$44

Pop-Culture

0% 56% +$372

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

83 active days in 12wk • peak 514 trades/day

Open positions (30) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the Democratic Party win the VA-06 House seat?	No	-605	-$411	94¢	$-566	-$154	05-08 14:09
Will the S&P 500 have the best performance in 2026?	Yes	-499	-$160	76¢	$-379	-$219	05-25 06:52
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	No	+530	$122	66¢	$353	+$231	10-21 01:15
Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?	Yes	+294	$287	99¢	$292	+$5	10-29 17:54
Will the Republicans win the Vermont governor race in 2026?	No	+1,185	$153	22¢	$267	+$114	10-28 01:25
Will the Democrats win the Vermont governor race in 2026?	No	+327	$260	77¢	$252	-$7	10-29 15:14
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	No	+255	$233	94¢	$241	+$8	10-29 06:04
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	-214	-$132	97¢	$-208	-$76	10-28 23:29
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31?	No	-218	-$156	88¢	$-193	-$37	10-29 16:09
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	+177	$161	100¢	$176	+$15	08-23 19:15
No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the November 2026 meeting?	No	+202	$230	86¢	$174	-$55	10-29 17:30
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	+300	$57	56¢	$168	+$111	10-28 18:36
Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the November 2026 meeting?	Yes	+185	$156	86¢	$159	+$4	10-29 15:04
Will no next Israeli Minister of Justice be appointed by February 28, 2027?	Yes	+299	$134	48¢	$145	+$11	10-29 13:26
Will Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026?	Yes	+300	$150	47¢	$141	-$9	10-28 03:53
Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run before 2027?	Yes	-1,033	-$121	12¢	$-129	-$9	08-08 17:19
Will the Republicans win the Massachusetts governor race in 2026?	No	+109	$105	97¢	$106	+$1	10-29 16:23
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	-102	-$99	99¢	$-100	-$1	08-28 06:59
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	-464	-$58	16¢	$-72	-$14	10-28 10:39
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	-422	-$86	16¢	$-70	+$17	10-08 20:50
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?	Yes	-795	-$140	7¢	$-56	+$84	10-10 17:05
iaea visits isfahan fordow or natanz nuclear site by december 31 128	Yes	+239	$91	23¢	$55	-$36	10-28 22:52
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	-335	-$41	11¢	$-35	+$6	07-08 14:39
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	+34	$0	84¢	$29	+$29	10-29 15:24
Will Christine Lagarde win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	+18	$21	97¢	$17	-$3	10-29 16:30
Will the Democrats win the Vermont governor race in 2026?	Yes	+69	$48	23¢	$16	-$32	10-28 14:11
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	-21	-$71	58¢	$-12	+$59	10-27 18:52
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	+29	-$80	42¢	$12	+$92	10-29 16:00
Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?	Yes	-126	-$26	8¢	$-11	+$16	05-01 09:05
Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	-1,247	-$5	1¢	$-11	-$5	10-18 18:41

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	482	$44.6K	45,443	44,366	+1,076	Yes	+$1,409	02-19 14:34
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	796	$42.8K	51,903	51,902	+1	No	+$270	05-31 20:34
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?	429	$34.3K	37,826	37,811	+15	Yes	+$409	02-19 15:36
us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	408	$31.6K	44,268	40,601	+3,667	No	+$1,391	01-25 16:28
us strikes iran by january 23 2026 494 711 798 734 155	509	$30.2K	65,702	62,984	+2,718	No	+$186	01-24 02:57
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	366	$28.0K	35,035	31,394	+3,641	Yes	+$764	02-28 06:18
will usa win the 2026 world baseball classic	646	$26.3K	28,198	27,904	+293	No	+$850	03-18 02:50
nothing ever happens microstrategy	562	$24.2K	36,620	35,123	+1,496	No	+$415	03-14 18:53
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	510	$24.1K	26,913	26,837	+76	open	—	10-29 04:04
will giannis antetokounmpo not be traded	592	$23.7K	24,688	23,673	+1,015	Yes	+$696	02-05 15:12
us strikes iran by february 13 2026 721 759 497 124 197 797 992 641 418 789 676 262 791 574 169 647 275 931	395	$22.2K	37,616	36,697	+920	No	-$111	02-12 13:15
us strikes iran by february 6 2026 242 933 289 312 673 611 155 294	527	$21.9K	57,595	56,250	+1,345	No	+$126	02-05 04:19
us strikes iran by february 27 2026	504	$21.5K	76,252	74,013	+2,239	No	+$640	02-28 07:11
si hit 120 high jan 2026 313 822 269	466	$21.4K	28,853	29,125	-272	No	+$984	01-30 15:36
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?	360	$18.2K	18,154	18,147	+7	open	—	10-29 16:00
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?	338	$17.3K	19,965	19,955	+10	No	+$163	05-31 04:25
will giannis antetokounmpo be traded to the golden state warriors	828	$15.9K	19,724	19,742	-18	No	+$86	02-05 13:40
us strikes iran by february 20 2026 151 468 624 297 614 778 872 127 349 448 499 337 826 553	399	$15.1K	50,545	50,618	-74	No	+$53	02-20 21:02
us strikes iran by january 16 2026 498	292	$14.9K	30,250	28,401	+1,849	No	+$293	01-16 10:21
us strikes iran by january 17 2026 625	271	$14.6K	28,710	28,218	+492	No	+$355	01-17 19:55
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during events with Xi Jinping?	260	$13.2K	9,787	9,786	+1	No	+$116	05-15 06:08
us strikes iran by january 18 2026 991	313	$13.1K	37,383	36,019	+1,364	No	-$194	01-19 02:37
will giannis antetokounmpo be traded to minnesota timberwolves	595	$12.2K	13,495	12,899	+595	No	+$308	02-05 14:41
will japan win the 2026 world baseball classic	257	$12.2K	18,765	17,762	+1,002	No	+$213	03-15 02:58
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?	132	$11.6K	13,332	12,328	+1,003	Yes	+$1,109	02-19 15:56
si hit 100 high jan 2026 422 587 453	296	$11.1K	14,555	12,199	+2,356	Yes	-$218	01-24 06:19
will dominican republic win the 2026 world baseball classic	363	$11.1K	13,690	14,001	-311	No	+$471	03-16 02:57
will giannis antetokounmpo be traded to the miami heat	773	$11.0K	15,189	14,949	+241	No	+$393	02-05 17:10
us strikes iran by february 25 2026	418	$10.7K	51,348	52,589	-1,242	No	+$150	02-24 23:03
spx opens up or down on february 17 2026	196	$10.1K	10,595	10,273	+322	Down	+$557	02-17 13:57

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-29 23:00:09	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on October 30?	No	SELL	5	41¢	$2	0xbd166f…
10-29 22:55:09	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 15°C on October 30?	Yes	SELL	6	71¢	$4	0x88c528…
10-29 22:49:06	Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	299	2¢	$6	0xa9b2fe…
10-29 22:48:25	Will Christine Lagarde win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	SELL	281	3¢	$9	0xe02082…
10-29 22:30:12	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C on October 30?	No	BUY	10	45¢	$4	0x8f0e93…
10-29 22:28:42	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on October 30?	No	SELL	18	76¢	$13	0x0aca5a…
10-29 22:23:37	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on October 30?	Yes	SELL	48	2¢	$1	0x7a9093…
10-29 22:23:37	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on October 30?	Yes	SELL	4	2¢	$0	0x64dbc8…
10-29 22:06:22	Will Christine Lagarde win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	SELL	18	3¢	$1	0xd8ea33…
10-29 22:00:07	Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on October 29?	No	SELL	28	1¢	$0	0xd81016…
10-29 21:59:07	Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on October 29?	No	SELL	28	1¢	$0	0x1d1ae0…
10-29 21:33:37	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on October 30?	No	SELL	0	89¢	$0	0x206e25…
10-29 21:29:01	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 16°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	20	30¢	$6	0x70901f…
10-29 21:13:01	Will the Democrats win the Massachusetts governor race in 2026?	No	SELL	360	3¢	$10	0x1637ed…
10-29 20:57:48	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C on October 30?	No	BUY	34	44¢	$15	0xa51187…
10-29 20:32:37	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0xfcf497…
10-29 20:32:37	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	3	54¢	$2	0x06f8b1…
10-29 20:32:03	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	11	54¢	$6	0xe15efa…
10-29 20:25:27	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 15°C on October 30?	No	BUY	115	41¢	$47	0xbda073…
10-29 20:25:27	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 15°C on October 30?	No	BUY	179	42¢	$75	0x6d5ab7…
10-29 20:22:52	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on October 30?	Yes	SELL	26	39¢	$10	0x67b277…
10-29 20:07:58	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C on October 30?	No	BUY	139	45¢	$63	0x1c0f0c…
10-29 20:04:15	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	3	7¢	$0	0x06efda…
10-29 20:00:27	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on October 30?	No	SELL	40	55¢	$22	0x48ec1a…
10-29 20:00:25	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on October 30?	No	SELL	6	59¢	$4	0x506f1f…
10-29 19:57:33	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 24°C on October 30?	No	SELL	5	69¢	$4	0x9834ec…
10-29 19:54:51	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0x0daff6…
10-29 19:54:19	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	4	45¢	$2	0xe533f1…
10-29 19:44:09	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on October 30?	No	SELL	10	55¢	$5	0x43f62f…
10-29 19:35:19	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on October 30?	No	SELL	22	55¢	$12	0x9b6c97…
10-29 19:16:12	Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.20 and $2.30 in October?	Yes	BUY	13	61¢	$8	0x73e5c6…
10-29 19:16:12	Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.20 and $2.30 in October?	Yes	BUY	6	61¢	$4	0x4514d3…
10-29 19:10:34	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on October 30?	No	SELL	30	55¢	$16	0x6f218d…
10-29 19:10:27	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0xa0493f…
10-29 19:10:27	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	8	45¢	$4	0x72a0eb…
10-29 19:10:27	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0x68f4bd…
10-29 19:10:27	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0x6252c7…
10-29 19:10:27	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	33	45¢	$15	0x28d915…
10-29 19:10:27	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	22	45¢	$10	0x25dbe3…
10-29 19:10:27	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	23	45¢	$10	0x17a13d…
10-29 19:10:15	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	10	45¢	$4	0x6f4445…
10-29 19:10:04	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	10	45¢	$4	0x83bc4c…
10-29 19:10:03	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0x36d2f8…
10-29 19:10:03	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	10	45¢	$4	0x29d8f5…
10-29 19:10:03	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on October 30?	No	BUY	71	49¢	$35	0x023b38…
10-29 19:08:37	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	7	45¢	$3	0x5c62a8…
10-29 19:00:27	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on October 30?	No	SELL	25	55¢	$14	0x3a935c…
10-29 17:54:40	Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?	Yes	SELL	6	99¢	$6	0x70f556…
10-29 17:49:20	Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on October 29?	No	BUY	31	11¢	$3	0x1fe82d…
10-29 17:46:55	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 15°C on October 30?	No	BUY	4	49¢	$2	0xb3e433…
10-29 17:39:10	Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on October 29?	No	SELL	10	75¢	$8	0x3660ea…
10-29 17:31:56	Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on October 29?	Yes	SELL	8	39¢	$3	0x28d2b7…
10-29 17:31:53	Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on October 29?	Yes	SELL	32	76¢	$24	0x5c3121…
10-29 17:31:01	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on October 30?	No	SELL	4	80¢	$3	0xb162c7…
10-29 17:30:41	No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the November 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	80	88¢	$70	0x672017…
10-29 17:18:10	Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?	Yes	BUY	17	99¢	$17	0x193edc…
10-29 17:16:31	Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?	Yes	SELL	17	99¢	$17	0xe736bf…
10-29 17:12:53	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	18	5¢	$1	0x169bb7…
10-29 17:11:20	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 24°C on October 30?	No	BUY	101	79¢	$80	0x5e2801…
10-29 17:11:19	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C on October 30?	No	SELL	4	51¢	$2	0x16ae29…
10-29 16:48:19	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on October 30?	Yes	SELL	78	22¢	$17	0x990115…
10-29 16:47:49	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on October 30?	Yes	SELL	83	29¢	$24	0x8079a8…
10-29 16:31:10	Will Christine Lagarde win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	300	4¢	$11	0x030715…
10-29 16:30:46	Will Christine Lagarde win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	209	96¢	$201	0xfdf9a5…
10-29 16:23:14	Will the Republicans win the Massachusetts governor race in 2026?	No	SELL	2	98¢	$2	0xd9f045…
10-29 16:22:22	Will the Democrats win the Massachusetts governor race in 2026?	No	BUY	204	2¢	$5	0x3a2b23…
10-29 16:22:10	Will the Democrats win the Massachusetts governor race in 2026?	No	BUY	203	2¢	$4	0x8118c9…
10-29 16:22:07	Will the Republicans win the Massachusetts governor race in 2026?	No	SELL	64	98¢	$63	0xbfda24…
10-29 16:22:07	Will the Democrats win the Massachusetts governor race in 2026?	No	BUY	2	2¢	$0	0xbf3e66…
10-29 16:21:59	Will the Democrats win the Massachusetts governor race in 2026?	No	BUY	203	2¢	$4	0x81d60d…
10-29 16:17:40	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	124	23¢	$29	0x0fa1aa…
10-29 16:17:38	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	51	11¢	$6	0x1939b1…
10-29 16:11:34	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on October 30?	No	SELL	8	81¢	$6	0xb99a31…
10-29 16:11:34	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on October 30?	No	SELL	13	81¢	$11	0x2f03db…
10-29 16:10:34	Will Christine Lagarde win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	21	96¢	$20	0x9a9c47…
10-29 16:10:20	Will Christine Lagarde win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	7	96¢	$7	0x41fb25…
10-29 16:09:52	Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31?	No	SELL	123	88¢	$108	0x33d0c7…
10-29 16:05:16	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on October 30?	Yes	BUY	80	13¢	$10	0x868f99…
10-29 16:01:19	Will Morgan Wallen be the Billboard #1 top artist in 2026?	No	BUY	2	8¢	$0	0xef512c…
10-29 16:00:38	Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	28	43¢	$12	0x32afbd…
10-29 15:44:50	Will the Republicans win Tarrant County in the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	49	5¢	$3	0x6acda6…
10-29 15:44:34	Will the Democrats win the Massachusetts governor race in 2026?	No	SELL	12	3¢	$0	0xe7d9b9…
10-29 15:25:38	Will the Democrats win the Massachusetts governor race in 2026?	No	SELL	35	3¢	$1	0xa0b85e…
10-29 15:25:38	Will the Democrats win the Massachusetts governor race in 2026?	No	SELL	35	3¢	$1	0x892a62…
10-29 15:25:38	Will the Democrats win the Massachusetts governor race in 2026?	No	SELL	35	3¢	$1	0x4d17ac…
10-29 15:25:38	Will the Democrats win the Massachusetts governor race in 2026?	No	SELL	15	3¢	$0	0x3f987c…
10-29 15:24:58	Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	33	83¢	$27	0x8b9934…
10-29 15:24:23	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on October 30?	No	BUY	65	78¢	$51	0x0b159c…
10-29 15:22:05	Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on October 29?	Yes	SELL	1	34¢	$0	0x7ff0a1…
10-29 15:15:07	Will Democrats win white women in the midterms?	No	BUY	25	29¢	$7	0x003b0e…
10-29 15:14:07	Will the Democrats win the Vermont governor race in 2026?	No	BUY	5	77¢	$4	0x728443…
10-29 15:11:23	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on October 30?	No	BUY	72	82¢	$59	0x4d9ca9…
10-29 15:05:50	Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on October 29?	No	SELL	7	67¢	$5	0xd8e7ba…
10-29 15:05:50	Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on October 29?	No	SELL	4	67¢	$2	0x32b1ec…
10-29 15:05:23	Will the Republicans win the Massachusetts governor race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	34	3¢	$1	0xe66f55…
10-29 15:05:23	Will the Republicans win the Massachusetts governor race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	16	3¢	$0	0x656202…
10-29 15:05:23	Will the Republicans win the Massachusetts governor race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	3¢	$0	0x0a4f7f…
10-29 15:04:53	Will the Republicans win the Massachusetts governor race in 2026?	No	BUY	35	97¢	$34	0xfc0f2e…
10-29 15:04:53	Will the Republicans win the Massachusetts governor race in 2026?	No	BUY	35	97¢	$34	0xced7d9…
10-29 15:04:53	Will the Republicans win the Massachusetts governor race in 2026?	No	BUY	35	97¢	$34	0x6d276a…