Realized P&L (24h)
+$87
Unrealized P&L
+$111
Hit rate
20.7%
Resolved (24h)
8
Trades (24h)
246
77,559 lifetime
Volume (24h)
$7.75K
$2.03M lifetime
Avg / trade
$26
Open exposure
$3.95K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 11-01 05:57
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 265 days
Categories
Other
54% 38% +$11,175
Politics
33% 53% +$12,077
Sports
9% 39% -$6,095
Crypto
4% 36% +$1,986
Tech
0% 33% -$44
Pop-Culture
0% 54% +$303
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
84 active days in 12wk • peak 248 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will the Democratic Party win the VA-06 House seat? No -605 -$411 94¢ $-572 -$160 05-08 14:09
Will the S&P 500 have the best performance in 2026? Yes -499 -$160 82¢ $-406 -$246 05-25 06:52
Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled? Yes +300 $291 99¢ $298 +$7 11-01 01:29
Will the Republicans win the Vermont governor race in 2026? No +1,185 $153 24¢ $278 +$126 10-28 01:25
Will the Democrats win the Massachusetts governor race in 2026? Yes +261 $254 98¢ $256 +$2 10-31 09:39
Will the Democratic Party win the VA-01 House seat? No +713 $238 36¢ $253 +$15 11-01 03:58
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? No +353 $15 64¢ $224 +$209 11-01 00:29
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? No +229 $209 94¢ $216 +$8 10-31 17:11
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31? No -218 -$156 90¢ $-195 -$39 10-29 16:09
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? No +177 $161 99¢ $176 +$14 08-23 19:15
Will no next Israeli Minister of Justice be appointed by February 28, 2027? Yes +299 $123 50¢ $148 +$25 10-30 11:57
Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run before 2027? Yes -1,033 -$121 13¢ $-134 -$14 08-08 17:19
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes +300 $30 41¢ $122 +$91 10-30 21:37
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? No -102 -$99 99¢ $-101 -$1 08-28 06:59
Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the November 2026 meeting? Yes +95 $76 93¢ $89 +$13 10-30 08:18
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes +84 $157 97¢ $82 -$75 10-31 10:10
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes -453 -$65 17¢ $-77 -$12 10-31 22:51
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes -422 -$83 14¢ $-57 +$26 10-31 09:44
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? Yes -795 -$140 6¢ $-48 +$92 10-10 17:05
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes -335 -$41 12¢ $-38 +$2 07-08 14:39
iaea visits isfahan fordow or natanz nuclear site by december 31 128 Yes +219 $87 16¢ $36 -$50 10-31 02:50
Will the Republicans win the Louisiana Senate race in 2026? No +366 $27 8¢ $31 +$4 10-31 21:34
Will Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026? No +48 $34 52¢ $25 -$9 10-31 20:35
No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the November 2026 meeting? Yes +254 $21 7¢ $17 -$3 11-01 00:00
Will Christine Lagarde win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes +300 $18 6¢ $17 -$1 11-01 02:15
Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the November 2026 meeting? No +212 $23 7¢ $14 -$9 10-30 17:28
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? No -22 -$76 59¢ $-13 +$62 10-30 21:06
Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes -1,247 -$5 1¢ $-11 -$5 10-18 18:41
Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027? Yes -126 -$26 7¢ $-9 +$18 05-01 09:05
Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026? Yes -514 -$30 2¢ $-8 +$22 06-29 18:35