Uneven-Deliberation — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$22

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

49.6%

Resolved

168

Trades

933

lifetime

Volume

$4.62K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-08

last 08-06 02:19

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 15 days

Categories

Other

31% 51% +$16

Sports

27% 40% +$6

Crypto

24% — —

Politics

17% — —

Tech

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

41 active days in 12wk • peak 28 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (7) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will bitcoin reach 150k in january 2026	4	$740	371	371	+0	open	—	01-28 03:34
will andr ventura win the 2026 portugal presidential election	2	$380	200	200	+0	open	—	01-12 06:05
Will Sevilla win the 2025–26 La Liga?	2	$378	189	189	+0	open	—	01-19 06:20
will andrey rublev win the 2026 australian open	2	$376	188	188	+0	open	—	01-23 01:45
will bitcoin reach 130k in january 2026	2	$374	188	188	+0	open	—	01-21 06:13
Will Betis win the 2025–26 La Liga?	2	$370	185	185	+0	open	—	01-26 01:24
Iran closes its airspace by May 27?	5	$48	91	91	+0	open	—	05-23 10:45
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	15	$47	37	37	+0	open	—	05-29 17:04
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	14	$32	71	72	-2	open	—	06-01 16:52
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	9	$29	22	22	+0	open	—	05-29 09:22
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?	7	$17	18	18	+0	open	—	05-24 04:47
Parma Calcio 1913 vs. AS Roma: O/U 2.5	4	$16	10	10	+0	Over	+$4	05-10 18:25
Will Sweden be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?	4	$15	15	15	+0	open	—	05-15 07:16
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 15 2889	5	$15	15	15	+0	open	—	06-13 18:24
wta yuan ribera 2026 04 08	1	$15	43	0	+43	open	—	04-09 02:11
Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 15?	5	$15	29	9	+20	open	—	05-15 18:17
Timberwolves vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5	6	$15	27	27	+0	Over	+$6	05-07 04:08
Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	5	$13	8	13	-5	open	—	05-24 00:57
76ers vs. Knicks	4	$13	8	8	+0	Knicks	+$2	05-07 01:58
will spacexs valuation hit high 2pt5t by june 30	6	$13	15	15	+0	open	—	06-15 15:52
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May?	3	$13	10	10	+0	open	—	05-18 05:39
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30?	1	$13	0	20	-20	open	—	06-02 08:52
Spurs vs. Timberwolves	7	$13	365	0	+365	Spurs	$-8	05-09 04:26
Kash Patel out by May 31?	5	$12	7	7	+0	open	—	05-25 02:20
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Roman Andres Burruchaga vs Mattia Bellucci	6	$12	20	0	+20	Mattia Bellucci	$-5	05-07 14:02
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?	4	$12	7	7	+0	open	—	07-01 03:26
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	4	$12	8	8	+0	open	—	06-12 13:35
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Pablo Carreno Busta vs Alejandro Tabilo	4	$12	7	7	+0	Alejandro Tabilo	+$2	05-06 20:45
Crystal Palace FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5	6	$12	13	13	+0	open	—	05-24 08:31
Counter-Strike: CYBERSHOKE Esports vs AM Gaming (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe Series #1 Playoffs	6	$11	31	0	+31	CYBERSHOKE Esports	$-5	05-09 15:28

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-06 02:19:51	wnba tor por 2026 08 06	Toronto Tempo	BUY	4	46¢	$2	0x99c361…
07-10 03:01:16	wta quevedo waltert 2026 07 10	Kaitlin Quevedo	BUY	6	34¢	$2	0x144044…
07-03 05:18:08	flavio bolsonaro charged or arrested by september 30 20260609144215531	Yes	SELL	1	11¢	$0	0xfdf17c…
07-03 05:10:05	iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by july 31	Yes	SELL	5	3¢	$0	0x01e730…
07-03 05:10:04	israel x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026	Yes	SELL	17	3¢	$0	0xc5844f…
07-03 05:09:58	will russia enter khatnie by december 31 2026	No	SELL	1	71¢	$1	0x9e3657…
07-02 03:03:44	iran successfully targets shipping on july 4 20260625225210245	Yes	SELL	3	4¢	$0	0xd04bbe…
07-01 19:08:53	iran successfully targets shipping on july 4 20260625225210245	Yes	SELL	5	4¢	$0	0xde54cd…
07-01 03:26:22	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	2	55¢	$1	0x1f9b73…
07-01 03:26:22	will sheikh tamim bin hamad al thani sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950079	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x05cffe…
07-01 03:26:20	Metamask FDV above $100M one day after launch?	No	SELL	2	75¢	$1	0x26dcfb…
07-01 03:26:19	gpt 5pt6 released by july 13 2026	Yes	SELL	2	78¢	$1	0x4fda57…
07-01 03:26:16	gpt 5pt6 released by july 8 2026	Yes	SELL	3	56¢	$2	0xdacbce…
07-01 03:26:14	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?	No	SELL	2	82¢	$2	0xfcdc8e…
07-01 03:26:13	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?	Yes	SELL	13	32¢	$4	0xbd7220…
07-01 03:26:08	will russia capture all of kupiansk by december 31 391	No	SELL	5	88¢	$4	0xed97a1…
07-01 03:26:08	Will Russia capture Prymorske by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	5	89¢	$5	0x5f2c5b…
07-01 03:26:08	Will Russia invade another country in 2026?	No	SELL	5	91¢	$5	0x1aa892…
07-01 03:26:04	U.S. issues passport with Trump's face on it by July 31?	Yes	SELL	7	83¢	$6	0xedf6b2…
06-29 08:47:02	iran successfully targets shipping on june 30 20260625225210241	Yes	SELL	2	8¢	$0	0x5a9f8e…
06-29 01:35:43	gpt 5pt6 released by july 3 2026	Yes	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0x37c880…
06-29 01:35:31	iran successfully targets shipping on june 30 20260625225210241	Yes	SELL	5	12¢	$1	0x1cf9e3…
06-28 09:17:14	iran successfully targets shipping on july 4 20260625225210245	Yes	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0x14bdfb…
06-28 09:17:07	israel x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026	Yes	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0x669d83…
06-28 09:17:05	iran successfully targets shipping on june 30 20260625225210241	Yes	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0x7e2ecb…
06-28 01:06:05	iran successfully targets shipping on june 27 20260625225210238	No	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0xf80817…
06-28 01:06:02	iran successfully targets shipping by june 27 20260625215135368	Yes	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x82a851…
06-27 00:51:29	gpt 5pt6 released by july 13 2026	Yes	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x7bfd1c…
06-27 00:51:17	gpt 5pt6 released by july 8 2026	Yes	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0x270342…
06-26 16:44:02	iran successfully targets shipping by june 27 20260625215135368	Yes	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0x0caac8…
06-26 16:43:46	will russia enter khatnie by december 31 2026	No	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0x3bee96…
06-26 08:47:04	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?	Yes	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0xff5c11…
06-26 06:50:17	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?	No	SELL	5	86¢	$4	0xcb3909…
06-25 16:53:59	will sheikh tamim bin hamad al thani sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950079	No	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0x677457…
06-25 16:53:58	SAVE Act becomes law by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	23¢	$0	0x4dcc38…
06-25 01:22:49	SAVE Act becomes law by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	20¢	$1	0x44919a…
06-24 09:32:59	Will there be at least 3000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	No	SELL	5	26¢	$1	0xc1c164…
06-21 19:16:34	iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by july 31	Yes	BUY	5	11¢	$1	0x169ec5…
06-21 03:40:47	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?	Yes	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0xd4f0f3…
06-20 19:42:14	Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?	No	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0x5164fc…
06-20 11:51:46	Will Russia capture Prymorske by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1	89¢	$1	0x8316bb…
06-20 11:51:44	SAVE Act becomes law by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0xe2ba27…
06-19 13:57:25	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?	No	BUY	2	82¢	$2	0x3b624a…
06-19 13:03:44	will crude oil cl hit low 75 by end of june	No	SELL	3	23¢	$1	0x31c53f…
06-19 13:03:32	Will Russia capture Prymorske by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	4	90¢	$4	0x5bbd3a…
06-19 12:10:20	will crude oil cl hit low 75 by end of june	No	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0x3fc8dc…
06-19 09:43:53	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?	No	SELL	1	65¢	$1	0x7d3068…
06-19 07:07:56	Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x5478a2…
06-19 00:18:10	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?	Yes	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0x402591…
06-18 13:07:28	iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by july 31 2026	No	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0xb0e63b…
06-18 02:19:41	cs2 aur1 bb3 2026 06 18	BetBoom Team	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0xfcbe8b…
06-17 18:57:56	will trump agree to iranian transit fees in the strait of hormuz by june 30	Yes	SELL	2	7¢	$0	0x97f4b4…
06-17 18:03:52	will trump agree to iranian transit fees in the strait of hormuz by june 30	Yes	SELL	5	12¢	$1	0xdc1161…
06-16 10:23:40	will trump agree to iranian transit fees in the strait of hormuz by june 30	Yes	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0xde443c…
06-16 09:31:06	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?	No	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0x15c113…
06-16 09:31:03	will trump agree to iranian transit fees in the strait of hormuz by june 30	Yes	BUY	1	18¢	$0	0x9f5c94…
06-15 23:01:18	will iran close its airspace by june 15 20260609184136053	Yes	BUY	59	2¢	$1	0x5c86b3…
06-15 19:40:31	fifwc bel egy 2026 06 15 btts	No	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0x17c8a3…
06-15 15:52:46	flavio bolsonaro charged or arrested by september 30 20260609144215531	Yes	BUY	1	27¢	$0	0xcb2026…
06-15 15:52:43	iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by july 31 2026	No	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0x7bc720…
06-15 15:52:33	will spacexs valuation hit high 2pt5t by june 30	Yes	SELL	5	49¢	$2	0xd45fd5…
06-15 14:28:13	will russia capture all of kupiansk by december 31 391	No	BUY	5	80¢	$4	0x39e029…
06-15 14:27:51	will spacexs valuation hit high 2pt5t by june 30	Yes	SELL	10	49¢	$5	0x04dc8f…
06-15 09:44:25	will crude oil cl hit low 75 by end of june	No	SELL	5	51¢	$2	0x086a97…
06-15 05:07:51	will crude oil cl hit low 75 by end of june	No	BUY	5	47¢	$2	0x819743…
06-15 01:15:46	will trump agree to unfreeze iranian assets by june 30	Yes	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0xecab19…
06-15 00:00:27	cs2 9z mglz 2026 06 15	TheMongolz	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0x24982c…
06-14 20:08:46	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by july 31	No	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0x077d90…
06-14 20:08:39	fifwc nld jpn 2026 06 14 btts	No	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0x0be835…
06-13 19:14:18	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 18 2026	No	BUY	3	82¢	$3	0xc12c01…
06-13 18:24:06	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 15 2889	No	SELL	10	50¢	$5	0x1c0068…
06-13 18:01:36	fifwc qat che 2026 06 13 first half total 1pt5	Over	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x62359a…
06-13 18:01:34	russia x ukraine ceasefire by june 30 2026 631	No	SELL	0	97¢	$0	0x4b760f…
06-13 12:30:55	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 15 2889	No	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0x82c1a2…
06-13 12:30:45	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 15 2889	Yes	SELL	5	56¢	$3	0x02bbca…
06-13 10:59:39	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 15 2026	Yes	SELL	5	4¢	$0	0x10f9ad…
06-13 10:59:37	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 15 2889	Yes	BUY	5	35¢	$2	0xa88a60…
06-13 09:49:52	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 15 2026	Yes	SELL	10	3¢	$0	0x403782…
06-13 07:14:18	will crude oil cl hit low 75 by end of june	No	BUY	5	68¢	$3	0x343bc6…
06-13 07:14:16	fifwc qat che 2026 06 13 total 2pt5	Under	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0x057a7b…
06-13 05:56:36	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 15 2889	No	BUY	5	68¢	$3	0xe1990f…
06-13 02:29:34	cs2 prv lgc 2026 06 13	Legacy	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0x1678fc…
06-12 20:00:15	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?	Yes	BUY	250	0¢	$1	0xc0e61b…
06-12 20:00:12	fifwc can bih 2026 06 12 total 2pt5	Under	SELL	2	52¢	$1	0x896ad4…
06-12 18:50:09	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 15 2026	Yes	BUY	15	7¢	$1	0x54d4da…
06-12 18:50:06	cs2 aur1 ts7 2026 06 12 game2	Spirit	SELL	2	95¢	$2	0x2835b3…
06-12 16:17:25	fifwc can bih 2026 06 12 total 2pt5	Under	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0x7b6138…
06-12 16:17:24	U.S. issues passport with Trump's face on it by July 31?	Yes	BUY	2	85¢	$2	0xaafc3b…
06-12 13:35:22	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	Yes	SELL	3	74¢	$2	0x355a1f…
06-12 12:07:37	cs2 aur1 ts7 2026 06 12 game2	Spirit	BUY	2	76¢	$1	0xb27a28…
06-12 12:07:31	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	Yes	SELL	5	79¢	$4	0x37b248…
06-12 06:02:31	Will Neymar play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	4	8¢	$0	0x2ba4e5…
06-12 04:43:12	Will Neymar play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	15	8¢	$1	0x9b9939…
06-10 16:21:01	Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?	No	SELL	1	89¢	$1	0x77181e…
06-09 14:01:22	will trump speak to vladimir putin in june	No	SELL	4	67¢	$2	0x0793b7…
06-09 11:16:36	us iran nuclear deal by july 31	Yes	BUY	5	30¢	$2	0xb689c0…
06-09 05:20:00	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 9	Yes	SELL	5	4¢	$0	0xdd415f…
06-09 04:09:42	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 9	Yes	SELL	27	3¢	$1	0x02df3b…
06-08 21:20:30	cs2 big5 b8 2026 06 09	B8	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0xdedddb…
06-08 13:55:39	Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	No	SELL	3	68¢	$2	0x385be2…