Austere-Analysis — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$72

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

0.0%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$486

lifetime

Avg / trade

$19

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-25

last 06-02 07:06

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

59% 0% $-72

Other

30% — —

Tech

10% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

7 active days in 12wk • peak 3 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	3	$110	77	199	-122	Yes	$-72	03-13 04:57
Will Trump say "NVIDIA" this week?	6	$66	64	34	+30	open	—	05-13 02:33
another 7pt0 or above earthquake by march 31 2026	2	$52	30	30	+0	open	—	02-23 11:59
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode?	2	$51	62	0	+62	open	—	05-11 06:03
will the government shutdown last 1 day or more 842	1	$48	60	0	+60	open	—	01-25 08:00
will nancy pelosi applaud during trumps state of the union	2	$34	20	20	+0	open	—	02-25 11:48
US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China?	2	$34	20	20	+0	No	$-0	05-06 14:05
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	1	$32	0	44	-44	open	—	06-02 07:06
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	3	$24	40	40	+0	open	—	03-01 10:13
Will Trump say "Make America Great Again" this week?	1	$23	30	0	+30	open	—	05-12 03:45
will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide by march 1	2	$12	10	10	+0	open	—	02-26 05:19

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-02 07:06:32	US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	44	73¢	$32	0xfa031b…
05-13 02:33:23	Will Trump say "NVIDIA" this week?	Yes	BUY	20	65¢	$13	0x713982…
05-13 02:32:48	Will Trump say "NVIDIA" this week?	Yes	BUY	10	60¢	$6	0x4b54fe…
05-12 03:45:20	Will Trump say "Make America Great Again" this week?	Yes	BUY	30	78¢	$23	0xd3d8bf…
05-11 15:24:07	Will Trump say "NVIDIA" this week?	Yes	SELL	34	77¢	$26	0xceff61…
05-11 06:03:23	Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode?	Yes	BUY	30	82¢	$25	0x372fb7…
05-11 03:01:34	Will Trump say "NVIDIA" this week?	Yes	BUY	9	50¢	$4	0x74a0e9…
05-10 12:58:21	Will Trump say "NVIDIA" this week?	Yes	BUY	11	50¢	$6	0xd93eef…
05-10 09:49:58	Will Trump say "NVIDIA" this week?	Yes	BUY	14	75¢	$10	0x3c75a8…
05-08 03:41:57	Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode?	Yes	BUY	32	82¢	$26	0xb6274a…
05-06 14:05:10	US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China?	No	SELL	20	83¢	$17	0xdead8d…
05-06 09:33:24	US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China?	No	BUY	20	85¢	$17	0x20b67c…
03-13 04:57:57	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	77	39¢	$30	0xa3b251…
03-01 10:13:21	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	No	SELL	40	0¢	$0	0xf77be1…
02-28 15:52:31	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	No	BUY	20	61¢	$12	0x2e17ff…
02-28 14:29:15	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	No	BUY	20	58¢	$12	0x7daa9a…
02-26 05:19:38	will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide by march 1	Yes	SELL	10	65¢	$6	0xc0e60b…
02-25 11:48:36	will nancy pelosi applaud during trumps state of the union	Yes	SELL	20	99¢	$20	0x36b5db…
02-23 13:20:42	will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6pt5 or higher worldwide by march 1	Yes	BUY	10	57¢	$6	0x774884…
02-23 13:08:52	will nancy pelosi applaud during trumps state of the union	Yes	BUY	20	72¢	$14	0x17ac56…
02-23 11:59:28	another 7pt0 or above earthquake by march 31 2026	Yes	SELL	30	100¢	$30	0xb73d95…
02-22 05:23:36	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	77	39¢	$30	0xc8ff16…
02-19 00:39:26	another 7pt0 or above earthquake by march 31 2026	Yes	BUY	30	75¢	$22	0x91deb1…
01-25 08:00:36	will the government shutdown last 1 day or more 842	Yes	BUY	60	80¢	$48	0xe73495…
01-25 07:59:44	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	122	41¢	$50	0x2c55dd…