Austere-Analysis — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$123

Unrealized P&L

-$52

Hit rate

73.7%

Resolved

Trades

174

lifetime

Volume

$2.58K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$15

Open exposure

$164

3 positions

First seen

2026-01-25

last 10-16 14:43

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 19 days

Categories

Other

67% 82% -$24

Politics

17% 43% -$97

Tech

16% 50% -$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

1 active day in 12wk • peak 1 trade/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will 5-6 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?	Yes	-305	-$84	34¢	$-102	-$18	05-10 07:11
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Yes	+118	$93	50¢	$60	-$34	06-02 07:07
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	-77	-$2	2¢	$-2	$0	10-16 14:43

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T?	1	$173	0	185	-185	Yes	-$12	05-05 04:38
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026?	4	$128	68	68	+0	Yes	+$2	05-12 03:41
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	3	$110	77	199	-122	Yes	-$72	03-13 04:57
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	3	$93	118	0	+118	open	—	06-02 07:07
Will 5-6 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?	6	$84	0	305	-305	open	—	05-10 07:11
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on May 8?	3	$70	40	40	+0	Yes	+$10	05-08 09:48
Will Trump say "NVIDIA" this week?	6	$66	64	34	+30	Yes	+$17	05-13 02:33
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	3	$61	44	44	+0	Yes	+$3	06-02 07:06
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on May 7?	2	$60	33	33	+0	No	+$0	05-05 09:05
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on May 12?	2	$60	30	30	+0	No	+$0	05-12 12:06
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on May 9?	2	$59	30	30	+0	No	+$1	05-09 07:00
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C or higher on May 12?	2	$58	30	30	+0	Yes	+$2	05-12 08:29
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on May 12?	6	$57	46	46	+0	Yes	-$15	05-12 12:06
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on May 12?	3	$56	31	31	+0	Yes	+$6	05-12 08:29
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on May 12?	5	$53	30	30	-0	Yes	+$6	05-12 12:11
another 7pt0 or above earthquake by march 31 2026	2	$52	30	30	+0	Yes	+$7	02-23 11:59
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on May 10?	2	$52	55	0	+55	No	+$3	05-10 07:16
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode?	2	$51	62	0	+62	Yes	+$11	05-11 06:03
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on May 6?	1	$49	50	0	+50	No	+$1	05-06 01:31
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 11?	4	$49	28	28	+0	Yes	+$8	05-12 03:47
will the government shutdown last 1 day or more 842	1	$48	60	0	+60	Yes	+$12	01-25 08:00
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on May 10?	2	$47	50	0	+50	No	+$3	05-10 07:19
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on May 11?	2	$38	20	20	+0	No	+$3	05-11 14:18
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on May 9?	5	$37	43	0	+43	No	+$6	05-09 04:39
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C or higher on May 8?	3	$35	37	0	+37	No	+$2	05-08 06:00
will nancy pelosi applaud during trumps state of the union	2	$34	20	20	+0	Yes	+$5	02-25 11:48
US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China?	2	$34	20	20	+0	No	$0	05-06 14:05
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on May 7?	2	$34	40	0	+40	Yes	+$6	05-07 07:40
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on May 7?	2	$32	36	0	+36	No	+$4	05-06 09:31
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on May 11?	2	$30	29	29	+0	Yes	-$26	05-11 08:08

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-16 14:43:16	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	77	2¢	$2	0xc616ee…
06-02 07:07:14	Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Yes	BUY	48	79¢	$38	0xa516fd…
06-02 07:06:32	US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	44	73¢	$32	0xfa031b…
06-02 07:06:07	Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Yes	BUY	60	79¢	$47	0x0ea875…
06-02 07:05:55	Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	78¢	$8	0xc44276…
05-13 06:39:44	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 23°C or below on May 13?	Yes	BUY	32	95¢	$30	0x3dce48…
05-13 06:39:00	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C or higher on May 13?	Yes	BUY	25	95¢	$24	0x2dae4e…
05-13 06:38:04	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 13?	Yes	BUY	8	93¢	$7	0x73eb60…
05-13 06:37:48	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 13?	Yes	BUY	17	92¢	$16	0xcec9a4…
05-13 06:37:43	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 13?	Yes	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0x037a7a…
05-13 02:33:23	Will Trump say "NVIDIA" this week?	Yes	BUY	20	65¢	$13	0x713982…
05-13 02:32:48	Will Trump say "NVIDIA" this week?	Yes	BUY	10	60¢	$6	0x4b54fe…
05-12 13:09:02	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 11°C on May 12?	No	BUY	15	96¢	$14	0xf69f7a…
05-12 13:07:52	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 9°C on May 12?	Yes	BUY	30	82¢	$24	0x5a7771…
05-12 13:02:40	Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on May 12?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xdeb22f…
05-12 13:01:29	Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on May 12?	Yes	BUY	24	86¢	$21	0x2781dd…
05-12 13:00:48	Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on May 12?	Yes	BUY	6	82¢	$5	0x9d08be…
05-12 12:11:03	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on May 12?	Yes	SELL	30	100¢	$29	0xec0f46…
05-12 12:06:35	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on May 12?	Yes	SELL	16	100¢	$16	0x0e2686…
05-12 12:06:19	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on May 12?	No	SELL	30	100¢	$30	0xdcb182…
05-12 08:29:58	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on May 12?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x18c852…
05-12 08:29:46	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C or higher on May 12?	Yes	SELL	30	100¢	$30	0x1b57e5…
05-12 08:29:19	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on May 12?	Yes	SELL	31	100¢	$31	0xd2078f…
05-12 07:03:08	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on May 12?	Yes	BUY	16	94¢	$15	0x136935…
05-12 06:39:52	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on May 12?	Yes	BUY	5	86¢	$4	0x5ff5b2…
05-12 06:39:31	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on May 12?	Yes	BUY	5	86¢	$4	0xdf3bc8…
05-12 06:38:10	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on May 12?	Yes	BUY	5	86¢	$4	0xa54932…
05-12 06:37:02	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on May 12?	Yes	BUY	0	82¢	$0	0x516446…
05-12 06:35:29	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on May 12?	Yes	BUY	8	82¢	$6	0x04946c…
05-12 06:35:03	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on May 12?	Yes	BUY	5	77¢	$4	0xf24ff8…
05-12 06:34:52	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on May 12?	Yes	BUY	5	74¢	$4	0x7250af…
05-12 06:32:57	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on May 12?	Yes	SELL	29	18¢	$5	0xd1214b…
05-12 06:32:50	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on May 12?	Yes	SELL	1	20¢	$0	0xa1967c…
05-12 06:29:58	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on May 12?	Yes	BUY	25	70¢	$18	0x6906dc…
05-12 06:29:08	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on May 12?	Yes	BUY	5	69¢	$3	0xd39a0b…
05-12 06:23:58	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on May 12?	No	BUY	30	99¢	$30	0xcb8ec4…
05-12 06:17:15	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on May 12?	Yes	SELL	10	47¢	$5	0xd09580…
05-12 06:15:11	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on May 12?	Yes	BUY	10	85¢	$8	0x6664c6…
05-12 06:10:40	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on May 12?	Yes	BUY	5	81¢	$4	0xa8d50c…
05-12 06:10:29	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on May 12?	Yes	BUY	5	80¢	$4	0xb9fc98…
05-12 06:09:07	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on May 12?	Yes	BUY	9	76¢	$7	0x287553…
05-12 06:04:27	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on May 12?	Yes	BUY	13	69¢	$9	0x2b41c4…
05-12 06:03:33	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on May 12?	Yes	BUY	5	81¢	$4	0x06f6db…
05-12 06:03:03	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on May 12?	Yes	BUY	5	81¢	$4	0x77537e…
05-12 06:02:25	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on May 12?	Yes	BUY	14	77¢	$11	0xfd373c…
05-12 06:01:30	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on May 12?	Yes	BUY	6	76¢	$5	0x2de81a…
05-12 05:54:16	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on May 12?	No	BUY	5	84¢	$4	0xa1a1a4…
05-12 05:52:19	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C or higher on May 12?	Yes	BUY	30	94¢	$28	0x302499…
05-12 05:46:36	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on May 12?	Yes	BUY	26	82¢	$21	0x267002…
05-12 05:46:15	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on May 12?	Yes	BUY	5	81¢	$4	0x66c8ff…
05-12 03:47:29	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 11?	Yes	SELL	28	100¢	$28	0x69c38c…
05-12 03:47:19	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 11?	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0xc1889f…
05-12 03:45:20	Will Trump say "Make America Great Again" this week?	Yes	BUY	30	78¢	$23	0xd3d8bf…
05-12 03:41:15	Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026?	Yes	SELL	8	96¢	$8	0xbbe01e…
05-12 03:11:17	Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026?	Yes	SELL	60	96¢	$57	0xf710e2…
05-11 15:24:07	Will Trump say "NVIDIA" this week?	Yes	SELL	34	77¢	$26	0xceff61…
05-11 14:18:31	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on May 11?	No	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0x230f9a…
05-11 08:08:01	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on May 11?	No	SELL	29	7¢	$2	0x9ca34c…
05-11 06:20:57	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on May 11?	Yes	BUY	8	94¢	$8	0xb51899…
05-11 06:19:45	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on May 11?	No	SELL	5	46¢	$2	0xf59bf7…
05-11 06:03:23	Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode?	Yes	BUY	30	82¢	$25	0x372fb7…
05-11 05:58:19	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on May 11?	No	BUY	20	87¢	$18	0x0afa96…
05-11 05:55:46	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on May 11?	Yes	BUY	21	70¢	$15	0xa4ae14…
05-11 05:55:31	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on May 11?	Yes	BUY	10	70¢	$7	0x17bacd…
05-11 05:47:08	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on May 11?	No	BUY	30	91¢	$27	0x3adcb4…
05-11 05:43:54	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 11?	Yes	BUY	8	72¢	$6	0x590241…
05-11 05:39:23	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on May 11?	No	BUY	5	64¢	$3	0xba3146…
05-11 05:37:41	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 11?	Yes	BUY	12	72¢	$9	0x097f39…
05-11 05:37:13	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 11?	Yes	BUY	8	71¢	$6	0xb76624…
05-11 03:01:34	Will Trump say "NVIDIA" this week?	Yes	BUY	9	50¢	$4	0x74a0e9…
05-11 02:58:39	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 11?	No	BUY	10	85¢	$8	0xb48c67…
05-11 01:40:18	Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	33	97¢	$32	0xd130bd…
05-11 01:01:59	Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	35	88¢	$31	0x216881…
05-10 12:58:21	Will Trump say "NVIDIA" this week?	Yes	BUY	11	50¢	$6	0xd93eef…
05-10 12:57:55	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on May 10?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x4d7bd7…
05-10 09:49:58	Will Trump say "NVIDIA" this week?	Yes	BUY	14	75¢	$10	0x3c75a8…
05-10 07:19:56	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on May 10?	No	BUY	20	97¢	$19	0xd1873c…
05-10 07:19:24	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C on May 10?	Yes	BUY	6	84¢	$5	0x4f8a03…
05-10 07:16:08	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on May 10?	No	BUY	25	96¢	$24	0xa38c11…
05-10 07:11:53	Will 5-6 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?	Yes	SELL	190	27¢	$51	0x780182…
05-10 05:48:05	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on May 10?	Yes	BUY	7	73¢	$5	0xb724e2…
05-10 05:48:02	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on May 10?	Yes	BUY	9	73¢	$6	0xd952c4…
05-10 05:45:14	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on May 11?	No	BUY	29	96¢	$28	0xded284…
05-10 05:43:18	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on May 10?	No	BUY	30	97¢	$29	0x95d397…
05-10 05:41:12	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C on May 10?	Yes	BUY	6	66¢	$4	0xf72053…
05-10 05:40:34	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 26°C on May 10?	No	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0xba3b14…
05-10 05:39:57	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on May 10?	No	BUY	30	93¢	$28	0x907069…
05-10 05:39:22	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C on May 10?	Yes	BUY	5	69¢	$4	0xc6f9b6…
05-10 05:35:08	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on May 10?	No	BUY	30	94¢	$28	0x4ef30a…
05-10 05:33:35	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on May 10?	Yes	BUY	30	94¢	$28	0xd9a366…
05-10 05:07:36	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on May 10?	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x3eacd4…
05-10 05:00:24	Will 5-6 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?	Yes	SELL	33	28¢	$9	0xb30ffc…
05-10 04:59:54	Will 5-6 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?	Yes	SELL	29	28¢	$8	0xa1f330…
05-10 04:59:21	Will 5-6 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?	Yes	SELL	12	29¢	$4	0x836a9a…
05-09 08:04:25	Will 5-6 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?	Yes	SELL	15	28¢	$4	0xc185b8…
05-09 08:04:18	Will 5-6 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?	Yes	SELL	26	29¢	$8	0x6523dd…
05-09 08:01:09	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on May 9?	No	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0x704746…
05-09 07:00:56	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on May 9?	No	SELL	30	100¢	$30	0xfde188…
05-09 04:39:53	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on May 9?	No	BUY	8	86¢	$7	0x09f194…
05-09 04:39:28	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on May 9?	No	BUY	7	85¢	$6	0xe8e257…