Stable-Fog — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$1.77K

Unrealized P&L

+$11.5K

Hit rate

85.9%

Resolved

362

Trades

1,579

lifetime

Volume

$1.87M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$1.18K

Open exposure

$198.5K

13 positions

First seen

2026-01-21

last 11-09 07:34

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 166 days

Categories

Other

47% 85% +$1,437

Politics

29% 86% -$2,159

Sports

14% 79% +$1,150

Crypto

9% 77% +$1,341

Tech

0% 80% +$2

Pop-Culture

0% 67% -$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

75 active days in 12wk • peak 18 trades/day

Open positions (13) Resolved markets (21) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Russia invade another country in 2026?	No	+32,384	$29,402	98¢	$31.8K	+$2,367	10-19 07:41
NATO article 5 before 2027?	No	+31,638	$28,503	97¢	$30.8K	+$2,250	10-29 20:06
Will Russia invade a NATO country by December 31, 2026?	No	+30,892	$28,878	98¢	$30.4K	+$1,473	11-03 16:19
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?	No	+23,245	$21,589	97¢	$22.7K	+$1,063	10-24 16:11
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	+23,147	$21,808	97¢	$22.5K	+$726	10-22 07:27
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before March 31, 2027?	No	+19,809	$17,343	95¢	$18.7K	+$1,397	11-04 05:09
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027?	No	+19,809	$17,982	92¢	$18.1K	+$143	11-09 07:34
Will any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026?	No	-6,649	-$6,510	97¢	$-6447	+$63	09-16 07:31
Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026?	No	+6,372	$5,801	95¢	$6.1K	+$253	11-04 05:12
New pandemic before 2028?	No	+6,815	$5,816	86¢	$5.9K	+$79	10-16 09:34
Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31?	No	+5,358	$4,694	96¢	$5.2K	+$471	11-08 10:26
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	-11	-$1,212	98¢	$-11	+$1,201	10-17 18:33
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	No	-1	-$1	99¢	$-1	$0	04-29 14:33

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	20	$82.3K	43,556	43,556	+0	open	—	09-22 12:13
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	29	$71.9K	38,493	38,493	+0	open	—	11-09 07:33
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?	35	$70.9K	52,148	28,903	+23,245	open	—	10-24 16:11
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	18	$52.9K	28,247	28,259	-11	open	—	10-17 18:33
will bitcoin dip to 70k in february 2026 858 241	2	$41.1K	21,139	21,139	+0	Yes	+$1,118	02-05 12:22
will the liberal democratic party win the most seats in the 2026 japanese general election	2	$41.1K	20,944	20,944	+0	Yes	+$432	02-05 07:59
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open?	34	$40.1K	20,216	20,216	+0	No	+$135	05-13 18:59
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	2	$40.1K	20,158	20,158	+0	No	+$117	05-11 11:49
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?	133	$40.0K	21,532	21,532	+0	open	—	05-31 17:07
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	35	$37.9K	38,720	0	+38,720	No	+$800	04-17 04:26
will france uk or germany strike iran by february 28	78	$37.4K	18,772	18,772	+0	No	+$113	02-28 09:32
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev	10	$34.1K	18,000	18,000	+0	Jannik Sinner	-$1,184	05-16 06:38
NATO article 5 before 2027?	25	$32.3K	33,638	2,000	+31,638	open	—	10-29 20:06
Will Russia invade a NATO country by December 31, 2026?	13	$31.8K	32,392	1,500	+30,892	open	—	11-03 16:19
will us or israel strike iran on march 6 2026	12	$29.9K	14,982	14,982	+0	Yes	+$45	03-05 21:26
Will Russia invade another country in 2026?	21	$29.4K	32,384	0	+32,384	open	—	10-19 07:41
Will Nott'm Forest win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League?	6	$29.2K	21,136	10,000	+11,136	No	+$1,041	05-07 20:39
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League?	3	$26.2K	3,053	25,047	-21,995	No	-$1,580	04-10 16:46
russia x ukraine ceasefire by march 31 2026	26	$25.8K	26,028	0	+26,028	No	+$259	03-24 13:35
atp alcaraz fils 2026 02 21	3	$23.6K	11,878	11,883	-5	Alcaraz	+$107	02-21 19:16
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	23	$23.0K	20,000	20,000	+0	Yes	-$5,507	05-08 19:26
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	10	$22.0K	23,263	116	+23,147	open	—	10-22 07:27
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the NBA Western Conference Finals?	20	$21.9K	22,211	0	+22,211	No	+$298	04-03 14:05
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	1	$20.3K	0	20,325	-20,325	No	-$20	06-29 19:10
will bitcoin dip to 35k in february 2026 579 178 738	1	$20.1K	0	20,325	-20,325	No	-$178	02-17 07:30
will the greens win the most seats in the 2026 baden wrttemberg parliamentary elections	4	$20.1K	10,614	10,614	+0	No	+$73	03-08 20:16
will conservative win the most seats in the 2026 colombian chamber of representatives election	2	$20.1K	10,072	10,072	+0	No	+$62	03-10 07:06
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	1	$20.0K	0	20,346	-20,346	No	-$326	05-16 07:45
Will National Liberation Front (FLN) win the most seats in the 2026 Algerian parliamentary elections?	1	$20.0K	20,021	0	+20,021	Yes	+$21	07-12 09:07
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League?	1	$20.0K	20,390	0	+20,390	No	+$390	02-07 10:53

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-09 07:34:04	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	3,948	92¢	$3,632	0xeb6c0a…
11-09 07:33:37	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	SELL	3,693	98¢	$3,634	0xd3cbdd…
11-08 10:26:54	Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31?	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xcdc767…
11-04 05:12:13	Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	424	92¢	$390	0x420a42…
11-04 05:09:57	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before March 31, 2027?	No	BUY	6,636	90¢	$6,000	0x72a2ea…
11-04 05:07:03	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	6,420	100¢	$6,413	0x711124…
11-03 16:20:55	Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1,550	93¢	$1,440	0x6b7700…
11-03 16:19:45	Will Russia invade a NATO country by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1,500	96¢	$1,447	0x05e30e…
11-03 12:47:13	Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	2	93¢	$2	0xdf9197…
11-02 09:07:42	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before March 31, 2027?	No	BUY	2	89¢	$2	0x831422…
11-01 08:18:15	Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	214	90¢	$193	0x7ec090…
11-01 08:17:31	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	SELL	200	97¢	$194	0x83557d…
11-01 08:16:58	Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	222	89¢	$197	0x8f7cab…
11-01 08:15:52	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	SELL	200	97¢	$194	0xd41b8e…
10-31 20:59:18	Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	232	83¢	$193	0x8549ae…
10-31 20:58:13	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	SELL	200	97¢	$194	0xdc8750…
10-31 15:21:49	Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	9	82¢	$7	0xb3bc32…
10-30 09:12:12	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before March 31, 2027?	No	BUY	2,164	89¢	$1,923	0x8453e8…
10-30 09:11:25	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	SELL	2,000	96¢	$1,924	0xea794e…
10-29 20:06:55	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before March 31, 2027?	No	BUY	2,175	88¢	$1,916	0x43747f…
10-29 20:06:31	NATO article 5 before 2027?	No	SELL	2,000	96¢	$1,913	0xa812e6…
10-26 09:53:02	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	1,043	92¢	$960	0xb40779…
10-26 09:52:12	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	SELL	1,000	96¢	$958	0xe20839…
10-25 10:32:26	Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31?	No	BUY	3	94¢	$3	0xf990d5…
10-24 16:12:27	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before March 31, 2027?	No	BUY	2,188	86¢	$1,882	0xdce010…
10-24 16:11:15	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	2,000	94¢	$1,880	0xb86b48…
10-23 16:39:39	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before March 31, 2027?	No	BUY	2,162	86¢	$1,870	0x474189…
10-23 16:37:56	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	2,000	94¢	$1,871	0xaef041…
10-23 14:28:48	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	5,376	93¢	$5,000	0x548df8…
10-22 07:27:23	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	BUY	21	95¢	$20	0xf9bd09…
10-21 07:53:51	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before March 31, 2027?	No	BUY	4,482	84¢	$3,750	0x89d9fd…
10-21 07:52:20	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	SELL	2,000	96¢	$1,916	0xcd7e3a…
10-21 07:51:38	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	2,000	93¢	$1,851	0x16b8ec…
10-19 07:41:17	Will Russia invade another country in 2026?	No	BUY	2	93¢	$2	0x58c250…
10-18 17:07:26	Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31?	No	BUY	11	92¢	$10	0xd579a1…
10-17 18:35:03	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	15,861	90¢	$14,350	0x6765bb…
10-17 18:33:57	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	10,318	97¢	$9,986	0xf6655c…
10-17 18:33:56	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1,941	97¢	$1,873	0x4deb22…
10-17 18:32:27	Real Betis Balompié vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 8.5	Under	SELL	2,500	100¢	$2,497	0xc5295f…
10-17 18:15:56	Real Betis Balompié vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 8.5	Under	BUY	2,473	93¢	$2,299	0x3a3a9c…
10-17 18:13:54	Real Betis Balompié vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 7.5	Under	SELL	2,075	72¢	$1,494	0x545b94…
10-17 17:47:51	Real Betis Balompié vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 7.5	Under	BUY	2,075	96¢	$2,000	0xa3efdc…
10-17 17:46:53	Real Betis Balompié vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 8.5	Under	BUY	27	99¢	$27	0xde016d…
10-17 17:41:02	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	SELL	3,000	95¢	$2,850	0x8e50b7…
10-17 08:55:26	Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	2	93¢	$2	0x348427…
10-16 09:34:45	New pandemic before 2028?	No	BUY	2,063	90¢	$1,860	0xa051a1…
10-16 09:31:33	New pandemic before 2028?	No	BUY	1,136	88¢	$1,000	0x44f3d7…
10-16 09:30:58	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	SELL	3,000	96¢	$2,880	0x69cac9…
10-15 10:41:56	Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0xae80e6…
10-14 07:24:01	New pandemic before 2028?	No	BUY	2	88¢	$2	0x84aed7…
10-13 19:59:58	New pandemic before 2028?	No	BUY	1	88¢	$1	0x91ecab…
10-12 07:22:29	Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31?	No	BUY	1	91¢	$1	0xfe4888…
10-11 09:48:03	New pandemic before 2028?	No	BUY	3	87¢	$3	0x8d1dc7…
10-08 17:11:36	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	26	94¢	$24	0x11e338…
10-08 09:29:50	New pandemic before 2028?	No	BUY	3,609	82¢	$2,950	0xaacec7…
10-08 08:17:46	Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	52	92¢	$48	0x20db4d…
10-08 08:12:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x861514…
10-08 08:10:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Down	SELL	16	54¢	$8	0x35f0b2…
10-08 08:09:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Down	BUY	16	45¢	$7	0x771100…
10-07 19:10:09	Braga: Mackenzie McDonald vs Ryan Nijboer	Ryan Nijboer	SELL	7	33¢	$2	0xab9ef8…
10-07 18:03:40	Braga: Mackenzie McDonald vs Ryan Nijboer	Ryan Nijboer	BUY	7	75¢	$5	0xa30426…
10-07 18:00:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	Down	SELL	12	55¢	$7	0xe3cc42…
10-07 17:53:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	Down	BUY	12	50¢	$6	0xa8e588…
10-07 17:50:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	Down	SELL	3	60¢	$2	0x76debf…
10-07 17:50:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	Down	SELL	12	60¢	$7	0x43da68…
10-07 17:49:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	Down	BUY	15	46¢	$7	0xacae95…
10-07 16:00:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	Down	SELL	10	60¢	$6	0xe10578…
10-07 15:57:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 7, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	Down	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x5a89ab…
10-07 11:22:14	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	BUY	5,053	95¢	$4,800	0x14eeb0…
10-07 11:11:20	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	SELL	5,000	97¢	$4,850	0x109b18…
10-07 09:41:54	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	4,113	94¢	$3,858	0x4b077b…
10-07 09:34:29	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	SELL	4,000	97¢	$3,872	0x1f83d9…
10-06 08:34:34	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	4	97¢	$4	0x837f0b…
10-05 08:39:19	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	BUY	3,085	94¢	$2,900	0xf79d5c…
10-05 08:38:25	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	SELL	3,000	97¢	$2,904	0x876dea…
10-04 06:38:17	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	BUY	3,711	94¢	$3,488	0x4e27cf…
10-04 06:37:38	Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	SELL	3,571	98¢	$3,491	0x8c3a95…
10-03 08:27:05	Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	4	98¢	$4	0x1ccb68…
10-01 09:34:23	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	BUY	1,415	94¢	$1,330	0xdf11c8…
10-01 09:09:17	friedrich merz out as chancellor of germany before october 31 2026	No	SELL	1,353	98¢	$1,326	0xef3129…
10-01 05:19:38	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	BUY	3,862	94¢	$3,630	0x1515e9…
09-30 22:13:20	friedrich merz out as chancellor of germany before october 31 2026	No	SELL	3,708	98¢	$3,634	0x35524b…
09-30 16:22:14	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	BUY	823	94¢	$774	0x6842a4…
09-30 16:08:30	friedrich merz out as chancellor of germany before october 31 2026	No	SELL	789	98¢	$773	0x53f614…
09-30 09:06:15	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	BUY	5,178	94¢	$4,867	0x359a11…
09-30 09:05:47	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	5,000	97¢	$4,867	0x93bf43…
09-30 09:02:42	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5,393	90¢	$4,854	0xf0d922…
09-30 09:01:21	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	5,000	97¢	$4,872	0x280e96…
09-29 08:32:00	Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	3	86¢	$3	0xc99dcb…
09-28 16:45:36	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5,532	90¢	$4,979	0x7082f4…
09-28 07:40:44	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	2,131	90¢	$1,918	0x6c3de8…
09-28 07:40:17	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	SELL	2,000	96¢	$1,926	0xddc732…
09-27 20:42:41	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	4	89¢	$4	0x86235c…
09-26 09:09:26	friedrich merz out as chancellor of germany before october 31 2026	No	BUY	3,707	97¢	$3,595	0xef5a06…
09-26 09:08:06	Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	BUY	1,478	95¢	$1,400	0xe7a1ba…
09-25 07:41:45	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	3,227	89¢	$2,872	0x3c8f1d…
09-25 07:41:17	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	SELL	3,000	96¢	$2,889	0x012f3e…
09-25 07:37:35	Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	6,510	88¢	$5,753	0xa7b095…
09-25 07:36:29	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	SELL	6,000	96¢	$5,784	0x9af127…
09-24 07:51:08	friedrich merz out as chancellor of germany before october 31 2026	No	BUY	27	93¢	$25	0xe7679c…