Tangible-Loss — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$63

Unrealized P&L

-$7

Hit rate

24.3%

Resolved

191

Trades

572

lifetime

Volume

$2.48K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-14

last 07-02 08:30

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 59 days

Categories

Other

57% 45% -$34

Crypto

16% 0% $0

Sports

15% 53% -$5

Politics

11% 40% -$24

Tech

2% 56% $0

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-07-02).

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (23) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes		+167	$1	0¢	$0	-$1	06-17 10:56
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Yes		+37	$6	0¢	$0	-$6	06-02 07:51

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will deepseek have the best ai model at the end of january 2026	2	$400	200	200	+0	No	$0	01-21 06:11
will google have the best ai model at the end of january 2026	2	$400	202	202	+0	Yes	$0	01-26 07:39
bitcoin above 68k on february 24	2	$380	190	190	+0	No	$0	02-24 05:52
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix?	71	$106	143	143	+0	No	-$2	06-04 10:50
nhl lak cbj 2026 01 26	1	$32	60	0	+60	Kings	-$32	01-26 07:37
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%?	11	$27	17	17	+0	open	—	06-21 11:48
will xauusd reach 4600 in june 2026	9	$24	22	22	+0	No	+$3	06-09 04:29
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?	7	$22	16	16	+0	Yes	-$1	06-19 17:28
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?	8	$21	57	57	+0	No	+$8	06-16 11:09
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	6	$20	17	17	+0	No	+$1	06-04 08:22
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	7	$17	76	76	+0	open	—	06-03 15:50
nba tor por 2026 01 23	1	$16	24	0	+24	Raptors	+$8	01-23 05:13
nba cle cha 2026 01 21	1	$16	28	0	+28	Cavaliers	+$12	01-21 06:09
Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be between 1.75T and 2.00T?	8	$16	54	54	+0	Yes	-$3	06-04 14:00
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	4	$16	24	24	+0	open	—	06-10 01:53
nba por gsw 2026 01 13	1	$15	19	0	+19	Warriors	+$4	01-14 02:54
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027?	5	$15	10	10	+0	open	—	06-28 18:10
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?	4	$15	15	15	+0	Yes	+$8	06-24 21:02
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?	7	$14	29	29	+0	Yes	$0	06-04 08:22
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	3	$14	9	9	+0	No	+$2	06-30 03:15
nhl bos buf 2026 03 25	1	$14	39	0	+39	Bruins	+$25	03-25 08:22
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?	3	$14	8	8	+0	No	+$2	06-30 03:15
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	3	$13	50	50	+0	open	—	07-02 08:28
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	3	$13	8	8	+0	open	—	06-16 10:37
nba nyk cle 2026 02 24	1	$13	32	0	+32	Cavaliers	-$13	02-24 05:47
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	3	$13	9	9	+0	open	—	06-30 03:15
nba playoffs will president trump attend the nba finals	4	$13	9	9	+0	Yes	+$2	06-04 02:11
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	3	$12	9	9	+0	Yes	+$0	06-20 02:49
will wti crude oil wti hit high 115 in june	3	$12	7	7	+0	No	+$1	06-30 03:15
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	3	$12	8	8	+0	Yes	+$0	06-02 05:13

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-02 08:30:22	will mgm resorts be acquired before 2027	No	SELL	5	17¢	$1	0x758d79…
07-02 08:28:49	Will Puffpaw launch a token by March 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	4	43¢	$2	0x4bb1ba…
07-02 08:28:47	will papertrade launch a token by june 30 2027	Yes	SELL	5	88¢	$4	0xb48222…
07-02 08:28:46	Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	9	56¢	$5	0xa22359…
07-02 08:28:44	Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	30	7¢	$2	0xed46a6…
07-02 08:28:43	Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	SELL	50	15¢	$8	0x09decf…
07-02 08:28:41	Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	87	2¢	$2	0xff0e54…
06-30 03:16:26	Meloni out as Prime Minister of Italy by June 30?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x99758b…
06-30 03:16:26	will trump pardon sbf by july 31 20260608235339562	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x05a5f9…
06-30 03:16:25	russia x ukraine ceasefire by june 30 2026 631	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x43709e…
06-30 03:16:23	Will Waymo launch in Denver by June 30 2026?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xdfec9f…
06-30 03:16:22	israel x hezbollah diplomatic meeting by june 30 2026	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xf70866…
06-30 03:16:22	ex cuba leader raul castro in us custody by june 30	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xa92238…
06-30 03:16:20	will donald trump publicly insult jd vance by june 30 2026	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x5ceeb1…
06-30 03:16:19	Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0x0e57a8…
06-30 03:16:17	Will Trump pardon Elon Musk before 2027?	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x6f77fa…
06-30 03:16:17	will meta reach 700 in june 2026	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x49877a…
06-30 03:16:16	Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by June 30?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0xce0700…
06-30 03:16:14	will benjamin netanyahu sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950076	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0xdd1883…
06-30 03:16:14	ebola case in the us by june 30	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x773259…
06-30 03:16:13	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x5306cf…
06-30 03:16:11	will trump speak to reza pahlavi in june	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x4ff54a…
06-30 03:16:10	will xauusd reach 5000 in june 2026	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x80875e…
06-30 03:16:08	New pandemic in 2026?	No	SELL	1	90¢	$1	0xf99606…
06-30 03:16:08	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x3d5bd1…
06-30 03:16:07	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x3e3fc3…
06-30 03:16:05	will nvda reach 256 in june 2026	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xa2518e…
06-30 03:16:04	will wti reach 110 in june 2026 658 257 353	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xa9be68…
06-30 03:16:02	will trump speak to yoon suk yeol in june	No	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0xf2e433…
06-30 03:16:02	will russia capture mala tokmachka by june 30 2026	No	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0xb47231…
06-30 03:16:01	will turkey be a party to the us x iran memorandum of understanding 20260611230522912	No	SELL	3	98¢	$3	0xd378dd…
06-30 03:15:59	NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	3	99¢	$3	0x9678fc…
06-30 03:15:58	Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by June 30?	No	SELL	3	99¢	$3	0xea7265…
06-30 03:15:56	Will Russia invade another country in 2026?	No	SELL	3	92¢	$3	0x182e4e…
06-30 03:15:55	Will Tread launch a token by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	4	99¢	$4	0x9ab3e3…
06-30 03:15:53	Greta Thunberg arrested by June 30?	No	SELL	4	99¢	$4	0x154223…
06-30 03:15:52	Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	SELL	5	61¢	$3	0x8cbc14…
06-30 03:15:50	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x886472…
06-30 03:15:49	Will Trump wear a Yarmulke in 2026?	No	SELL	5	67¢	$3	0x919cfb…
06-30 03:15:47	Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	No	SELL	5	56¢	$3	0xc8024b…
06-30 03:15:46	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	5	59¢	$3	0x3d16ae…
06-30 03:15:44	Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?	No	SELL	5	74¢	$4	0xff2d2c…
06-30 03:15:43	will hyperliquid reach 84 in june	No	SELL	5	97¢	$5	0xe7a3f0…
06-30 03:15:43	will sui reach 1pt80 before 2027	No	SELL	5	56¢	$3	0xa4e781…
06-30 03:15:40	will wti crude oil wti hit high 115 in june	No	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0xf7280a…
06-30 03:15:38	Will HYPE flip SOL by December 31?	No	SELL	7	86¢	$6	0x286a4b…
06-30 03:15:37	Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?	No	SELL	8	99¢	$8	0x6ca5bb…
06-30 03:15:35	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	9	73¢	$7	0xb1e340…
06-30 03:15:34	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	No	SELL	9	85¢	$8	0xf14127…
06-30 03:15:34	Will Apple release a new product line before 2027?	No	SELL	10	57¢	$6	0x99f061…
06-29 01:21:35	iran successfully targets shipping on july 5 20260625225210246	Yes	SELL	11	7¢	$1	0xe19583…
06-29 01:21:35	iran successfully targets shipping on july 6 20260625225210247	Yes	SELL	10	10¢	$1	0xa73c02…
06-28 20:54:37	iran successfully targets shipping on july 5 20260625225210246	Yes	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0x6a94a7…
06-28 20:54:29	iran successfully targets shipping on july 6 20260625225210247	Yes	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x0bdc81…
06-28 20:53:56	iran successfully targets shipping on july 4 20260625225210245	Yes	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0x0b3105…
06-28 18:10:02	U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027?	No	SELL	5	76¢	$4	0x7ceecd…
06-27 22:46:53	Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?	Yes	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0xa698e9…
06-27 20:06:56	Will Oro launch a token by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x7cbe1d…
06-27 19:09:31	Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,200-$4,600 in June?	Yes	BUY	10	13¢	$1	0x3833fa…
06-25 08:14:46	will russia enter stinky by july 31	Yes	BUY	1	31¢	$0	0xe680bb…
06-25 08:14:46	will russia enter stinky by july 31	Yes	BUY	1	31¢	$0	0x1ca854…
06-25 08:14:46	will russia enter stinky by july 31	Yes	BUY	1	31¢	$0	0x10247e…
06-25 08:14:44	will russia enter stinky by july 31	Yes	BUY	1	31¢	$0	0xea185c…
06-25 07:34:01	ebola case in the us by june 30	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x277678…
06-25 02:15:16	Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by June 30?	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0xe2b5c9…
06-25 02:14:50	will turkey be a party to the us x iran memorandum of understanding 20260611230522912	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0x2b3bf4…
06-24 23:35:55	Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	BUY	30	11¢	$3	0x670d6a…
06-24 21:02:28	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?	Yes	SELL	10	79¢	$8	0x97b1b1…
06-24 18:17:11	Mike Johnson out as Speaker by June 30?	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$1	0xcca772…
06-24 18:17:08	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?	Yes	SELL	5	69¢	$3	0x1fd042…
06-24 18:16:49	will openais valuation hit low 600b by june 30	Yes	BUY	427	0¢	$1	0xde31ff…
06-24 15:36:35	Will Mahmoud Abbas be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	SELL	40	1¢	$0	0x716298…
06-24 02:21:08	Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	167	1¢	$1	0x22a5dc…
06-24 00:57:50	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?	Yes	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0x6c859b…
06-23 23:43:40	Will Silver (SI) settle at $60-$70 in June?	Yes	SELL	2	48¢	$1	0x65b1d0…
06-23 21:05:38	Will Silver (SI) settle at $60-$70 in June?	Yes	SELL	3	60¢	$2	0x4d9a4e…
06-22 06:20:08	Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	BUY	20	12¢	$2	0xa4dfcb…
06-22 03:46:02	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by june 26	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x5aeb20…
06-22 01:11:34	will spacexs valuation hit high 4pt0t by june 30	Yes	BUY	167	1¢	$1	0x07762d…
06-21 17:25:47	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	125	1¢	$1	0x5ba42f…
06-21 12:45:25	will germany reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120751	No	SELL	10	21¢	$2	0x9e3dab…
06-21 11:48:13	will israel launch a ground operation in iran by june 30 2026	Yes	BUY	71	1¢	$1	0xf03939…
06-21 11:48:02	Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%?	Yes	SELL	1	78¢	$1	0xd7aa8d…
06-21 11:47:44	Will Hibachi launch a token by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	167	1¢	$1	0x1866c3…
06-21 11:47:43	Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0xd48eb4…
06-21 09:22:52	starmer out by june 22 2026	No	SELL	10	20¢	$2	0xf7b2eb…
06-21 09:13:05	Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%?	Yes	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0x76336e…
06-21 06:35:46	Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%?	Yes	SELL	5	78¢	$4	0x545e0a…
06-21 06:35:41	Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x0e10a1…
06-21 06:35:37	spacex vs tesla higher valuation on june 30	Tesla	BUY	106	1¢	$1	0x7ea797…
06-21 04:52:08	starmer out by june 22 2026	No	BUY	10	40¢	$4	0x458ad0…
06-21 03:58:37	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	3	2¢	$0	0xb1382d…
06-21 03:58:31	Will Mahmoud Abbas be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	BUY	83	1¢	$1	0x4b1cd6…
06-21 03:58:29	Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%?	Yes	BUY	5	79¢	$4	0x5e226f…
06-21 01:22:04	Will Silver (SI) settle at $60-$70 in June?	Yes	BUY	5	60¢	$3	0xf4888c…
06-21 01:22:02	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	2¢	$1	0x49a052…
06-21 01:21:59	will germany reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120751	No	BUY	10	17¢	$2	0xc1877c…
06-21 01:21:55	DOJ reopens Powell investigation by June 30?	Yes	BUY	177	1¢	$1	0xac78a9…
06-21 01:21:50	Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%?	Yes	SELL	4	76¢	$3	0xa50df6…
06-21 01:21:46	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June?	Yes	BUY	10	14¢	$1	0x229532…