Obedient-Fragrance — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$64

Unrealized P&L

-$0

Hit rate

59.9%

Resolved

5,995

Trades

10,001

lifetime

Volume

$17.2K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

4 positions

First seen

2026-03-13

last 06-01 13:24

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 82 days

Categories

Crypto

56% 63% -$13

Other

23% 45% +$23

Sports

13% 47% -$128

Politics

8% 28% +$59

Tech

0% 25% -$3

Pop-Culture

0% 57% -$2

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-06-01).

Open positions (4) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	+0	$0	38¢	$0	$0	06-01 13:07
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	+0	$0	85¢	$0	+$0	06-01 13:08
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	+0	$0	65¢	$0	$0	05-21 00:54
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	No	+0	$0	15¢	$0	$0	06-01 13:12

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open?	3	$147	1,566	1,566	+0	No	+$110	06-01 13:12
Iran closes its airspace by May 27?	11	$95	115	115	+0	No	+$77	05-29 01:36
Will Jakub Mensik win the 2026 Men's French Open?	2	$83	2,129	2,129	+0	No	+$50	06-01 13:12
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	75	$80	307	296	+11	No	-$14	05-30 19:39
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States?	4	$63	1,183	1,183	+0	No	+$54	06-01 13:15
Parma: Susan Bandecchi vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro	26	$50	211	211	+0	Jessica Bouzas Maneiro	-$6	05-14 16:48
Cordoba: Juan Manuel La Serna vs Valerio Aboian	18	$48	38	38	+0	Juan Manuel La Serna	+$3	05-14 16:46
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair between May 15 and May 22?	2	$48	100	100	+0	Yes	+$46	05-18 14:57
Spurs vs. Thunder	13	$45	51	40	+11	Thunder	-$1	05-21 00:05
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?	15	$41	44	44	+0	No	+$8	06-01 13:15
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Mumbai Indians	5	$39	65	65	+0	Kolkata Knight Riders	+$0	05-20 14:49
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	8	$39	37	37	+0	No	+$24	05-22 22:11
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 216.5	4	$38	40	40	+0	Over	-$2	05-21 00:51
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	16	$37	925	925	+0	No	-$2	06-01 13:12
Iran closes its airspace by June 15?	5	$36	50	50	+0	Yes	+$28	06-01 13:13
Chicago White Sox vs. Seattle Mariners	5	$34	29	22	+7	Seattle Mariners	+$5	05-20 22:18
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	29	$34	1,076	178	+898	No	-$23	05-29 20:21
Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays	7	$33	32	28	+4	Tampa Bay Rays	+$1	05-20 19:39
Valorant: FOKUS vs Enterprise Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Group B	3	$33	43	14	+29	FOKUS	-$6	05-20 16:47
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	5	$32	42	42	+0	Yes	+$26	06-01 13:14
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals?	16	$31	117	24	+93	No	-$6	05-31 02:45
XRP Up or Down - May 1, 2PM ET	5	$29	18	18	+0	Down	+$6	05-01 20:08
Valorant: Beşiktaş Esports vs CGN Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Group A	2	$28	19	19	+0	CGN Esports	+$8	05-20 20:19
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 21?	2	$28	18	18	+0	Up	+$7	05-21 19:50
Valencia: Damir Dzumhur vs Jaume Munar	15	$26	48	14	+34	Jaume Munar	+$1	05-14 16:08
Hamburg European Open: Tommy Paul vs Tomas Etcheverry	5	$26	21	19	+2	Tommy Paul	+$3	05-20 13:57
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?	20	$26	74	3	+71	No	-$24	05-31 02:12
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	20	$25	95	95	+0	No	-$6	06-01 13:12
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	9	$25	16	16	+0	No	$0	05-14 03:53
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election	10	$25	16	16	+0	Yes	$0	05-18 19:29

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-01 13:24:40	Will Choo Mi-ae win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election?	No	SELL	2	1¢	$0	0xab80cc…
06-01 13:24:36	Will SpaceX's public ticker be $X?	Yes	SELL	4	0¢	$0	0x33bf00…
06-01 13:24:29	Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?	Yes	SELL	4	2¢	$0	0xe6e062…
06-01 13:24:24	Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	0	29¢	$0	0x50b381…
06-01 13:17:43	Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	SELL	0	36¢	$0	0xd93f94…
06-01 13:17:41	Will United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	No	SELL	1	4¢	$0	0x3daa3c…
06-01 13:17:38	Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	0	8¢	$0	0xa722c0…
06-01 13:17:34	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	Yes	SELL	1	3¢	$0	0x41268e…
06-01 13:17:24	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	SELL	2	0¢	$0	0x4e7625…
06-01 13:16:37	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another country?	Yes	SELL	9	1¢	$0	0x2fb17f…
06-01 13:16:35	Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	8¢	$0	0x270674…
06-01 13:16:31	Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open?	Yes	SELL	1	9¢	$0	0xbfa1aa…
06-01 13:16:30	Will Éric Duhaime be the next Premier of Quebec following the 2026 Quebec general election?	Yes	SELL	14	0¢	$0	0x953d83…
06-01 13:16:26	Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship?	Yes	SELL	2	7¢	$0	0x56a001…
06-01 13:16:23	Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	Yes	SELL	3	5¢	$0	0xc62638…
06-01 13:16:19	Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	3	6¢	$0	0x936699…
06-01 13:16:16	Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	46¢	$0	0xf52808…
06-01 13:16:12	Will the Democratic Party of Korea (DP) win the 2026 South Korean local elections?	No	SELL	13	1¢	$0	0x866458…
06-01 13:16:09	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	2	8¢	$0	0xea8943…
06-01 13:16:05	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?	Yes	SELL	7	2¢	$0	0x9eabd4…
06-01 13:16:02	Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	Yes	SELL	1	41¢	$0	0x306c14…
06-01 13:15:58	Will Mike Collins be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia?	No	SELL	2	11¢	$0	0x7cde00…
06-01 13:15:55	Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship?	Yes	SELL	8	3¢	$0	0x2a4136…
06-01 13:15:51	Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Yes	SELL	5	5¢	$0	0x9cecad…
06-01 13:15:48	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States?	Yes	SELL	69	1¢	$0	0x76001c…
06-01 13:15:44	Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026?	Yes	SELL	41	1¢	$0	0xfecb88…
06-01 13:15:44	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	3	12¢	$0	0xaa9ab1…
06-01 13:15:39	Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship?	Yes	SELL	10	4¢	$0	0xac62aa…
06-01 13:15:37	Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?	No	SELL	21	1¢	$0	0xfa2131…
06-01 13:15:35	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	2	24¢	$0	0x00ab8b…
06-01 13:15:32	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	SELL	16	3¢	$0	0xb89700…
06-01 13:15:30	Trump out as President by June 30?	Yes	SELL	56	1¢	$1	0x850582…
06-01 13:15:25	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	3	22¢	$1	0x72d6e2…
06-01 13:15:11	Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	9¢	$0	0x5860fc…
06-01 13:15:07	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Austria?	Yes	SELL	61	1¢	$1	0xb5e2c4…
06-01 13:15:02	Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30?	Yes	SELL	2	30¢	$1	0xb7aaa9…
06-01 13:15:02	Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	SELL	2	36¢	$1	0x169065…
06-01 13:15:00	Will Jose Mourinho be appointed as manager of Real Madrid?	No	SELL	20	3¢	$1	0xe0863e…
06-01 13:14:57	Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?	Yes	SELL	4	18¢	$1	0x0c7614…
06-01 13:14:55	Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7?	Yes	SELL	5	14¢	$1	0xb3cdb0…
06-01 13:14:52	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?	Yes	SELL	2	17¢	$0	0xc7b940…
06-01 13:14:52	Clavicular sentenced to prison?	Yes	SELL	6	15¢	$1	0x67bab8…
06-01 13:14:46	Will Donald Trump attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?	Yes	SELL	13	6¢	$1	0xd520e7…
06-01 13:14:43	US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	2	46¢	$1	0xe9a910…
06-01 13:14:41	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	Yes	SELL	2	53¢	$1	0xa26c59…
06-01 13:14:39	Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	7	16¢	$1	0x871764…
06-01 13:14:36	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?	Yes	SELL	2	56¢	$1	0xd69482…
06-01 13:14:32	Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	12	8¢	$1	0xcffd78…
06-01 13:14:32	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	No	SELL	2	77¢	$1	0x6375c5…
06-01 13:14:29	Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	60¢	$1	0x535513…
06-01 13:14:25	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	2	61¢	$1	0x35f2e8…
06-01 13:14:24	Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 30?	Yes	SELL	13	9¢	$1	0x0baaf5…
06-01 13:14:22	Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to between 40 and 60 years in prison?	Yes	SELL	8	3¢	$0	0xcef501…
06-01 13:14:20	Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?	Yes	SELL	8	15¢	$1	0x14a4f9…
06-01 13:14:17	Will Marco Rubio attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?	Yes	SELL	10	11¢	$1	0xcad2dd…
06-01 13:14:15	Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	9	14¢	$1	0x2621fc…
06-01 13:14:10	Will Norway win on 2026-06-01?	No	SELL	3	44¢	$1	0xfb5fb2…
06-01 13:14:10	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	3	40¢	$1	0x84b69b…
06-01 13:14:03	Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	5	27¢	$1	0xf3f2b8…
06-01 13:13:59	Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to at least 60 years in prison?	Yes	SELL	4	24¢	$1	0xcb3098…
06-01 13:13:59	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	No	SELL	3	45¢	$1	0x091ecb…
06-01 13:13:56	Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	SELL	2	69¢	$1	0x0fd310…
06-01 13:13:52	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?	Yes	SELL	2	72¢	$1	0xed8293…
06-01 13:13:49	Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?	Yes	SELL	2	41¢	$1	0xa9a493…
06-01 13:13:43	Will Trump endorse John Cornyn for TX-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET?	Yes	SELL	45	3¢	$1	0x6b398f…
06-01 13:13:42	Iran closes its airspace by June 15?	Yes	SELL	10	17¢	$2	0x2ee1cd…
06-01 13:13:38	Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?	No	SELL	48	1¢	$1	0xc12fa4…
06-01 13:13:35	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	SELL	3	52¢	$2	0xd6d1f7…
06-01 13:13:33	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	2	81¢	$2	0xad87b5…
06-01 13:13:29	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	No	SELL	2	82¢	$2	0xc4b258…
06-01 13:13:29	Israel closes its airspace by June 15?	Yes	SELL	5	9¢	$0	0x42f8d6…
06-01 13:13:28	UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card)	Ilia Topuria	SELL	2	83¢	$2	0x4baa4b…
06-01 13:13:24	Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	32	5¢	$2	0xc1cd59…
06-01 13:13:21	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	2	90¢	$2	0xf1d6a7…
06-01 13:13:19	Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	13	5¢	$1	0x23f59b…
06-01 13:13:14	Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?	Yes	SELL	52	3¢	$1	0x394cfa…
06-01 13:13:10	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?	No	SELL	3	81¢	$3	0xcf6790…
06-01 13:13:10	Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	SELL	2	80¢	$2	0xa5ec01…
06-01 13:13:07	Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	SELL	6	46¢	$3	0xe981df…
06-01 13:13:03	Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30?	No	SELL	5	63¢	$3	0xb0f035…
06-01 13:13:00	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	2	93¢	$2	0x2fb9ba…
06-01 13:12:58	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	Yes	SELL	9	35¢	$3	0xcd49ae…
06-01 13:12:53	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	65	6¢	$4	0x7d4ed5…
06-01 13:12:51	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	2	93¢	$2	0x37dc87…
06-01 13:12:49	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House	Yes	SELL	12	34¢	$4	0xf2becb…
06-01 13:12:47	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	Yes	SELL	79	5¢	$4	0xe772fa…
06-01 13:12:44	Will Nithya Raman finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	SELL	102	7¢	$7	0x7f49d7…
06-01 13:12:40	US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	Yes	SELL	2	71¢	$1	0xf12ba3…
06-01 13:12:39	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	SELL	12	75¢	$9	0x4474dd…
06-01 13:12:35	Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	SELL	23	64¢	$14	0x18beac…
06-01 13:12:30	Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	Yes	SELL	896	2¢	$17	0xdf3262…
06-01 13:12:30	Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	No	SELL	4	28¢	$1	0x151477…
06-01 13:12:25	Will Jakub Mensik win the 2026 Men's French Open?	Yes	SELL	2,129	3¢	$67	0xb2253c…
06-01 13:12:21	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	7	6¢	$0	0xc35ac4…
06-01 13:12:19	Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open?	Yes	SELL	657	18¢	$117	0x843353…
06-01 13:12:11	Iran leadership change by June 30?	Yes	SELL	10	4¢	$0	0xd4c5fd…
06-01 13:12:00	Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	SELL	11	36¢	$4	0x4cea60…
06-01 13:11:46	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	6¢	$1	0x307cbd…
06-01 13:11:36	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	SELL	8	12¢	$1	0x0a77c8…
06-01 13:11:25	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	4	28¢	$1	0xaa64d9…