Gaseous-Valley — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$8

Unrealized P&L

+$0

Hit rate

53.5%

Resolved

Trades

220

lifetime

Volume

$1.62K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$55

4 positions

First seen

2026-01-30

last 06-12 20:04

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Politics

42% 0% $-10

Other

41% 100% +$2

Crypto

7% 100% +$0

Sports

7% — —

Tech

2% — —

Pop-Culture

2% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

17 active days in 12wk • peak 10 trades/day

Open positions (4) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	+24	$20	82¢	$20	+$0	06-12 17:03
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	+17	$15	86¢	$15	$-0	06-12 15:19
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	No	+15	$10	70¢	$10	+$0	06-12 15:41
Netanyahu out by June 30?	No	+10	$10	99¢	$10	+$0	06-12 15:49

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	2	$55	57	+57	open	—	04-07 01:32
us x iran ceasefire by march 2	3	$40	43	+43	open	—	03-02 02:23
mwoh swe lat 2026 02 17	1	$23	23	+23	open	—	02-17 21:47
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	1	$20	24	+24	open	—	06-12 17:03
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	2	$20	26	+26	open	—	04-03 13:21
miguel daz canel out as leader of cuba by march 31 971 121	2	$20	22	+22	open	—	03-19 18:26
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	2	$20	23	+23	open	—	04-03 13:18
Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished?	2	$18	21	+21	open	—	03-02 03:36
Major US official out by May 31?	1	$15	23	+23	open	—	05-01 02:47
will annual inflation increase by 3pt4 in march	1	$15	24	+24	open	—	04-02 20:37
Will no one leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?	1	$15	17	+17	open	—	02-02 15:53
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?	1	$15	19	+19	open	—	04-07 01:31
us x iran ceasefire by march 6	2	$15	18	+18	open	—	03-02 02:24
will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	1	$15	19	+19	open	—	03-03 14:50
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	1	$15	17	+17	open	—	06-12 15:19
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	2	$15	16	+16	open	—	05-03 23:27
us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	2	$15	16	+16	open	—	01-31 13:23
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	2	$15	21	+21	open	—	03-02 02:26
will there be 20 or more inches of snow in nyc this weekend	2	$15	23	+23	open	—	02-23 14:15
trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 15th 962 364 677	1	$15	17	+17	open	—	04-03 13:34
will crude oil cl hit high 95 by end of march 851	1	$15	17	+17	open	—	03-12 02:21
will there be at least 1450 measles cases in the us by march 31 2026	1	$15	15	+15	open	—	03-10 18:10
US strike on Cuba by March 31?	2	$15	16	+16	open	—	03-01 15:42
will israel strike gaza on march 6 2026	1	$15	15	+15	open	—	03-08 01:40
Will Trump talk to Elon Musk in April?	1	$15	15	+15	open	—	05-01 02:55
Will Wesley Hunt win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	1	$15	15	+15	open	—	03-03 14:54
Will the US strike Cuba next?	1	$14	14	+14	open	—	03-01 04:18
mwoh usa ger 2026 02 15	1	$12	12	+12	open	—	02-15 21:19
will israel strike gaza on march 5 2026	1	$12	12	+12	open	—	03-06 01:59
US strikes Iran by March 10, 2026?	2	$10	22	+22	open	—	02-28 01:13

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-13 03:07:09	btc updown 5m 1781319900	Up	BUY	7	70¢	$5	0xa58361…
06-12 20:04:07	will spacexs valuation hit high 3pt0t by june 30	No	BUY	6	90¢	$5	0x8bb6cd…
06-12 19:58:07	fifwc can bih 2026 06 12 total 4pt5	Under	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0xb64ad5…
06-12 17:03:28	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	24	82¢	$20	0xbc8ee4…
06-12 15:56:27	israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 15 2026	No	BUY	10	95¢	$10	0x2f4b4c…
06-12 15:49:10	Netanyahu out by June 30?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x862722…
06-12 15:48:30	next mythos class model released by september 30 2026	Yes	BUY	14	70¢	$10	0x6f15e0…
06-12 15:41:09	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	15	68¢	$10	0x4a731c…
06-12 15:19:04	Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	17	87¢	$15	0x43e607…
06-12 15:15:58	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T?	Yes	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0x2933ad…
06-12 15:14:52	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T	No	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0xe6f31c…
05-18 21:23:08	Will Trump be photographed every day this week? (5/11-5/17)	No	BUY	6	98¢	$6	0x9f49c8…
05-15 21:16:08	US federally charges ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro?	No	BUY	17	30¢	$5	0x9b6938…
05-12 22:38:03	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	6	84¢	$5	0xd909e0…
05-09 01:26:13	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?	Yes	BUY	9	75¢	$6	0xee5c34…
05-06 01:51:24	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 8?	No	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x88cccc…
05-06 01:49:26	Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	No	BUY	14	69¢	$10	0xcc1818…
05-03 23:27:08	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0x210a30…
05-01 02:55:52	Will Trump talk to Elon Musk in April?	No	BUY	15	99¢	$15	0x513f8a…
05-01 02:53:24	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	11	92¢	$10	0xd761af…
05-01 02:52:30	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	Yes	BUY	6	84¢	$5	0xf403f0…
05-01 02:51:32	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x5af715…
05-01 02:47:26	Major US official out by May 31?	Yes	BUY	23	64¢	$15	0x58b4ff…
05-01 02:34:48	Epstein suicide note released by May 8?	No	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0xffb6e6…
05-01 02:32:10	Will USD reach 1.8M Iranian rials by April 30?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xb1cb49…
05-01 02:25:22	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	No	BUY	11	95¢	$10	0xacdabb…
05-01 02:22:08	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	11	94¢	$10	0xd65634…
05-01 02:21:30	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May?	No	BUY	11	93¢	$10	0x762a57…
04-12 02:54:21	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in April?	No	BUY	6	78¢	$5	0x84ab28…
04-12 02:51:53	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?	Yes	BUY	20	49¢	$10	0xac54b5…
04-12 02:51:45	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April?	Yes	BUY	15	66¢	$10	0x17c131…
04-12 02:50:43	Will Iran strike Qatar by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	21	24¢	$5	0x150ae7…
04-12 01:35:39	will the dhs shutdown last 60 days or more 988 872 151 791 415 422	Yes	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x8e4837…
04-12 01:32:23	will choosin texas ella langley be the 1 song on us spotify this week 572	Yes	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0xbf60b1…
04-12 01:29:43	Will any E.U. country strike Iran by April 30?	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x35dcad…
04-12 01:26:37	Will the Netherlands send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x67449c…
04-07 01:34:17	Iran leadership change by April 30?	No	BUY	6	90¢	$5	0x8030f7…
04-07 01:33:19	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	No	BUY	11	94¢	$10	0x7d93cd…
04-07 01:32:11	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	No	BUY	51	97¢	$50	0x3fae68…
04-07 01:31:19	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?	Yes	BUY	19	77¢	$15	0x6f314b…
04-03 13:34:13	trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 15th 962 364 677	No	BUY	17	90¢	$15	0x7e0cc2…
04-03 13:21:05	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Yes	BUY	18	82¢	$15	0xc79b66…
04-03 13:18:09	us x iran ceasefire by april 15	No	BUY	16	95¢	$15	0x21232f…
04-02 20:37:47	will annual inflation increase by 3pt4 in march	No	BUY	24	62¢	$15	0x391a14…
03-30 18:57:19	will russia enter ternuvate again by march 31	No	BUY	4	99¢	$4	0x5540c3…
03-27 01:53:15	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Yes	BUY	8	63¢	$5	0xd47581…
03-27 01:48:05	will the us tariff rate on china be between 5 and 15 on march 31	Yes	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x316a69…
03-27 01:44:59	us x iran ceasefire by april 15	No	BUY	7	72¢	$5	0x6fafc5…
03-27 01:44:33	us x iran ceasefire by april 7	No	BUY	6	84¢	$5	0x919c76…
03-24 20:15:51	us x iran ceasefire by march 31	No	BUY	7	83¢	$5	0x020eb9…
03-21 21:47:59	will turkey strike iran by march 31	No	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0xcb2cca…
03-21 21:45:43	bitcoin above 78k on march 26	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x35ec27…
03-21 21:41:47	will project hail mary opening weekend box office be between 85m and 90m	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x71dcdf…
03-21 21:38:33	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by April 30?	No	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0x06a939…
03-21 21:37:05	us escorts commercial ship through hormuz by march 31	No	BUY	6	88¢	$5	0xe8f274…
03-19 18:31:29	bitcoin above 76k on march 20	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xf3de7f…
03-19 18:26:29	miguel daz canel out as leader of cuba by march 31 971 121	No	BUY	11	92¢	$10	0x946d72…
03-18 20:09:13	bitcoin above 80k on march 21	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xe0c4e7…
03-18 02:41:53	will trump say greenland during taoiseach events	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x0f13d4…
03-18 02:40:25	will trump say ayatollah during taoiseach events	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xdd1104…
03-17 23:53:21	will trump say six seven during taoiseach events	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x193af1…
03-17 23:11:39	will crude oil cl hit low 65 by end of march 687 631 179 583 222 896 946 953 469 231 749	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x495520…
03-17 23:03:49	highest temperature in london on march 21 2026 10c	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x068573…
03-17 22:33:41	military action against iran continues through march 31 2026	Yes	BUY	11	92¢	$10	0xa36781…
03-17 22:00:39	miguel daz canel out as leader of cuba by march 31 971 121	No	BUY	11	88¢	$10	0xe26877…
03-16 01:01:01	will wagner moura win best actor at the 98th academy awards	No	BUY	3	95¢	$3	0x71ecfd…
03-16 00:59:13	will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	Yes	BUY	6	86¢	$5	0xcb5721…
03-16 00:32:59	will frankenstein win exactly 5 awards at the oscars	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x8393b6…
03-15 23:26:51	will hamnet win best picture at the 98th academy awards	No	BUY	7	98¢	$7	0x99d959…
03-15 04:02:27	will 80 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day in march	No	BUY	6	88¢	$5	0x5979c5…
03-12 02:21:09	will crude oil cl hit high 95 by end of march 851	Yes	BUY	17	90¢	$15	0x8f1dc0…
03-10 18:10:31	will there be at least 1450 measles cases in the us by march 31 2026	Yes	BUY	15	98¢	$15	0x3ce576…
03-10 17:56:33	will any european country expel an israeli ambassador by march 31	No	BUY	6	90¢	$5	0x5cda22…
03-10 15:46:35	us x iran ceasefire by march 15	No	BUY	11	94¢	$10	0xe10785…
03-10 15:17:03	will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	Yes	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0xc829ca…
03-09 20:14:05	will hezbollah disarm by march 31	No	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0xc4f469…
03-08 01:42:31	bitcoin above 70k on march 8	No	BUY	6	97¢	$6	0x39532d…
03-08 01:40:01	will israel strike gaza on march 6 2026	No	BUY	15	99¢	$15	0x724859…
03-06 01:59:09	will israel strike gaza on march 5 2026	No	BUY	12	99¢	$12	0xf5e9fd…
03-05 15:01:15	Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	Yes	BUY	6	83¢	$5	0x7e7e8b…
03-05 14:42:09	will bitcoin reach 90k in march 2026	No	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0x4fb6d6…
03-05 14:40:45	will bitcoin reach 80k march 2 8	No	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0x24fb4e…
03-05 14:31:15	bitcoin above 74k on march 5	No	BUY	6	89¢	$5	0x6bc4f0…
03-05 14:17:27	will elon musks net worth be at least 710b on march 31	No	BUY	6	82¢	$5	0xc414c4…
03-03 23:45:37	will us or israel strike iran on march 7 2026	Yes	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x3ab832…
03-03 23:45:21	will us or israel strike iran on march 5 2026	Yes	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x15b06a…
03-03 14:54:15	Will Wesley Hunt win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x3019b2…
03-03 14:50:19	will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	Yes	BUY	19	81¢	$15	0xd6b283…
03-03 14:40:49	will iran strike turkey in march	No	BUY	11	92¢	$10	0xcfb10d…
03-03 14:24:51	will reza pahlavi enter iran by march 31 282	No	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0xa28453…
03-03 01:10:09	will us or israel strike iran on march 3 2026	Yes	BUY	6	99¢	$6	0xebdedc…
03-02 03:36:55	Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished?	No	BUY	4	81¢	$3	0x5d30b5…
03-02 02:26:33	will the iranian regime fall by march 31	No	BUY	13	75¢	$10	0xeee739…
03-02 02:24:09	us x iran ceasefire by march 6	No	BUY	11	89¢	$10	0x8b7369…
03-02 02:23:25	us x iran ceasefire by march 2	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0xab4010…
03-01 19:18:29	will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on march 31 323	Yes	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0x311445…
03-01 18:52:05	will germany strike iran by march 31	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xf2e73d…
03-01 18:51:23	will france strike iran by march 31	No	BUY	6	85¢	$5	0xa6d255…
03-01 18:47:19	will there be between 10 and 13 us strikes on somalia in february 2026	Yes	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0x372e9b…
03-01 15:42:13	US strike on Cuba by March 31?	No	BUY	11	90¢	$10	0xbbfda3…