Realized P&L
+$35
Unrealized P&L
-$22
Hit rate
58.6%
Resolved
82
Trades
1,822
lifetime
Volume
$5.18K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$3
Open exposure
$132
30 positions
First seen
2026-05-23
last 10-19 23:28
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 36 days
Categories
Other
53% 36% +$40
Politics
32% 43% -$22
Tech
9% 50% +$11
Crypto
3% 100% +$7
Pop-Culture
2% — —
Sports
1% — —
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
69 active days in 12wk • peak 25 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31? Yes +14 $11 96¢ $13 +$3 05-27 23:12
will anthropics valuation hit high 1pt75t by december 31 328 Yes +15 $31 84¢ $13 -$19 07-17 00:29
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? Yes +38 $11 24¢ $9 -$2 09-18 01:30
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes +12 $4 54¢ $7 +$2 09-19 00:07
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? Yes +6 $5 96¢ $6 +$0 09-13 12:52
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? Yes +8 $7 72¢ $6 -$1 09-28 07:36
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? Yes +6 $4 94¢ $6 +$2 09-11 15:15
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026? Yes +24 $9 22¢ $5 -$4 10-07 12:58
Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026? Yes +24 $3 22¢ $5 +$2 10-15 12:16
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes +6 $4 86¢ $5 +$1 05-27 06:31
another fed rate hike in 2026 Yes +6 $5 76¢ $5 -$1 10-16 19:51
Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election? Yes +7 $5 64¢ $5 -$1 10-08 13:59
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2026? Yes +6 $3 71¢ $4 +$1 10-14 12:40
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? Yes +4 $4 94¢ $4 +$0 10-15 16:53
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes +6 $3 66¢ $4 +$1 09-15 18:15
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes +6 $4 64¢ $4 $0 09-17 22:29
Will Real Madrid win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship? Yes +18 $5 22¢ $4 -$1 09-20 15:33
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes +24 $3 16¢ $4 +$0 10-19 00:32
Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? Yes +14 $2 24¢ $3 +$1 09-28 06:55
Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election? Yes +9 $3 36¢ $3 $0 10-08 11:26
next white house press secretary announced by december 31 2026 Yes +5 $4 64¢ $3 -$1 10-18 00:09
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? Yes +16 $3 18¢ $3 -$1 10-16 16:27
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes +14 $3 18¢ $3 $0 10-14 06:39
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027? Yes +18 $4 13¢ $2 -$2 09-05 21:17
Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends? Yes +18 $5 8¢ $2 -$3 09-16 22:18
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes +2 $1 96¢ $1 +$1 07-30 16:01
GTA 6 launch postponed again? Yes +24 $2 6¢ $1 -$1 06-25 14:00
Will Louisiana enact a data center moratorium by June 30, 2027? Yes +10 $1 12¢ $1 $0 10-03 05:01
Will Liverpool win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship? Yes +14 $0 7¢ $1 +$1 10-14 14:32
Will Trump meet with Nick Fuentes in 2026? Yes +24 $1 4¢ $1 $0 06-30 12:29