(anonymous) 0x2ce952…f55fc6
cold
← all wallets
Realized P&L
-$1.70K
Unrealized P&L
-$154
Hit rate
58.4%
Resolved
39
Trades
359
lifetime
Volume
$25.2K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$70
Open exposure
$4.21K
30 positions
First seen
2026-09-08
last 10-26 17:26
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 17 days
Categories
Politics
71% 71% -$1,239
Other
25% 71% +$196
Tech
4% 0% -$660
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
49 active days in 12wk • peak 32 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? Yes +614 $364 68¢ $418 +$54 10-02 14:55
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? Yes +451 $418 92¢ $417 -$1 10-26 17:26
Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026? Yes +462 $384 67¢ $308 -$76 09-27 22:35
Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026? No +627 $211 38¢ $238 +$28 10-06 20:09
Will the Democrats win the Nevada governor race in 2026? Yes +336 $193 68¢ $230 +$37 10-21 14:25
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? Yes +243 $231 93¢ $226 -$5 10-26 13:45
another fed rate hike in 2026 No +869 $203 24¢ $204 +$1 10-16 03:57
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? Yes +204 $173 86¢ $176 +$3 10-08 16:19
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? No +443 $164 38¢ $166 +$2 10-03 22:09
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 27? Yes +167 $160 97¢ $162 +$2 10-26 02:36
Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? Yes +225 $158 70¢ $157 -$1 10-22 08:08
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? Yes +386 $156 39¢ $151 -$6 10-18 09:26
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Yes +421 $211 35¢ $147 -$64 10-25 17:53
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House Yes +551 $159 26¢ $146 -$13 10-21 01:09
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes +232 $136 55¢ $128 -$8 10-09 15:00
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15? Yes +223 $136 50¢ $110 -$26 10-13 05:59
Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026? No +398 $119 28¢ $109 -$10 10-21 12:36
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House No +253 $94 34¢ $87 -$6 10-21 10:00
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No +157 $93 56¢ $87 -$6 10-10 02:41
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? Yes +111 $85 72¢ $81 -$5 09-22 08:34
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31? No +82 $67 84¢ $69 +$2 10-11 18:43
US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms? No +383 $89 18¢ $67 -$22 10-19 01:25
Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026? Yes +229 $70 28¢ $63 -$7 10-06 20:14
Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026? Yes +314 $66 18¢ $55 -$11 10-21 12:34
Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026? Yes +240 $36 22¢ $53 +$17 10-04 12:41
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? Yes +83 $61 55¢ $45 -$15 09-22 15:35
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes +55 $30 66¢ $36 +$6 09-15 14:36
Iran leadership change by December 31? Yes +234 $28 15¢ $34 +$6 10-09 19:01
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? Yes +310 $43 8¢ $23 -$20 10-20 15:37
Russia military action against an EU country by December 31, 2026? Yes +227 $30 8¢ $19 -$10 10-21 01:06