Realized P&L
+$0
Unrealized P&L
-$3
Hit rate
84.2%
Resolved
20
Trades
289
lifetime
Volume
$1.01K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$3
Open exposure
$19
8 positions
First seen
2026-05-09
last 06-13 17:36
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 5 days
Categories
Crypto
59% 74% +$1
Politics
28% 0% $-1
Other
7%
Tech
4%
Sports
1%
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
21 active days in 12wk • peak 56 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027? Yes +9 $8 84¢ $7 $-1 06-13 06:16
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes +21 $4 24¢ $5 +$1 06-13 20:10
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No +7 $5 50¢ $3 $-2 06-01 11:50
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Yes +1 $1 82¢ $1 +$0 06-11 22:50
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Yes +45 $1 $1 $-0 06-11 18:47
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 55% on Humanity’s Last Exam? Yes +7 $1 $1 $-0 06-12 14:36
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam? Yes +3 $1 22¢ $1 $-0 06-12 14:36
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam? Yes +1 $1 38¢ $0 $-1 06-08 07:12