Thoughtful-Behest — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$0

Unrealized P&L

-$1

Hit rate

84.2%

Resolved

Trades

445

lifetime

Volume

$1.38K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-05-09

last 06-27 13:29

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 5 days

Categories

Crypto

56% 74% +$1

Politics

30% 0% $-1

Other

7% — —

Tech

6% — —

Sports

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

31 active days in 12wk • peak 88 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (6) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?	Yes		+9	$8	86¢	$7	$-1	06-13 06:16

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET	10	$65	60	60	+0	Up	+$5	05-10 04:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET	8	$59	68	60	+8	Down	+$8	05-10 01:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET	8	$54	53	53	+0	Up	+$4	05-10 04:26
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET	9	$51	42	27	+15	open	—	05-18 23:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET	5	$47	66	10	+56	Down	$-33	05-10 03:53
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET	8	$45	47	37	+11	open	—	05-18 22:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET	7	$38	64	16	+48	open	—	05-18 23:14
israel closes its airspace by june 8	6	$33	29	29	+0	open	—	06-08 13:08
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET	6	$32	29	29	+0	Down	+$2	05-13 05:14
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	7	$28	58	58	+0	open	—	06-16 14:22
israel closes its airspace by june 9	6	$25	23	23	+0	open	—	06-08 13:08
will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	3	$23	14	14	+0	open	—	06-19 18:35
Aliens.gov confirmed immigration website?	3	$21	41	0	+41	open	—	05-13 05:08
will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 15 20260613193829177	2	$20	11	11	+0	open	—	06-16 01:11
Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch?	2	$20	15	15	+0	open	—	06-27 13:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET	3	$18	21	13	+8	Up	+$7	05-10 03:49
will trump agree to iranian enrichment of uranium by june 30	4	$17	17	17	+0	open	—	06-15 14:57
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	3	$16	20	9	+12	open	—	05-26 20:56
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET	3	$16	19	9	+10	open	—	05-18 23:32
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET	4	$16	18	7	+11	open	—	05-18 23:47
israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	4	$15	19	19	+0	open	—	06-09 12:29
us and iran sign an agreement by june 15 2026 20260611221049851	2	$15	8	8	+0	open	—	06-15 15:13
btc updown 5m 1781417400	9	$14	12	4	+8	open	—	06-14 06:15
will a claude mythos model be released by june 22 2026 656	2	$14	8	8	+0	open	—	06-09 13:48
btc updown 15m 1781095500	6	$14	14	14	+0	open	—	06-10 12:50
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 7 265 824 655 577 216	1	$14	0	14	-14	open	—	06-07 20:16
will claude 5 be released by june 12 2026	2	$14	9	9	+0	open	—	06-09 12:31
iran closes its airspace by june 8	2	$14	9	9	+0	open	—	06-08 05:50
iran closes its airspace by june 15	2	$13	8	8	+0	open	—	06-08 05:50
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	2	$12	8	8	+0	open	—	06-20 13:35

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-27 13:29:10	Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	15	69¢	$10	0xe836e3…
06-22 12:13:17	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345	No	BUY	3	60¢	$2	0x527e8b…
06-22 12:11:59	Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	15	67¢	$10	0x0ab9c5…
06-22 12:10:34	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 26	No	BUY	7	75¢	$5	0x086124…
06-22 12:10:25	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 22 20260613193829178 738 167 332 255	No	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x77e682…
06-21 22:19:50	Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by June 30?	Yes	SELL	2	9¢	$0	0x8a3e70…
06-20 13:35:22	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	8	90¢	$7	0xd9ed23…
06-20 03:07:04	Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by June 30?	Yes	BUY	2	90¢	$2	0xcb4bf6…
06-20 00:30:16	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?	Yes	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0xf07294…
06-20 00:29:07	will russia capture kostyantynivka by july 31	Yes	BUY	1	67¢	$1	0x780ad2…
06-19 18:38:07	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 436	Yes	BUY	6	84¢	$5	0xf1609d…
06-19 18:37:25	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	62¢	$5	0xaba9b7…
06-19 18:35:59	will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	Yes	SELL	14	100¢	$14	0x2126a7…
06-18 19:35:41	will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	Yes	BUY	7	56¢	$4	0xfe57db…
06-18 19:35:16	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	5	87¢	$4	0x99bbb1…
06-18 01:55:37	will trump agree to withdraw troops from the iranian region by june 30	Yes	BUY	6	78¢	$5	0xfc3fd1…
06-17 12:40:31	bitcoin above 62k on june 23 2026	Yes	BUY	1	86¢	$1	0x46006e…
06-17 12:33:43	will usa reach the round of 16 at the 2026 fifa world cup 20260602025120747	Yes	BUY	1	67¢	$1	0xe001d0…
06-16 16:29:59	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 18	No	BUY	2	84¢	$2	0xc32270…
06-16 16:28:41	will spacexs valuation hit low 1pt5t by june 30	No	SELL	2	93¢	$2	0x24116c…
06-16 16:27:19	spacex ipo closing price updown end of first month 20260608182738233	Up	BUY	2	89¢	$2	0xcb669a…
06-16 16:23:55	btc updown 15m 1781626500	Up	SELL	2	65¢	$1	0x9bcafb…
06-16 16:23:16	btc updown 15m 1781626500	Down	SELL	2	56¢	$1	0xbc95fe…
06-16 16:22:26	btc updown 15m 1781626500	Down	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0xa1cfec…
06-16 16:22:07	btc updown 15m 1781626500	Up	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0x5f214f…
06-16 16:21:29	btc updown 5m 1781626800	Up	SELL	2	73¢	$1	0x95fe17…
06-16 16:20:26	btc updown 5m 1781626800	Up	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0x95581a…
06-16 14:43:38	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 16	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x5ebb76…
06-16 14:43:14	Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	Yes	SELL	45	2¢	$1	0xa0d820…
06-16 14:36:02	btc updown 5m 1781620500	Down	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0xcb5762…
06-16 14:31:59	btc updown 5m 1781620200	Down	SELL	2	77¢	$2	0x9d299f…
06-16 14:30:25	btc updown 5m 1781620200	Down	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x3606f4…
06-16 14:29:55	btc updown 5m 1781619900	Down	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x98186f…
06-16 14:29:32	btc updown 5m 1781619900	Down	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x0e9e94…
06-16 14:29:20	btc updown 5m 1781619900	Down	SELL	1	81¢	$1	0x287e0e…
06-16 14:29:08	btc updown 5m 1781619900	Down	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0xab0fa8…
06-16 14:22:35	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	5	88¢	$4	0x1536e3…
06-16 14:22:02	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	20	16¢	$3	0x9b54c0…
06-16 13:41:17	Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?	Yes	SELL	1	25¢	$0	0xd36785…
06-16 13:41:11	Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 55% on Humanity’s Last Exam?	Yes	SELL	7	2¢	$0	0x959bdc…
06-16 13:41:07	Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam?	Yes	SELL	3	19¢	$1	0xb176e0…
06-16 13:40:56	next mythos class model released by august 31 2026	Yes	SELL	2	40¢	$1	0x44d333…
06-16 13:40:34	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 16	No	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0xcbcd59…
06-16 01:11:06	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 15 20260613193829177	No	SELL	11	97¢	$10	0x71d695…
06-15 23:56:03	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 22 20260613193829178 738 167 332 255	Yes	SELL	2	56¢	$1	0xab549a…
06-15 23:55:28	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 16	No	BUY	1	88¢	$1	0x04f5d0…
06-15 22:36:00	will spacexs valuation hit low 1pt5t by june 30	No	BUY	2	87¢	$2	0x5ef838…
06-15 21:16:30	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 15 20260613193829177	No	BUY	11	93¢	$10	0xe29c10…
06-15 15:16:22	us and iran sign an agreement by june 30 2026 20260611221049853	Yes	BUY	8	97¢	$8	0xb4e6ac…
06-15 15:13:54	us and iran sign an agreement by june 15 2026 20260611221049851	Yes	SELL	8	90¢	$8	0x1207d2…
06-15 14:58:37	us and iran sign an agreement by june 15 2026 20260611221049851	Yes	BUY	8	84¢	$7	0xac2042…
06-15 14:57:40	will trump agree to iranian enrichment of uranium by june 30	Yes	SELL	8	25¢	$2	0xab44a2…
06-15 14:57:36	will donald trump sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950067	Yes	SELL	6	31¢	$2	0xc79328…
06-15 14:57:31	will sheikh tamim bin hamad al thani sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950079	Yes	SELL	9	34¢	$3	0x6295e3…
06-15 11:58:54	will trump agree to iranian enrichment of uranium by june 30	Yes	BUY	8	59¢	$5	0x36326a…
06-15 11:58:36	will trump agree to iranian enrichment of uranium by june 30	Yes	SELL	9	60¢	$5	0xe0a8e5…
06-15 11:53:37	will trump agree to iranian enrichment of uranium by june 30	Yes	BUY	9	56¢	$5	0x153d2f…
06-15 09:47:42	will abbas araghchi sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950073	Yes	SELL	7	70¢	$5	0x29e03d…
06-15 09:22:12	Will Germany advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	50	0¢	$0	0x2aa32d…
06-15 00:55:48	US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	96¢	$6	0xe79cf7…
06-15 00:54:18	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	10	29¢	$3	0x0dc94d…
06-15 00:53:54	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	10	29¢	$3	0xeec52a…
06-14 21:30:49	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	21	30¢	$6	0x371671…
06-14 08:17:25	bitcoin up or down on june 14 2026	Up	BUY	3	70¢	$2	0x1619a9…
06-14 08:08:06	btc updown 5m 1781424300	Up	SELL	1	93¢	$1	0x2a9201…
06-14 08:07:31	btc updown 5m 1781424300	Up	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0xf5f49d…
06-14 08:05:21	btc updown 5m 1781424300	Up	BUY	3	58¢	$2	0x029d40…
06-14 08:05:19	btc updown 5m 1781424300	Up	BUY	3	59¢	$2	0x297f91…
06-14 08:03:06	btc updown 5m 1781424000	Down	SELL	2	94¢	$2	0xa15dfb…
06-14 08:02:43	btc updown 5m 1781424000	Down	BUY	2	94¢	$2	0xaabfd8…
06-14 07:52:40	btc updown 5m 1781423400	Down	SELL	3	63¢	$2	0x2506c9…
06-14 07:43:10	lol t1 gen 2026 06 14	T1	SELL	10	26¢	$3	0xa08d23…
06-14 07:30:28	doge updown 5m 1781422200	Down	BUY	3	66¢	$2	0xe39155…
06-14 07:29:27	doge updown 5m 1781421900	Down	SELL	2	91¢	$2	0x43879d…
06-14 07:29:01	doge updown 5m 1781421900	Down	BUY	2	80¢	$2	0xc56686…
06-14 07:28:52	doge updown 5m 1781421900	Down	SELL	3	70¢	$2	0x7b82d5…
06-14 07:28:42	doge updown 5m 1781421900	Down	BUY	3	72¢	$2	0x2cc9ac…
06-14 07:27:27	lol t1 gen 2026 06 14	Gen.G	SELL	1	81¢	$1	0x3b0ba2…
06-14 07:24:13	btc updown 15m 1781421300	Up	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x43fbeb…
06-14 07:23:57	btc updown 15m 1781421300	Up	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x7964aa…
06-14 07:23:55	btc updown 15m 1781421300	Up	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xbbfefd…
06-14 07:23:36	btc updown 15m 1781421300	Up	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xaf011f…
06-14 07:15:42	lol t1 gen 2026 06 14	Gen.G	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0x5c05db…
06-14 06:59:57	will jd vance sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950068	Yes	SELL	0	51¢	$0	0xeb9b57…
06-14 06:59:13	will jd vance sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950068	Yes	SELL	10	51¢	$5	0xa7e80a…
06-14 06:39:16	sol updown 5m 1781418900	Down	SELL	2	97¢	$2	0x261520…
06-14 06:37:25	sol updown 5m 1781418900	Down	BUY	2	96¢	$2	0xedd335…
06-14 06:30:58	btc updown 5m 1781418600	Up	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0xce11a7…
06-14 06:30:27	btc updown 5m 1781418600	Down	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0x98ef02…
06-14 06:29:58	btc updown 5m 1781418300	Down	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0xe84c0d…
06-14 06:29:45	btc updown 5m 1781418300	Up	SELL	2	65¢	$1	0x23bccd…
06-14 06:29:25	btc updown 5m 1781418300	Up	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0xba87cd…
06-14 06:29:12	btc updown 5m 1781418300	Up	SELL	3	72¢	$2	0x19d0a4…
06-14 06:28:27	btc updown 5m 1781418300	Down	SELL	1	81¢	$1	0x644682…
06-14 06:28:18	btc updown 5m 1781418300	Up	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0x71cb9a…
06-14 06:28:13	btc updown 5m 1781418300	Down	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0x7c6e99…
06-14 06:26:10	bitcoin up or down on june 14 2026	Down	SELL	5	42¢	$2	0x45c9d3…
06-14 06:23:52	bitcoin up or down on june 14 2026	Down	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0xad6e4c…
06-14 06:23:39	bitcoin up or down on june 14 2026	Up	SELL	5	60¢	$3	0x6fc223…
06-14 06:19:54	bitcoin up or down on june 14 2026	Up	BUY	5	66¢	$3	0x788e79…