Grumpy-Beetle-Hovel — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$4

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

28.6%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$210

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-05-05

last 07-11 18:14

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

44% — —

Other

41% 100% +$1

Tech

11% — —

Crypto

3% 0% $-5

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

18 active days in 12wk • peak 12 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	3	$15	17	0	+17	open	—	07-11 18:09
iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by july 31	2	$15	16	0	+16	open	—	07-01 19:08
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	4	$13	16	0	+16	open	—	07-01 14:20
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	1	$12	0	14	-14	open	—	07-01 19:03
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by June 30?	4	$11	11	0	+11	open	—	05-21 15:44
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 31?	5	$10	11	0	+11	open	—	05-16 19:45
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	4	$10	11	0	+11	open	—	05-16 19:50
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by May 31, 2026?	5	$10	11	0	+11	open	—	05-17 16:08
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	6	$10	10	0	+10	open	—	05-16 19:40
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	2	$8	13	0	+13	open	—	07-01 14:38
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 15?	2	$7	7	0	+7	open	—	05-13 17:21
uptspt x russia nuclear deal by july 31 20260626165517058	1	$7	7	0	+7	open	—	07-01 19:00
Iran coup attempt by June 30?	1	$5	5	0	+5	open	—	06-01 18:52
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	1	$5	24	0	+24	Up	$-5	05-05 01:08
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	1	$5	6	0	+6	open	—	06-01 18:56
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	1	$5	5	0	+5	open	—	06-01 18:48
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	1	$5	5	0	+5	open	—	06-22 11:57
Iran leadership change by June 30?	1	$5	5	0	+5	open	—	06-01 18:47
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?	1	$5	5	0	+5	open	—	06-01 18:54
Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31?	1	$5	6	0	+6	open	—	06-22 12:49
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	1	$5	5	0	+5	open	—	06-01 18:30
grok 4pt4 released by july 31 883	1	$5	6	0	+6	open	—	07-01 18:55
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	1	$5	5	0	+5	open	—	06-01 18:56
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?	2	$5	6	0	+6	open	—	05-23 19:27
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	2	$4	5	0	+5	open	—	07-11 18:14
U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31?	1	$3	3	0	+3	open	—	07-01 14:41
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?	1	$3	0	3	-3	open	—	07-01 19:04
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	1	$2	2	0	+2	open	—	06-01 19:25
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	1	$2	2	0	+2	open	—	05-10 15:41
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	1	$2	3	0	+3	open	—	05-12 20:52

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-11 18:14:55	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0xd73b43…
07-11 18:09:23	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0xc4684b…
07-01 20:09:29	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	84¢	$3	0xaa1901…
07-01 20:01:29	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0xe61bc2…
07-01 19:08:29	iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by july 31	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x377473…
07-01 19:04:35	Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?	Anthropic	SELL	3	89¢	$3	0x1951fb…
07-01 19:03:35	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	14	86¢	$12	0x1acc37…
07-01 19:00:58	uptspt x russia nuclear deal by july 31 20260626165517058	No	BUY	7	93¢	$7	0x353bd3…
07-01 18:55:04	grok 4pt4 released by july 31 883	Yes	BUY	6	89¢	$5	0x58c087…
07-01 18:15:01	iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by july 31	No	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0xd2c7a1…
07-01 14:41:34	U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31?	No	BUY	3	91¢	$3	0xf046d8…
07-01 14:38:28	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	BUY	9	59¢	$6	0x7a3667…
07-01 14:35:22	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	6	87¢	$5	0x7643eb…
07-01 14:20:08	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	BUY	6	84¢	$5	0xd46811…
06-25 12:52:14	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	BUY	4	61¢	$2	0x8497e7…
06-25 12:48:13	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	BUY	6	80¢	$5	0x22e2a8…
06-22 12:49:47	Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31?	No	BUY	6	87¢	$5	0x284907…
06-22 12:37:43	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0x6f2c2a…
06-22 11:57:13	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0x7f42c8…
06-19 22:16:52	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	No	BUY	3	79¢	$2	0xa51db4…
06-01 19:25:34	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xb1c757…
06-01 19:21:15	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0xa4633c…
06-01 18:56:56	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0x842d5a…
06-01 18:56:03	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	No	BUY	6	90¢	$5	0x552952…
06-01 18:54:23	Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x396293…
06-01 18:52:00	Iran coup attempt by June 30?	No	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x377b84…
06-01 18:48:26	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x86efd2…
06-01 18:47:25	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x242b46…
06-01 18:30:21	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0x1ef34e…
05-30 16:12:15	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	No	BUY	1	89¢	$1	0xd568ea…
05-23 19:27:20	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	5	87¢	$4	0x62c461…
05-21 15:44:31	Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by June 30?	Yes	BUY	3	95¢	$3	0xa6d532…
05-17 16:08:40	Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	2	93¢	$2	0x88a272…
05-16 19:50:52	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	4	95¢	$4	0x21d2e0…
05-16 19:45:16	Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 31?	Yes	BUY	2	93¢	$1	0x56ad2d…
05-16 19:40:57	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	No	BUY	1	95¢	$1	0x44562b…
05-16 18:33:00	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	No	BUY	2	95¢	$2	0x32e665…
05-16 00:51:20	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	No	BUY	2	96¢	$2	0xba7b97…
05-16 00:47:53	Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	2	93¢	$2	0x391b41…
05-14 19:46:45	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0x326338…
05-14 19:15:43	Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 31?	Yes	BUY	2	93¢	$2	0x45c07c…
05-14 16:20:38	Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	2	93¢	$2	0xd6ed53…
05-14 16:14:32	Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 31?	Yes	BUY	2	93¢	$2	0x69a8ee…
05-14 16:11:51	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	No	BUY	3	95¢	$3	0x6fcc4f…
05-14 16:10:24	Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 31?	Yes	BUY	3	93¢	$3	0x8b9940…
05-14 15:48:40	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	2	94¢	$2	0x846c4f…
05-14 15:43:49	Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by June 30?	Yes	BUY	2	97¢	$2	0xfb92e1…
05-13 19:18:56	Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by June 30?	Yes	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x060378…
05-13 17:28:33	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	3	94¢	$3	0xb3af53…
05-13 17:21:33	Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 15?	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x2891ce…
05-13 16:24:23	Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 31?	Yes	BUY	2	93¢	$2	0xd8b2bb…
05-13 15:35:35	Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 15?	No	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0xd1136d…
05-12 22:51:03	Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	2	90¢	$2	0x8609bf…
05-12 20:52:00	Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	No	BUY	3	61¢	$2	0x3394f0…
05-12 20:44:16	Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	2	90¢	$2	0xc3cf93…
05-11 23:05:04	Trump approval Up or Down this week?	Down	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0x3e9245…
05-11 22:48:32	Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by June 30?	Yes	BUY	1	93¢	$1	0xfb885b…
05-11 19:25:51	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0xbdd29f…
05-10 16:01:50	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $84 in May?	Yes	BUY	3	73¢	$2	0xb2e300…
05-10 15:49:34	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	No	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x991ec5…
05-10 15:41:20	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0x8f6d05…
05-07 18:24:59	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0xff4034…
05-05 12:47:08	Will Solana dip to $70 in May?	Yes	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0xdddd95…
05-05 01:08:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET	Down	BUY	24	21¢	$5	0x128ada…