Daring-Arrest — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$250

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

43.6%

Resolved

291

Trades

496

lifetime

Volume

$58.2K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$117

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-29

last 05-24 15:13

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 41 days

Categories

Other

62% 51% -$728

Sports

25% 39% +$1,488

Politics

13% 21% -$510

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-05-24).

Open positions Resolved markets (26) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	5	$1.4K	4,550	4,550	+0	No	+$321	05-22 17:05
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	10	$1.2K	2,105	2,105	+0	open	—	05-22 17:22
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16?	7	$1.2K	1,965	1,965	+0	No	-$42	05-21 16:04
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	6	$901	1,102	1,102	+0	No	-$49	05-22 17:34
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	7	$829	871	871	+0	No	-$92	05-22 17:23
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	3	$799	1,416	1,416	+0	Yes	-$6	05-22 17:05
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	8	$687	1,008	1,008	+0	open	—	05-23 02:58
Aix en Provence: Pol Martin Tiffon vs Kimmer Coppejans	3	$603	3,554	0	+3,554	Pol Martin Tiffon	-$408	05-01 13:38
Will Neymar play in the World Cup?	6	$596	345	345	+0	Yes	-$25	05-23 03:08
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	4	$594	595	595	+0	open	—	05-23 02:58
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-03?	2	$589	820	0	+820	Yes	-$213	05-03 15:30
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	5	$556	535	535	+0	Yes	-$65	05-22 17:11
T20 Series Afghanistan vs Sri Lanka: Afghanistan vs Sri Lanka - Completed match?	4	$499	475	475	+0	open	—	05-23 02:58
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-05-03?	3	$480	505	465	+40	No	-$24	05-03 06:30
Arne Slot out as Liverpool Head Coach by May 31, 2026?	4	$476	331	331	+0	Yes	-$94	05-22 17:07
Roland Garros, Qualification WTA: Lucia Bronzetti vs Varvara Lepchenko	3	$467	557	193	+363	Lucia Bronzetti	-$44	05-19 21:32
Shanghai Shenhua FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC: O/U 4.5	2	$465	615	0	+615	Over	-$128	05-01 13:38
Will Çaykur Rizespor win on 2026-05-01?	2	$443	1,007	0	+1,007	Yes	-$443	05-01 13:38
Will US Lecce win on 2026-05-01?	2	$441	1,077	0	+1,077	Yes	+$635	05-01 13:38
Will Göztepe SK vs. Çaykur Rizespor end in a draw?	4	$424	373	95	+278	No	-$235	05-22 17:10
SC Braga vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 4.5	1	$412	448	0	+448	Under	+$36	04-30 14:31
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-04-30?	1	$392	712	0	+712	Yes	-$392	04-30 14:31
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the Western Conference?	2	$387	505	505	+0	Yes	+$87	05-22 17:22
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the Western Conference?	2	$385	500	500	+0	No	+$85	05-22 17:05
Wild vs. Avalanche	1	$383	7,662	0	+7,662	Avalanche	-$383	05-04 03:31
Austin FC vs. St. Louis City SC: O/U 2.5	1	$382	617	0	+617	Under	-$382	05-03 21:31
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the Eastern Conference?	2	$375	500	500	+0	Yes	+$75	05-22 17:22
SC Braga vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 2.5	1	$372	620	0	+620	Over	-$372	04-30 14:31
Will AC Milan win on 2026-05-03?	3	$367	551	290	+261	No	+$143	05-02 12:30
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: Both Teams to Score	1	$364	1,545	0	+1,545	Yes	-$364	05-04 03:31

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-24 15:13:24	New Rihanna Album before GTA VI?	Yes	SELL	4	51¢	$2	0x57d645…
05-24 15:13:11	Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	SELL	0	61¢	$0	0x8fe280…
05-24 15:13:03	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	307	22¢	$68	0x4f40aa…
05-24 15:12:54	Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,449	1¢	$13	0x3697d5…
05-24 15:12:43	Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	272	32¢	$87	0x9c46b7…
05-23 15:16:25	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	No	SELL	104	64¢	$67	0x5c352c…
05-23 15:16:12	Will Sevilla be relegated from La Liga after the 2025–26 season?	No	SELL	159	99¢	$157	0x4113fd…
05-23 03:10:20	Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	1,257	6¢	$71	0xc1e9eb…
05-23 03:08:40	Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?	Yes	SELL	3	12¢	$0	0x956414…
05-23 03:08:33	Will Neymar play in the World Cup?	No	SELL	41	12¢	$5	0x606c86…
05-23 03:08:23	Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	598	3¢	$19	0x00961b…
05-23 03:08:14	Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	SELL	189	29¢	$55	0x936240…
05-23 03:05:54	Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	SELL	658	7¢	$46	0x16c610…
05-23 03:03:24	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	SELL	92	93¢	$85	0x022713…
05-23 03:03:11	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	SELL	96	95¢	$91	0x2ebfc7…
05-23 03:02:49	Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	SELL	238	63¢	$150	0xbc50ee…
05-23 03:00:41	Will the New York Knicks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?	No	SELL	12	12¢	$2	0x705a01…
05-23 03:00:36	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	SELL	251	3¢	$8	0xe9977b…
05-23 03:00:23	Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	Yes	SELL	329	5¢	$17	0x98e1e7…
05-23 03:00:18	Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	SELL	1,761	2¢	$31	0x3da2d2…
05-23 03:00:11	Iran coup attempt by June 30?	Yes	SELL	635	9¢	$58	0xd86490…
05-23 03:00:02	Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals?	No	SELL	300	22¢	$66	0x6dd9d1…
05-23 02:59:55	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	94	88¢	$82	0xe6c473…
05-23 02:59:06	Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	SELL	112	77¢	$87	0x656c6c…
05-23 02:58:54	Aurora FC vs. CD Marquense: O/U 2.5	Under	SELL	101	76¢	$77	0x4f1cc6…
05-23 02:58:47	T20 Series Afghanistan vs Sri Lanka: Afghanistan vs Sri Lanka - Completed match?	Yes	SELL	204	45¢	$92	0x43d1f0…
05-23 02:58:31	Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	574	24¢	$139	0x2995cb…
05-23 02:58:21	Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	306	47¢	$144	0x11a385…
05-22 17:35:01	Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Yes	SELL	1,327	11¢	$149	0x34e049…
05-22 17:34:51	Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	No	SELL	772	23¢	$176	0x667e57…
05-22 17:23:27	Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	Yes	SELL	757	18¢	$140	0x03588a…
05-22 17:23:18	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	208	75¢	$156	0xe672ab…
05-22 17:23:09	Will Daniel Ennis win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election?	No	SELL	652	15¢	$95	0xfca807…
05-22 17:22:59	Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the Eastern Conference?	No	SELL	500	45¢	$225	0x87414a…
05-22 17:22:48	Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the Western Conference?	Yes	SELL	505	47¢	$237	0xed1961…
05-22 17:22:39	Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	1,408	19¢	$262	0xf4768c…
05-22 17:12:04	Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	Yes	SELL	194	11¢	$21	0x76457e…
05-22 17:11:55	Will Janice Boylan win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election?	Yes	SELL	215	6¢	$14	0xc2a36e…
05-22 17:11:48	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	SELL	206	22¢	$45	0x29f486…
05-22 17:11:41	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	153	35¢	$53	0xe160a6…
05-22 17:11:34	Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	308	19¢	$59	0xdcb230…
05-22 17:11:26	Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	374	16¢	$60	0xec8ca0…
05-22 17:11:19	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	120	56¢	$67	0x1ca3ce…
05-22 17:11:13	Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	574	12¢	$71	0xd5fab3…
05-22 17:11:06	Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	354	23¢	$82	0xa00845…
05-22 17:10:58	Iran leadership change by December 31?	No	SELL	122	69¢	$84	0x4efa22…
05-22 17:10:49	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	No	SELL	201	43¢	$87	0x5ed8d6…
05-22 17:10:40	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	SELL	91	96¢	$87	0x6588de…
05-22 17:10:31	Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?	No	SELL	132	67¢	$88	0x65af12…
05-22 17:10:09	Will Göztepe SK vs. Çaykur Rizespor end in a draw?	No	SELL	95	99¢	$95	0xa5840f…
05-22 17:09:41	Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	1,056	9¢	$94	0xf4e5ae…
05-22 17:09:30	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	555	17¢	$95	0xaddac2…
05-22 17:08:10	Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	1,140	9¢	$100	0x946a52…
05-22 17:08:03	Will Oklahoma City Thunder advance to the 2026 NBA Finals?	No	SELL	288	38¢	$110	0xb19bbf…
05-22 17:07:54	Arne Slot out as Liverpool Head Coach by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	157	67¢	$105	0x0cc131…
05-22 17:07:47	Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals?	Yes	SELL	299	40¢	$121	0xb7751f…
05-22 17:07:38	Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox	Boston Red Sox	SELL	292	45¢	$131	0x38697c…
05-22 17:07:29	Will Neymar play in the World Cup?	Yes	SELL	151	92¢	$139	0x73b6c5…
05-22 17:07:15	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	570	23¢	$131	0x82736c…
05-22 17:07:07	Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	SELL	187	76¢	$142	0xa7d917…
05-22 17:07:00	Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	Yes	SELL	436	32¢	$141	0xf73a3c…
05-22 17:06:49	Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Yes	SELL	349	42¢	$147	0x2d9702…
05-22 17:06:40	Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	SELL	288	52¢	$150	0xd7d8fb…
05-22 17:06:32	Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?	No	SELL	357	42¢	$150	0xc60088…
05-22 17:06:21	Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 Western Conference Finals MVP?	No	SELL	297	56¢	$166	0xcdd30d…
05-22 17:06:14	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	416	43¢	$179	0x3ba251…
05-22 17:06:04	Will FC Nantes vs. Toulouse FC end in a draw?	Yes	SELL	857	23¢	$197	0xadf822…
05-22 17:05:51	Will the Colorado Avalanche win the Western Conference?	No	SELL	500	47¢	$235	0x7e28e9…
05-22 17:05:43	Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	SELL	329	76¢	$250	0xbcba1a…
05-22 17:05:36	Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	SELL	367	81¢	$298	0x0bed14…
05-22 17:05:27	Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	Yes	SELL	1,416	28¢	$397	0x03cee8…
05-22 17:05:18	Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	Yes	SELL	3,374	21¢	$709	0xb77b4c…
05-21 16:04:55	Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16?	No	SELL	344	89¢	$307	0x970c1c…
05-21 16:04:46	Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16?	Yes	SELL	1,456	9¢	$133	0x45fd46…
05-21 14:44:11	New Rihanna Album before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x7243dd…
05-21 11:34:09	New Rihanna Album before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x9ed69d…
05-21 04:31:37	Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?	No	BUY	357	42¢	$150	0x58aee2…
05-21 04:31:35	Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	306	49¢	$150	0x0f820f…
05-21 04:31:34	Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	BUY	288	52¢	$150	0xfaa6b0…
05-20 03:31:45	Will the New York Knicks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?	No	SELL	300	20¢	$60	0x7b4ce6…
05-20 03:31:45	Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Yes	BUY	349	43¢	$150	0x431273…
05-20 03:31:42	Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	247	25¢	$61	0xed1d55…
05-20 03:31:42	Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?	Yes	SELL	303	21¢	$64	0xeb7212…
05-20 02:32:24	Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Yes	BUY	1,761	8¢	$135	0x3bbb58…
05-20 02:32:20	Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres	San Diego Padres	BUY	185	73¢	$135	0xe7cda7…
05-20 02:32:19	Will the New York Knicks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?	No	BUY	312	48¢	$150	0xf3231d…
05-20 02:32:17	Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?	Yes	BUY	306	49¢	$150	0x810cfd…
05-20 02:32:17	T20 Series Afghanistan vs Sri Lanka: Afghanistan vs Sri Lanka - Completed match?	Yes	SELL	271	45¢	$122	0x582c09…
05-20 02:32:15	Will Neymar play in the World Cup?	Yes	SELL	152	93¢	$142	0x2bd1b6…
05-20 02:32:12	Arne Slot out as Liverpool Head Coach by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	175	49¢	$86	0x0b4916…
05-20 02:32:08	Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	452	14¢	$61	0xde114f…
05-20 02:32:06	Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Yes	SELL	331	19¢	$62	0xc7857e…
05-20 02:31:51	Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	Yes	SELL	1,176	13¢	$152	0x7f7e85…
05-19 23:31:34	Will Neymar play in the World Cup?	Yes	BUY	152	94¢	$142	0x7baf20…
05-19 23:31:32	T20 Series Afghanistan vs Sri Lanka: Afghanistan vs Sri Lanka - Completed match?	Yes	BUY	238	60¢	$142	0x06e2a7…
05-19 23:31:30	Will Neymar play in the World Cup?	Yes	BUY	152	94¢	$142	0x88824e…
05-19 23:31:29	Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 Western Conference Finals MVP?	No	BUY	297	48¢	$142	0xc2da7d…
05-19 23:31:29	Arne Slot out as Liverpool Head Coach by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	166	86¢	$142	0x8cef26…
05-19 23:31:29	T20 Series Afghanistan vs Sri Lanka: Afghanistan vs Sri Lanka - Completed match?	Yes	BUY	238	60¢	$142	0x86a421…
05-19 23:31:23	Arne Slot out as Liverpool Head Coach by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	166	86¢	$142	0xcf858f…