Likely-Carpet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$6

Unrealized P&L

-$1

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

199

lifetime

Volume

$2.25K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$11

Open exposure

$26

3 positions

First seen

2026-04-08

last 06-24 10:35

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Crypto

86% 100% +$4

Politics

8% 100% +$2

Other

4% — —

Tech

2% — —

Sports

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

25 active days in 12wk • peak 89 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	-24	$-22	94¢	$-23	$-1	06-24 10:34
Will GameStop acquire eBay?	Yes	-17	$-2	14¢	$-2	+$0	06-08 20:09
Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	+7	$1	16¢	$1	+$0	06-15 12:27

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	10	$277	200	134	+65	open	—	06-02 14:42
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET	10	$216	121	121	+0	open	—	06-02 11:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	12	$216	191	191	+0	open	—	06-02 11:43
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	12	$108	123	36	+86	open	—	06-02 11:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	4	$98	54	54	+0	open	—	06-02 09:28
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	6	$96	55	55	+0	open	—	06-02 09:21
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET	10	$85	81	70	+11	open	—	06-03 05:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	5	$82	142	42	+100	open	—	06-02 10:22
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET	4	$80	82	0	+82	open	—	06-02 11:34
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	5	$65	87	0	+87	open	—	06-02 16:08
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	2	$62	28	37	-9	open	—	06-02 08:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET	10	$58	65	49	+16	open	—	06-03 06:28
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	6	$56	70	0	+70	open	—	06-02 11:09
btc updown 5m 1780560600	13	$55	47	47	+0	open	—	06-04 08:12
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	2	$50	78	0	+78	open	—	06-02 14:55
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	2	$50	56	0	+56	open	—	06-02 17:32
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	2	$50	51	0	+51	open	—	06-02 15:03
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET	5	$46	26	26	+0	open	—	06-03 05:54
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	2	$40	43	0	+43	open	—	06-02 09:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	3	$35	32	5	+27	open	—	06-02 07:59
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	3	$35	23	23	+0	open	—	04-18 18:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET	7	$33	50	39	+11	open	—	06-03 06:33
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET	6	$31	35	20	+16	open	—	06-03 06:39
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	2	$25	16	16	+0	open	—	05-26 19:37
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	1	$22	0	24	-24	open	—	06-24 10:34
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	1	$20	0	22	-22	open	—	06-02 19:04
Will OpenAI have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?	2	$20	110	110	+0	open	—	04-13 16:06
Will Iran strike Germany by April 30, 2026?	1	$20	20	0	+20	open	—	04-12 11:42
Will Iran strike Spain by April 30, 2026?	1	$20	20	0	+20	open	—	04-12 11:42
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET	3	$15	18	0	+18	open	—	06-03 06:21

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-24 10:35:37	us iran final nuclear deal by july 31 2026 20260621201255151	No	BUY	2	96¢	$2	0xc1c33e…
06-24 10:35:28	us iran final nuclear deal by august 31 2026 20260621201255154	Yes	BUY	8	25¢	$2	0x5c36e5…
06-24 10:34:13	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	SELL	24	90¢	$22	0xd21c52…
06-23 08:53:41	will openais valuation hit high 1pt5t by december 31 574 287	No	SELL	16	50¢	$8	0x95f541…
06-16 13:49:31	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 22 20260613193829178 738 167 332 255	Yes	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0x9b5800…
06-15 12:27:33	Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0xeb25da…
06-15 12:27:27	Iran leadership change by June 30?	Yes	BUY	62	2¢	$1	0x2edd1f…
06-14 12:04:36	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 22 20260613193829178	Yes	BUY	9	56¢	$5	0xc56363…
06-14 12:04:30	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 15 20260613193829177	No	BUY	3	86¢	$3	0x0e005a…
06-10 17:45:06	ufc der jos52 2026 06 14	Derrick Lewis	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0x9ba1f2…
06-10 17:44:49	ufc jus3 ili1 2026 06 14	Justin Gaethje	BUY	25	20¢	$5	0x03f6e8…
06-10 16:39:57	btc updown 4h 1781107200	Up	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0x4ad0c9…
06-10 16:39:39	will bitcoin reach 82pt5k in june 2026	Yes	BUY	71	1¢	$1	0xdac879…
06-10 16:38:27	will bitcoin reach 70000 in june 2026 from june 2	Yes	BUY	11	18¢	$2	0xc7edd3…
06-08 20:09:00	Will GameStop acquire eBay?	Yes	SELL	17	15¢	$2	0xd419fd…
06-04 08:12:51	btc updown 5m 1780560600	Up	SELL	5	14¢	$1	0x5b39ab…
06-04 08:12:49	btc updown 5m 1780560600	Down	SELL	8	85¢	$7	0x2c41a0…
06-04 08:11:57	btc updown 5m 1780560600	Up	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0xff18b7…
06-04 08:11:57	btc updown 5m 1780560600	Up	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0xd831cc…
06-04 08:11:52	btc updown 5m 1780560600	Down	BUY	8	62¢	$5	0xbe751e…
06-04 08:11:49	btc updown 5m 1780560600	Up	SELL	9	37¢	$3	0x20140c…
06-04 08:11:34	btc updown 5m 1780560600	Up	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0x5868ad…
06-04 08:11:15	btc updown 5m 1780560600	Up	SELL	15	62¢	$9	0x2260c8…
06-04 08:11:10	btc updown 5m 1780560600	Up	BUY	7	69¢	$5	0xd9164c…
06-04 08:11:07	btc updown 5m 1780560600	Up	SELL	11	69¢	$7	0x288262…
06-04 08:11:03	btc updown 5m 1780560600	Up	BUY	7	67¢	$5	0x6001a2…
06-04 08:10:55	btc updown 5m 1780560600	Up	BUY	9	56¢	$5	0x55ebc0…
06-04 08:10:54	btc updown 5m 1780560600	Up	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0xea2667…
06-04 08:06:51	btc updown 5m 1780560300	Down	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0xd83700…
06-04 08:06:49	btc updown 5m 1780560300	Down	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x108f79…
06-03 06:39:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET	Up	BUY	7	71¢	$5	0xd25845…
06-03 06:38:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET	Up	SELL	10	64¢	$6	0x5cdf89…
06-03 06:38:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET	Down	BUY	9	57¢	$5	0xd2af97…
06-03 06:37:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET	Up	BUY	8	59¢	$5	0xf1946b…
06-03 06:37:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET	Up	SELL	10	52¢	$5	0x9c7c9e…
06-03 06:37:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET	Up	BUY	11	45¢	$5	0xe8cbe2…
06-03 06:33:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET	Down	SELL	25	3¢	$1	0x7901b8…
06-03 06:31:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET	Up	BUY	11	45¢	$5	0xf7831e…
06-03 06:31:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET	Down	BUY	9	53¢	$5	0x52e03c…
06-03 06:31:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET	Up	SELL	14	49¢	$7	0x585763…
06-03 06:31:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET	Down	BUY	8	62¢	$5	0x3027ab…
06-03 06:31:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET	Down	BUY	7	67¢	$5	0x2e7253…
06-03 06:30:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET	Up	BUY	14	36¢	$5	0xe34d29…
06-03 06:28:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x7445ce…
06-03 06:28:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x36af4b…
06-03 06:28:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x220fd2…
06-03 06:28:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET	Down	SELL	14	81¢	$11	0x2194e5…
06-03 06:27:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET	Up	SELL	16	37¢	$6	0xb1d952…
06-03 06:27:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET	Up	BUY	16	32¢	$5	0x101ec2…
06-03 06:27:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET	Down	BUY	7	68¢	$5	0xda40ce…
06-03 06:27:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET	Up	SELL	19	32¢	$6	0x588ff6…
06-03 06:26:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET	Down	BUY	7	74¢	$5	0xf65b05…
06-03 06:26:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET	Up	BUY	19	26¢	$5	0x722a66…
06-03 06:21:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET	Up	BUY	6	80¢	$5	0x64b4c1…
06-03 06:21:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET	Up	BUY	6	88¢	$5	0xe1f384…
06-03 06:21:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET	Up	BUY	6	89¢	$5	0x2297d2…
06-03 06:16:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET	Up	BUY	7	72¢	$5	0x214c4f…
06-03 06:16:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET	Up	BUY	6	79¢	$5	0xd5f626…
06-03 05:59:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0xe26d07…
06-03 05:59:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET	Up	BUY	6	86¢	$5	0x179d89…
06-03 05:58:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET	Up	SELL	14	81¢	$12	0xc0d212…
06-03 05:57:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET	Up	BUY	7	75¢	$5	0x0b5ca3…
06-03 05:57:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET	Up	BUY	8	66¢	$5	0xeb09a5…
06-03 05:57:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET	Down	SELL	21	28¢	$6	0x5339d4…
06-03 05:56:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET	Down	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0xeb4873…
06-03 05:56:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET	Down	BUY	11	47¢	$5	0xe2b4bc…
06-03 05:56:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET	Up	SELL	35	37¢	$13	0x59d602…
06-03 05:55:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET	Up	BUY	35	72¢	$25	0xca4e52…
06-03 05:54:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET	Up	SELL	26	99¢	$26	0x819f63…
06-03 05:52:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET	Up	BUY	6	77¢	$5	0x697dd0…
06-03 05:50:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET	Up	BUY	6	78¢	$5	0x0f945d…
06-03 05:50:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET	Up	BUY	6	77¢	$5	0xd8aedf…
06-03 05:50:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET	Up	BUY	7	76¢	$5	0x70af90…
06-02 19:04:02	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	No	SELL	22	94¢	$20	0x094271…
06-02 17:32:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Up	BUY	27	92¢	$25	0x62cd54…
06-02 17:32:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Up	BUY	29	86¢	$25	0xa36764…
06-02 16:08:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	Up	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0xbb1d48…
06-02 16:08:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	Up	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x8cc006…
06-02 16:08:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	Up	BUY	26	98¢	$25	0x42395a…
06-02 16:07:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	Down	BUY	38	65¢	$25	0xca30e2…
06-02 16:07:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	Up	BUY	12	40¢	$5	0xebb3fa…
06-02 15:03:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	Down	BUY	25	99¢	$25	0x847527…
06-02 15:03:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET	Down	BUY	25	99¢	$25	0x29759d…
06-02 14:55:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	Up	BUY	40	62¢	$25	0x5f0d77…
06-02 14:55:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	Up	BUY	38	67¢	$25	0x56241f…
06-02 14:42:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x92b0e0…
06-02 14:42:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Down	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x69c65c…
06-02 14:42:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Down	BUY	27	91¢	$25	0xf31c9a…
06-02 14:42:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Down	BUY	27	91¢	$25	0xcc073c…
06-02 14:42:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Down	SELL	60	88¢	$52	0xa2e528…
06-02 14:41:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Down	BUY	30	84¢	$25	0x38846f…
06-02 14:41:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Down	BUY	30	84¢	$25	0x75112b…
06-02 14:41:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Down	SELL	75	86¢	$64	0x9a40a9…
06-02 14:41:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Down	BUY	35	71¢	$25	0x2efb34…
06-02 14:40:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Down	BUY	40	63¢	$25	0xffaddc…
06-02 11:43:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	Down	SELL	69	82¢	$56	0xd2c607…
06-02 11:43:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	Down	BUY	6	77¢	$5	0x32ae9e…
06-02 11:43:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	Down	BUY	25	79¢	$20	0x5acb89…
06-02 11:43:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	Down	BUY	29	68¢	$20	0x27b791…
06-02 11:43:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	Down	BUY	7	68¢	$5	0xd19a24…