Realized P&L
-$82.3K
Unrealized P&L
+$14.4K
Hit rate
67.8%
Resolved
154
Trades
2,991
lifetime
Volume
$1.64M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$550
Open exposure
$150.2K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-16
last 10-29 10:18
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 58 days
Categories
Politics
49%
62%
-$84,443
Other
43%
53%
+$3,307
Sports
5%
76%
-$1,196
Crypto
3%
—
—
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
63 active days in 12wk
• peak 43 trades/day
| Market | Trades | Volume USD | Bought | Sold | Net shares | Resolution | P&L | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | 59 | $210.8K | 113,341 | 113,341 | +0 | No | +$1,413 | 04-09 14:39 |
| will the iranian regime fall by march 31 | 17 | $186.4K | 99,138 | 99,138 | +0 | No | +$1,326 | 03-19 19:28 |
| us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761 | 158 | $96.8K | 65,510 | 61,249 | +4,261 | Yes | -$1,614 | 02-13 19:42 |
| iran leadership change by march 31 | 56 | $70.9K | 41,271 | 41,271 | +0 | No | +$1,939 | 03-25 09:38 |
| khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31 | 71 | $65.9K | 59,433 | 25,150 | +34,283 | Yes | -$26,718 | 02-18 09:39 |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | 19 | $63.1K | 50,246 | 20,000 | +30,246 | open | — | 10-29 04:57 |
| us x iran ceasefire by april 30 | 66 | $61.3K | 87,849 | 48,203 | +39,646 | Yes | -$25,257 | 03-24 18:36 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | 37 | $59.7K | 36,657 | 36,657 | +0 | Yes | +$1,080 | 03-19 15:25 |
| khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28 | 32 | $50.2K | 46,049 | 19,276 | +26,773 | Yes | -$5,581 | 02-11 21:01 |
| will there be another us government shutdown by january 31 | 53 | $48.2K | 60,856 | 32,855 | +28,001 | Yes | +$1,587 | 01-30 16:32 |
| us x iran ceasefire by april 15 | 71 | $45.3K | 98,584 | 70,607 | +27,976 | Yes | -$11,234 | 04-07 19:18 |
| russia x ukraine ceasefire by march 31 2026 | 14 | $42.0K | 76,842 | 76,842 | +0 | No | +$1,345 | 03-08 22:30 |
| kharg island no longer under iranian control by march 31 | 109 | $41.3K | 95,633 | 90,492 | +5,140 | No | +$1,052 | 03-25 13:37 |
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? | 93 | $33.4K | 95,302 | 73,994 | +21,308 | Yes | +$376 | 08-18 18:06 |
| russia x ukraine ceasefire by december 31 2026 | 102 | $26.2K | 42,518 | 17,256 | +25,262 | open | — | 10-21 16:44 |
| us iran final nuclear deal by august 18 2026 20260621201255153 | 13 | $23.7K | 14,354 | 10,526 | +3,828 | No | +$115 | 08-05 18:33 |
| will to lam be elected general secretary of the vietnamese communist party | 15 | $22.6K | 14,396 | 10,612 | +3,784 | Yes | +$656 | 01-22 12:29 |
| will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026 | 24 | $22.2K | 20,545 | 4,358 | +16,187 | open | — | 10-28 20:38 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | 12 | $21.2K | 35,598 | 0 | +35,598 | Yes | -$20,021 | 06-12 16:52 |
| cs2 ts7 g2 2026 06 19 | 48 | $20.9K | 30,317 | 4,000 | +26,317 | Spirit | +$1,773 | 06-19 14:46 |
| will andr ventura win the 1st round of the 2026 portugal presidential election | 38 | $19.3K | 11,458 | 11,458 | +0 | No | +$2,754 | 01-18 20:02 |
| us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129 | 19 | $18.3K | 38,599 | 16,334 | +22,265 | Yes | -$5,397 | 06-13 18:36 |
| Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026? | 29 | $18.0K | 30,667 | 0 | +30,667 | open | — | 10-19 11:00 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | 3 | $16.8K | 20,738 | 0 | +20,738 | No | +$3,938 | 05-06 09:51 |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | 37 | $16.7K | 28,005 | 1,993 | +26,012 | No | +$7,857 | 06-18 07:15 |
| will ronaldo cry at the world cup 20260604013616610 | 124 | $14.6K | 22,697 | 17,776 | +4,921 | Yes | -$822 | 07-01 15:32 |
| will antnio jos seguro win the 2026 portugal presidential election | 114 | $13.8K | 55,180 | 55,180 | +0 | Yes | -$5,090 | 01-18 20:02 |
| NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | 20 | $11.4K | 31,816 | 16,044 | +15,771 | open | — | 10-21 01:03 |
| Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch? | 24 | $11.2K | 14,910 | 0 | +14,910 | open | — | 09-15 04:16 |
| strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15 | 37 | $10.8K | 16,452 | 4,541 | +11,911 | No | +$489 | 06-30 16:33 |
| Wallet | Shared markets | Overlap volume | Overlap trades | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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