Exotic-Prize — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$3.06K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

96.6%

Resolved

Trades

12,081

lifetime

Volume

$2.12M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$176

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-23

last 08-12 17:01

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 6 days

Categories

Politics

70% 67% +$3,293

Other

23% 64% $-237

Crypto

6% — —

Tech

0% — —

Sports

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

84 active days in 12wk • peak 201 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	44	$158.3K	93,135	72,929	+20,206	Yes	+$3,856	05-09 19:30
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	59	$131.6K	97,188	66,435	+30,753	open	—	06-03 21:41
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	40	$110.4K	67,379	52,321	+15,058	open	—	04-08 21:20
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	149	$59.5K	272,300	212,688	+59,612	open	—	06-17 15:52
israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967 454	21	$59.5K	29,818	29,818	+0	open	—	07-27 02:19
israel announces lebanon ceasefire extension by june 7	36	$57.1K	31,715	34,230	-2,516	open	—	06-06 06:14
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	20	$28.3K	27,454	2,800	+24,654	open	—	04-08 20:37
will iran strike israel on march 10	75	$28.2K	15,751	19,352	-3,602	open	—	03-15 22:28
us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	95	$27.2K	29,359	8,418	+20,942	open	—	04-30 20:05
israel x hezbollah ceasefire by april 18 2026	4	$27.0K	26,000	1,000	+25,000	open	—	04-20 21:58
will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 17	26	$26.7K	16,000	16,000	+0	open	—	07-16 08:44
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	50	$24.9K	19,480	25,984	-6,504	open	—	06-20 22:12
starmer out by july 31 2026	72	$24.3K	26,198	17,372	+8,826	open	—	06-20 20:04
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	48	$23.6K	14,974	16,189	-1,215	open	—	02-28 08:45
israel x hezbollah ceasefire by april 15 2026	84	$23.3K	21,647	25,334	-3,687	open	—	04-15 21:41
Starmer out by April 30, 2026?	47	$23.2K	14,044	14,990	-946	open	—	04-25 01:31
israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 1	11	$21.9K	22,000	0	+22,000	open	—	08-01 22:11
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	16	$21.6K	25,000	0	+25,000	open	—	06-30 07:27
iran closes its airspace by june 8	35	$20.8K	11,000	11,000	+0	open	—	06-08 05:03
will trump be in the wc champions photo 20260608152527021	27	$19.9K	20,030	30	+20,000	open	—	07-20 06:16
will trump talk to xi jinping in march 165	20	$19.7K	11,910	11,910	+0	open	—	04-03 02:04
will the us x iran ceasefire be extended by april 21 2026 365	88	$18.5K	13,079	13,399	-319	open	—	04-22 05:00
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	97	$17.8K	17,761	20,115	-2,354	open	—	03-05 09:47
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	74	$16.6K	17,000	17,000	+0	open	—	06-29 08:26
will iran strike israel on march 6	79	$16.3K	18,929	22,018	-3,090	open	—	03-10 21:11
israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	54	$15.3K	23,947	23,539	+408	open	—	06-09 22:42
iran strike on qatar by february 28 2026 334	65	$15.1K	13,900	11,308	+2,592	open	—	03-01 11:26
congress passes iran war powers resolution by june 30	18	$14.2K	9,465	9,465	+0	open	—	06-23 20:36
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	3	$13.4K	10,000	10,000	+0	open	—	06-09 00:20
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?	123	$13.2K	24,895	21,741	+3,155	open	—	05-15 21:45

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-12 21:54:43	will russia and ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 20260629155934232 846	Yes	BUY	275	19¢	$52	0xa44f01…
08-12 21:28:34	Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	198	43¢	$85	0x1b71a6…
08-12 20:26:54	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 22 2026	Yes	BUY	500	18¢	$90	0x1d3ca2…
08-12 19:02:15	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 13 20260807213124702	Yes	SELL	1,000	39¢	$389	0xee2383…
08-12 17:01:37	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 13 20260807213124702	Yes	BUY	1,000	30¢	$300	0x79f619…
08-12 15:38:30	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	BUY	517	30¢	$155	0xcbacb6…
08-12 14:31:37	will russia and ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by august 15 2026	Yes	SELL	1,677	3¢	$44	0x6127ac…
08-12 05:57:43	tyler robinson convicted of homicide	No	SELL	757	59¢	$447	0x5387e3…
08-12 04:18:15	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	No	SELL	267	72¢	$192	0x24f151…
08-11 16:53:21	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	No	SELL	1,000	83¢	$830	0x8bd2ae…
08-11 14:58:49	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	No	SELL	10	82¢	$8	0xfbc57a…
08-11 14:58:43	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	No	SELL	42	82¢	$34	0xaea856…
08-11 14:58:22	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	No	SELL	30	82¢	$25	0xedd790…
08-11 14:58:16	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	No	SELL	22	82¢	$18	0x87b062…
08-11 14:52:22	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	No	SELL	16	82¢	$13	0x71882b…
08-11 14:47:16	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	No	SELL	614	82¢	$503	0xd81fe8…
08-11 10:19:09	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	Yes	SELL	517	21¢	$109	0x946c76…
08-11 10:06:30	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	No	BUY	1,934	80¢	$1,547	0x3f40de…
08-11 09:39:49	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	No	BUY	66	80¢	$53	0x66f985…
08-11 08:15:03	will the next uk election be called by december 31 2026	Yes	SELL	300	20¢	$60	0x22e3c0…
08-11 01:43:34	Iran leadership change by December 31?	No	BUY	202	81¢	$164	0x36ef03…
08-11 01:38:52	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	Yes	SELL	517	17¢	$88	0xd1f931…
08-11 00:40:21	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	SELL	5,000	7¢	$350	0x563497…
08-10 23:48:00	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	Yes	BUY	10	11¢	$1	0xc30d8c…
08-10 23:48:00	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	Yes	BUY	40	11¢	$4	0x79793a…
08-10 23:47:58	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	Yes	BUY	0	11¢	$0	0x85630b…
08-10 23:47:57	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	Yes	BUY	14	11¢	$2	0xec8aa1…
08-10 23:47:57	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	Yes	BUY	10	11¢	$1	0x89134e…
08-10 23:47:57	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	Yes	BUY	0	11¢	$0	0x37b29e…
08-10 23:47:57	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	Yes	BUY	12	11¢	$1	0x0a7329…
08-10 23:47:55	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	Yes	BUY	0	11¢	$0	0xf08739…
08-10 23:47:55	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	Yes	BUY	7	11¢	$1	0x1b08f3…
08-10 23:47:54	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	Yes	BUY	0	11¢	$0	0xfa3c8b…
08-10 23:47:54	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	Yes	BUY	16	11¢	$2	0xd00ac3…
08-10 23:47:54	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	Yes	BUY	3	11¢	$0	0xb36867…
08-10 23:47:52	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	Yes	BUY	0	11¢	$0	0xe26ac1…
08-10 23:47:52	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	Yes	BUY	0	11¢	$0	0xcd8ca2…
08-10 23:47:52	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	Yes	BUY	0	11¢	$0	0x4a7f6a…
08-10 23:47:52	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	Yes	BUY	12	11¢	$1	0x3aca1f…
08-10 23:47:51	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	Yes	BUY	8	11¢	$1	0xd93f26…
08-10 23:47:51	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	Yes	BUY	0	11¢	$0	0xcba781…
08-10 23:47:51	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	Yes	BUY	400	11¢	$44	0xc8b4f1…
08-10 23:47:51	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	Yes	BUY	7	11¢	$1	0xc1ddf8…
08-10 23:47:51	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	Yes	BUY	11	11¢	$1	0xbc1547…
08-10 23:47:51	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	Yes	BUY	81	11¢	$9	0xb4b2c5…
08-10 23:47:51	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	Yes	BUY	0	11¢	$0	0xb1b4cf…
08-10 23:47:51	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	Yes	BUY	0	11¢	$0	0x5ed6f8…
08-10 23:47:51	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	Yes	BUY	2	11¢	$0	0x547375…
08-10 23:47:51	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	Yes	BUY	2	11¢	$0	0x10629b…
08-10 23:47:51	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	Yes	BUY	3	11¢	$0	0x04a4d9…
08-10 23:47:49	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	Yes	BUY	126	11¢	$14	0xe186d8…
08-10 23:47:49	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	Yes	BUY	2	11¢	$0	0xdeaa97…
08-10 23:47:49	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	Yes	BUY	139	11¢	$15	0xc7f1f5…
08-10 23:47:49	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	Yes	BUY	0	11¢	$0	0xb4f851…
08-10 23:47:49	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	Yes	BUY	2	11¢	$0	0xa927ca…
08-10 23:47:46	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	Yes	BUY	25	11¢	$3	0x313b3e…
08-10 23:47:43	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	Yes	BUY	79	11¢	$9	0xee555d…
08-10 23:47:43	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	Yes	BUY	20	11¢	$2	0x358f45…
08-10 23:31:21	Iran leadership change by December 31?	No	BUY	10	81¢	$8	0x17f838…
08-10 23:18:46	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	No	SELL	4,000	84¢	$3,360	0x440d61…
08-10 23:14:39	Iran leadership change by December 31?	No	BUY	782	81¢	$634	0x21c374…
08-10 22:19:03	Iran leadership change by December 31?	No	BUY	6	81¢	$4	0x125fc4…
08-10 21:59:55	us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	No	BUY	5,000	8¢	$400	0x2b5788…
08-10 13:09:12	will russia and ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by august 15 2026	Yes	BUY	111	4¢	$4	0x73278c…
08-10 11:56:46	will russia and ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 20260629155934232 846	Yes	BUY	415	21¢	$87	0xb6fc33…
08-10 11:52:33	will russia and ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by august 15 2026	Yes	BUY	168	4¢	$7	0x1fbbaa…
08-10 11:52:19	will russia and ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by august 15 2026	Yes	BUY	198	4¢	$8	0x3f46a1…
08-10 11:19:36	will russia and ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 20260629155934232 846	Yes	BUY	3	21¢	$1	0xc632eb…
08-10 10:22:07	will russia and ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by august 15 2026	Yes	BUY	500	4¢	$20	0x5aa089…
08-10 09:32:57	will russia and ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by august 31 2026 20260629155934232 846	Yes	BUY	82	21¢	$17	0x1ae3c1…
08-10 02:26:28	yabloko effectively banned from 2026 russian elections by september 17 20260807161302974	Yes	BUY	82	59¢	$49	0x206953…
08-10 01:40:12	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	BUY	361	37¢	$134	0x5a5119…
08-10 00:57:27	yabloko effectively banned from 2026 russian elections by september 17 20260807161302974	Yes	SELL	1,500	60¢	$900	0xbea196…
08-10 00:53:40	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	No	BUY	67	83¢	$56	0xc9a9e1…
08-10 00:36:15	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	No	BUY	284	83¢	$235	0x3834b6…
08-10 00:29:40	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	No	BUY	559	83¢	$464	0x1c38dc…
08-10 00:27:33	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	No	BUY	18	83¢	$15	0x0b359b…
08-10 00:24:18	yabloko effectively banned from 2026 russian elections by september 17 20260807161302974	Yes	BUY	439	59¢	$259	0x3d2411…
08-10 00:23:48	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	No	BUY	31	83¢	$26	0x89b252…
08-10 00:11:16	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	No	BUY	71	83¢	$59	0x03974e…
08-10 00:06:48	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	No	BUY	9	83¢	$7	0x1d0077…
08-10 00:06:46	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	No	BUY	6	83¢	$5	0xdcdf3e…
08-10 00:06:34	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	No	BUY	6	83¢	$5	0x8ee9a3…
08-10 00:06:33	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	No	BUY	17	83¢	$14	0xef1c9e…
08-10 00:06:31	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	No	BUY	6	83¢	$5	0x56629c…
08-10 00:06:30	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	No	BUY	6	83¢	$5	0xaea805…
08-10 00:06:30	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	No	BUY	6	83¢	$5	0x8c869d…
08-10 00:06:28	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	No	BUY	6	83¢	$5	0x6e8113…
08-10 00:06:27	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	No	BUY	16	83¢	$13	0xbf74e4…
08-10 00:06:25	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	No	BUY	6	83¢	$5	0xc888eb…
08-10 00:06:25	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	No	BUY	100	83¢	$83	0x99672e…
08-10 00:06:25	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	No	BUY	6	83¢	$5	0x07e541…
08-09 23:45:01	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	No	BUY	300	83¢	$249	0xbddd63…
08-09 23:44:55	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	No	BUY	71	83¢	$59	0x1c2642…
08-09 23:44:49	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	BUY	2	37¢	$1	0xa00c1f…
08-09 23:44:49	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0x85729a…
08-09 23:44:49	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	BUY	4	37¢	$1	0x58b8a9…
08-09 23:44:49	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	BUY	2	37¢	$1	0x510194…
08-09 23:41:49	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	BUY	8	37¢	$3	0x8cfcf7…
08-09 23:32:07	will kai and speed beat the minecraft challenge by august 17 20260807213124706	No	BUY	29	83¢	$24	0x3fd5eb…